Skyyr

[CptTrips]

In 2006 there were twenty times less the options for people to do anything let alone a flight sim

Fair point.  The rise of competition definitely is a major explanation of where players went.

So, I guess the question could be reworded,

What 3 things do you think most contribute to AH losing out to it's competitors in the context of winning over customers?

[Dadtallica]

Fair point.  The rise of competition definitely is a major explanation of where players went.

So, I guess the question could be reworded,

What 3 things do you think most contribute to AH losing out to it's competitors in the context of winning over customers?

It’s the same answer for me always. We are nearly 80 years removed from the time period in question and the generations after mine (I’m 50) do not covet the WWII era like we did. It’s just not as cool to them as it was to us. Plus it’s not as focused in schools as it used to be. Why learn to shoot guns when you can go Mach 2 and press a missile button.

My son has a VR headset and other things he straps on his arms, waist and feet if he wants to be fully immersed in a game. AH doesn’t stand a chance against today’s gaming world.

It does however in its current form offer a cheap alternative to all that but see paragraph A for why it’s not enough.

[JOACH1M]

I found this game from seeing an advertisement on the military channel when I was 14. Didn’t realize there was a forum here until a whole year after playing.

[Dadtallica]

I found this game from seeing an advertisement on the military channel when I was 14. Didn’t realize there was a forum here until a whole year after playing.

Yup that same commercial hooked a lot of us. 



My favorite thing about that commercial is the first big action you see is the shooting up of a train which has almost no value today lol.

[CptTrips]

It’s the same answer for me always. We are nearly 80 years removed from the time period in question and the generations after mine (I’m 50) do not covet the WWII era like we did. It’s just not as cool to them as it was to us. Plus it’s not as focused in schools as it used to be. Why learn to shoot guns when you can go Mach 2 and press a missile button.

Yeah, we might have  to agree to disagree with that one (as usual ).  I just don't see any evidence in the marketplace that WWII is not a viable genre.

IL2's problems isn't because no one will fly WWII planes.  Look at the activity they had as late as 2020?  IL2's problem is that it lost it's prime mover from what sounds like disagreements with (russian?) management.  Now they are performing badly.  Little new content, poor or no communication with the base.  No vision.  No roadmap.  No path forward.  It was IL2 that abandoned it's players, not the other way around.

Jason Williams (former producer for the IL2 GB series) is now getting funding to build a brand new WWII sim.  As you said programmers are expensive.  Someone is backing him with probably couple of $mil (?).  I'd have to think VC like that would do the market research and due diligence before risking that kind of cash.  Somehow they are thinking there is sufficient potential WWII interest to risk that kind of money.  Do you think they have looked into that question?

In any case, thanks for sharing your opinion.

[Dadtallica]

.

Jason Williams (former producer for the IL2 GB series) is now getting funding to build a brand new WWII sim.  As you said programmers are expensive.  Someone is backing him with probably couple of $mil (?).  I'd have to think VC like that would do the market research and due diligence before risking that kind of cash.  Somehow they are thinking there is sufficient potential WWII interest to risk that kind of money.  Do you think they have looked into that question?

In any case, thanks for sharing your opinion.

That’s fair but my hypothesis only grows stronger with time. $2M was the minimum I was thinking.

And no not every VC out there does their due diligence about that. They want in fast and usually out quick with some points on the back. My guess is that guy has all the clout he needs to talk someone into giving him money. Three years from now they will launch a game and make a quick boatload of initial cash, pay off the angel investors and then become just another sim on the market.

[CptTrips]

Three years from now they will launch a game and make a quick boatload of initial cash, pay off the angel investors and then become just another sim on the market.

How would they make that boatload of money if WWII is a dead genre and no one will pay for it?

[Icer]

I'm curious on your opinion as someone who has been around here as long as me.  You remember the 600 players a night time.  If you could list 3 things that you think most contribute to all the players that used to be here say in 2006 (600 players a night), not being here now, what do you think the explanation is?
I guess most players eventually tire of any game so that may be natural.  But then the question moves to what 3 things is preventing AH from convincing new players from signing up and replacing old players that leave?
Or, if you were king, what 3 things would you change first to put 600 players a night back in the game (assuming there was a possibility of that)?
I have to assume it is not just advertising else more of those 40,000 downloads from the Steam launch would have bit.  You'll never get that targeted an audience broadcasting on tv.

Being away the past 15 years I likely have outdated ideas of what works or not, and there is no magic wand to wave. IMO If you want to draw in new people in this age you need to bring the game into this decade, upgraded graphics, improved UI, and lower the initial cost of admission. Lower the buy-in cost with limited planes/hours/whatever. These new people should be (harshly) informed that they need to practice/train with someone, and join up with others if the want to actually enjoy themselves. Maybe a disclaimer before joining that being a lone wolf is a sure way to become discouraged and quit, so if you can't play well with others and take guidance, don't waste your time (and $$$). I think this is why most people buy sims like IL-2 and DCS, so they can play single player missions/campaigns, not to fly online. In reality the MOST active IL-2 servers may see 10 players (on average) with a high of 30-40 for events.. so it's not like all online players are on there instead of here. For me it was always Squad nights with 10-15 of us with an objective that kept me flying, once that came apart I left.. that and the Main Arena became idiotic (to me) with 1939 planes vs 1945 planes, and no one would fly in the time specific arenas. To me the MA was air-quake, I would have killed it if it was my call..

[Icer]

How would they make that boatload of money if WWII is a dead genre and no one will pay for it?

I doubt it will be a "boatload", but the interest in a WWII Pacific theater simulation with the latest graphics/logic/do-dads is quite high. THe Combat Pilot Discord and website are quite active.. and all they have are the basics so far (though they appear to have a basic A6M3 flying).

[CptTrips]

I doubt it will be a "boatload", but the interest in a WWII Pacific theater simulation with the latest graphics/logic/do-dads is quite high. THe Combat Pilot Discord and website are quite active.. and all they have are the basics so far (though they appear to have a basic A6M3 flying.

Exactly.

I'm not saying WWII is the most popular game genre out there, but there definitely seems to have enough interest to generate reasonable revenue.  IL2 GB made a boatload of money over the years.  They could be now if they didn't have their internal management issues.

[CptTrips]

I think this is why most people buy sims like IL-2 and DCS, so they can play single player missions/campaigns, not to fly online.

I don't know how some of the stuff you said would go over with potential customers , but you are dead on here.

I can't remember what Williams mentioned, but it was a big number like 85% of their revenue came from single-player.  That is why they are starting with that.  Build a player-base, build momentum and hype, build a revenue-base to fund the MP which will always be less volume.  No bucks, no Buck Rodgers.

IMHO, that is a big competitive advantage DCS and IL2 have over AH.  They don't have to fund their development from MP.  They have SP funding to keep development going in ~2 year sprints.

WT makes MP only work, but they are smart about how they use FTP to keep servers full and to maintain contact with a potential customer for as long as they can, not just two weeks.

[Edit]  Contemplate this point:  a kid can be bought a game for x-mas from grandma or someone; it is a much harder sell parents on agreeing to an open ended subscription.  You could have a gift certificate for 3 months of play or something, but a parent knows that either locks them in or schedules a fight in 3 months when they don't want to pay anymore. Great Battles of Stalingrad is a single purchase with no strings attached.  Much more likely to be a x-mas gift.

[Lusche]

IMHO, that is a big competitive advantage DCS and IL2 have over AH.  They don't have to fund their development from MP.  They have SP funding to keep development going in ~2 year sprints.

The only reason I ever paid for Il-2 was the single player mode, even though it's quite bad in my opinion. In fact, I never play IL-2 and DCS in multiplayer at all. 

[CptTrips]

The only reason I ever paid for Il-2 was the single player mode, even though it's quite bad in my opinion. In fact, I never play IL-2 and DCS in multiplayer at all. 

Single-player has unique challenges.  Believable AI is hard.  But I guess you don't have to be perfect, just as good or slightly better than your competitor.

As you said, there are many out there who have money to spend but (at least initially) who are only interested in SP. 

But building a SP builds a lot of your MP already, and it is nice to have a reliable revenue source funding you as you build your MP, or to sustain it beyond what MP numbers alone can provide.

[Icer]

I don't know how some of the stuff you said would go over with potential customers , but you are dead on here.

In this day of "everyone deserves a trophy" it wouldn't... There used to be a "newbie areana" IIRC, with relaxed realism and trainers available, does that still exist? To me, there should be Early War/Late War with full realism and a Newbie/Training arena that ALL new sign ups had to spend xx.x amount of time in. Thats it, no dilution all over the place, you have two choices.. Want to get crazy, have Pacific War one week, European the next with appropriate plane sets. See, my ideas are just for me.. 

[Lusche]

To me, there should be Early War/Late War with full realism and a Newbie/Training arena that ALL new sign ups had to spend xx.x amount of time in.

I spent quite some time in the TA back in the day when I was new, but I would never had joined AH with such a mandatory setting.

And today it would work even less. Imagine having 40 players in the MA and you are forced to stick around in the TA all alone until your timer is down to 0...