A 50 year mortgage..

[Eagler]

Gotta pity the young these days...

They aren't going to have it half as good as my generation did..

How about lowering home cost by lowering monthly payments with higher interest rates which will cause the home prices to fall as the rate hike tries to restore value in the bloated dollar lowering the prices on most things just not homes..

Cutting 2k tariffs checks is just as criminal imo..

Has anyone else seen the rate at which our 38 trillion is growing these days..trillions a year now wtfg!!!

Eagler

[CptTrips]

Gotta pity the young these days...

They aren't going to have it half as good as my generation did..

And they are not going to.

General unemployment may be in the 4.2% neighborhood (which I think is grossly underestimated), but the unemployment amongst the young is easily 11% (which I think is grossly underestimated).

That's why military enlistment is up.  Military is always the employer of last resort for that age group.

And that is only going to get worse with AI.  The low expertise, intellectually menial work that you give young new hires is the first work to be replaced by AI.  And that is not cyclical.  Those jobs are not coming back.  Those are exactly the jobs young people need to get a toe-hold in the industries and start working themselves up.

Unless you want a Soviet command economy, you cannot block AI development, or force companies to keep people employed that can more efficiently be replaced by other means.  That will affect everyone from receptionists to paralegals to web javascript kiddies.

They will not find jobs.  They will not have the financial stability to buy houses or raise families.

Over the next 10 years, we are going to have to retire a lot of sacred cow concepts and completely re-think our society and economic system.
Intellectually rigid viewpoints pave the road to destruction.

[AKIron]

Raising interest rates will slow new home development and keep people from selling if they have to buy and acquire a new mortgage. Scarcity of available homes drives up prices. Why do you think it will be otherwise Eagler?

[AKIron]

Idaho real estate prices were driven up by people leaving California with cash to buy. Corporations with cash buy to rent out. That's big these days. Our HOA limits rentals to no more than 15% of the homes in this domain. I like that but some here don't. They want to sell but are limited.

[CptTrips]

Raising interest rates will slow new home development and keep people from selling if they have to buy and acquire a new mortgage. Scarcity of available homes drives up prices. Why do you think it will be otherwise Eagler?

Well raising rates also price younger buyers out of the market.

Especially temporarily if you think we will be in Depression by next year and rates will plumet to save what's left of the economy.  Wait a year or two and houses will be half as expensive (i.e. their normal and justifiable cost) and mortgage rates will be way down saving them thousands.

That may or may not help.  Boomers are wanting to downsize so they don't have so much house to handle in retirement but youngsters still won't have the jobs or the financial security to need to buy a house to raise a family.  They won't be raising families so just stay in the apartment.

If you've bought a house in the last 5 years, I hope you don't have to sell anytime soon.  You might get a shock at how much you over-paid and how big a haircut you will have to take to get out.


Like the people buying stocks at the bubble froth prices.  It's the Bonfire of Vanities.  Tulip bulbs.

[AKIron]

Jimmy Carter, bless his heart, drove mortgage rates to 18% in 81. That drove me out of the market.

[AKIron]

If you've bought a house in the last 5 years, I hope you don't have to sell anytime soon.  You might get a shock at how much you over-paid and how big a haircut you will have to take to get out.

That depends. We moved back to Texas a couple of years ago when prices were surging and paid more than we wanted. Prices did dip since but are coming back up and very close to what we paid. Lot's of "depends" with the primary being location. This area is seeing big growth with a lot more expected.

[AKIron]

There are more apartments being built in the "Texoma" area than single family homes right now. Still, many of both going up. It was the other way around until the interest rates were raised.

[AKIron]

Florida, and to a lesser degree Texas, is about to see a lot more people with money from NYC.

[CptTrips]

Corporations with cash buy to rent out. That's big these days.

Something like 25% of all housing is being bought-up by corporations.  They can pay more that average folks because they see it as a long term revenue vehicle and if they overpay they just write it off on their taxes.

[CptTrips]

Florida, and to a lesser degree Texas, is about to see a lot more people with money from NYC.

A lot are leaving too.

Despite the number of people leaving Texas, the state's population continues to grow due to even more people moving in. Between 2023 and 2024, Texas gained over 562,000 residents, the most of any state. However, the rate of domestic migration (moves from other U.S. states) is slowing, making out-migration more noticeable.
A variety of factors drive people to leave Texas, including rising costs, intense weather, and dissatisfaction with the state's political climate. Recent movers are often young, urban, and non-homeowners.
Primary reasons people are leaving Texas
Cost of living and affordability
While historically affordable, the cost of living in Texas has risen significantly, particularly in metropolitan areas.
High property taxes: The state's lack of a personal income tax is offset by high property taxes, which have soared due to the housing boom.
Rising housing costs: The rapid influx of people has driven up housing costs, forcing many, especially millennials and Gen Z, to look for more affordable options elsewhere.
Slowing income growth: A 2025 study found that Texas ranked 30th in the nation for income growth, a troubling sign for a state with increasing expenses.
Weather and environment
Texas is known for its extreme and unpredictable weather, which is a major factor for some leaving the state.
Extreme heat: Summers with temperatures frequently exceeding 100°F are becoming unbearable for some residents.
Power grid issues: The state's power grid, which is separate from the national grid, is a source of concern. Massive outages, such as the 2021 winter storm that led to hundreds of deaths, have shaken confidence in the state's infrastructure.
Natural disasters: Texas is also prone to hurricanes, tornadoes, and flooding.
Politics and culture
A number of social and political issues are influencing moves out of the state.
Conservative policies: For some liberal and independent-leaning residents, the state's conservative political shift on issues like abortion, gun rights, and transgender rights is a dealbreaker.
Impact on families: Some residents with children are leaving due to dissatisfaction with the public education system and concerns over safety.
Seeking like-minded communities: Some people report moving to find communities with values that align more closely with their own.
Where people are moving
According to recent data, top destinations for those leaving Texas include:
California: Attracting former Texans despite its reputation for high costs, possibly for cultural reasons.
Florida: A popular destination with a growing population, similar to Texas in many ways.
Oklahoma: A nearby, more affordable option that draws former Texans.
Washington and Colorado: States that appeal to those seeking different weather and political climates.

I still find it hard to believe, despite it's failings, that anyone would prefer OK or FL over TX.

[AKIron]

With the recent election cementing business friendly policies into the Texas Constitution there will be even more of this:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/why-major-financial-firms-expanding-texas-presence-beyond-traditional-wall-street-hub

[AKIron]

A lot are leaving too.



I still find it hard to believe, despite it's failings, that anyone would prefer OK or FL over TX.

We looked at OK just north of the Texas border. Cheaper home prices and cheaper property taxes. However, OK has a state income tax and an average sales tax of 9%, including on groceries. I was studying Durant OK and noticed no big grocery chains there. After see the sales tax rate I understood why and why we see so many OK plates at the grocery stores here.

[CptTrips]

With the recent election cementing business friendly policies into the Texas Constitution there will be even more of this:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/why-major-financial-firms-expanding-texas-presence-beyond-traditional-wall-street-hub

Mainly because of our cheaper housing and central time zone.

I hope a lot come in from other states.  I don't know or care what their politics are, it is likely to lead to a further moderation of our population. 

My dream is one day you have a 50\50 split of the state and each party has to fight like heck to prove they will do better for the people.  A little more out of state moderation and we will get there.

When you have one-party rule for too long, in Texas, Cali, or Mexico you get rot.  Freedom comes when all pols have to sweat their job every election.  In Texas we don't have that yet.  One party knows they don't even have to try or produce.

For now.






 

[AKIron]

I noticed they do have a lot of backyard wine cellars in OK.