Originally posted by GtoRA2
Hmmm
You do not think hunting them down and making the cost of being a terrorist very high will work?
As far as Al-Q is concerned, it is working. The terrorist groups Israel faces have the advantage of a population base that indoctrinates suicide bombers from a very young age. Al-Q does not have this. In Arabic culture people like a winner. Al-Q hasn't 'won' in the eyes of the populations they recruit from for some time now. Ask yourself this - when was the last time you saw a televised rally like the ones shortly after 11SEP01 - the ones where you had people waving placards with bin Laden's face on them, etc.?
Al-Q doesn't have a lot in common with the terror groups Israel faces. They don't have the same pure, simple ideology - 'Destroy Israel and Return Palestine to it's Rightful Owners'. First the U.S. was evil because there were U.S. troops in Saudi. Now all Democracy is evil because it corrupts the pure disciples of Islam. That may work on scattered teenagers with nothing to lose, but Ali Babba may not think Democracy is so bad when one of his kids get sick and he can get to a doctor that can save him.
Israel isn't involved in a war against terror - they are involved in a war for their survival - being as they are still here, despite being 3 on 1'd almost since their beginning as a Nation, I'd say they are winning in a significant way.
The groups attacking Israel have a huge advantage as long as their are Nations neighboring Israel who support terrorist attacks against Israel. They cull some dumb-ass indoctinated teenagers every month or so and send them into Israel to blow up some women and kids. The terror groups don't put their experienced cadre at risk any more than is necessary. Their fund raising is sanctioned by Sovereign Nations. They have a relatively secure infrastructure. And their target is close by - they need to cross one border to 'get to work'.
Al-Q doesn't have it near as easy, especially since the Taliban went away. For every 'support specialist' (forger, fraud expert for generating funds, 'fixer', etc.) that they have in a safe place they probably have 2 that have 'gone to ground' in a 'hostile' Nation. These guys can't ask for direction, they can't receive directions, and every once in awhile someone in Gitmo gives up a little data that allows one of these guys to get picked up - he then gets grilled, gives up some data, etc.
Regardless of what certain politicians and media outlets say, Al-Q has lost no small # of experienced personnel that they are not going to be able to replace. Do you think a freelancer is going to do anything for Al-Q these days? When the money to betray them to the good guys is 3 times as good? Do you think Al-Q is going to trust a freelancer with all that reward money floating around?
Al-Q had a tougher mission than the guys targeting Israel. Except for instances like the U.S.S. Cole, where they could stage an op from 'friendly' territory (meaning Yemen, which is no longer so 'friendly') they needed the ability to position cells in different hemispheres for ops. They needed to keep those cells hidden. They were good with their COMSEC so they would arrange personal meetings between cell leaders and senior leadership in 'safe areas' (Afghanistan).
All of that is no longer a 'for sure' option. They have guys that need to travel but don't dare because they don't know if they are being looked for *yet* (which is something that lawyers who want all the documentation of every interrogation and/or prosecution revealed to everyone either don't get or don't give a damn about).
They were set up very well from a 'beat enemy COIN ops' standpoint because their leaders were trained by the U.S., U.K., France, etc. to operate as cells against the Soviets in Soviet controlled Afghanistan. This made them very hard to detect and penetrate.
But post-11SEP01, when basically the entire world of intelligence and CT put them on the 'burn these as$holes first' list, that structure became a hindrance. Because when a senior leader goes missing (dead? captured? did he talk? is he just hiding?) there's no automatic 'second in command' to take over from where that senior leader was when he was 'forced to leave'. Some of the other senior leadership probably has a good idea of what's going on, but the contact information isn't memorized by everyone, etc.
You see that system - that operational cell based system - it was developed by the CIA, the KGB, etc. So there was always a 'safe' HQ that had all the data *somewhere*. A place that could not be penetrated or destroyed. John Smith is running 7 cells each headed by some Eastern European recruit and each operating somewhere in the Soviet Bloc. There is no way that John Smith is every going 'over the fence'. If John Smith gets nabbed, 7 cells worth of guys are at risk. Each cell leader knows John Smith by a different name. Some of them think he works for the U.S., and a couple of them probably think he works for another Nation.
The 'John Smiths' of Al-Q are in hiding, or captured, or dead for the most part. There are still Al-Q cells - with no orders, no support, and no real way to contact HQ and find out what is going on. When you read about some senior Al-Q leader being captured in the news, they didn't leak that information to have Baskin Robbins sponsor a 'Free Ice Cream For Agency Guys' week. They leak that because sometimes such information makes people panic. "They got Habib? Holy Camel - he's our senior planner, they're gonna know about us before the week is out! We've got to cross the border before Wednesday and get some serious miles between us and this safehouse!".
Also there has never been a 'terrorist group' were everyone was commited to die for the cause. Some guys are the 'Gene Hackman' of terrorists - they go from group to group because that's all they've ever done and they make lots of $$$ doing it. The senior leaders are usually diehards. But it's a safe bet that no small number of Al-Q 'sleeper cells' have basically dissolved. Once some guys find out they aren't anonymous - that they can be zapped before they get the chance to park the truck bomb in front of the Rose Parade, they lose a little 'fanaticism'. Especially when the leaders are off the phone for months, etc.
The short version - the Israelis have a much tougher situation on their hands because they are fighting an enemy that can stage operations from a few km away and that enemy has a near-limitless supply of 'suicide attackers'. That's the case where the 'Hearts and Minds' statement really applies - the Palestinian people have to come to the understanding that the terrorist leaders who claim to be 'fighting their cause' are only using them as 'human bullets' not to deliver the Palestinians, but to destroy Israel. This is also starting to happen - Palestinian parents are beginning to get annoyed at terrorist recruiters cruising the cigarette joints where the kids hang out.
Mike/wulfie
(p.s. This is a 'quick and dirty' reply so please excuse the spelling. Also, I'm getting ready to 'go away' from regular computer access again for awhile so I'll get a chance to reply tomorrow and then I'll be offline - if I don't reply after that I'm not ignoring you).
