Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY

[Maverick]

Just plain old extensive use of a ventilator in a non covid case raises a significant risk of pneumonia. Add that to the covid and it's going to be a tough situation.

[NatCigg]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-overused-for-covid-19/

interesting article.  doctors questioning common practice. notice strange behavior, near death blood oxygen levels yet the body is not responding that way.  doctors say patients look like altitude sickness, lungs function closer to normal than typical ards.

[puller]

<S> natcigg...good to see you brother...hope all has been well

[guncrasher]

been thinking about this all night.

several have asked basically the same question or statement. how many have underlying conditions, as if to say corona didn't kill them, other conditions did.

did you guys know that aids doesn't kill people? that's a true statement.

anyway, I'm fat, have asthma occasionally,  borderline diabetic, among other things.  so if i get the virus, my chances of having a memorial flight greatly increase.

so you can say well he had underlying conditions and it's true. but even with those underlying conditions I'm still in good shape. so no, those underlying conditions aren't gonna kill me in a few days, it may take years, add Corona virus and it goes down ti hours. so the virus killed me.


semp

[TheBug]

been thinking about this all night.

several have asked basically the same question or statement. how many have underlying conditions, as if to say corona didn't kill them, other conditions did.

did you guys know that aids doesn't kill people? that's a true statement.

anyway, I'm fat, have asthma occasionally,  borderline diabetic, among other things.  so if i get the virus, my chances of having a memorial flight greatly increase.

so you can say well he had underlying conditions and it's true. but even with those underlying conditions I'm still in good shape. so no, those underlying conditions aren't gonna kill me in a few days, it may take years, add Corona virus and it goes down ti hours. so the virus killed me.


semp

Good time to start rectifying those underlying conditions.  As every patriot should.   

[snugar109]

Good time to start rectifying those underlying conditions.  As every patriot should.   

Now is fat an underlying condition or is it food storage for hard times that might arrise? All perspective on that one lol

[CptTrips]

Now is fat an underlying condition or is it food storage for hard times that might arrise? All perspective on that one lol

I just watched this last night.  Some interesting info if you have the time. 

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/video/the-truth-about-fat/

The answer is probably both.  In a brutal and hostile world, it was one of our most ingenious adaptations.  However, it was never designed to function in the insanely resource rich environment we 1st worlders live in today while being bombarded by High-Fructose-Corn Syrup Franken-Food products.  They put that crap in everything nowadays.

 

[SysError]

A 3D model of a person coughing in an indoor environment – how an aerosol cloud travels in the air

[Shuffler]

Now is fat an underlying condition or is it food storage for hard times that might arrise? All perspective on that one lol

Your dice, you throw them. It is considered unhealthy and causes other health issues.

[NatCigg]

using a mask makes some sense, sure would make that 6 feet thing a little more functional.  pretty obvious the world does not have the supplies to do this now. stay calm and just sit there, please.

One thing about co morbidity stats. if 50% of hospital admissions were obese, then 50% were NOT obese. 70% did not have diabetes, 50% did not have hypertension.

Of course its to early to draw any conclusions.  Seems to me, the biggest underlying factor is how will your immune system react to the virus.  if it reacts to cause severe organ stress, co-morbids could have a hard(er) time through the stress.  another big unknown is where else the virus affects the body.  going to take some time to figure it out.  in the mean time, does anyone want to take this placebo?  we are not letting anyone have any medicine until someone steps up and takes this placebo.! 

[NatCigg]

<S> natcigg...good to see you brother...hope all has been well

<S> Buddy.  alive, well, and doing the best i want to.  Hope you and yours are kicking butt! 

[CptTrips]

Looks to me like quarantine bends the curve.





It's certainly expensive, but at least we know we have a lever that can alter the trajectory.  That's better than being completely helpless.

Again, IMHO, these are the criteria we need to achieve to responsibly relax quarantine:

1.  Bend the Curve.  Get control of the spread.  Push it down below our medical systems saturation point. This also includes increasing out medical capability as well.  Complete setup of emergency overlflow facilities in hotels, dorms, convention centers.
2.  Get our testing system unscrewed.  Given our super-power status, our performance so far has been...embarrassing.
3.  PPE.  Medical system needs to have what it needs.  But also, workers you expect to come back need protective gear just like any other OSHA requirement of hardhats, eye protection, etc.
4.  Therapeutics.  A vaccine is a long ways off.  In the meantime, We need some effective treatments that can help other than aspirin for the sick and sedatives for the dying.


#1: We've made good progress.  I don't know if we need to push it down more to get below capacity, but I feel we proven at least one strategy that can bend the curve.
#2: We've made some progress. Apparently there are still swab shortages, reagent shortages, and overload in getting test processed.  But we are slowly getting there. 
#3: Still a big problem.  Not only should our medical system hero's have all they need, but I ought be be able to grab a pack of masks and nitrile gloves at any grocery store.
#4. Some promising green shoots here.  Nothing proven. A lot of work being done along various lines of inquiry.  We're not there yet, but I'm hopeful we will find something.

My guess is they won't have the will to accomplish all these before trying to lift quarantine. My guess is infections and deaths will begin to rise again.  Maybe not as steeply.  People have become a lot more paranoid.  Good.  But I think things will continue to climb and eventually until it gets sufficiently painful and  they will have to capitulate and go into some level of quarantine again.  Maybe in the Fall.

But at least for now, we've made some welcome progress.

[Meatwad]

I see a ton of people wearing masks, and not one of them appear sick. I think they are doing it just to make themselves believe they wont get it if they have a mask on

[CptTrips]

Good news and bad news.

https://reason.com/2020/04/09/preliminary-german-study-shows-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-of-about-0-4-percent/

Around 15 percent had been infected, allowing them to calculate a COVID-19 infection fatality rate of about 0.37 percent.

Basically, the German researchers found that the coronavirus kills about four times as many infected people than seasonal flu viruses do.

My thoughts on that would be:

a.  If our numbers are similar, it means we are no where close to Herd Immunity.  For this infection I've heard number between 70-85% to achieve effective Herd Immunity.
https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/achieving-herd-immunity-with-covid19.html

b.  They didn't mention it is also 2-3x more infectious.   2-3x more infectious and 4x more lethal is still pretty concerning to me.

c.  I can think of at least 3 reasons our CFR number probably won't be as good as Germany's, but I don't want to take the chance of invoking Hitech's rules.

I'd consider Germany and S. Korea outcomes as the best possible outcomes if you do almost everything right.  I suspect our numbers are going to look a lot more like Italy before it's over.

 



 

[CptTrips]

I see a ton of people wearing masks, and not one of them appear sick. I think they are doing it just to make themselves believe they wont get it if they have a mask on

1.  Masks do provide some added protection from inhaling airborne particles and this virus has been proven to be able to stay suspended in the air (from coughing, sneezing, or just breathing) for up to an hour and be carried through ventilation systems.
 
2.  One of the biggest problems with this virus is that there seems to be a 2-5 day asymptomatic period where you are infected and infectious before you even run a temperature or feel the symptoms.  By the time you start feeling sick (or looking sick), you've probably already been walking around infecting everyone around you for a week without knowing it.

For both reasons, everyone should be wearing masks anytime they are out in public whether they think they are sick yet or not.  In fact, if they are feeling sick, don't even go out in public at all!