One Final Try

[CptTrips]

October 28th, 2008

Thank you. 

[Lusche]

Causality or correlation?

[CptTrips]

Causality or correlation?

I agree with what you've said in the past, there is probably no one thing that caused the decline. 

That is an amazingly close correlation though.  And it would explain why no release/code change correlated to the start of the decline.  It didn't represent anything that would show up in a release changes file.  Simply promise abandoned.

I've said in the past, from my personal experience and those of players I knew back then, there was a definite sense of a deflating tire when that was announced.  Even back then the Air Warrior Plus design was getting really long in the tooth and ToD promised something new and exiting and I think there were a few holding on by their finger nails to see if something ground-breaking would pan out.  I remember that being my emotional reaction.

I had said in the past, that for me is when I felt the energy start to drain out of the community.  I just didn't have this graph to see it so compellingly.

But it could also just be amazing coincidence.



Lusche, you are the institutional memory for this community. 

[DmonSlyr]

I agree with what you've said in the past, there is probably no one thing that caused the decline. 

That is an amazingly close correlation though.  And it would explain why no release/code change correlated to the start of the decline.  It didn't represent anything that would show up in a release changes file.  Simply promise abandoned.

I've said in the past, from my personal experience and those of players I knew back then, there was a definite sense of a deflating tire when that was announced.  Even back then the Air Warrior Plus design was getting really long in the tooth and ToD promised something new and exiting and I think there were a few holding on by their finger nails to see if something ground-breaking would pan out.  I remember that being my emotional reaction.

I had said in the past, that for me is when I felt the energy start to drain out of the community.  I just didn't have this graph to see it so compellingly.

But it could also just be amazing coincidence.



Lusche, you are the institutional memory for this community.

Again, though. That was right about the time the arenas were split. That was when squads couldn't fly with each other and they began to go play other games with their squad mates. This lead to long time squads leaving thus causing a big decline. Then the the chain reaction began of less players equals smaller fights which lead to less players. I do believe the 12 hours rule had an impact, but none as big as the arena split. I believe ToD was just a side effect disappointment, but I don't think it had a major impact.

[Lusche]

Again, though. That was right about the time the arenas were split. That was when squads couldn't fly with each other and they began to go play other game with their squad mates. This lead to long time squads leaving thus causing a big decline

The arena split was in late 2006. After that, the numbers soared high to absolute record levels, the drop started more than 2 years after the split.

[DmonSlyr]

The arena split was in late 2006. After that, the numbers soared high to absolute record levels, the drop started more than 2 years after the split.

You sure about that? I thought it was a bit later? When in 2006? #s were already on the way up tho. It took a minute for the influx to level off, then once one arena was full and players couldn't fly with their squads, and had to fly in the other arena, they were pissed. It took a minute but squads got so mad about it after a while that they ended up leaving.

[CptTrips]

Again, though. That was right about the time the arenas were split. That was when squads couldn't fly with each other and they began to go play other games with their squad mates. This lead to long time squads leaving thus causing a big decline. Then the the chain reaction began of less players equals smaller fights which lead to less players. I do believe the 12 hours rule had an impact, but none as big as the arena split. I believe ToD was just a side effect disappointment, but I don't think it had a major impact.

Nope.  I was still here during the arena split.

After than I was gone but was following ToD/CT news and planning to start again when that was released.  It was a gut punch when the news that it was indefinitely postponed was dropped.  "Indefinitely postponed" in corporate speak means "canceled".

I remember it quite a while between those events.


Lol I remember being livid about the arena split though.  I remember thinking, "No way am I getting shunted off to an arena with only 250 players!  That's not what I'm paying for!  I'm paying for a MASSIVELY multi-player game!"   Oh if I only knew how good we had it.   


[Edit]
Just saw Lusche's reply.  I don't remember the date, but did you really just say, "Are you sure about that date?" to Lusche?   

It was definitely a reasonably amount of time separating them.

I don't suppose you could rerun that chart from mid Oct.  I'd buy you a steak and a beer if you ever come to Dallas. 

[Lusche]

You sure about that? I thought it was a bit later? When in 2006?

The Great Arena Split happened in Tour 80, Wednesday September the 13th 2006

[Monster0]

Imo a base fee would make sense instead of $14.99 a month. I've also poured a little bit of cash into the game. Well worth it during that time. Is it worth it now? No. But I'm willing to pay a base fee to use early war planes for example.

[Lusche]

did you really just say, "Are you sure about that date?" to Lusche? 

That Lusche guy can err and has been wrong before. 

[DmonSlyr]

The Great Arena Split happened in Tour 80, Wednesday September the 13th 2006

Could have sworn it was later than that..I just remember not a lot of happy squads .during this time. Perhaps reading forum posts just before your graph there might give us a good indication of displeasure in the players? Just a thought.

TBF, I left the game for university starting late 09 to 13, so I guess the real blame is all on me.   

[Eagler]

Maybe it had something to do with most people losing 50% of their net worth in 2009

Eagler

[CptTrips]

Maybe it had something to do with most people losing 50% of their net worth in 2009

Eagler

Sure.  But if they loved the game and thought it had a great future they would have come back when their economic situation had improved.  As people love to say, "It's only 15$".  They kept leaving after the Great Recession was over, and never came back in significant numbers.

And people were also still really annoyed at the arena split as DemonSlayer said.  I remember that too.  But that started two years before.  Doesn't seem like the proximate cause, but probably didn't help.

Personally, I felt like the sense of "destiny" for the game started declining after they canceled ToD.  By selection bias, a lot of the people here now may not have cared.  That's why they are still here.  But maybe a lot of the lost player in the graph felt differently.

It's why I didn't come back until WWI arena came out.  But I was expecting a Dawn of Aces type game.  When I realized the only plans they had for it were a furball area, I left again.

$0.02.

[hazmatt]

92 months ago, Tour 168, Tu-2.

7.6 years?

[The Fugitive]

7.6 years?

Yup, but I think the 38 update came after that, but not by much.