Author Topic: War and the economy (Read 314 times)

Preon1 · « **on:** January 28, 2003, 11:36:22 AM »

For two weeks now, American economists have been reporting over the radio that "war concerns" have driven the market down. Personally, I don't understand how the buying and selling of stocks that seem to have little to do with the performance of their respective companies has anything to do with the economy...

BUT...

If I remember the lessons of my grade school history classes, wars in the last 200 years have been very good for the American economy. Why should US investors sell off their stocks in preparation for a war? It seems like a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Does anybody have any expertise in this?

midnight Target · « **Reply #1 on:** January 28, 2003, 11:38:33 AM »

During a War the Economy tends to be good. After a war the economy tends to take a dump.

(Look at the period 1946-1950 and directly after the Gulf War)

Preon1 · « **Reply #2 on:** January 28, 2003, 11:51:59 AM »

I just took a look at the history of the US GDP... seems to me that it's just an exponential increase irrespective of world events.

US GDP

Ripsnort · « **Reply #3 on:** January 28, 2003, 11:56:12 AM »

Quote

Originally posted by midnight Target
During a War the Economy tends to be good. After a war the economy tends to take a dump.

(Look at the period 1946-1950 and directly after the Gulf War)

This is only true in a country that gears up and begins mass production, which in turn employs thousands which in turn begin to spend earned money. That will not be the case in the late 20th or early 21st century.

Rude · « **Reply #4 on:** January 28, 2003, 12:50:35 PM »

Our economy is fine.....not what we were spoiled with thru the last decade, but still strong.

Funny, the Democrats defined the goal of what they termed as full employment at 6% in the early ninety's...that's where were at today but it is now unacceptable.

The leading economic indicators just released were up....new home construction up....unemployment claims for the same period are down slightly....retail sales for Christmas were flat.

It's not the end of our economic world.

The current economy is mirrored almost exactly with the last gulf incursion....anyone ever hear of the business cycle?

Oh wait....Clinton claimed he had defeated the business cycle...I almost forgot:)

john9001 · « **Reply #5 on:** January 28, 2003, 02:20:26 PM »

the price of stocks on wall street has nothing to do with anything except speculators trying to out guess each other and it ends up being a self fullfilling prophecy,
IE: if most "think" the market will go up , they will buy and the market will go up and vice versa.

Eagler · « **Reply #6 on:** January 28, 2003, 03:46:28 PM »

are you talking about the "daily" traders?

the "stock" market is a 72 hr investment tops nowadays - bump her up then rape her then bump her up then.....

MrLars · « **Reply #7 on:** January 28, 2003, 07:27:55 PM »

The industry that I work closely with, the hospitality industry, is predicting a 25% loss in revenue if we go to war. This industry is so closely tied with the travel industry that any slowdown in travel has an immediate effect on it.

With the projected slowdown in corporate travel my business will suffer to the point of me having to lay off some damn good people.

The sad part is that while I think Dubya's possibly one of the worst presidents in recent history, I support the possibility of and the need for military action in Iraq.

This has become a conundrum for me.

The soldiers, < may their Cod bless them >, while being the ones laying their life on the line, aren't the only ones that will be adversly affected by the comming war.

I find myself looking at the people I work with and can't help but to think about my support of Dubya in regards to Iraq and how adversly his actions are going to effect those that I care for.

john9001 · « **Reply #8 on:** January 28, 2003, 09:32:55 PM »

so you want saddam to stay in power so you don't have to "lay off some damn good people. "

did i get that right??

StSanta · « **Reply #9 on:** January 29, 2003, 06:01:58 AM »

You know, the best argument for a war against Saddam...

Is showing the documentaries about him.

I've had staunchly anti-war socialists acquaintances of mine over to watch a taped one that was sent on Discovery Channel.

She agreed that he should be removed by force. Before she'd been 'it's the US faults blah blah'.

Facts are always compelling. Facts presented in the Discovery documentary way are extremely much so.