Who wants a secure border?

[CptTrips]

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/08/13/migrant-encounters-at-u-s-mexico-border-are-at-a-21-year-high/ft_21-08-05_usmexicoborder_3a/

Uhhh I'm not seeing in that chart any evidence of a increase in the rate of crossings.  Can you point it out for me?

[Arlo]

But its an open border! Completely out of control! (Does Rush style foot stomp)

[Brooke]

The main way illegal immigration is measured is by "migrant encounters", which look like this:



If you are thinking (#encounters) = (#crossers) x (#borderAgents) x (effectivenessPerAgent), and you want to estimate what (#crossers) looks like over time, we could do this.  Assume effectivenessPerAgent is about the same over the past couple years.  #borderAgents in 2020 and 2021 was 19,740 and 19,536.  2022 number isn't out yet.  2020 and 2021 are only 1% different, so assume 2022 is about the same.

Given that, #crossers vs time graph would have the same shape as #encounters vs time graph.

[Arlo]

Based on assumption. Which still conflicts with an 'open borders' claim.

[Brooke]

Based on assumption. Which still conflicts with an 'open borders' claim.

No.  The data is encounters over time.

Your assumption is:  that it isn't a good representation of whatever it is you are imagining.

If you don't think encounters over time is meaningful, make your case.

[CptTrips]

The main way illegal immigration is measured is by "migrant encounters", which look like this:

That is an assumption you would like to make.  That does not constitute data.

[Brooke]

That is an assumption you would like to make.  That does not constitute data.

No.  Encounters over time is the data that is compiled and tracked by the government.

It is the official way of judging amount of illegal immigration.

[CptTrips]

It is the official way of judging amount of illegal immigration.

That is not what it measures.  That is what you'd like to claim it measures.

[Brooke]

That is not what it measures.  That is what you'd like to claim it measures.

It measures exactly what it says "encounters" over time.

That's what I claim it measures.

What are you talking about?

[CptTrips]

It measures exactly what it says "encounters" over time.

That's what I claim it measures.

What are you talking about?

So we agree that it proves nothing about the changes in the rate of crossings?

[Arlo]

No.  The data is encounters over time.

Your assumption is:  that it isn't a good representation of whatever it is you are imagining.

If you don't think encounters over time is meaningful, make your case.

My case was that someone was using 'encounters over time' to prove their assumption (crossings) when what it actually proves is increased activity by the Border Patrol under a supposed open border stance by the current administration.

We both know the actual number of crossings (or even a presumed increase) can't be proven that way.

It works like this - make a claim, prove the claim ... not make a claim, don't really prove it, challenge others to prove you wrong. Admitting one's presumption is such isn't shameful.

[CptTrips]

So, if we are just gong to make stuff up, here is my interpretation:

Based on Rush's mis-interpreted data.  Lets assume it means what it doesn't actually mean, just as a thought experiment.

Lets just look at the total number.

FY17	FY18	FY19	FY20	FY21	FY22
526,901	683,178	1,148,024	646,822	1,956,519	1,753,754

What I see is a big jump in Trump's year of 2019.  Jeez he really dropped the ball.  Maybe a little more Presidenting and a little less golfing Donny.

Big drop in 2020.  Maybe...hmmm dunno..global pandemic or something?

2021, 2022 I see make up numbers from those who didn't cross in 2019, plus the normal amount with maybe a little for demographic population growth. 

So essentially I see the numbers not being materially different than Trump's 2019 year, ignoring the make-up numbers from under-represented 2019.

That's as valid an interpretation as any you are trying to force on the numbers.

[RUSH1]

So, if we are just gong to make stuff up, here is my interpretation:

Based on Rush's mis-interpreted data.  Lets assume it means what it doesn't actually mean, just as a thought experiment.

Lets just look at the total number.

FY17	FY18	FY19	FY20	FY21	FY22
526,901	683,178	1,148,024	646,822	1,956,519	1,753,754

What I see is a big jump in Trump's year of 2019.  Jeez he really dropped the ball.  Maybe a little more Presidenting and a little less golfing Donny.

Or you don't remember the caravans and the democrats who supported them during those months?  Care to comment on the numbers from the other 3.5 years of his term or the steep increase in "encounters" since?       

[LCADolby]

98.36% of statistics are wrong

[CptTrips]

Care to comment on the numbers from the other 3.5 years of his term or the steep increase in "encounters" since?     

I'm not sure what you're frothing at the mouth about.  I'm commenting on the data you posted.  Don't you remember doing that?

These are the numbers you posted.  I'm sorry that you don't like them now that they've been explained to you.