This war is about a lot of things, and different things to different players, but Oil is the major underlying feature. Without oil, nobody gives a crap about Iraq or the whole Middle East. It just becomes another economic void like Central Africa. Local and even "multinational" coalition companies in the oil biz will enjoy significant financial gains, and those of the "Axis of the unwilling" will suffer losses. Kinda hard to just see the "other guy's" selfish motivations without acknowledging that there are some people on our side who will come out quite ahead. The fact that this is an oil White House can't be overlooked either.
However, "stabilizing the region" seems to be the major oil related driver. Iraq is seen as serving as a much-needed oil reserves counter to Saudi Arabia (how many al-queada cells can you find within those borders?) and forms the cornerstone of the neo-conservative "Wolfowitz" doctrine for remaking the region from a position of power, and the willingness to use aggression to achieve those goals..
The questions that remain are:
1. Will Jeffersonian Democracy take hold, overcoming some significant territorial and religious obstacles, or will the new government need another Hussein to keep the state together. As happy as the Kurds are in the North, and the Shi’as are in the south, for the downfall of Hussein there are certainly those in both groups who see this as a golden opportunity to achieve their own goals, which are at odds with our vision. We'll just have to see how it works out.
2. If democracy doesn't take hold, how long will US peacekeeping forces be required to man checkpoints and run patrols in the face of snipers and suicide bombers? The anticipated 2 years? 10 Years? We can't just pull up and leave like in Beirut or Somalia. For one, we own the Iraqi future now and for another, well, there's that oil again. Hopefully, some form of cooperative and representative democracy will take hold.
3. Will the broader goals of the Wolfowitz doctrine to stabilize the region be realized without moving down the list of other "Axis of Evil" countries after Iraq? Will a wave of regional democracy follow the defeat of Iraq, or will the "Arab street" harden it's stance against the West. Will it matter if it does? Will we lose the existing moderate states to radicalism? Again, time will tell. One vision of the doctrine has Israel reaching peace with the Palestinian's on Sharon's terms (an extension of the "Iron Wall" concept). The Blair vision of this issue might be quite different. For that matter Bush may not be buying in to the full doctrine (as established by the neo-conservatives) and see the need for significant concessions from Israel. Again, only time will tell.
In the end, the war might be the easiest part of this action. But, hopefully, these guys in Washington will turn out to be as smart as they think they are. Only time will tell.
Charon
