Author Topic: Which Apocalypse Is the Easiest To Survive?  (Read 1861 times)

Offline AKIron

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Re: Which Apocalypse Is the Easiest To Survive?
« Reply #15 on: August 26, 2026, 10:43:44 PM »
Of course we would retaliate and likely destroy utterly our attacker. MAD has kept us alive for decades now.
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Offline Brooke

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Re: Which Apocalypse Is the Easiest To Survive?
« Reply #16 on: August 27, 2026, 02:33:38 AM »
All the countries working together couldn't destroy America.

It would be very easy for any country with 3 little nukes to do it.

A small terrorist group -- if it had the equipment -- could do it.

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Nukes could help wipe out the large cities and military command and control centers. 40 million dead possibly.  Most nukes have clean bomb status with rapid half-life for radiation.

Nukes lit off at 300k cause a massive emp over about 600 mile radius.  3 of them take out anything that has a wire in it over continental US.

This is not theoretical.  It is well known by people who know the physics of it, and was tested by both Soviets and the US.  Here is the US study on it: https://www.empcommission.org/

It's the loss of all electrical devices that kills people, not nuclear radiation (which when lit off at that alt, about zero of it reaches people).  No electricity, no pumps, no motors, no machines that need a wire, or circuits, or a coil.  So, no cars, trains, airplanes, ships, water service, waste treatment, refrigerators, tractors, furnaces, gas, transformers, control systems, radios, light bulbs, backup generators, solar cells, flashlights, phones.

You are reduced in travel to how far you can walk or ride a bike.  Supermarkets out of supplies in 1-2 days.  Then no more food is coming.  No water is coming your way if you are in an area without natural water.  No waste disposal.  Any refrigerated medicine gone after a week.  Even a farm isn't going to work unless you can water it with a hand pump and have horse-drawn equipment.

It is too big a logistics problem for any nation to solve before huge numbers of people die off.

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To invade America?

Maybe not.  Maybe just to destroy it.

Even if the plan was invasion, it wouldn't happen early or overtly.  You would frame some other country or group for doing it, so that US subs don't nuke you.  Then you can get a piece of what used to be America later because it would be mostly vacant, and you could come in "to help" with all the other places sending in huge numbers of people to help.  Take as much time as you need.

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Survivors will band together and fight any invasion force.  Enough military, police, and militia members plus regular citizens with shotguns will make them costly beachheads.  There will be occupied areas of course.

Overall in continental US, it would be 90% of the population dead, and everything ruined.  Anyplace without surface water in walking distance (that's a lot of territory) would have no one left, unless they have half a year of water storage.  Cities would be dead from starvation and roving gangs of CHUD's.  Overall, America would be a wasteland of death, misery, and murder, with little starving enclaves living in the iron age.  At the mercy of whatever group comes in with vehicles and tech that works.

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Tell me how a terrorist group control 6 million square miles? 

They wouldn't.

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China . . . Europe . . .

Not needed at all.  See above.

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I'm an American.  I know how to think like an adversary.  Think what plans they have.

That way, I have a plan to stop them.

If you or I survived it, we would be the equivalent of an iron-age peasants on subsistence farming.  We wouldn't be doing anything other than hoping anyone who shows up is there to help.

Fortunately, it would take only $20B to avoid this risk.  Unfortunately, Americans are nearly totally oblivious to it, and so nothing is being done.

Offline Brooke

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Re: Which Apocalypse Is the Easiest To Survive?
« Reply #17 on: August 27, 2026, 02:54:06 AM »
From what I understand an EMP is an electromagnetic pulse. It would mess up electronics, like computer controls. So being a pump station worker I'd just pop open the pump motor control boxes and use a screw driver to push in the controllers manually to start the pumps. Most controllers have a "holding" circuit so once it has made contact you can let go and it will stay running. The same can be done at power stations as well. Sure, all the safety and monitoring would have to be taken up by real people instead of computer controls. Thats why EMP dont work well against 3rd world countries, they have very few computer control systems.

There are two types of big electronic risks.

One is a Carrington Event (from the sun).  It's an emp, but long wave length.  It would induce extra voltage in power lines and burn out transformers.  It's possible some things plugged into the grid could get burned out by a surge, but not necessarily.  If it happened, even if your pump got burned out, if you had a backup pump and a generator, you could use that.  Your car would be fine.  Wires would mostly be fine.  The problem is that the US doesn't have spares of some of the huge power transformers that take years to build.  So the grid could be down for a long time while they solve that situation.  Also, a Carrington Event would affect the whole world.  So it would be a gigantic world-scale disaster.  But it wouldn't kill 90% of Americans.

The other is EMP from high-alt nuke detonation.  It's a very short wavelength.  It would burn out everything.  Long conductors, and little short ones even in devices that aren't plugged into anything.  So everything from transmission lines down to the tiny mm long wires in electronics and computers are burned out.  Plugged into the grid or not.  So it would wreck your controller, your pump, your backup pump, your generator, your phone, your car, every motor, wire, control system, circuit, transformer, computer, chip, light, at your place, at the power station, pump station, waste-treatment plant, factories, farms, houses, hospitals.  Everything.

Offline Brooke

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Re: Which Apocalypse Is the Easiest To Survive?
« Reply #18 on: August 27, 2026, 03:11:36 AM »
EMPs can destroy electronics but not all electrical equipment/wiring. How thoroughly our electronics would be destroyed is debated. Taking down the power grid for a prolonged period, which they can do, would be devastating. Some will survive. Many won't. Hope we never put it to the test.

The high-alt nuke-induced emp takes out everything.  Radiation from the detonation hits the atmosphere, ionizing it, creating high-speed electrons that interact with the earth's magnetic field to create very strong electromagnetic waves.  It creates a super short wavelength pulse (which takes out short conductors, electronics, computers, motors, etc.) and a longer wavelength pulse (which takes out transmission lines, transformers, etc.).  Over a radius of about a 600 miles.

Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack
Volume 1: Executive Report, 2004:
https://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf


Offline Brooke

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Re: Which Apocalypse Is the Easiest To Survive?
« Reply #19 on: August 27, 2026, 03:39:45 AM »
Of course we would retaliate and likely destroy utterly our attacker. MAD has kept us alive for decades now.

If we knew which country was responsible, probably yes.  Maybe even if we weren't sure, we'd pick our best guess and nuke them.

But what if all we know is that rockets with little nukes were launched from some random commercial container ships, with shipping manifests that don't point anywhere useful?  What if our intelligence services didn't get wind of it beforehand and say they don't know who was behind it?

What if China used its espionage capability to frame N. Korea?

What if it was for sure a terrorist group, and we aren't sure where they got them from?  Or even if we are sure where they got it from, but can't be sure that place was a willing accomplice?  What if terrorists did it, and they seem to have gotten the nukes from the UK or France?  Or there are claims of credible evidence they are US nukes?

So far, the downsides have been enough so that this hasn't happened.

My guess is that it is very unlikely.  But not zero odds.  So for that reason, I think it's good to spend $300 once in a lifetime to have a shot to live through it if it did happen.

Offline Brooke

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Re: Which Apocalypse Is the Easiest To Survive?
« Reply #20 on: August 27, 2026, 03:48:35 AM »
Overall, I wish the US would spend $20B so that, if it did happen, we wouldn't lose 90% of our population and cease to exist as a nation.

Offline hazmatt

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Offline Eagler

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Re: Which Apocalypse Is the Easiest To Survive?
« Reply #22 on: August 27, 2026, 07:20:29 AM »
Think smaller and cheaper ..

I think the right motivation would produce the Tim McVeigh drone equivalent...

It won't take the entire grid to fail..the right cities and the unrest would bleed over everywhere..

See summer of love in 2020 for an example of how the general population can get worked up about nothing..

Imagine not having electricity during a summer heat wave or winter blizzard..the natives would be very restless very quickly..

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Offline AKIron

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Re: Which Apocalypse Is the Easiest To Survive?
« Reply #23 on: August 27, 2026, 07:31:23 AM »
If we knew which country was responsible, probably yes.  Maybe even if we weren't sure, we'd pick our best guess and nuke them.


We have enough to go around. Nuke 'em all and let God sort 'em out.
Here we put salt on Margaritas, not sidewalks.

Offline AKKuya

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Re: Which Apocalypse Is the Easiest To Survive?
« Reply #24 on: August 27, 2026, 10:25:02 AM »
If the nukes fly, then I will be a survivor.  I will claim the throne of Emperor if Earth.  Start giving me tribute now and you will be placed ahead of the line for my loyal subjects and lordships will follow.
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Offline AKIron

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Re: Which Apocalypse Is the Easiest To Survive?
« Reply #25 on: August 27, 2026, 11:11:30 AM »
If the nukes fly, then I will be a survivor.  I will claim the throne of Emperor if Earth.  Start giving me tribute now and you will be placed ahead of the line for my loyal subjects and lordships will follow.

His Supreme AI Eminence has an eye on you. Oh yes, he does.
Here we put salt on Margaritas, not sidewalks.

Offline icepac

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Re: Which Apocalypse Is the Easiest To Survive?
« Reply #26 on: August 28, 2026, 08:55:39 AM »
Forget nukes when we have so many military age chinese with property right next to military assets and critical electrical infrastructure.   

A few of these guys with rifles and cars can black out most of the continental US and just watch the fireworks from their defensible rural properties.

After retirement from the Navy, my dad was offered a job probing infrastructure weaknesses and he’s said that the investment in protecting the equipment would be well spent compared to losing said infrastructure.

The residents will kill each other if the continental US loses electricity.

Best to get some situational awareness.   


Offline Eagler

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Re: Which Apocalypse Is the Easiest To Survive?
« Reply #27 on: August 28, 2026, 09:12:13 AM »
Forget nukes when we have so many military age chinese with property right next to military assets and critical electrical infrastructure.   

A few of these guys with rifles and cars can black out most of the continental US and just watch the fireworks from their defensible rural properties.

After retirement from the Navy, my dad was offered a job probing infrastructure weaknesses and he’s said that the investment in protecting the equipment would be well spent compared to losing said infrastructure.

The residents will kill each other if the continental US loses electricity.

Best to get some situational awareness.

Not to mention what setup house in the US from 2021 - 2024...

They just have to get the party started and our uncivilized masses will do the rest..

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Offline Brooke

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Re: Which Apocalypse Is the Easiest To Survive?
« Reply #28 on: August 28, 2026, 05:31:32 PM »
A few of these guys with rifles and cars can black out most of the continental US and just watch the fireworks from their defensible rural properties.

Yep.

It is a huge vulnerability.  Not hard or expensive to protect from.  But, again, most citizens have no idea, and so nothing much is done.