Author Topic: Nutchpatrick, Crowmaw, Eagler etc (Read 646 times)

Curval · « **on:** September 11, 2003, 01:16:18 PM »

You guys watching Isabelle?

Keep your heads up guys. This one is more powerful than Fabian right now, but fortunately a bit smaller in actual size...not that it would be any consolation if you get a direct hit.

It would take a massive shift to the north to hit us..thank goodness. Looks like Florida or maybe the Caronlinas will get whacked.

nuchpatrick · « **Reply #1 on:** September 11, 2003, 01:55:15 PM »

Yeah, I've been keeping a close eye on it.. I think Monday-Tuesday there will need to be concerned..Even have Plywood.. by that time my little 1950's florida will be blown into match stick's.. I'm glad my new home is going to be made of cinder block..but its 18 months away from being even done

I hate fragging Hurricane Ins too !!! Since I have lake front I pay 20% preimum for flooding even tho my home is on a high-non flooding plane.

Got the generator(s) ready and a nice inventory of Ice Makers. (We normally donate Ice out to those who need it)

Eagler · « **Reply #2 on:** September 11, 2003, 01:58:31 PM »

we need the rain

has been dry since Henriiieee slid by - removed some of the humidity but now the grass is straw again under the 90degree sun

Curval · « **Reply #3 on:** September 11, 2003, 01:58:35 PM »

Awesome that you have a generator man...I think you could probably get 10k for it right now here.

My father still has no power and his is one of about seven or eight thousand homes still down.

Concrete block is the only way to go man...congrats on the new house. No way they can complete it in the next week though huh?

nuchpatrick · « **Reply #4 on:** September 11, 2003, 02:03:58 PM »

Heh Curval See edit above ^

Naw, the place I'm moving to has a tree resriction. Meaning each lot has to be aproved for the home to be built on and a certain amount of trees have to be left on the lot... The lot selection I've picked has not been sited yet for homes yet. I have my name on a list for two lot's.

Curval · « **Reply #5 on:** September 11, 2003, 02:04:28 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Eagler
we need the rain

LOL!!!!

Scootter · « **Reply #6 on:** September 11, 2003, 02:04:50 PM »

I have a baddd feeling about Isabella, this bad girl needs to go away and be a fish storm.

If it hits Fl. at present wind speed and size it could make Andrew look like a bad thunderstorm. The amount of building on the east coast here in probably 25% more then when Andrew hit.

Lets all hope this one stays away.

Curval · « **Reply #7 on:** September 11, 2003, 02:07:11 PM »

Yea Scooter..it is a nasty one that is for sure.

If it hits us, which I sincerly doubt now, it will be a serious disaster. Many houses are still without roofs...supplies are limited as are workmen.

udet · « **Reply #8 on:** September 11, 2003, 02:31:31 PM »

'tis coming our way??

Apache · « **Reply #9 on:** September 11, 2003, 02:33:31 PM »

We really, really don't need another hit like Hugo in '89. Almost wiped us out.

nuchpatrick · « **Reply #10 on:** September 11, 2003, 02:34:16 PM »

Yeah, Udet.. ya better hide

We'll know for sure on monday..

Curval · « **Reply #11 on:** September 11, 2003, 02:35:50 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Apache
We really, really don't need another hit like Hugo in '89. Almost wiped us out.

Yea Apache..watch out man. She is taking a slight turn to the north that might allow Florida to escape...but that would put you in some serious do-do.

Good luck.

150mph sustained winds. Man...that is serious.

Scootter · « **Reply #12 on:** September 11, 2003, 02:41:51 PM »

Behold. the perfect storm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

look at the eyewall, it's as close to perfect a storm as I have ever seen:(

nuchpatrick · « **Reply #13 on:** September 11, 2003, 02:50:51 PM »

Update @ 5...

000
WTNT43 KNHC 111436
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2003

ISABEL IS MORE SYMMETRICAL-LOOKING THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY...AND IT
HAS A TEXTBOOK APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES.
THE WELL-DEFINED 25 N MI DIAMETER EYE IS EMBEDDED IN VERY DEEP
CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS AVERAGE ABOUT 6.7 GIVING A CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 130 KT. THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS IMPEDIMENTS IN
THE ENVIRONMENT...SO CHANGES IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TO BE DICTATED
PRIMARILY BY INNER-CORE PROCESSES. ISABEL SHOULD REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST NEAR 8 KT AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED IN
DEEP LAYER EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GLOBAL AND GFDL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ISABEL NEARS THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST...WHICH IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE NHC TRACK
IS ALSO FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS AND TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK. THE LATEST GFDL RUN IS A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF
THE OFFICIAL TRACK...AND THAT MODEL HAS BEEN TRENDING MORE AND MORE
TO THE RIGHT IN THE LAST FEW RUNS.

LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE TWO MOST IMPORTANT PLAYERS IN THE
STEERING OF ISABEL APPEAR TO BE THE RIDGE NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST
AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE WAY THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HANDLES
THESE FEATURES. SOME OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS...NOW SHOW
THE TROUGH AS THE MORE DOMINANT SYSTEM. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE
THE CASE...THEN THE HURRICANE COULD TURN MORE NORTHWARD THAN SHOWN
HERE.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 21.4N 54.5W 130 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 21.5N 56.0W 130 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 21.8N 58.0W 130 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 22.2N 60.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 22.8N 61.9W 120 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 24.0N 65.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 25.0N 69.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 26.5N 72.0W 115 KT

Scootter · « **Reply #14 on:** September 11, 2003, 03:53:45 PM »

Update at 5 edt cat 5 winds now 160mph sustained!! at surface higher gusts.