The US now providing shipping insurance 
"If you like your shipper, you can keep your shipper."
It won't help.
Turns out people don't like getting blown up and burned alive coated in petroleum product, even if you promise to compensate them. Weird.
The regime is still firmly in place and able to project it's power into the Straight.
Those drone can be built in peoples garages from plywood and bag of components and launched within minutes from the back of a civilian van. They will distribute drone manufacture in a cottage-industry the way the NV did with weapons manufacturing.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/12/strait-of-hormuz-closure-iran-oil-prices-mojtaba-khamenei.htmlThe leadership will be down in hidden caves or embedded in populated areas and moving nightly. You'd have to terror-bomb half the cities in Iran to get them. Collateral damage would be more than just one girl's school.
you want to protect the straight, the minimum would be a coastal invasion fan out and permanently occupy a 10 mile strip along the coast and depopulate it and hold in like a permanent Gaza Strip. I don't want to buy off on that commitment.
If you want to do the job right, and not just make a mess and have them hunker down and out-wait you, it is going to take a full scale invasion to hunt down the leadership and pull them out of spider-holes one by one like we did Saddam.
Anything less and the regimes will stay in power. Beaten and bloody, but still firmly in power.
But that is a 500k troop commitment and we'd be there 10 years nation building. Iran is over 3 times the size of Iraq. The regime is unpopular but not 100% hated. There are probably 50 mil of that population that see us as enemy invaders. That's a lot of snipers and IED waiting.
You might make the argument that is better than an eventual nuclear holocaust.
OK, then make that argument in Congress and persuade.
If our country is going to be committed to a project of that scale, our elected representatives need the opportunity to deliberate this issue openly on the floor and take an open vote.
Don't just sleep-walk your way into another Iraq\Afghanistan step by ill-considered step. If we go into this we need to all agree how far we are willing to go and how much blood and treasure are we willing to pour into the effort. Now is the time to debate that. Well two weeks ago was the time, but that horse is out of the barn.
Crude is up 52% since the start of the Special Military Operation. If the straight isn't open and safe in a couple of weeks that is going to $120.
