2007 Redeux?

[CptTrips]

It will be too hard to get a real read on inflation until after the holiday retail binge. 

If Inflation begins to drop off meaningfully by spring then the Fed will decide it can keep on inflating the bubble. 

That doesn't change the outcome, just delays the inevitable and creates a bigger mess when it crashes.  Hopefully on someone else's watch (says Fed Chairs and Pols of ALL parties!) 

But if inflation doesn't come to heel, Fed has no choice.  They'll prefer to reduce the largely hidden QE first to see if they can get lucky.  If that doesn't quickly work they'll have to raise the very visible rates.  They can't afford to lose credibility on inflation.  Most of their actual power is all based on belief and confidence they have a handle on things.


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/24/federal-reserve-releases-minutes-from-its-november-meeting.html

[Eagler]

Fed is stopping their free money to the market ...supposed to be complete by next spring..we will see.

To curb inflation the fed has to raise interest rates slowly to a decent level.

They say that will kill the market as it was built on near zero interest money for years now

The covid crash in spring of 2020 was a perfect time to correct the market IMO but being election year no one was going to let that pain play out..

So they printed money out of thin air which really didn't do anything but make the situation worse..just kicking the can some more

Eagler

[CptTrips]

Causes versus Triggers

We should distinguish between causes and triggers here. If you roll a wheelbarrow of dynamite into a crowd of fire jugglers, there’s not much chance things will end well. The cause of the inevitable wreckage is the dynamite, but the trigger is the guy who drops his torch. Likewise, once extreme valuations are established as a result of yield-seeking speculation that is enabled (1997-2000), encouraged (2004-2007), or actively promoted (2010-2014) by the Federal Reserve, an eventual collapse is inevitable. By starving investors of safe return, activist Fed policy has promoted repeated valuation bubbles, and inevitable collapses, in risky assets. On the basis of valuation measures having the strongest correlation with actual subsequent market returns, we fully expect the S&P 500 to decline by 40-55% over the completion of the current market cycle. The only uncertainty has been the triggers.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc150824.htm

That was from 2015 so yeah, it's impossible to estimate when the shoe finally drops.  But the barrels of dynamite have been getting stacked since 2009 so things at this scale don't happen in weeks/months.  Massive economics can take years to play out long-term business cycles (not merely seasonal cycles).  But historically, it does eventually happen.  And historically it will catch 99% of the investors by surprise and they'll all say later that there was no way *such-n-such* could have been predicted.  Which is true.  That is the nature of Black Swans.  But if you notice you are standing around barrels of dynamite watching fire jugglers perform their market antics, you might want to start stepping back a little to a safe distance.  It's sure to end in tears eventually. 


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/new-coronavirus-variant-a-serious-concern-in-south-africa/ar-AAR7yUH

Is the new variant the trigger that will knock over the house of cards?  (Not convinced yet...) No way to tell if this is the torch that finally drops in barrel.  It could be next years inflation.  It could be political violence/assassination.  It could be Russia rolling into Ukraine or Panda-Boy making a dash for Taiwan.  Or maybe some large firms bankruptcy like Enron. 

Or they maybe get away with inflating the bubble a year or two more.  But the longer it goes on, the more likely you are to the end rather than the beginning.  The particular random trigger is just the excuse for the bubble to pop.  The end result was already baked into the cake by the years of inflating the bubble. 

[Eagler]

Variant smariant...lets hope we all don't get the clot shot..how would they continue to use this excuse...oh yeah booster shaming then?

What if the news is created to cover the markets?

It is not the market reacting to so called news but news setup to cover the coming movement in the markets by the ones making the real money from it..

PS black Friday is a bust today as they started it months ago....

Did anyone see a shortage of turkeys we were all warned about?

Publix here is overflowing with them..

Eagler

[Chris79]

Variant smariant...lets hope we all don't get the clot shot..how would they continue to use this excuse...oh yeah booster shaming then?

What if the news is created to cover the markets?

It is not the market reacting to so called news but news setup to cover the coming movement in the markets by the ones making the real money from it..

PS black Friday is a bust today as they started it months ago....

Did anyone see a shortage of turkeys we were all warned about?

Publix here is overflowing with them..

Eagler

Florida man?

[Eagler]

Publix gave it away

Lived in many places in country and out but have been in west central Florida since 83

From the looks of things elsewhere it seems to be a great place to be these days...

Eagler

[Chris79]

<——-Sarasota

[Meatwad]

No shortages of turkey here, in fact there is a ton of them leftover after thursday

[guncrasher]

No shortages of turkey here, in fact there is a ton of them leftover after thursday

still plenty around here. just went shopping, funny thing, they only had a few boxes left of Jimmy Dean pree made breakfast. now that's a crime.

semp

[Eagler]

Omicron = moronic

As in moronic response to what looks like the lightest variant yet...please read the info posted by the south African doctor who discovered it...not what the panicked faces on cnn are screeching..

Or maybe it is just the latest excuse they will use to keep interest rates near zero and print even more money..to futher inflate the bubble and kick the can down the road some more..they are even reporting that now ..less than a week after it was 1st discovered..not too suspicious.

Of course after the drop happening now...heck maybe even a lockdown but be sure to get "boosted" ... or be dammed by society..

Man they have the perfect boogie man with this thing...terrorism was way harder to keep the fear up ... and it didn't divide us so nicely and pit us against each other as they need us to be.

Eagler

[CptTrips]

Well, the party may not be officially over yet, but I get the feeling people are being handed their hat and coat.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/30/powell-says-fed-will-discuss-speeding-up-bond-buying-taper-at-december-meeting.html

[guncrasher]

Omicron = moronic

As in moronic response to what looks like the lightest variant yet...please read the info posted by the south African doctor who discovered it...not what the panicked faces on cnn are screeching..

Or maybe it is just the latest excuse they will use to keep interest rates near zero and print even more money..to futher inflate the bubble and kick the can down the road some more..they are even reporting that now ..less than a week after it was 1st discovered..not too suspicious.

Of course after the drop happening now...heck maybe even a lockdown but be sure to get "boosted" ... or be dammed by society..

Man they have the perfect boogie man with this thing...terrorism was way harder to keep the fear up ... and it didn't divide us so nicely and pit us against each other as they need us to be.

Eagler

he said the symptoms are very mild. nobody has been sent to the hospital. just a sore body, headache and scratchy throat.

it was just discovered a few days ago, possibly been around for a while. who knows what it may do.

all my brothers and sisters got one of the variants. my nieces and nephews too. most of my friends did too. a couple died.

in our family the most affected was my wife, 1 nephew and 1 niece have about 60% lung capacity.  I am the only one that had very mild symptoms, mostly a light headache and got tired easily.

one of my brothers is a big antivaxx, anti mask, whatever. he went on a big rant about how it isn't so bad, my nephew was really upset. my wife just yelled eff uu. she doesn't talk like that.

almost 800,000 dead, that's about 1 in 500 just in this country.  hundreds of thousands or maybe millions are in some degree disabled or affected for life.

and yet there's other people who think it's not a big deal. we should act as if nothing is happening.

can't close the country forever, but somewhere in the middle would go a long way.

semp

[Guppy35]

Maybe you should look at this from the Evangelical Right.  You know those folks who suggested Hurricane Katrina was sent to New Orleans to punish certain groups they don't like, or those who suggested the California fires were there punishment from on high?  Maybe this is the man upstairs message that greed, money, quests for more power etc is wrong and he's going to keep it going until the world figures out, wait for it, that the "love they neighbor as thyself" bit, greatest commandment, is what we should be doing instead of hating everyone else and trying to have power and control them?

Maybe this is the message that we better figure it out that the better we take care of each other, the better benefit to the world overall?  This old hate thy neighbor, blame everyone else for it bit, is getting really old.

I get real tired of the never ending conspiracy theories. 

[TequilaChaser]

Interesting thread....

The first stock bursting bubble, hit me hard back around 1999/2000, I was able to recover pretty quickly by 2003....

Stayed in the stocks until 2009, and causes and sold out, never to return....

Since before my parents 1st year married they started collecting coins,  silver and gold...the tradition of doing this is still going with me and my kids and my Sister and some of hers.....

Simple reason why we are stock piling as much as we can get our hands on.... there's going to come a time where some people will accept help from 1 of the 4 dynasties (government,  financial,  education,  religion).... if you bow a knee and accept the help....you will think all is going to be alright....but that is actually falsehood

The 90% silver coins,  or silver bullion and gold bullion is going to be needed to barter with...

As for Marshall Law, if you have kept up with the US Government/ Congress....you should already know that the use of Marshall Law and FEMA mandate was updated and authorized in an Excutive Order as well as a bill that passed back in the mid to late 1980s....

Nothing new under the sun and history always repeats itself!

Heads up- The Big Brother is starting to watch those people stacking silver and gold....if you are one of those people who do that,  you need to be 7 moves ahead and find ways to keep stacking without getting your name on a watch list....

Follow your own beliefs

TC

[TequilaChaser]

Maybe you should look at this from the Evangelical Right.  You know those folks who suggested Hurricane Katrina was sent to New Orleans to punish certain groups they don't like, or those who suggested the California fires were there punishment from on high?  Maybe this is the man upstairs message that greed, money, quests for more power etc is wrong and he's going to keep it going until the world figures out, wait for it, that the "love they neighbor as thyself" bit, greatest commandment, is what we should be doing instead of hating everyone else and trying to have power and control them?

Maybe this is the message that we better figure it out that the better we take care of each other, the better benefit to the world overall?  This old hate thy neighbor, blame everyone else for it bit, is getting really old.

I get real tired of the never ending conspiracy theories. 

Love your reply,  Dan!