Hi Hooligan,
>I did a rough measurement of the presented target area of a spitfire from a cross-sectional drawing presented from the front quarter (“The Great Book of World War II Airplanes”, various Authors, 1984 Zokeisha Publications, Ltd. pg. 284).
Good approach!
Note that my lower figure for critically vulnerable area (10% versus 27%) comes from the requirement for an immediate kill raised earlier in this thread, while you've included targets that lead to the aforementioned "slow" kills.
To arrive at a complete analysis with your approach, we'd need to assign kill probabilities for each of the critical targets you mentioned to get the overall kill probability. For example, the engine is a pretty hard target and has a good chance of surviving even a direct hit, and the pilot armour is going to stop a certain proportion of the attacking projectiles (even if they're 20 mm armour piercing).
For comparison, the Luftwaffe considered 6 x 20 mm enough to kill a fighter. That's an average probability of kill of 17%. You're starting with 27% now, presuming a 100% probability of kill per component. By adjusting the Pk for each component to a realistic value, you can check how well your model compares to the Luftwaffe's analysis.
Regards,
Henning (HoHun)