Author Topic: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season  (Read 4385 times)

Offline MiloMorai

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NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« on: September 28, 2022, 08:21:24 AM »
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season#:~:text=For%20the%202022%20hurricane%20season%2C%20NOAA%20is%20forecasting,NOAA%20provides%20these%20ranges%20with%20a%2070%25%20confidence.

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, are predicting above-average hurricane activity this year — which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.

Offline RotBaron

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2022, 09:50:05 AM »
interview with CNN’s Don Lemon, National Hurricane Center acting director Jamie Rohme

Partial transcript as follows:

LEMON: Yes, that’s a big area. So, meteorologists, Jamie, have said that this storm could be entering another period of rapid intensification. Can you tell us what this is and what effect the climate change has on this phenomenon?

ROHME: Well, we can come back and talk about climate change at a later time. I want to focus on the here and now. We think the rapid intensification is probably almost done. There could be a little bit more intensification as it’s still over the warm waters of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, but I don’t think we’re going to get any more rapid intensification.

If you look here, you can actually see pretty interesting for your viewers. You can actually see a second eye wall forming around the inner eye wall, and that’s basically the second eye wall has overtaken the original eye wall, and that should arrest development.

LEMON: So, listen, I just — I’m just trying to get that you said you want to talk about climate change, but what — what effect does climate change have on this phenomenon that — that is happening now. Because it seems these storms are intensifying. That’s the question here.

ROHME: I don’t think you can link climate change to any one event —

LEMON: OK.

ROHME: — on the whole, on the cumulative, a climate change may be making storms worse. But to link it to any one event, I would caution against them.

LEMON: OK. Well, they — listen, I grew up there and these storms are intensifying something is causing them to intensify.


I know you want so badly for experts to say see this is caused by climate change (or global warming or global KOOLingAIDE), however when a career meteorologist and the US Hurricane Center Director will only grant you the possibility - “may be making storms worse”, you may want to question your convictions.

Additionally what satisfaction would you derive if you could prove you’re right?


« Last Edit: September 28, 2022, 09:53:21 AM by RotBaron »
They're casting their bait over there, see?

Offline icepac

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2022, 10:03:25 AM »
Not even close to 2004.

Offline guncrasher

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2022, 10:03:45 AM »
RotBaron have you checked what is happening in the Florida keys.


semp
you dont want me to ho, dont point your plane at me.

Offline MiloMorai

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Offline Chris79

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2022, 10:20:34 AM »
The season as of now has been normal in terms of the “ACE” index. In my opinion 80% of climate change hype is the result of self aggrandizement of certain political figures and academicians.


Chuikov

Offline MiloMorai

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Offline Chris79

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2022, 10:26:50 AM »
'04 had 15

'05 had 28

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/DataByYearandStorm.html

One thing to take note of is the criteria used to name and classify a cyclone as “tropical” has been relaxed. An interesting note, tornado activity has been on a decline. That’s especially telling because of the advancement of radar spotting technology would enable for a tornado to be documented  without being confirmed by a trained spotter. This in theory ought to cause tornadic incidents to increase especially in rural areas of the high plains but they have not.


Chuikov

Offline MiloMorai

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #8 on: September 28, 2022, 10:35:30 AM »
One thing to take note of is the criteria used to name and classify a cyclone as “tropical” has been relaxed. An interesting note, tornado activity has been on a decline. That’s especially telling because of the advancement of radar spotting technology would enable for a tornado to be documented  without being confirmed by a trained spotter. This in theory ought to cause tornadic incidents to increase especially in rural areas of the high plains but they have not.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_American_tornadoes_and_tornado_outbreaks#2020s

Offline icepac

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2022, 10:41:58 AM »
The fact that Katrina hit a city completely unprepared greatly skewed the damage total of the entire season…….and Katrina wasn’t that powerful.   
The majority of it’s damage toll was from flooding which occurred after the storm passed. 



The storms making landfall were stronger in 2004.

« Last Edit: September 28, 2022, 10:51:06 AM by icepac »

Offline MiloMorai

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2022, 11:00:11 AM »

The majority of it’s damage toll was from flooding which occurred after the storm passed. 


Where did the water come from?

Offline icepac

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #11 on: September 28, 2022, 11:32:13 AM »
Water came from the storm hit an area with a history of flooding in which the city totally dropped the ball.   

I went through 2004 season in Florida and moved in 2005 to another part of Florida which guaranteed I experienced multiple hurricane eyes both years.   
My experience was that 2004 was far worse……and the record 2020 season ended up being pretty weak despite the “numbers”. 

Hurricane Katrina isn’t even in the top 10 rain bringers in that city’s history yet it’s known to be damaging.     
Imagine if 2004’s hurricane Jeanne had dropped what it did on Florida north of an unprepared New Orleans.   
« Last Edit: September 28, 2022, 11:37:07 AM by icepac »

Offline RotBaron

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #12 on: September 28, 2022, 10:16:10 PM »
RotBaron have you checked what is happening in the Florida keys.


semp

No, what is?
They're casting their bait over there, see?

Offline RUSH1

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #13 on: September 28, 2022, 11:09:37 PM »
Additionally what satisfaction would you derive if you could prove you’re right?[/color]

And that sir is the billion, I mean trillion dollar question.   
“Concentrated power has always been the enemy of liberty.” - Ronald Reagan

Offline RUSH1

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #14 on: September 28, 2022, 11:21:15 PM »
The fact that Katrina hit a city completely unprepared greatly skewed the damage total of the entire season…….and Katrina wasn’t that powerful.   
The majority of it’s damage toll was from flooding which occurred after the storm passed. 

(Image removed from quote.)

The storms making landfall were stronger in 2004.

Whatever happened to that corrupt bunch of losers who were running N.O. at the time?  You know, the same group who "redirected" federal funds earmarked for levy improvements just a few years prior.  Bush was such a p#$&/ as he sat back and basically took the blame for what that democrat run city caused.  Meanwhile in Gulfport and Biloxi ...
“Concentrated power has always been the enemy of liberty.” - Ronald Reagan