BRICS (economic not political)

[Eagler]

2 years old...I listened to it then

Basically saying the dollar is king or else.. see Iraq and Libya for examples of what happens if you say no..

Guess that's one way to make friends and influence people to keep the dollar on top

I think one day the world will tire of financing our bloated credit card life style...especially if we can't keep value in the dollar but continue to devalue it instead

Eagler

[CptTrips]

2 years old...I listened to it then

The fundamental facts of global economics have not changed.
The criteria for serving as a reserve currency has not changed.
Why N. Vietnam was using US dollar during the height of the war with us.  Using anything else, would lose them money or simply not have enough volume to make trade possible.

Countries don't use the US dollar because we force them. 
They use it for their own economic self-interest.

[nopoop]

Watch him daily. Sharp guy. Don't agree with "everything" he says but quite a bit.

[CptTrips]

Watch him daily. Sharp guy. Don't agree with "everything" he says but quite a bit.

I don't always agree with everything he says.  But yes, he is a smart guy and I've learned a lot from him.

I had never given demographics their proper weight in understanding the historical\economic course of nations.  Changed the way I think about a lot of things.

Europe, China, and Russia better hope he is full of it.

[nopoop]

If I remember correctly on that subject Japan has more people over 50 then under 50...

[CptTrips]

If I remember correctly on that subject Japan has more people over 50 then under 50...

The other big problem is their extreme toxic ethnocentricity.

That means they have no chance at pumping their demographics up by importing young workers from elsewhere. 
They mostly won't even allow other Asians to immigrate there.
They have done a fantastic job holding back the tide with increasing technology, but that isn't a long term solution and has a diminishing return.
Robots don't have babies.
It's why they have never really recovered from the peak in the 1980s, and never will again.  NO demographic growth, no economic growth.

Japan has chosen the long goodbye of demographic obsolescence. 

And Russia and China are such shtholes countries, no one wants to immigrate there anyway.

[Eagler]

So the dollar is the best of the worst...backed up by a military we aren't afraid to impose to keep the status quo ..while we abuse it with low interest rates imposed to force most into the bloated market that cannot reset as everyone has their retirement in it..heard the market is predicting a 1.25 reduction in rates by years end..go dollar go!! lol

Got it!

Eagler

[CptTrips]

So the dollar is the best of the worst..

That is an unintelligent statement.

To say something is the best of the worst, implies there is something better.

"Worse" implies a comparison against a better choice.

Unless you can identify this "better" currency that exists today, your statement makes no logical sense.

What I assume you meant to say was, "despite it's imperfections, there simply is no existing, viable option that is better or else it would already be in use."  Which is what Ziehan was trying to explain to your type.

Nothing ever created my men will be perfect.  Our currency only has to be a little better than the next best choice for it to be the logical choice for rational actors to choose in their own economic self-interest.  Unless you think North Vietnam was using the US dollar for trade during the height of the Vietnam War because they liked us.

Everything else you say is just anti-American fueled, Q-Anon fever-dream, internet conspiracy prattle.

[CptTrips]

Let us merely consult the Oracle:

Why can't we use the Euro as the world's reserve currency?


ChatGPT said:
Great question — the idea of the euro replacing the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency sounds viable on paper, but there are several political, economic, and structural reasons why it hasn’t happened (and likely won’t anytime soon). Here’s a breakdown of why the euro isn’t taking that top spot:

🔹 1. Lack of Political Unity in the Eurozone
The euro is shared by multiple countries, each with its own government, fiscal policy, and political priorities. Unlike the U.S., which has a single treasury, central bank, and political system, the EU is a patchwork. That lack of unified decision-making makes investors nervous — especially in a crisis.

Example: During the 2010–2012 Eurozone debt crisis (think Greece, Italy, Spain), the euro looked fragile. People wondered if the eurozone might fall apart. Not the kind of thing you want in a reserve currency.

🔹 2. Shallower Financial Markets
Reserve currencies need very deep and liquid financial markets where investors can park trillions of dollars without causing volatility. The U.S. Treasury market is enormous and safe — by comparison, the eurozone bond markets are fragmented (each country issues its own bonds), and there's no true "eurobond" market.

🔹 3. The Euro Is Not Universally Trusted
The euro is still relatively young (born in 1999) and has had a few credibility hiccups. A world reserve currency has to be seen as safe in any scenario. The EU’s challenges with cohesion and crisis response have made global investors a bit wary of relying on it as a primary store of value.

🔹 4. Inertia and Network Effects
The dollar’s dominance is partly just momentum. Oil is priced in dollars, global trade is settled in dollars, and many international loans are issued in dollars. For the euro to overtake the dollar, it would require not just better features — but also convincing everyone else to switch. That’s a massive coordination problem.

🔹 5. Limited Global Adoption
While the euro is used by many countries in Europe, it's not widely used outside of Europe for trade settlements or foreign reserves compared to the dollar. The U.S. has more global military, economic, and geopolitical influence, which reinforces dollar dominance.

🔹 TL;DR
We can't (easily) use the euro as the world’s reserve currency because:

The eurozone lacks fiscal and political unity

Eurozone bond markets are fragmented

Trust in the euro isn’t absolute

The dollar has huge network effects

There's no real alternative — yet

And given demographic trends, that are already baked into the cake and can't be stopped at this point, the argument FOR the US Dollar as the Reserve Currency only get stronger for decades and decades to come.  Frankly, into the foreseeable future.

[AKIron]

If you want to see a very long list google "european wars".

Better yet: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_in_Europe

[Eagler]

Not stating there is a better one ..yet

How about the best smelling turd in the toilet bowl?

Eagler

[CptTrips]

Not stating there is a better one ..yet

How about the best smelling turd in the toilet bowl?

That is all it takes.

So no,  there is no identifiable, feasible alternative to replace the USD as the reserve currency.  At least you'll certainly not live to see it.  Maybe in 80-100 years from now.

[Busher]

That is all it takes.

So no,  there is no identifiable, feasible alternative to replace the USD as the reserve currency.  At least you'll certainly not live to see it.  Maybe in 80-100 years from now.

You may be right but with the alienation of the free world by the imposition of broadly applied tariffs, there is no international motivation to continue with the US Dollar. It's worthy of note how rapidly internationally held US T-bills are being sold off.

[CptTrips]

You may be right but with the alienation of the free world by the imposition of broadly applied tariffs, there is no international motivation to continue with the US Dollar.

Well, I've been a Reaganite my whole adult life.  So, I think you can guess where I fall on that issue.

However, I believe T-bills are being sold mostly to cover sudden unexpected margin calls by panicked investors blindsided by this nonsense. 

I could be wrong.

I tell you what.  When a replacement has been found and has begun to cover  at least 30% of existing trade, I'll start taking those arguments more seriously.  I am not impervious to real data.

[Busher]

I tell you what.  When a replacement has been found and has begun to cover  at least 30% of existing trade, I'll start taking those arguments more seriously.  I am not impervious to real data.

Good point but "existing trade" will soon look radically different. Former trade allies are rapidly seeking new friends and markets.