Sorry for a late answer... This Friday I was drinking beer, but it didn't help me and I damaged my foot limb
So you can now call me a lame Russian
I don't know how all this things will end. In less then two weeks occupants will surround Baghdad, and then they'll siege it, like Leningrad. I don't thing they'll try to storm it, if they dont want something like New Year 1995 in Grozniy.
Partizan warfare will continue there until the last enemy soldier will leave Iraq. Oil production probably will continue only where local tribes will get bribed by Americans, maybe only in the North.
When Saddam will be killed of exiled, the current regime will be replaced by Moslim fundamentalists, maybe in a form of "Islamic Republic of Iraq". Shia leaders already said they will wait until yankees will remove current administration and then fight them until they'll go away...
It is all very sad.
So far I can say that I can agree with our president. It was a big mistake. Bad analysys. USSR had special corps of political officers who specialized in Moslim (Turkey/Iran, our neighbous) analytics. Probably they made good advises to our government, so it didn't join the adventure.