https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527
If I had to bet based on what I've read so far...
Ground is freezing hard now allowing them to accelerate pushing forces into the front lines and pre-positioned forward locations.
They have probably agreed not jump off until after the Beijing Olympics to not embarrass the Chinese who have probably promised them what ever economic aid and trade needed to offset Western sanctions.
That gives Putin two final months to try and scare the West into Neville Chamberlain-like concessions. That will of course fail. Their demands are ludicrous and even Putin doesn't think there is any chance getting that lucky. But it's worth a roll of the dice while he is waiting for the closing Olympic ceremonies.
So I'd expect tanks to roll the very end of Feb, maybe first week of Mar. My guess is that they would think they could make a blitzkrieg dash to take the eastern half of the Ukraine before muddy season sets in. Then hunker down and reinforce. By the time ground dries and hardens again, it's a done deal. Impossible to push them back out short of nuclear war. We won't go that far for poor Ukraine. Sorry. We'll slam them with sanctions and China will pour in support to offset. I don't get the feeling Putin is bluffing or that NATO will give him personal veto power over NATO membership.
China probably wouldn't move on Taiwan until winter 2022. After the Communist Congress. As soon as Panda-boy secures his next 5-year mandate, he has a free hand to act. And Russia will publicly support them, at least with propaganda and UN veto.
Sadly, I think Taiwan is another Wake Island. It is undefendable. It's too far into China's backyard, and too easily covered by Chinese land-based assets. We shouldn't put any U.S. forces within reach of those land-based weapons. I hope we are realistically communicating the the Taiwanese how far we will and won't go in helping them. You can't sink a continent, but you can sink aircraft carriers.
Our forces should be kept at more defensible position. Japan, Korea, Philippines, Australia. If China wants to expand further, they'll have to stick their necks out and then we'll have the positional advantage to make it hurt. Those southern most man-made islands look like juicy targets.
2022 is going to be another interesting year I'm afraid. Hope I'm completely wrong though.
