The Great Unwinding

[CptTrips]

Thank God I don't give a frenchmans fuq about the market. Own my Home (29 Acres), own 3 vehicles of which none rely on any form of equipment I can't repair on my own and have no debt. Sorry to you sucked that are slaves to the system cuz you only got ur own azzes to worry about. Oh and retirement?! Don't need it if you ain't retarded. Throw a nickle in the grass and you'll be saved.

Well, if you have no stock investments then I don't see why this thread would interest you.  But thanks for stopping by.


By the by, I have an apartment in town for work, but I also have 15 acres of rural land in the boonies.  I carved in my own road.   I built two cabins and an observatory from scratch with my own hands, mostly by myself.  I can repair most mechanical things.  I can weld a little.  When I fully retire out there I plan on building chicken runs and an aquaponics system.  I might runs some goats, but cattle are a little more than I want to deal with.  Besides the way my land is situated it a perfect funnel for deer to cross my land.  I can harvest those.  Millions of wild cotton tail.  Even some wild hog.  But I have to wait to be out there full time to have animals.

But I also have 401k's from decades of working in the tech industry.  A lot of that money was free from company match and stock options.  Why would I turn that down free money and the chance to see that money grow tax free for 30 years.  But those investments are a responsibility to manage prudently and I'd prefer to not see it vanish through lazyness not to watch the markets carefully and make sure what is mine isn't wiped out in periodic waves of mass insanity.  I go long periods in healthy markets not paying much attention to the accounts only rebalancing yearly.  But in times of high risk or generational inflection points (especially so close to retiring from my career), I have to pull on my big boy pants and manage my assets.  Most everyone calling themselves a financial advisor I realize are drooling idiots after talking to them for 10 minutes so I manage my own assets.

Would you never check your vehicle oil, hydraulic fluid, tire pressure or do routine maintenance to protect your equipment?  Investments are no different.  If you want valuable things you own to last, you have to take responsibility to maintain them.

Besides You might find before this is all over, that no man is as much an island as you think you are.

In any case.  Uhhh, thanks for your feedback.

[Arlo]

Well, if you have no stock investments then I don't see why this thread would interest you.  But thanks for stopping by.


By the by, I have an apartment in town for work, but I also have 15 acres of rural land in the boonies.  I carved in my own road.   I built two cabins and an observatory from scratch with my own hands, mostly by myself.  I can repair most mechanical things.  I can weld a little.  When I fully retire out there I plan on building chicken runs and an aquaponics system.  I might runs some goats, but cattle are a little more than I want to deal with.  Besides the way my land is situated it a perfect funnel for deer to cross my land.  I can harvest those.  Millions of wild cotton tail.  Even some wild hog.  But I have to wait to be out there full time to have animals.

But I also have 401k's from decades of working in the tech industry.  A lot of that money was free from company match and stock options.  Why would I turn that down free money and the chance to see that money grow tax free for 30 years.  But those investments are a responsibility to manage prudently and I'd prefer to not see it vanish through lazyness not to watch the markets carefully and make sure what is mine isn't wiped out in periodic waves of mass insanity.  I go long periods in healthy markets not paying much attention to the accounts only rebalancing yearly.  But in times of high risk or generational inflection points (especially so close to retiring from my career), I have to pull on my big boy pants and manage my assets.  Most everyone calling themselves a financial advisor I realize are drooling idiots after talking to them for 10 minutes so I manage my own assets.

Would you never check your vehicle oil, hydraulic fluid, tire pressure or do routine maintenance to protect your equipment?  Investments are no different.  If you want valuable things you own to last, you have to take responsibility to maintain them.

Besides You might find before this is all over, that no man is as much an island as you think you are.

In any case.  Uhhh, thanks for your feedback.

Both of you have very good reasons to have a safe and secure (as well as rewarding) future. My wife and I live a very rudimentary and spartan existence, comparatively.

[Peanut1]

Please calm down. No matter how much faith you have in your homestead independence it won't do you much good if you stress yourself to death over other's not being as smart or skilled as you in that regard. 

I'm likely one of the dumbest people you would ever meet when it comes to going with the pattern of the grain....But I'm very confident that shear hardwork and the luck of a British monk is the reason my family and  I lead a stress less life that many people in my community benefit from.

[Peanut1]

Well, if you have no stock investments then I don't see why this thread would interest you.  But thanks for stopping by.


By the by, I have an apartment in town for work, but I also have 15 acres of rural land in the boonies.  I carved in my own road.   I built two cabins and an observatory from scratch with my own hands, mostly by myself.  I can repair most mechanical things.  I can weld a little.  When I fully retire out there I plan on building chicken runs and an aquaponics system.  I might runs some goats, but cattle are a little more than I want to deal with.  Besides the way my land is situated it a perfect funnel for deer to cross my land.  I can harvest those.  Millions of wild cotton tail.  Even some wild hog.  But I have to wait to be out there full time to have animals.

But I also have 401k's from decades of working in the tech industry.  A lot of that money was free from company match and stock options.  Why would I turn that down free money and the chance to see that money grow tax free for 30 years.  But those investments are a responsibility to manage prudently and I'd prefer to not see it vanish through lazyness not to watch the markets carefully and make sure what is mine isn't wiped out in periodic waves of mass insanity.  I go long periods in healthy markets not paying much attention to the accounts only rebalancing yearly.  But in times of high risk or generational inflection points (especially so close to retiring from my career), I have to pull on my big boy pants and manage my assets.  Most everyone calling themselves a financial advisor I realize are drooling idiots after talking to them for 10 minutes so I manage my own assets.

Would you never check your vehicle oil, hydraulic fluid, tire pressure or do routine maintenance to protect your equipment?  Investments are no different.  If you want valuable things you own to last, you have to take responsibility to maintain them.

Besides You might find before this is all over, that no man is as much an island as you think you are.

In any case.  Uhhh, thanks for your feedback.

I'm glad you have a primitive backup route. That is what humans need. It's is not possible to fail when you are in complete control of your situation. I put 6 years of my life into working for a World Class ski resort with the best retirement plan available to anybody in my area. The day I quit that ratrace I pulled out every cent that was in it and donated it to the world central kitchen. Dumb move.... Yup! But I don't want my greasy money in the filthy pockets of sum fuqtard in the sears tower.

[Shuffler]

We also have a group that includes doctors, triage nurses, water, food supplies, and the ability to protect those supplies. The list is far greater, but you get the point.

Just like carrying. Best to be prepared and not need it. Though things are looking pretty bleak lately.

[Eagler]

S&P 500 at 2400 is the point where the fed will reverse again and start lowering interest rates and with it another round of QE to save the country from falling into a great depression ...thus starting the next bubble round...IMHO

It's about the true value of any of it without the over a decade of free money pumping it up

Between now and then things should get very interesting

Eagler

[Maverick]

I thought it was interesting when the news hit that bit coin went down about 50%. You used to hear all kinds of folks talking about how great it was / is but now it's pretty much crickets. I don't have any, just curious about it over time.

[-gg-]

Own and operate a market garden/homestead as well as a custom Lumber business. I have enough parts on hand for 2 of my vehicles to last me a lifetime. As well as a small scale Oil distillery that I can make more than enough deisle to operate any of my equipment as much as necessary. If you are paper pusher in a office you have nothing to provide anybody when watermelon hits the fan. I have enough that people are in need of that no matter the state of currency I will be just fine. I regularly go 4-6 months without stepping foot off of my land.

That's really great. I envy you!

I'm trying to save as much as I can so I can but land and set anything on it that I want. Baby steps for me but that's my dream.

[-gg-]

Well, if you have no stock investments then I don't see why this thread would interest you.  But thanks for stopping by.


By the by, I have an apartment in town for work, but I also have 15 acres of rural land in the boonies.  I carved in my own road.   I built two cabins and an observatory from scratch with my own hands, mostly by myself.  I can repair most mechanical things.  I can weld a little.  When I fully retire out there I plan on building chicken runs and an aquaponics system.  I might runs some goats, but cattle are a little more than I want to deal with.  Besides the way my land is situated it a perfect funnel for deer to cross my land.  I can harvest those.  Millions of wild cotton tail.  Even some wild hog.  But I have to wait to be out there full time to have animals.

But I also have 401k's from decades of working in the tech industry.  A lot of that money was free from company match and stock options.  Why would I turn that down free money and the chance to see that money grow tax free for 30 years.  But those investments are a responsibility to manage prudently and I'd prefer to not see it vanish through lazyness not to watch the markets carefully and make sure what is mine isn't wiped out in periodic waves of mass insanity.  I go long periods in healthy markets not paying much attention to the accounts only rebalancing yearly.  But in times of high risk or generational inflection points (especially so close to retiring from my career), I have to pull on my big boy pants and manage my assets.  Most everyone calling themselves a financial advisor I realize are drooling idiots after talking to them for 10 minutes so I manage my own assets.

Would you never check your vehicle oil, hydraulic fluid, tire pressure or do routine maintenance to protect your equipment?  Investments are no different.  If you want valuable things you own to last, you have to take responsibility to maintain them.

Besides You might find before this is all over, that no man is as much an island as you think you are.

In any case.  Uhhh, thanks for your feedback.

That's really great. You're set up very well.

[-gg-]

I thought it was interesting when the news hit that bit coin went down about 50%. You used to hear all kinds of folks talking about how great it was / is but now it's pretty much crickets. I don't have any, just curious about it over time.

I never bought any either. Well, a little tiny amount of Doge coin back when it first came out, but basically nothing. Never understood or trusted any type of crypto. I still don't

[CptTrips]

I thought it was interesting when the news hit that bit coin went down about 50%. You used to hear all kinds of folks talking about how great it was / is but now it's pretty much crickets. I don't have any, just curious about it over time.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dutch_tulip_bulb_market_bubble.asp

Block-chain as an algorithms is a useful pattern.  The existing calculated tokens have some value.  If you made a competing algorithm (not that hard)  to use for ....something, you would have to calculate all those tokens which by design takes time and effort.  So have pre-computed tokens would made a system quicker to setup and seed with tokens on day one.  That has some value for that work already done that is it built from.  So like a tulip bulb does have a value ($0.50?) it is no where near what an out of control mania whipped it up ($700k???) to in the example above. 


A Bitcoin has some value.  It is a pre-calculated token of a decent crypto algorithm.  I can think of possible commercial uses.  Not in any real non-Fed distorted reality is it anywhere near the value of where it is now and certainly not where a lot of strange people have bought in at and put in their whole life savings.  I honestly predict in 2 years you'll be reading about the epidemic of suicides among Bitcoin investors.  A lot of people are going to lose everything.  A lot of these are young people with families.  Sad.

I could even see it as a mechanism for transferring a digital representation of real sovereign money like a digital debit card.  But it is only a bucket to transfer sovereign money in, and not in and of itself a currency nor ever will be.  (Well I think one country tried it. I don't think it has gone well.)

If I can't pay my taxes with it, it ain't money.

[Brooke]

To me, many aspects of the world seem way out of whack.

But just focusing on financial conditions, I'm getting the feeling we are in for a huge crash (stocks, bonds, real estate cut in half), then the Fed will print $100 trillion.  (But maybe the Fed prints the $100 trillion before the full crash plays out.)

I think $100 trillion will be printed at some point because the government can't afford to pay interest on debt if interest rates go up on government debt.  So it will need the Fed to print money to buy Federal debt (debt monetization).  That will give the government cash to pay interest, and it will push interest rates down.  The government can only have interest rates higher for a short time -- for a crash of a year or two.  It can't afford higher interest rates indefinitely.

[-gg-]

To me, many aspects of the world seem way out of whack.

But just focusing on financial conditions, I'm getting the feeling we are in for a huge crash (stocks, bonds, real estate cut in half), then the Fed will print $100 trillion.  (But maybe the Fed prints the $100 trillion before the full crash plays out.)

I think $100 trillion will be printed at some point because the government can't afford to pay interest on debt if interest rates go up on government debt.  So it will need the Fed to print money to buy Federal debt (debt monetization).  That will give the government cash to pay interest, and it will push interest rates down.  The government can only have interest rates higher for a short time -- for a crash of a year or two.  It can't afford higher interest rates indefinitely.

I feel the same. Big crash coming.

But if the feds print 100 trillion, wouldn't that just make inflation get much worse?

[Brooke]

I feel the same. Big crash coming.

But if the feds print 100 trillion, wouldn't that just make inflation get much worse?

I think so -- a lot worse.

That's how it has worked throughout history.  Except for a single counter example:  Japan.

Japan has been printing money and using it to buy government debt for decades.  They have not had gargantuan inflation -- at least not yet.  No one is sure why.  The leading hypothesis is that the Japanese don't buy enough as consumers for that built-up money to cause inflation.  More technically, the Japanese velocity of money has just plummeted over those decades.  If the money is printed, but no one spends it, it isn't inflationary.

In the US, if there is a big crash first, that is deflationary.  A big crash would cause lots of prices to decrease.  I'd expect the Fed to react by quickly printing a large amount of money, which leads back into inflation.

So, I think crash (and prices go down), followed by huge printing (and prices go up).

But I could very well be wrong.  It could be only a little crash then printing and inflation.  Or maybe we Japanify and have more printing, but no one spends it, and prices don't go up.  To me that last one seems less likely.

[Brooke]

This is a graph of how much US money there is.  The government/Fed has increased the money supply from $1.4 trillion in 2007 to $18 trillion today.



Because of the 2008 crash (bubble in mortgage-backed securities), money supply was increased by 185% over 13 years.  Because of the Covid fubar, money supply was increased by another 350% in 2 years.

If we have a stock, bond, and real-estate crash (everything bubble), why not quickly increase money supply by 555%, print a fresh $100 trillion?

Another way to look at it.  It took 200 years to get $1.4 trillion in US money.  It took another 13 years to go from $1.4 to $4 trillion.  It took another 2 years to go from $4 to $18 trillion.