August FSO - Against All Odds: Germany 1945

[Spikes]

August FSO - Against All Odds: Germany 1945

http://ahevents.net/index.php/fso-current-next-event

10 August 2018 - FRAME 1
17 August 2018 - FRAME 2
24 August 2018 - FRAME 3

Please review the write-up and update commitment numbers, side preference, and ride preferences by 4 August 2018.

 

[puller]

Anti-Horde updated

Looks interesting...Thanks to the KN guys for all their hard work

[waystin2]

Pigs are updated.  Not liking the alt cap, hard deck, nor the jets especially when only one side is attacking/risking.  Just my .02 cents before we get going. 

See you up there,

Way

[LilMak]

52% to 48% with 30-40% of the Allied force in bombers.

...Against jets and late war bomber killers.

Seems legit.

[perdue3]

52% to 48% with 30-40% of the Allied force in bombers.

...Against jets and late war bomber killers.

Seems legit.

LilMak,

Do you think there should be less bombers? It is difficult to have less than 24 sets considering that is around 15% of the arena. We must have people attacking objects. Thus, the only other option would be to add pilots to the Allies. It is not all that different from any late war setup, aside from the two-sided bit. Luftwaffe had dedicated bomber killers at this time in the war and the Allies had monsters to kill them (P-47M). There are only four jets and they weren't a game breaker in the last event where there were only four. Also, they are worth an entire set of Tu-2's or 2 B-17's.

Simple math to show what we envision:

160 total players = 83 Allies vs. 77 Axis

36 (12 pilots) bombers and 30 escorts on each front vs. 38 Axis fighters on each front. If these numbers actually play out that would be 84 Allies and 76 Axis. Is this too many Axis fighters?

What would you suggest LilMak?

[LilMak]

I’m assuming you’re numbers are based on minimum commitment? I would argue that the Allies will be at minimum or less and the Axis will be near full. Pushing the number to 50/50 or worse.

The Axis will have a 10 fighter advantage (minimum) on either front. And the Allies will be chasing them helplessly as they make lazy passes at bomber formations.

Then you’re forcing the bombers in an Altitude box which favors the Axis rides.

Then there is the fact that defense is, by far, an easier task in FSO. Bombers will be coming in at a known altitude block from a known direction at a known time against the best the Luftwaffe has to kill them. Just about every setup where one side has no offense automatically skews in favor of the team on defense.

I’ve been wrong before. I’m sure I’ll be wrong again but my gut is telling me this has all the hallmarks of a turkey shoot.

[perdue3]

I’m assuming you’re numbers are based on minimum commitment? I would argue that the Allies will be at minimum or less and the Axis will be near full. Pushing the number to 50/50 or worse.

The Axis will have a 10 fighter advantage (minimum) on either front. And the Allies will be chasing them helplessly as they make lazy passes at bomber formations.

Then you’re forcing the bombers in an Altitude box which favors the Axis rides.

Then there is the fact that defense is, by far, an easier task in FSO. Bombers will be coming in at a known altitude block from a known direction at a known time against the best the Luftwaffe has to kill them. Just about every setup where one side has no offense automatically skews in favor of the team on defense.

I’ve been wrong before. I’m sure I’ll be wrong again but my gut is telling me this has all the hallmarks of a turkey shoot.

These are valid points. What is your suggestion?

We have put an alt box on the western front simply because we do not want B-17's noe. This is an accuracy and a playability issue. Also, the alt cap for the bombers is similar to all other events. There is no alt cap on fighters, so being above the Luftwaffe should not be a problem.

Do you suggest a max on Doras or K-4's? Maybe a higher alt cap? Less Axis pilots?

[Devil 505]

I’m assuming you’re numbers are based on minimum commitment? I would argue that the Allies will be at minimum or less and the Axis will be near full. Pushing the number to 50/50 or worse.

The Axis will have a 10 fighter advantage (minimum) on either front. And the Allies will be chasing them helplessly as they make lazy passes at bomber formations.

Not sure why you think this to be the case. The last time we ran a late war bomber campaign(only 3 months ago), the side split was the same at 52/48 favoring the Allies.

This is how the actual player numbers played out:

Allies-Axis
93-76
82-65
86-76

The Allies had at least a 10 pilot advantage every frame. The resulting gameplay and scoring proved to be very even.

[DH367th]

All the admins can do is base their numbers off what we have. Sure it could go south if commitment numbers are not meet. Any FSO can. We will run the first frame and make adjustments as needed.

[LilMak]

Not sure why you think this to be the case. The last time we ran a late war bomber campaign(only 3 months ago), the side split was the same at 52/48 favoring the Allies.

This is how the actual player numbers played out:

Allies-Axis
93-76
82-65
86-76

The Allies had at least a 10 pilot advantage every frame. The resulting gameplay and scoring proved to be very even.

Axis also had offensive objectives.

These are valid points. What is your suggestion?

We have put an alt box on the western front simply because we do not want B-17's noe. This is an accuracy and a playability issue. Also, the alt cap for the bombers is similar to all other events. There is no alt cap on fighters, so being above the Luftwaffe should not be a problem.

Do you suggest a max on Doras or K-4's? Maybe a higher alt cap? Less Axis pilots?

About the best I can come up with is...next time consider a 60/40 split when everything is stacked in the Axis favor. I don’t know about you guys but it’s hard enough getting guys in bombers as it is. When you throw near impossible odds at them, the turnout suffers.

[perdue3]

Axis also had offensive objectives.
About the best I can come up with is...next time consider a 60/40 split when everything is stacked in the Axis favor. I don’t know about you guys but it’s hard enough getting guys in bombers as it is. When you throw near impossible odds at them, the turnout suffers.

The setup Devil is referring to is Wolves Among Sheep. Axis were defense only. Allies had B-17's and B-24's (12 + 12 minimums) with 2 objectives per frame to bomb. Allies won, but the scores were close.

If we did 60/40:

Total of 160 pilots = 96 Allies vs. 64 Axis

If minimums remained, that would be 36 (12 pilots) bombers + 36 escorts vs. 32 Luftwaffe on each front. On each objective, Axis would be outnumbered 2:1 in aircraft and the escorts would outnumber the defenders. For balance, I think that the number of escorts should be slightly less than the number of defenders. If we assume that every escort will occupy one defender, that only leaves a few unoccupied to attack a large number of bombers.

As Dh said, the only numbers we have to go by are commitments and previous frames. We have done that and have come to the estimate of 84 vs. 76 each frame (complete breakdown in my earlier post). But, if most agree that this is an unfair balance, we can adjust. 55:45 would give us 88 vs. 72 if 160 pilots showed up.

Thoughts?

[Vulcan]

52% to 48% with 30-40% of the Allied force in bombers.

...Against jets and late war bomber killers.

Seems legit.

I agree with Lilmak on this. I think this last FSO was heavily weighted in favour of the Axis. G2s and F4s vs 7bs and 39d's with fast bombers at 20k was not a decent matchup.

And this one looks to be a repeat. You have a bunch of very high performance high altitude hard hitting (30mm) LW rides vs half the allies in high performance low altitude rides. The A8 and G14 are the only rides that any allied plane can get an edge on and they're optional. I'm not sure why there is a limit on the P47M, as it's within spitting distance of the 109k (k is faster) up to 25k then it gets better.

[Spikes]

All the admins can do is base their numbers off what we have. Sure it could go south if commitment numbers are not meet. Any FSO can. We will run the first frame and make adjustments as needed.

Pretty much this. The best I can do is guess what the numbers will be based off of commitment. If one side is at or below their minimums, I think that means a few squads need to re-evaluate their commitment numbers. For example, if one squad is 11-15 and they're consistently getting 10 people, it might be wise to drop to 7-10 to better represent what that squad can bring. I have looked at the last couple months' numbers very closely and I have my concerns, but if we do a 60/40 split and the numbers are lopsided the other way, it will be a massacre in the other direction (similar to July, it just happens).

I agree with Lilmak on this. I think this last FSO was heavily weighted in favour of the Axis. G2s and F4s vs 7bs and 39d's with fast bombers at 20k was not a decent matchup.

And this one looks to be a repeat. You have a bunch of very high performance high altitude hard hitting (30mm) LW rides vs half the allies in high performance low altitude rides. The A8 and G14 are the only rides that any allied plane can get an edge on and they're optional. I'm not sure why there is a limit on the P47M, as it's within spitting distance of the 109k (k is faster) up to 25k then it gets better.

I cannot speak for July FSO, maybe the G2s could have been limited or the F4s higher minimum.

The limit on the P-47M is in place for two reasons. One, it was a limited aircraft in the Spring of 1945 to begin with. You had one FG in them and even then they were all grounded in mid-March due to engine problems. For balance issues, they are limited because they are better performing at high altitude than every Axis fighter with the exception of the Ta-152.

The two-fronted idea is a new concept in FSO, and some data was taken from the May FSO with regard to the 8th AF vs. Luftwaffe match-up in an attempt to make it as balanced as possible. For example, the Me 262 did not prove to be a nuisance in May with 4 air frames. Planes like the 190A8 struggle at 25K+ and only get one or two passes at bombers before they are out of the fight. In a couple frames, many of the bombers survived and landed (I witnessed this as I didn't want to fly into 10+ B-17s).

[Devil 505]

I agree with Lilmak on this. I think this last FSO was heavily weighted in favour of the Axis. G2s and F4s vs 7bs and 39d's with fast bombers at 20k was not a decent matchup.

You do realize that the Allies had more kills in frames 1 and 2 last month, right? The Allies seemed to do just fine when they actually showed up to play.

Besides, that was last month and not at all related to this setup. If you had a problem with that design, you should have said something then.

And this one looks to be a repeat.

So I guess you mean that it won't be as unbalanced you think.

You have a bunch of very high performance high altitude hard hitting (30mm) LW rides vs half the allies in high performance low altitude rides. The A8 and G14 are the only rides that any allied plane can get an edge on and they're optional. I'm not sure why there is a limit on the P47M, as it's within spitting distance of the 109k (k is faster) up to 25k then it gets better.

The Allies have plenty of scary fighters of their own: LA-7, Yak-3, P-47M. The rest are not even close to being bad. Not even mediocre, really.

[LilMak]

I’m not trying to throw a wrench in the works. Let’s play it out and see how it goes.

The P47-M is a legitimate fear. It’s the best plane in the set at the altitudes we’re flying. Even the 152 can’t hang with it.

I just ask, if the bombers get wiped out, we revisit the setup and see what we can do. The Axis have a fleet of fighters which can wipe an individual formation of B-17s from the skies in one pass and the numbers to occupy every single escort while still having 10 fighters attack formations unimpeded.