Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => Aces High General Discussion => Topic started by: Lusche on January 03, 2009, 12:36:55 PM
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Like last year, I will present a few selected stats and facts about AH2 in 2008.Some will surprise, some will will be as expected. Some you will drool about the presented material, many of you will think "wtf?". To them I say: Yes I know, I have no life :)
I will offer a some of my own opinions, but of course it's mostly up to you to interpret those charts.
I will concentrate on LW Arenas exclusively. One reason for this:
(http://img55.imageshack.us/img55/4356/arenacomparisondj9.jpg)
You can see the popularity of EW & MW arenas is quite limited. But quite interesting is the peak in MW usage in Tour 106, because that's exactly when the threads about the decline of the MW in regards of player quality & behaviour appeared. ;)
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Plane Usage
As usual, "usage" is being defined by adding kills and deaths. It's the best approximation we have due to lack of any data on number of sorties.
(http://img55.imageshack.us/img55/8071/planeusagedf8.jpg)
Nothing has changed at the top. The top 4 are still the same (and in same order) as in 2007, but while the P-51D has now a ~10% bigger share than last year, the La-7's popularity has significantly declined:
(http://img58.imageshack.us/img58/9960/la7usagewz3.jpg)
The decline in popularity has been a trend for some time, but after the update, the numbers reached a new low (well, kinda "low" anyway) and haven't recovered since then.
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Fighter Kills by ENY
(http://img399.imageshack.us/img399/7294/fighterkillsenyiu7.jpg)
This chart may surprise those that haven't seen last years analysis. It's common knowledge that almost all fighters used in LW are ENY 5 monsters, but as we can see, that's not entirely true. Only when ENY goes >25 the numbers drop massively, even more so when you consider that approximately 50% of all kills in that category are made by the 190A8.
BTW, the distribution of kills between those 4 ENY groups has not changed in comparison to 2007
Frame Families
(http://img61.imageshack.us/img61/2904/fighterframefamiliesec5.jpg)
In this chart, I have split up the fighter kills by families - All kills made the various types sharing the same basic airframe (=same icon until D800) are lumped together. "Spitfire" includes Seafires, FW190 includes the Ta 152H-1. All fighters not part of a "family" in AH2 are listed under "Others".
No surprise the Spitfire family is ahead of the competition as includes 7 different but mostly very popular models (16, 9, 8, Seafire), whereas the P-51 has only 2 models, one them (Pony B) is far from being popular in the LW Arena.
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Fighter K/D
(http://img61.imageshack.us/img61/2650/fighterkdet4.jpg)
Marked in red are the planes currently perked in AH2. Like always, the Tempest, the supreme pick & run plane, is undisputed #1
What can not be seen in that chart above is the castration of the 262, which happend with the update of this model in tour 104:
(http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/8094/clipboard01ga5.jpg)
(picture shows ME 262 K/D over the last 24 months)
I can still only speculate about the reason for that decline. The worsened front view could be part of it, but I (subjectively) suspect the 262 has a glass tail section now - but since the LAN play was disabled too sometime ago, I can't test it. (But if someone is up for some very boring 2h in DA... ;))
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Moving Mud
The Il2 update and the introduction of the Wirbelwind did change the air-ground war
The first chart is showing the major airborne tank killers of AH2. It's based on kills of the Panzer IV, which is still the most popular tank in AH2:
(http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/4109/tankkillersej0.jpg)
First impact on that chart was the introsuction of the Wirbelwind, which seemingly had a huge impact specifically on the B-25H's usage as an anti-tank plane. Which isn't very surprising considering the 25 if a large, slow and not very maneuverable target.
The second, and much larger impact, was made by the redesign of the Il-2. The addition of the NS-37 cannons has made killing tanks as easy as using a can-opener. And as this way of killing tanks can't even be stopped by killing ords, it's no wonder that the Il2 is now utterly dominating.
The other side
(http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/5453/aakilldistrirc9.jpg)
No surprise here - the appearance of the Wirbelwind has made the M-16 a hangar queen, and the Ostwind is now a specialists vehicle for special situations - for example protecting vehicle bases from low bombers.
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K/D per country
(http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/1682/countryqi6.jpg)
No comment ;)
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The MW is slightly skewed. Falcon23, our CO, couldn't get into LW. So RT joined him there until he could.
BTW, really like the graphs.
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I can still only speculate about the reason for that decline. The worsened front view could be part of it, but I (subjectively) suspect the 262 has a glass tail section now.
It also suffers more magic-bullet pilot-kills and the engines catch on fire more easily.
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Stop HYPMOTIZING me with your circular graphs!
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Lusche
Great work I'm a Sales Developement Analyst by trade, I can appreciate the time it takes to assemble the table info then do the chart work.
Good Job Bub
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P-38 series has the highest K/D that is not perked :D
The Wirblewind/Ostwind/M16 chart was of no surprise. I still prefer my Ostwind over the WW
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Surpises me how much the F6f was used
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Outstanding job Lusche..as usual :salute The top K/D going to the 38J came as quite a surprise to me. I've also noticed more mustangs in LW :mad: but their K/D is way down the line. So maybe they're not as "uber" as some would have us to believe?
I enjoy the stats very much and thank-you for all the hard work you put into this :salute
P.S. did anyone notice the Rooks K/D compared to the other countries? :P
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The CV planes seem to feature higher in the usage charts than I would expect. Possibly it is due to the short nature of CV flights upping the numbers of kills and deaths per hour. Take off adjacent to an enemy field, straight into a fight, get shot down, up again and so on. Land planes have on average longer flight times on offensive sorties.
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P.S. did anyone notice the Rooks K/D compared to the other countries? :P
So much for the argument that there's really no difference between the chess pieces. When I flew as a knight, I was always dismayed to see the Rooks approaching 5k ft higher than what I considered a high perch against the Bishops.
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Excellent job. I would disagree about the IL-2 being dominating. Yes the airplane itself is but players are adopting tactics to it and many GV offensive actions now bring wirbels with them, and wirbels are IL-2 killers. That and there seems to be a bit more organization and teamwork, guys are bringing in VH supplies...ect
IF? There is air superiority, AND, there are mostly tanks in an attacking group? The IL-2 is very dominating. Most of the time I dont even bother upping ords with them. However if there is a large enemy fighter presence its difficult keeping an IL-2 focused on armor. All in all the 37mm IL-2 and the wirbels have enhanced the game , I believe. The LA-7 usage reflects what we'd already talked about. Does that sharp drop spike coincide with the LA being remodeled?
Thanks.
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I've also noticed more mustangs in LW :mad: but their K/D is way down the line. So maybe they're not as "uber" as some would have us to believe?
New guys. Remember...a lot of kids come in and instantly up a 51 (mainly because it's pre-selected) because it was "the best fighter of WW2"
P.S. did anyone notice the Rooks K/D compared to the other countries? :P
I did. I wouldn't say it's because we have the best sticks...but...look at our opposition :P
So much for the argument that there's really no difference between the chess pieces. When I flew as a knight, I was always dismayed to see the Rooks approaching 5k ft higher than what I considered a high perch against the Bishops.
Bish have become the new rooks so to speak...I always find bish higher than me
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Outstanding job Lusche..as usual :salute The top K/D going to the 38J came as quite a surprise to me. I've also noticed more mustangs in LW :mad: but their K/D is way down the line. So maybe they're not as "uber" as some would have us to believe?
The Pony "suffers" from having a great name. Everyone new to AH has heard about it, most know from history channel it's the best fighter of WW2 (snicker) , and it's an icon to all those American noobs joining the game. And huge popularity means many, many average and sub-average players, that vastly outnumber the AH vets flying th 51D
The 38J the opposite - the 38's aren't that much of a public icon (beyond WW2 aviation nerds, that is), so it doesn't appeal to the masses as much. And new/average players that do hop into the 38 usually perfer the 38L, partly for being more suited to air to ground work, partly because "later = better". This results in the SAPP having the opportunity to have a big impact on the 38J k/D. In 2007 , the 38J's K/D rank had been lower.
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I believe. The LA-7 usage reflects what we'd already talked about. Does that sharp drop spike coincide with the LA being remodeled?
Yes.
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The Pony "suffers" from having a great name. Everyone new to AH has heard about it, most know from history channel it's the best fighter of WW2 (snicker) , and it's an icon to all those American noobs joining the game. And huge popularity means many, many average and sub-average players, that vastly outnumber the AH vets flying th 51D
The 38J the opposite - the 38's aren't that much of an public icon (beyond WW2 aviation nerds, that is), so it doesn't appeal to the masses as much. And new/average players that do hop into the 38 usually perfer the 38L, partly for being more suited to air to ground work, partly because "later = better". This results in the SAPP having the opportunity to have a big impact on the 38J k/D. In 2007 , the 38J's K/D had been much lower.
When I first started playing AHII, I found the 38s to be the most stable planes in the game as a gun platform. I had played sims before, so I knew how to get on someone's tail, I just couldn't hit them (sadly.)
I got an old film from about late 2006 to early 2007 of me killing a B-24 in a 38L. The 38L and 38J were my two main rides for a long time till the La-7 and N1k got a hold of me in November of last year. Then... the Jug, F4U, P39, P38, P51, and F4U again.
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Hey... This American noob's first flight was with an F6F off a carrier! :D
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Lusche can you explain me what an "introsuction" is ?
:D
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I think the high K/D of the 38J and the stepped up usage of the F6F directly relates to the dedicated MW arena people. Both planes have outstanding ord loadouts and can hold their own very well against any plane in the MW plane set. This makes them a great all around aircraft. :salute
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The CV planes seem to feature higher in the usage charts than I would expect. Possibly it is due to the short nature of CV flights upping the numbers of kills and deaths per hour. Take off adjacent to an enemy field, straight into a fight, get shot down, up again and so on. Land planes have on average longer flight times on offensive sorties.
Not only that I have a mission I post called........F6. Then Ghi has a mission and Joker has a mission all incorporating the F6. Just outstanding mission plane.
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I think the high K/D of the 38J and the stepped up usage of the F6F directly relates to the dedicated MW arena people. Both planes have outstanding ord loadouts and can hold their own very well against any plane in the MW plane set. This makes them a great all around aircraft. :salute
The stats that Lusche posted are LW stats.
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The stats that Lusche posted are LW stats.
Well....so much for my brilliant theory :lol
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Lusche can you explain me what an "introsuction" is ?
:D
Me fail English? That's unpossible! :D
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look what happened to the il2 percentage of gv kills after the update those 37 kill tanks so well
the rooks always go in at atleast 7k to 10k we always do that and we have always worked to gether
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Great work. Thanks for devoting your time and the for the clear explanations.
HONK!
Gooss
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The 38 jocks will reign supreme :devil
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(http://img55.imageshack.us/img55/4356/arenacomparisondj9.jpg)
You can see the popularity of EW & MW arenas is quite limited. But quite interesting is the peak in MW usage in Tour 106, because that's exactly when the threads about the decline of the MW in regards of player quality & behaviour appeared. ;)
Did you mean the decline of player quality in LW? I remember a lot of good posts being made from 104 to 106 about MW.
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Lusche: thanks for all the work.
Re: Fighter K/D. Why is the Spit XIV perked? It seems way out of place to be perked.
Re: Country K/D. Do you have data on total sorties by country? It seems to me that Rooks are often in the majority and it also seems to me that people in the majority often win (fields and fights).
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Nice job Lusche :salute
Now we know what the average K/D per plane is. Then the individual difference from average is the MAN.. and not the plane, right ;)
I know for fact that most Finns fly in Rooks... but I did not know it made such a difference :rolleyes: ;)
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Re: Fighter K/D. Why is the Spit XIV perked? It seems way out of place to be perked.
And the P-38J seems to be first in line to be perked...
Three kinds of lies; Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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Rooks=shade vulchers
:noid
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Lusche, you are the man for doing this. Very cool stats to investigate! :salute
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It seems to me that Rooks have always had the largest concentration of good sim pilots. I had the opportunity to frequently switch sides between 104 - 106 and definitely noticed a difference between the three countries in their ability to communicate, (check6's, who needs help and where ect.) Take bases and organize missions.
I'm not saying the other countries don't have good sim pilots, I'm just saying there seems to be more on the rook side.
Like most countries, Rooks seem to go through phases of not being and being organized when it comes to controlling the map. The last few tours, from my prospective anyway, has been more about furballing. Time zones and time of year have a lot to do with these fluctuations as well. (east, west and over seas)
Bish seem to have the most organized attacks and do communicate well. Knits mostly seem scattered and confused most of the time with a short attn. span. Communication seems to have never been their strong suit. They hold their own of course and have some great squads but I think they may suffer from a lack of country structure.
Normally it seems that the country with the most rounded players and squads for the month do best. What I mean by this is if you have 10 squads that like to take bases and 10 squads that like to furball and 10 squads that take charge and do it all (GV, bomb, Defend, Take bases, organize missions, do fighter sweeps, vocal on country channel and able to command) Its better than having lopsided #'s like lets say, more furballers than anything else :frown:.
I respect the majority of this community and their squads. I'm not picking on anyone or any squad. I was just making an observation and sharing my opinion.
:angel: :salute
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FWIW,I would like to also see if possible,MAP resets by country...I think that would be very interesting..
Falcon23
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Really cool Lusche, Some I could have guessed and some were surprising. It's amazing how the updates effect plane usage as much as they do.
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Interesting to see how much the WW changed the ground war. Personally I think she should be perked. Wasn't the Wirblewind even rarer than the Ostwind?
I'd also be curious to see what would happen if HTC ever gave us the AP + HE mixed load the B-25H DID carry (documentation is linked on the Air and Vehicles board somewhere) for the 75mm. Those five AP rounds would make a difference since the 25 would no longer have to get suicidally low and close to punch through the armor.
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should get a break down of kills per squad, and then one by kills per squad percapita
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A lot of great info there Lusche! ty
How long did it take?
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Very interesting stats Lusche, nice job. :aok
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(http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/5453/aakilldistrirc9.jpg)
Chog anyone?
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P38J having the highest k/d ratio among non-perked planes did not surprise me. Dedicated P38 drivers have been around long enough to know ACM very well. Given that many new players fly the P38L in missions and as an ord platform, only true dedicated P38 pilots fly the J. Albeit I fly the L, I didn't find the J a surprise.
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I'm not surprised about the J either, it seems that most of the guys I wing with or fight against in it are much more knowledgable than the noobs in the L. And I remember when I used to get laughed at in the 475th for flying the J almost exclusively about 3 years ago... ;)
Now to get the K/D of the Ki-61 up and really start surprising people... :t
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Did you mean the decline of player quality in LW? I remember a lot of good posts being made from 104 to 106 about MW.
No, I did indeed mean MW
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FWIW,I would like to also see if possible,MAP resets by country...I think that would be very interesting..
Falcon23
That would need someone sitting in the arenas and writing down all the resets ;)
How long did it take?
Not that long, but I can't really tell. Did most of the perparations some time ago, during off-peak times, or when the maps sucked for me, or while flying buffs
Re: Fighter K/D. Why is the Spit XIV perked? It seems way out of place to be perked.
There are some interesting threads in "Aircraft & Vehicles" in that topic with a lot of disagreements ;)
Re: Country K/D. Do you have data on total sorties by country? It seems to me that Rooks are often in the majority and it also seems to me that people in the majority often win (fields and fights).
Sorties are not recorded, and adding kills & deaths is not very meaningful when analyzing countries
Another info on that matter: Rooks having a significant better overall K/D isn't a new develpment in any way. At leas as long as I am playing, it has been Rooks #1, Knight #2 and Bishops # 3. Only recently Bish & Knight K/D are getting about equal.
So much for "all countries are the same" :devil
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Great stuff, Snailman. Thanks :salute
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I wuv you Lusche!!! :D
In a non-sexual way of course...but I really do wuv you!
Next to my wife, my son and my cat you're next! :salute
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I wuv you Lusche!!! :D
In a non-sexual way of course...but I really do wuv you!
Next to my wife, my son and my cat you're next! :salute
:uhoh
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(http://img61.imageshack.us/img61/2650/fighterkdet4.jpg) And this graph, of course, explains why the P47N has an ENY of 5, whilst the P51 has an 8
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Another info on that matter: Rooks having a significant better overall K/D isn't a new develpment in any way. At leas as long as I am playing, it has been Rooks #1, Knight #2 and Bishops # 3. Only recently Bish & Knight K/D are getting about equal.
So much for "all countries are the same" :devil
Yea, I proved the, "All countries are exactly identical theory", was a complete load of festering, maggot ridden crap years ago. Anyone who says they're the same in terms of either pervasive behavior or cumulative end results is simply spewing a torrential maelstrom of stinky propaganda diarrhea that would make Joseph Gerbils proud.
I did that country analysis to confirm my suspicion that my direct observations were supported by hard data back then. Your data just reconfirms is wasn't just a two-year trend, but a permanent pattern with very little, if any, indication of significant change in five years, which in itself is quite remarkable considering a lot of individuals have left AH, joined AH or changed countries since then either permanently or on a rotation basis.
Birds of a feather flock together, always have, always will. AH's country demographics was, is and always will be a reflection of that most basic human psychosocial dynamic.
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P-47N has a low K/D becuse most people suicide into the tower trying to pork with it.
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Oh no BJ! The numbers put up by MA'ers, lemmings and brain-damaged lemurs included, are the word of God! We must believeth in them, even when they tell us the P-47D-11 needs a lower ENY number than the P-47N.
Or at least make our Electric-Monks believe it for us... :D
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Now to get the K/D of the Ki-61 up and really start surprising people... :t
It is 13th. I'd say mission accomplished and I slaughtered many in it.
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P-47N has a low K/D becuse most people suicide into the tower trying to pork with it.
Well, if it HAS a pathetic eny, for whatever reason, then it's ENY should be at LEAST as high as a P51, which has far better numbers across the board
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Interesting to see how much the WW changed the ground war. Personally I think she should be perked. Wasn't the Wirblewind even rarer than the Ostwind?
No, there were almost twice the number of WWs built vice the Ostie. 87 vs. 44. That's right a whole 87 WW built for the entire war! So yes, the WW should be perked. Thus, more m16 usage (should) occur; which we would know about 'cause Snailman's metrics will tell us so. :D
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If you were using these stats to figure out what you were doing right or wrong, what would you find?
I don't think the desired results of new additions and or changes were met.
I am happy there are less LA's in the air though.
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It seems to me that Rooks have always had the largest concentration of good sim pilots. I had the opportunity to frequently switch sides between 104 - 106 and definitely noticed a difference between the three countries in their ability to communicate, (check6's, who needs help and where ect.) Take bases and organize missions..................... ...........
Lots of folks rotate, but I can think of at least half a dozen guy/squads off the top of my head who are among the best in the game,(also with awesome k/d's) who are ALWAYS Rook---Skatsr, Shawk--(despite his legions of detractors, he can spank most anyone one on one, if he chooses to)... Widewing, Lynx...there are others, just don't come to mind right now, need that 3rd cup coffee...Pity we can't see the breakdown of base captures in LW, I'm guessing Bish would have more than Nits and Rooks combined
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What's really amazing is how high the p47-25 ranked.
Helm ...out
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So much for the argument that there's really no difference between the chess pieces. When I flew as a knight, I was always dismayed to see the Rooks approaching 5k ft higher than what I considered a high perch against the Bishops.
noticed the 5k difference too. was on the Uteris map last night, fight at A1-A19.10k wasn't high enough, so i went 16k in a 109, 16 still wasnt high enough. had a spit 16 2k above my head :mad:
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Let's not forget that the Rook is a stronger piece than the Bishop or Knight in the game of Chess, too. ;)
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Let's not forget that the Rook is a stronger piece than the Bishop or Knight in the game of Chess, too. ;)
yeah and just like a bishop, they can also run the other way as far as they want/can. Knights are the only ones who can make a turn on the same move. :aok
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It seems to me that Rooks have always had the largest concentration of good sim pilots. I had the opportunity to frequently switch sides between 104 - 106 and definitely noticed a difference between the three countries in their ability to communicate, (check6's, who needs help and where ect.) Take bases and organize missions.
I'm not saying the other countries don't have good sim pilots, I'm just saying there seems to be more on the rook side.
Like most countries, Rooks seem to go through phases of not being and being organized when it comes to controlling the map. The last few tours, from my prospective anyway, has been more about furballing. Time zones and time of year have a lot to do with these fluctuations as well. (east, west and over seas)
Bish seem to have the most organized attacks and do communicate well. Knits mostly seem scattered and confused most of the time with a short attn. span. Communication seems to have never been their strong suit. They hold their own of course and have some great squads but I think they may suffer from a lack of country structure.
Normally it seems that the country with the most rounded players and squads for the month do best. What I mean by this is if you have 10 squads that like to take bases and 10 squads that like to furball and 10 squads that take charge and do it all (GV, bomb, Defend, Take bases, organize missions, do fighter sweeps, vocal on country channel and able to command) Its better than having lopsided #'s like lets say, more furballers than anything else :frown:.
I respect the majority of this community and their squads. I'm not picking on anyone or any squad. I was just making an observation and sharing my opinion.
:angel: :salute
you hit it right on the head, I couldn't have said it better my self :salute
opposum
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Thanks Lusche. Nicely done again.... Happy New Year! ;)
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Knits mostly seem scattered and confused most of the time with a short attn. span. Communication seems to have never been their strong suit. They hold their own of course and have some great squads but I think they may suffer from a lack of country structure.
I'm a Knight and that does sound like the Knights. Of course the tradeoff is that Knights (and Bish) do not have to listen to Tripl5 on range...
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I'm a Knight and that does sound like the Knights. Of course the tradeoff is that Knights (and Bish) do not have to listen to Tripl5 on range...
What makes you think we listen to him?
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What makes you think we listen to him?
lol .squelch tripl5 ....for teh win. :aok
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:lol @ rooks K/D ratio
thanks lusche
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yeah and just like a bishop, they can also run the other way as far as they want/can. Knights are the only ones who can make a turn on the same move. :aok
:lol
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Let's not forget that the Rook is a stronger piece than the Bishop or Knight in the game of Chess, too. ;)
Rooks are usually my bioches in chess. They can set up some pretty good moves. :aok
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From the graph, it looks like all the La7 flyers went to the P51.
(anyone surprised?)
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(http://www.chgs.umn.edu/museum/responses/bak/images/BishopKnightRook.jpg)
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From the graph, it looks like all the La7 flyers went to the P51.
(anyone surprised?)
I have a hard time to deduct that from the graphs provided in this thread so far ;)
But your post made me take another look at it:
(http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/7801/top7hp4.jpg)
When La-7 usage went down, not only P-51D gained but also Spit 16 and N1K, and the Spitfire gained even more than the P-51D. Surprisingly, it seems that the P-51 may have gained most from N1K losses after version 2.13 (Tour 106)
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great stats Lusche :)
your country graph is the main reason i rarely fight rooks. they are ALWAYS higher than me, no matter what alt i use. They often have more players in any given square 25miles too, so often end up getting picked, or start a good fight with one only to be jumped by someone else. Team work indeed, and that's why there KD is highest.... They fly like Americans in WWII.
Knits and Bish are a bit like Japanese. Lack many doctrines and suffer at the hands of a better enemy...
...anyway.... enough of that.
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great stats Lusche :)
your country graph is the main reason i rarely fight rooks. they are ALWAYS higher than me, no matter what alt i use. They often have more players in any given square 25miles too, so often end up getting picked, or start a good fight with one only to be jumped by someone else. Team work indeed, and that's why there KD is highest.... They fly like Americans in WWII.
Knits and Bish are a bit like Japanese. Lack many doctrines and suffer at the hands of a better enemy...
...anyway.... enough of that.
i would describe you as Russians because we lose bases ether because of a surprise attack or you out number us
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HTC says the FM on the La hasn't changed, but it feels much more heavy, mushy. I think this is a subtle cause for folks leaving it for other planes.
ENY limitations almost never kick in, so I can't really blame that on the loss of the La7 pilots, but I did notice a while ago it is far far less frequent.
Spit16 pilots are everywhere, however. And spit8s, only a few mph slower and climb/turn the same or better.
(rather than all the "unperk the 14!" shouts, we should be hearing "Perk the 16/8!" hehehehe)
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Knits and Bish are a bit like Japanese. Lack many doctrines and suffer at the hands of a better enemy...
My perception: Bish are impatient, have no clue how to at least hold thier own against enemy, and have no clue about how to get to the heart of an enemy's advance, a.k.a. porking vital strat. Rooks are birds of a feather. Very well organized, patient- hence the "orbital approach", and demonstrate quite solidly how to advance, resupply, pork, fight, etc... Knights I know little about.
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Knights I know little about.
Think "trying to herd cats".
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Think "trying to herd cats".
:rofl :rofl :rofl
I can picture what that might look like :rofl
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Does the Drop in the N1k usage happen after the remodel? :confused:
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Does the Drop in the N1k usage happen after the remodel? :confused:
Yes
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If you were using these stats to figure out what you were doing right or wrong, what would you find?
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You'd find out that 38J pilots do it better :)
Good thing I'm a 38G pilot or I'd have driven the stats down.
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Sorry for flying tonight and driving up the P-38J stats.
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I blame the decrease of usage of the La-7 on the Bish. I haven't seen the NOE La-7 raids as frequent. Of course Knights in the last week have been outnumbered by 100 a couple of times and the eny did just make it over 5 just once. Think the bish are using the Typhoons more. Just what I've seen.
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I believe the La-7 has been defanged and falls apart easily. The Bish did a good job in taking Bases last night a-13, a-17, a-15 with a combination of GV's, Bombers and fighters. We Rooks stopped them at the next base. A lot of Rook kills come defending bases where we will defend viciously against the incoming hordes that have to fly longer. Got 3 kills had my engine shot out and was still able to glide to a sucessful landing. :aok
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rather than all the "unperk the 14!" shouts, we should be hearing "Perk the 16/8!" hehehehe
+1 vote
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Hi Lusche:
Thanks for putting in all the hard work!!! :aok
There are several issues with the stats however. One major one that needs to be considered is that combining kills+deaths is double counting. I know we went over this issue a long time ago before but it bears repeating. Have you removed the double counting from the equation? If not we have the following major issues.
1) For each model you would be double counting kills/deaths for a given model vs. itself.
2) The aggregate totals for your %'s would also be off by overcounting kills/deaths for all models.
Consider the following matrix:
| | A Kills | B Kills | C Kills | | Total Deaths |
| A Deaths | | 5 | 5 | 5 | | 15 |
| B Deaths | | 4 | 2 | 9 | | 15 |
| C Deaths | | 1 | 1 | 13 | | 15 |
|
| Total Kills | | 10 | 8 | 27 | | 45 |
If we us the Kills+Deaths method if we are examining Plane C for instance we would get the following:
15 Kills + 27 Deaths = 42
The problem is this number is double counting the kills and deaths for Plane C vs Plane C so in this scenario we are over counting by 13. The number should be 29, not 42 in this example.
Secondly if we are basing the % on the aggregate totals of all kills + all deaths then the total is off as well because we are including double counts for all models. For instance back to our example if we just count all kills + deaths we get:
45 kills + 45 deaths = 90
Removing the double count in the total would mean subtracting (5+2+13=20). So the total number that we should be using is 70 not 90. The double counting in this case is inflating our total by almost 30%.
Tango, XO
412th FS Braunco Mustangs
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No I just added kills & deaths.
And I don't see the need to remove "kills vs itself", because I don't see it as double counting at all. Why? Because there are two players involved, both flying the same plane type. I see every kill as two "events", one kill and one death. One player wins, one player dies, regardless if it was Spit 16 vs P51D or Spit 16 vs Spit 16. If I would remove one "event" from a Spit 16 vs Spit 16 kill, I would basically remove one player, one "sortie" from the data pool. It would also distort the numbers again, because some planes with frequent usage and sufficient range (P-51) will fight more frequently vs each other, while rarer planes with short range have less opportunity to kill each other (Me 163, La-7)
And I'm just addign up the number of "events" to get a rough feel for how much a plane is used in the MA, in lieu of better data like sorties flown.
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No I just added kills & deaths.
And I don't see the need to remove "kills vs itself", because I don't see it as double counting at all. Why? Because there are two players involved, both flying the same plane type. I see every kill as two "events", one kill and one death. One player wins, one player dies, regardless if it was Spit 16 vs P51D or Spit 16 vs Spit 16.
And I'm just addign up the number of "events" to get a rough feel for how much a plane is used in the MA, in lieu of better data like sorties flown.
It's matrix math. You are double counting some of the events. Take a look at the example above. If we look at Model C:
Kills = 5 + 9 + 13
Deaths = 1 + 1 + 13
We are counting 13 twice. The 13 is 13 events, not 26 events.
This number also affects the total aggregate because you have to remove all the double counts from the total %.
Tango, XO
412th FS Braunco Mustangs
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Let's take an example:
Fighter A) A very frequent and long ranged fighter, thus quite often fighting his own kind. Let's say a P-51
Fighter B) Somewhat less frequent and very short range, so it naturally happens to kill it's own kind less frequent. Let's say: La-7
Premise:
The P-51 kills 30 P-51's and 20 La-7's
The La-7 kills 30 P-51's and 5 La-7s
My version (simple kills & deaths):
P-51 has 50 kills and 60 deaths = 110
La-7 has 35 kills and 25 deaths = 60
Result: P-51 has usage number 65%, La-7 35%
Your version (removing all kills on "itself")
P-51 has 20 kills and 30 deaths = 50
La-7 has 30 kills and 20 deaths = 50
Result both planes have usage number 50%. Which would lead to the conclusion that both planes are having about the same commonness, which is not the case when you look at the raw data.
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No I just added kills & deaths.
And I don't see the need to remove "kills vs itself", because I don't see it as double counting at all. Why? Because there are two players involved, both flying the same plane type. I see every kill as two "events", one kill and one death.
The problem is that the Kills+Deaths by model approach doesn't treat every kill as two events. It only treats same model vs. same model situation as two events.
Tango, XO
412th FS Braunco Mustangs
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Ships passing in the night. Let me look at your latest post and consider :).
Tango, XO
412th FS Braunco Mustangs
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Ships passing in the night.
(http://bp0.blogger.com/_7qJTXNnLPIc/R85k1CDYWjI/AAAAAAAAABk/101NkKh_w9o/s320/Ships+Passing+in+the+Night.jpg)
:)
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| | A Kills | B Kills | C Kills | | Total Deaths |
| A Deaths | | 5 | 5 | 5 | | 15 |
| B Deaths | | 4 | 2 | 9 | | 15 |
| C Deaths | | 1 | 1 | 13 | | 15 |
|
| Total Kills | | 10 | 8 | 27 | | 45 |
If we us the Kills+Deaths method if we are examining Plane C for instance we would get the following:
15 Kills + 27 Deaths = 42
I'm just trying to follow this discussion. I understand what you are saying about the aggregate total, but on the other hand, the results are not raw totals but percentages.
On your grid. Via Lusche's method C=15+27=42 42/90=46.667% usage
HMM on the grid C is responisble for 33.3% of all deaths, and 60% of all kills. The average of those 2 percentages gives me Lusche's number.
C=33.3% of deaths and C=27/45=60% of kills. (.33+.6)/2=46.667% average
B=33.3% of deaths and 22.2% of kills (.333+.222)/2=27.778%
A=33.3% of deaths and 17.7% of kills (.333+.1778)/2=25.555%
100%=All kills and deaths. While we do not have true data points for all true usage, an average between the percentage of total kills and percentage of total deaths seems like a resonable metric.
Via what you've said
C=29 / Ajusted total=70 29/70=41.4%
B=21/70=33.3%
A=20/70=28.5%
I look at this and percentage wise I am a bit perplexed. 100%=deaths+kills minus same plane kills? C is still responisble for 33.3% of all deaths, and 60% of all kills. How do we get to 41.4% usage from those 2 numbers? Since we are looking at percentage results, what are we gaining by removing planeocide :lol events?
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hehe :).
OK my statement still stands. The kills+deaths by model approach doesn't treat every kill as a double event. It only treats the same model vs. same model as a double event therefore you need to remove the double count in this scenario. I'm not saying remove all kills for same model on model. If just have to remove the double count.
A clarification using your example:
| P51K | La7K | Total D |
| P51D | 30 | 20 | 50 |
| La7D | 30 | 5 | 35 |
| Total K | 60 | 25 | |
Let's look at the P-51. The kills+deaths by model math only counts 20 deaths of the P-51 by the La7 and 30 kills of the La7 by the P-51 both once but it counts the 30 kills of the P-51 on itself twice.
The kills+deaths by model approach doesn't treat every kill as two events. That's why you have to adjust it one way or the other to count it correctly. You either have to double the other kills and deaths to count them twice or remove the double count for the same model.
2ndly to clarify, my fix is not to remove all the kills for a given model of itself, just the double count so that you're counting it only once.
So the math works like this:
P-51: kills(30+20) + deaths(30) = 80
30 p-51 deaths left off because it's counted once in the kills already
La7: kills(30+5) + deaths(20) = 55
5 la-7 deaths left off because it's counted once in the kills already
Tango, XO
412th FS Braunco Mustangs
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Murdr:
I'll try to explain with a pictoral example.
Tango, XO
412th FS Braunco Mustangs
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Yea, I proved the, "All countries are exactly identical theory", was a complete load of festering, maggot ridden crap years ago. Anyone who says they're the same in terms of either pervasive behavior or cumulative end results is simply spewing a torrential maelstrom of stinky propaganda diarrhea that would make Joseph Gerbils proud.
I did that country analysis to confirm my suspicion that my direct observations were supported by hard data back then. Your data just reconfirms is wasn't just a two-year trend, but a permanent pattern with very little, if any, indication of significant change in five years, which in itself is quite remarkable considering a lot of individuals have left AH, joined AH or changed countries since then either permanently or on a rotation basis.
Birds of a feather flock together, always have, always will. AH's country demographics was, is and always will be a reflection of that most basic human psychosocial dynamic.
Everytime I read one of your posts I have trouble imagining how any single human body could hold so much ego.
:aok
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The kills+deaths by model approach doesn't treat every kill as a double event. It only treats the same model vs. same model as a double event therefore you need to remove the double count in this scenario.
It's simply not true. It's not counting double. Removing model vs model kills would greatly skew the numbers, which are to reflect usage. Another, last, example:
4 Players taking off. One Spit, one LA, two P-51. Four sorties. Two of them (=50%) made in P-51
The Spit kills the La. One Pony kills another Pony.
Result:
Spit (1 kill) Usage=1 = 25%
La-7 (1 death) Usage=1 = 25%
P-51 (1 kill and 1 death) Usage=2 = 50%
When removing same model kills, it would be
Spit Usage=1 = 50%
La7- Usage=1 = 50%
P-51 Usage=0 = 0%
Which one does reflect reality better? ;)
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It's simply not true. It's not counte double. Removing model vs model kills would greatly skew the numbers, which are to reflect usage. Another, last, example:
4 Players taking off. One Spit, one LA, two P-51. Four sorties. Two of them (=50%) made in P-51
The Spit kills the La. One Pony kills another Pony.
Result:
Spit Usage=1
La-7 Usage=1
P-51 Usage=2
When removing same model kills, it would be
Spit Usage=1
La7- Usage=1
P-51 Usage=0
Well, technically using what I proposed it would be:
Spit Usage=1
La7 Usage=1
P-51 Usage=1
But your example is a good one because it convinces me that I'm wrong :). Sorry for the fuss guys!
I think I've spotted my trouble with double counting. Kills and deaths being both sides of the same coin yet counting them as individual events trips me up for some reason! :cry
However it also points out some of the pitfalls in using this approach. What happens if the surviving P-51 goes on to kill the Spit?
Spit Usage=2
La7 Usage=1
P51 Usage=3
The P-51 sure gets used more than the other planes. But technically we've only had the actual usage of:
Spit=1
La7=1
P-51=2
But I'm being melodramatic here. I humbly support the use of kills+deaths as a proxy for usage with a bit of handwaving to explain away the pitfalls!
Tango, XO
412th FS Braunco Mustangs
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Well, technically using what I proposed it would be:
Spit Usage=1
La7 Usage=1
P-51 Usage=1
Uhm yes, I removed one too many ...
but hey, math had always been my worst subject in school. :(
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math geek purse fight :uhoh
Interesting stats lusche thanks for the time and research :aok
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Murdr:
I'll try to explain with a pictoral example.
But your example is a good one because it convinces me that I'm wrong :). Sorry for the fuss guys!
Does this mean I'm not getting a pretty picture now? :( :cry