Author Topic: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY  (Read 23341 times)

Offline Eagler

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #240 on: April 17, 2020, 12:09:28 PM »
Correct Trips

The economy will not come back instantly regardless of how long we wait

With the infections curve going down we need to try to reopen ASAP

If new cases spike in some areas those areas make the needed changes for their areas

You can't keep it all closed down any longer than minimally needed

Like the other wars the gov jumps into - they never seem to have a viable exit plan

Eagler
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Offline Eagler

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #241 on: April 17, 2020, 12:31:36 PM »
As the death count is invalid as hospitals are counting deaths as virus caused death when that is not necessarily the case and the fact everyone will never be tested - what is the magic number we are supposed to hit before the all clear can be sounded?

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Offline CptTrips

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #242 on: April 17, 2020, 12:34:17 PM »
The economy will not come back instantly regardless of how long we wait

Therefore there is not much economic benefit in lifting quarantine before we are ready.

With the infections curve going down we need to try to reopen ASAP

ASAP means "As soon as possible".  In this context it should be redefined as "As soon as prudent".   I've outlined elsewhere exit criteria I think we should achieve before easy restrictions (if you're wanting to do it responsibly).  If you can achieve those next week, I say start lifting the restrictions next week.  If it takes you three weeks, then I say start lifting restrictions in three weeks.

If you lift the restrictions prematurely, all you do is waste the very expensive flattening of the curve we have already purchased.  We have flattened the new cases curve at great cost.  Lets make good use of that.  Let's get our money's worth.   

You can't keep it all closed down any longer than minimally needed

Exactly what I've said.  And I've enumerate the exit conditions I think define "minimally needed".

Like the other wars the gov jumps into - they never seem to have a viable exit plan

The government didn't choose to jump into this war.  The virus reaching our shores was inevitable and involuntary.  The "plan" for the quarantine has always been to slow the spread long enough for us to spool up our readiness and infrastructure so we can address the threat in a controlled, responsible manner.  If anything, we did not "jump" into this war fast enough.  That would have made things easier for us.

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Offline CptTrips

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #243 on: April 17, 2020, 12:38:06 PM »
As the death count is invalid as hospitals are counting deaths as virus caused death when that is not necessarily the case


If anything, the number of Covid-19 deaths are under-counted. 
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-undercount.html


How many American deaths would be too many for you?  What's the magic number?

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Offline CptTrips

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #244 on: April 17, 2020, 12:45:11 PM »

Quote
there's a growing trend on social media that accuses doctors of saying all deaths are related to the virus to make that official number higher than it should be. 

“I’ve heard of people wondering if COVID-19 is being reported as the cause of death," Dr. Rachel Franklin with OU Med said.  "All I can really tell you is the way causes of death are reported.”

There have been memes and other social media posts claiming the numbers are being exaggerated.

One post saying they were told all "drug overdoses, heart attacks, and other deaths" will be classified as COVID-19.

Healthcare officials say that couldn't be further from the truth. 

https://kfor.com/news/local/doctors-work-to-debunk-myth-that-coronavirus-death-tolls-are-a-hoax/
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Offline Eagler

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #245 on: April 17, 2020, 12:55:55 PM »
If relief $$$ are tied to virus death counts there will be inflated numbers

Eagler
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Offline hitech

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #246 on: April 17, 2020, 12:57:00 PM »
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/politics/republican-governors-stay-at-home-coronavirus/index.html

From the same article.

Quote
The remaining states, North Dakota, Utah and Wyoming each saw an increase in cases, but more in line with other places that have stay-at-home orders.

HiTech

Offline CptTrips

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #247 on: April 17, 2020, 01:12:32 PM »
From the same article.

Yes.  Of the 8 states refusing to quarantine,  5 have shown significant increases and 3 have not..yet.  5:3.  I consider that pretty compelling evidence.

There are less people living in the entire state of North Dakota than live in the city of Ft. Worth.  They are not particularly representative of the rest of the country, but they too will spike. It might take a little longer given their minuscule population and density.  But they'll eventually get it at their Walmarts or church services, or hanging out with the good ole boys at the county Dairy Queen.


Have you given up on your Sweden argument?   ;)
 

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Offline CptTrips

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #248 on: April 17, 2020, 01:43:03 PM »
Sometimes you have to count to 11.

You know, I realize I'm a bit obsessive-compulsive.  I can drive myself crazy if I feel someone is being obtuse.  I have a friend who is a nice guy that is in to all kinds of internet conspiracy stuff.   I know better to hang out with him in situations where the topic might come up because neither one of us will stop until fists fly.   :rofl

So I'm out for a while.  Hope you guys all make to the other side of this. 

Alpha Mike Foxtrot.

(p.s. for those who have my email, always feel free to contact me that way if you need anything like mission related.)



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Offline SysError

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #249 on: April 17, 2020, 03:01:39 PM »
...

So I'm out for a while.  Hope you guys all make to the other side of this. 

Alpha Mike Foxtrot.


I missed this.  Take care and stay safe.
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Offline SysError

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #250 on: April 17, 2020, 05:22:48 PM »
More reasons to use any type of mask:

"Visualizing Speech-Generated Oral Fluid Droplets with Laser Light Scattering"

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2007800?query=featured_home


Also goes over the impact of loudness in speech.....  :evil:

« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 05:24:58 PM by SysError »
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Offline NatCigg

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #251 on: April 18, 2020, 03:37:37 PM »
Simple you show him video of crash test dummy's and the g load data. Then it is no longer opinion/conjecture. Up until then it is.

The point is you look at data with and with out the item you are trying to test, like South Dakota and Sweden.

What you don't do is blindly assume that confining people to their house , is better then other forms of prevention.

HiTech

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They keep confirmed cases in a treatment center. not, go home spread it in your house and call if you think you will die.




Offline AKKuya

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #252 on: April 18, 2020, 09:12:22 PM »
Florida governor opened up the beaches and hundreds to thousands around the state flocked to them.  This will be a test to see if people can resume being near each other.  If the infection rates spike and more people die, then re-opening the country will most likely fail.
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Offline Spikes

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #253 on: April 18, 2020, 09:14:34 PM »
Florida governor opened up the beaches and hundreds to thousands around the state flocked to them.  This will be a test to see if people can resume being near each other.  If the infection rates spike and more people die, then re-opening the country will most likely fail.
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Offline Busher

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #254 on: April 18, 2020, 09:52:00 PM »
If the infection rates spike and more people die...........

I for one believe this is a certainty.
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