the biggest factor in the continuation of WVR air combat is that fights do not start with planes 50 miles apart in an othwise empty airspace.
In addition, missiles were missing their mark in 1980s, not just in the vietnam war. radar missiles are particularily vulnerable to various counter measures. Sure, missiles improved, but so did the countermeasures. IR missiles are currently perhaps overtaking their countermeasures, but that may not last forever. The balance between missiles and countermeasures cannot be simulated. Only a real air war will tell us where it's at - and franckly, I do not want to find out.
Missiles not hitting targets is not in and off itself a measure of their effectiveness. Just like how the number of bullets fired per kill is not a measure of a guns effectiveness. From the 80's onward the proportion of BVR to WVR kills has been on the rise. This was with war where the ROE was nonsensically restrictive, such as in 1991. VID requirements were a thing in some scenarios only because the insane level of superiority of the USAF meant that taking some extra measures to prevent FF actually made sense. In a peer conflict, such luxury would neither be practical or beneficial. And today, IFF is much much much easier.
A Radar missile is NOT easy to spoof it it is properly employed. You have 3 basic ways to beating it: maneuver, chaff, or a notch. Maneuver will only work if you are far enough away. The closer you are and the slower you are, the harder this will be. Once inside RTR range, you would be VERY hard pressed to kinetically defeat a AMRAAM. Chaff rejection on modern Active missiles is extremely good, and can be EASILY upgraded to counter any new threats. Notching is already very difficult even against legacy radars, and when you throw in data links and AESA, nearly impossible.
If you shoot a AMRAAM at someone he does not know you have launched. You will not get a warning until the missile goes pitbull and your RWR picks up the missiles active seeker. At that point the missile is only about 8nm out. You will have very little time to defeat it, and most RWR's only show the compass direction of the threat, so you wont know if its coming from above or below etc. This means that you will have a hard time employing chaff properly, or in sufficient quantities before you are hit.
With a stealth plane the problem gets even more crazy. He sees you first from long range. He uses this SA to stay out any potential sensor coverage and closes in very close. When he shoots, he might be only 10nm away. If you get fired on from a AMRAAM from a mere 10nm, you are basically a dead man.
