Author Topic: Global warming evidence, a question...  (Read 1028 times)

Offline GRUNHERZ

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 13413
Global warming evidence, a question...
« on: December 08, 2002, 01:11:32 AM »
Hello:
 
When I read reports about new global warming evidence and rersearch I often see a statement like: "these are the highest temperatures ever seen in the area since the 19XX" or one on CNN.com now that says "Greenland is experiencing a warm spell unseen since the 1930s", as opposed to highest temperature on record statistics.  Well doesnt this go against the argument they are making that these temperatures are unnnatural and due to recent modern human pollution if they were seen so long ago before the vast majority of human polluting activity?

Anyone?

Offline -tronski-

  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2825
Global warming evidence, a question...
« Reply #1 on: December 08, 2002, 03:25:23 AM »
So what is your question?

 Tronsky
God created Arrakis to train the faithful

Offline Wotan

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 7201
Global warming evidence, a question...
« Reply #2 on: December 08, 2002, 03:45:58 AM »
Quote
Well doesnt this go against the argument they are making that these temperatures are unnnatural and due to recent modern human pollution if they were seen so long ago before the vast majority of human polluting activity?


Looks pretty clear to me? you miss it?
« Last Edit: December 08, 2002, 05:35:56 AM by Wotan »

Offline -tronski-

  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2825
Global warming evidence, a question...
« Reply #3 on: December 08, 2002, 06:05:15 AM »
Quote
When I read reports about new global warming evidence and rersearch I often see a statement like: "these are the highest temperatures ever seen in the area since the 19XX" or one on CNN.com now that says "Greenland is experiencing a warm spell unseen since the 1930s", as opposed to highest temperature on record statistics.


The whole statement didn't have anything to actually question. It is a question on conjecture.

It's like asking:
I've often heard that if my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a wheelbarrow. But wheelbarrows have only 2 wheels but she'd need more than 2 - then she wouldn't actually be a wheelbarrow. Doesn't this go against the normal argument that my grandmother doesn't need wheels at all?

 Tronsky
God created Arrakis to train the faithful

Offline GRUNHERZ

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 13413
Global warming evidence, a question...
« Reply #4 on: December 08, 2002, 06:14:43 AM »
GLOBAL WARMING EVIDENCE EXAMPLE:

"Greenland is experiencing a warm spell unseen since the 1930s"

MY QUESTION:

Doesn't that type of argument go against the idea of recent human pollution causing unnatural warming - because it clearly states that such temperatures occured quite a long time ago in terms of human pollution output.


Simple enough I think.

Offline Samm

  • Silver Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 980
Global warming evidence, a question...
« Reply #5 on: December 08, 2002, 06:21:00 AM »
CNN is probably not a good source for scientific data . The average global temperature has only risen about 1 degree over the last 150 years . But it doesn't take miss cleo to see that if green house gasses keep increasing the way that they have been the last 200 years that it will affect the climate .

Offline SaburoS

  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2986
Global warming evidence, a question...
« Reply #6 on: December 08, 2002, 06:28:47 AM »
Seems the temps go in cycles. Not worried as long as the temp doesn't break and maintain records.
I'd be more worried about the condition of our ozone layer. If it degrades bad enough, we'd probably die.
Men fear thought as they fear nothing else on earth -- more than ruin -- more even than death.... Thought is subversive and revolutionary, destructive and terrible, thought is merciless to privilege, established institutions, and comfortable habit. ... Bertrand Russell

Offline Samm

  • Silver Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 980
Global warming evidence, a question...
« Reply #7 on: December 08, 2002, 06:35:01 AM »
Samples taken in Law dome antartica and data collected in Mana lao Hawaii indicate from 1000 to 1800 atmospheric co2 stayed pretty much the same at around 240ppm . From 1800 to 2000 it increased dramatically to about 335ppm. During the mesozoic era(dinosaurs) when there were no polar icecaps the atmospheric co2 was supposedly 18 times what it is now.


Some visual aids .






Offline Wotan

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 7201
Global warming evidence, a question...
« Reply #8 on: December 08, 2002, 06:47:10 AM »
Quote
When I read reports about new global warming evidence and rersearch I often see a statement like: "these are the highest temperatures ever seen in the area since the 19XX" or one on CNN.com now that says "Greenland is experiencing a warm spell unseen since the 1930s", as opposed to highest temperature on record statistics.


It seems to me the above sets the context for the question.

Quote
Well doesnt this go against the argument they are making that these temperatures are unnnatural and due to recent modern human pollution if they were seen so long ago before the vast majority of human polluting activity?



Simple enough to me but maybe something is lost in the translation.

Its nothing like your wheelbarrow story.

"If Greenland had experienced warm bouts in the past how can science attribute the current state of the climate to "global warming."

Offline -tronski-

  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2825
Global warming evidence, a question...
« Reply #9 on: December 08, 2002, 07:17:10 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
GLOBAL WARMING EVIDENCE EXAMPLE:

"Greenland is experiencing a warm spell unseen since the 1930s"

MY QUESTION:

Doesn't that type of argument go against the idea of recent human pollution causing unnatural warming - because it clearly states that such temperatures occured quite a long time ago in terms of human pollution output.


Simple enough I think.


>"Greenland is experiencing a warm spell unseen since the 1930s"

Says who?  

>these are the highest temperatures ever seen in the area since the 19XX

What? Where?

You see...I understood your end question quite well, but your anecdotal postulation was vague to say the least, especially if you're looking to debunk theories/arguments on Global warming.

 Tronsky
God created Arrakis to train the faithful

Offline Wotan

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 7201
Global warming evidence, a question...
« Reply #10 on: December 08, 2002, 07:52:11 AM »
The whole global warming in and of it self is conjecture and "anecdotal postulation". Still Gruen's question was clear. If you didnt think it worth answering then why enter the thread?

The question of "who, what" was in his 1st post

Quote
CNN.com


I guess you missed that as well?

Offline ra

  • Parolee
  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3569
Global warming evidence, a question...
« Reply #11 on: December 08, 2002, 08:09:34 AM »
Quote
But it doesn't take miss cleo to see that if green house gasses keep increasing the way that they have been the last 200 years that it will affect the climate .

So that's it.  Miss Cleo is behind this global warming hype.

Offline -tronski-

  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2825
Global warming evidence, a question...
« Reply #12 on: December 08, 2002, 09:54:33 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Wotan
The whole global warming in and of it self is conjecture and "anecdotal postulation". Still Gruen's question was clear. If you didnt think it worth answering then why enter the thread?

The question of "who, what" was in his 1st post

 

I guess you missed that as well?


It's well accepted by scientists that greenhouse gases trap heat in the Earth's atmosphere and tend to warm the planet. By increasing the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, human activities are strengthening Earth's natural greenhouse effect. The key greenhouse gases emitted by human activities remain in the atmosphere for periods ranging from decades to centuries.

thats from EPA.gov

IPCC projects further global warming of 2.2-10°F (1.4-5.8°C) by the year 2100

Thats also from epa.gov   or is it? After all the epa site is fairly exstensive...I could be making it all up.

possibly from the same site:

But projecting what the exact impacts will be over the 21st century remains very difficult. This is especially true when one asks how a local region will be affected.

Perhaps that is the answer to: Greenland is experiencing a warm spell unseen since the 1930s.

Hmmm an exact reference might be better you think, so we could assertain the context?

OF course I could just go to:the actual CNN story and find the 3rd and 4th paragraph BEFORE Greenland is experiencing a warm spell unseen since the 1930s. which states: Natural variability may be behind the changes, but human activity might also be to blame, scientists said.

 A new five-year research plan presented this week by scientists and government officials meeting in Washington, D.C., asserts that people clearly are agents of environmental change, though it is still unclear how much human activity contributes.


or the 2 paragraphs after:

Since 1979, the melt area has grown by 16 percent and is affecting higher and higher elevations.
Across the Arctic Ocean, the floating mantle of ice that covers it throughout much of the year shrank to record levels this summer, said Mark Serreze, also of the University of Colorado. In September, sea ice extent was 4 percent lower that that seen in any previous September since monitoring began in 1978.


Those paragraphs in the same article floating around CNN.com might also be the answer to the original question:
doesnt this go against the argument they are making that these temperatures are unnnatural and due to recent modern human pollution if they were seen so long ago before the vast majority of human polluting activity?

Possibly - but people clearly are agents of environmental change and considering the amount of pollutants emitted into the atmosphere since the industrial revolution clearly predates the 1930's. Coupled with the fact that most proper records of climate change (ie. ice melt) seem to have been recorded from the late 20th century then it is entirely possible that early pollution and temps are linked.




 Tronsky
God created Arrakis to train the faithful

Offline ccvi

  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2074
      • http://www.carl-eike-hofmeister.de/
Global warming evidence, a question...
« Reply #13 on: December 08, 2002, 01:11:45 PM »
earth is getting a bit warmer.
CO2 level has increased.

I've never seen any evidence that there's a link between those two.

Offline ccvi

  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2074
      • http://www.carl-eike-hofmeister.de/
Global warming evidence, a question...
« Reply #14 on: December 08, 2002, 01:28:08 PM »
Something else:

A real green house works by stopping the wind from blowing away the air heated by close contact with the ground. This doesn't work with the earth. The air can't be blown away with or without green house gas.

CO2 is a great green house gas. An increased CO2 level works great in green houses to increase plant growth. They need it to breathe.

Imagine two earths. One with the other without lot's of green house gas. Both attached to eachother with their atmospheres. Do you think one would get warmer than the other? We should build such a system, that would solve all mankinds energy problems.