Just took a look at the latest track and satellite photo. Bermuda looks to be almost a direct hit with typically the most destructive part of the storm... the northeast quadrant.
WTNT45 KNHC 051444
TCDAT5
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003
ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT VISIBLE AT THIS TIME ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...MICROWAVE DATA STILL SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE AND
WELL-DEFINED EYE. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE THAT INDICATED THAT THE EYE WAS LARGE AND ELONGATED. THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 951 BUT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 118
KNOTS. THIS DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS AT THIS
TIME. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEN SHOULD BEGIN
THEREAFTER...AS THE SHEAR INCREASES ANDTHE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS
COOL WATERS. FABIAN SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48
HOURS.
FABIAN IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. FABIAN INNER
CORE IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY CLOSE TO BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...UNFORTUNATELY...THE PROJECTED TRACK BRINGS THE EAST EYEWALL
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE ISLAND. FABIAN IS READY TO
RECURVE AND IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS...IT WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
BERMUDA IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING STRONG WINDS AND THE WEATHER SHOULD
GRADUALLY WORSEN. BERMUDA OFFICIALS AND RESIDENTS HAVE IMPLEMENTED
THEIR HURRICANE PLANS AND AT THIS TIME...WE CAN ONLY HOPE FOR THE
BEST.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/1500Z 30.8N 65.4W 105 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 33.0N 65.0W 105 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 35.5N 63.0W 100 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 37.5N 60.0W 90 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 40.0N 56.0W 80 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 08/1200Z 46.0N 46.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 09/1200Z 54.0N 31.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 10/1200Z 60.0N 10.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
Best of luck Curval, my thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.
