Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: icepac on August 22, 2011, 11:58:37 PM
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Been prepping all weekend and today but it looks like florida might dodge this bullet because it is projected to be of category 4 strength as it passes by.
Sadly, it looks like the carolinas are in for a strong category 3 making landfall.
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Been watching this one since it was Invest 97. Florida may be off the hook this time but I certainly wouldn't let my guard down. The latest model runs are not looking good for the Carolinas or the Bahamas. Cat 4 storm with winds near 135mph as it passes over the Bahamas and a cat 3 storm at landfall in either south or north Carolina. Not a good situation for the SE states right now.
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FL is not off the hook until it passes FL. We've had hurricanes that were off the coast when they suddenly stopped, did a 90 degree turn and went right through FL.
Last one like that only gave us 4 hours warning to board up before it hit us.
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We've had almost no rain for the last month in our area of Virginia that we'd almost welcome a hurricane, that is if we could get rid of the wind.
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Weatherunderground tracking
(http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201109.gif)
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Tracking projections are only guesses. Like it was said above, until it has totally passed you and dissipated don't think the threat is over. I'm in Louisiana and I'm watching it in case it takes a hard left turn and heads for our RV. :eek:
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Hmmm I'm supposed to be flying in to Baltimore from Germany on the 27th, and then out to TX on the 28th... I hope the hurricane is still south or I'll be late getting home from my deployment.
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Tracking projections are only guesses.
They're much more than guesses.
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They're much more than guesses.
They are guesses. Educated guesses, but they are still guesses.
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they are guesses
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They are guesses. Educated guesses, but they are still guesses.
I give them much more credit than that. Like when they say it's 80% change of rain. Is that a "guess" since there is a chance it will not rain?
The amount of differential math and the number of weather related parameters in these weather models is mind boggling. Predictions are based upon data and "most likely scenarios". That is not even in the same ballpark as a "guess". Of course, when the hurricane is many days out, minor differences in reality and the models will change its target hit spot more drastically, but they still always have a good model as to how the system is going to behave and where it will want to move towards, and as it gets close, really zero in its exact path.
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Hmmm I'm supposed to be flying in to Baltimore from Germany on the 27th, and then out to TX on the 28th... I hope the hurricane is still south or I'll be late getting home from my deployment.
lol going home on R&R too? im about 5 days behind u
beefcake what part u from? im from Winchester
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Looks like the current path skirts Mid-Atlantic, NE as well.
:cheers: Oz
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http://youtu.be/cBSv8Y-Gm-8 Goodnight Irene
Saturday evening into Sunday is the projected time around DC/Baltimore area.
Strong winds, flooding,and no power wooooooooooooo woooooooooo.
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Here's a picture from the weather channel of a track model for Irene. Notice all of the possible tracks? Meteorology like most all other science is down with educated guesses. The more data they have the better the guesses.
(http://i.imwx.com/images/sat/regions/spec_sat10_600_en.jpg)
Sitehttp://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm9/spec_floater10_large.html (http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm9/spec_floater10_large.html)
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I give them much more credit than that. Like when they say it's 80% change of rain. Is that a "guess" since there is a chance it will not rain?
The amount of differential math and the number of weather related parameters in these weather models is mind boggling. Predictions are based upon data and "most likely scenarios". That is not even in the same ballpark as a "guess". Of course, when the hurricane is many days out, minor differences in reality and the models will change its target hit spot more drastically, but they still always have a good model as to how the system is going to behave and where it will want to move towards, and as it gets close, really zero in its exact path.
Quoted for truth. Models have advanced greatly in accuracy over the years. While they still can't pinpoint a storms exact path they can give us a pretty dam good idea where its head. Keep in mind that there are several different computer models each with a little bit different information with 100's if not 1000's of conditions in and around the storm and each model processes this information a little differently. So you will get some variation in the forecasted track but overall the models are pretty accurate. Now i'm not saying they are perfect but always getting better with advances in technology. Someday i would like to think we could pinpoint a storm 10-15 days in advance but I doubt I will see that in my lifetime.
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I give them much more credit than that. Like when they say it's 80% change of rain. Is that a "guess" since there is a chance it will not rain?
The amount of differential math and the number of weather related parameters in these weather models is mind boggling. Predictions are based upon data and "most likely scenarios". That is not even in the same ballpark as a "guess". Of course, when the hurricane is many days out, minor differences in reality and the models will change its target hit spot more drastically, but they still always have a good model as to how the system is going to behave and where it will want to move towards, and as it gets close, really zero in its exact path.
Grizz, There is no shame in calling it educated guessing. It is what it is when you do not know 100% what the outcome will be, but you have educated yourself to the best you can or through what is available and then you make your best estimate, which is an educated guess. Lastly, a good friend of mine is a scientist with NOAA. He very willingly calls what they do (with forecasting) nothing more than educated guessing.
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It seems they are better at predicting where it ends up doing the most damage than getting the path correct.
I think hurricane irene is taking a similar track as hurricane Gloria did.......watch out jersey.
(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/07/Gloria_1985_track.png/800px-Gloria_1985_track.png)
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lol going home on R&R too? im about 5 days behind u
I'm redeploying, 6 month tour complete. Hopefully my last deployment.
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Grizz, There is no shame in calling it educated guessing. It is what it is when you do not know 100% what the outcome will be, but you have educated yourself to the best you can or through what is available and then you make your best estimate, which is an educated guess. Lastly, a good friend of mine is a scientist with NOAA. He very willingly calls what they do (with forecasting) nothing more than educated guessing.
Sorry for being pedantic, but I would call it educated estimating. The word "guessing" just infers that there is very little actual science and data to base your reasoning on.
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I got caught outrunning a huge Hurricane, I forget the name of that one, that ran up the east coast where I was driving OTW to Newfoundland to shoot moose, caribou, and bear. I couldnt stop at a motel cause they were all full up and had no choice but to drive thru the driving rain and wind and pray. They are no joke. Even on the fringes of one.
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I have the latest in weather prediction and detection installed...
It is 100% accurate, 100% of the time...
Accept no substitute :aok
(http://i239.photobucket.com/albums/ff107/tymekeepyr/DansArmXRay.jpg)
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I have the latest in weather prediction and detection installed...
It is 100% accurate, 100% of the time...
Accept no substitute :aok
(http://i239.photobucket.com/albums/ff107/tymekeepyr/DansArmXRay.jpg)
Yeah me too except its in my knee works about a day or 2 out comes in handy.
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Tweet: New Yorkers overload the system with tweets two days before storm arrives. end Tweet :devil
Tweet: Surfs up in Cape Hatteras,NC . end Tweet
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This is beginning to look serious for New England. I live on Martha's Vineyard and the last significant one we had was Hurricane Bob - had two boats in the water, both of which survived unscathed - 90 or so others did not. I was very lucky that time. We were without power at the house for 7 days - not a pleasant experience. This year, my son has two boats in the water - mine is in the yard.
Best wishes to all in the path of this storm - take precautions and be safe.. :salute
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This is beginning to look serious for New England. I live on Martha's Vineyard and the last significant one we had was Hurricane Bob - had two boats in the water, both of which survived unscathed - 90 or so others did not. I was very lucky that time. We were without power at the house for 7 days - not a pleasant experience. This year, my son has two boats in the water - mine is in the yard.
Best wishes to all in the path of this storm - take precautions and be safe.. :salute
Better put the one in the yard on the water lest it becomes part of your living room. :O
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If it blows hard enough to put that boat in my living room - I'll move onto the boat - might be on it anyway, if the power goes out - there is good power on the boat.
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If it blows hard enough to put that boat in my living room - I'll move onto the boat - might be on it anyway, if the power goes out - there is good power on the boat.
:rock
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I live in north eastern New Hampshire and if it runs thru us with any power, the white pines will be down everywhere. Im a little uneasy about my house since there are about 6 tall pines around it within striking distance. I had 3 close ones taken down last fall, but there is one tall one about 28 inches at the base 15 ft from the corner of my house I was waiting till this fall to do. Hopefully Irene doesnt do it for me.
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I live in Southern Maryland (NAS Pax River area), looks like we are gonna get some wind and a little rain. If Irene wants to drift to the east, thats fine with me.
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Large Loss Property insurance adjuster here............let me say that lookng at the volume of emails flying around here at work the last 2 days, the insurance industry is really on edge about this storm.
Stay safe East Coasters :aok
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We are bracing down for the worst here in Centereach, NY (suffolk county, long island). I have 4 family members getting evacuated from the south shore (I live north of 495 so no immediate evacuation for my family), hopefully this blows over quickly and without to much damage. I have lots of trees around my yard! :pray
They are saying a total washout of JFK is possible, which is scary ! :O
Hope Widewing, B2B, 68Falcon and all of the other long islanders stay safe during the storm! I'll post some updates/pictures if things get interesting around my house.
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We are bracing down for the worst here in Centereach, NY (suffolk county, long island). I have 4 family members getting evacuated from the south shore (I live north of 495 so no immediate evacuation for my family), hopefully this blows over quickly and without to much damage. I have lots of trees around my yard! :pray
They are saying a total washout of JFK is possible, which is scary ! :O
Hope Widewing, B2B, 68Falcon and all of the other long islanders stay safe during the storm! I'll post some updates/pictures if things get interesting around my house.
cape may's supposed to take a hard hit.
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Dreading her... gonna be pumping outvasemenrs all day Sunday and Monday, ans may e into Tuesday... must have a dozen rivers, lakes and swamps In my 10 square mile (if that) town...
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Texas really needed this storm...New England throw that b*#@! back this way...we know what to do!
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Texas really needed this storm...New England throw that b*#@! back this way...we know what to do!
especially cause we don't need it up here
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This is a tough one to get a feel for. Most computer models have it making landfall in Connecticut or Rhode Island. But there's one that keeps showing it heading right to my house(Cape Cod). I remember when Hurricane Bob blew through here in '91. I didn't have power for a week. It wasn't that big a deal then, I was 7. I was playing baseball or making forts out of fallen trees. This time won't be fun, that's for sure.
Best of luck for those of us cought in the path of this storm.
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Good luck to all in it's path. I don't think anyone "needs this". May need the rain, but sure don't need
all the drama & heartache she'll be packin.
Coogan
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cape may's supposed to take a hard hit.
Since there are only 2 bridges in or out... :noid
Governor Christie cracks me up.
"Get the hell off the beach, you've maximized your tan!"
http://video-embed.nj.com/services/player/bcpid619329501001?bctid=1130694587001 (http://video-embed.nj.com/services/player/bcpid619329501001?bctid=1130694587001)
Cape May County Emergency Management Director Frank McCall is pretty good, too...
"Those who refuse to leave should put a 3X5 card in their left shoe with their name, address, social security number and next of kin, so they may be identified"
:noid
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You folks in the path
best wishes, keep your heads down, be smart, and play it safe :salute
Of course if Widewing would just step out on the porch and tell the storm to behave itself nobody would have any worries ;)
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Since there are only 2 bridges in or out... :noid
Governor Christie cracks me up.
"Get the hell off the beach, you've maximized your tan!"
http://video-embed.nj.com/services/player/bcpid619329501001?bctid=1130694587001 (http://video-embed.nj.com/services/player/bcpid619329501001?bctid=1130694587001)
Cape May County Emergency Management Director Frank McCall is pretty good, too...
"Those who refuse to leave should put a 3X5 card in their left shoe with their name, address, social security number and next of kin, so they may be identified"
:noid
yea, i heard them saying that.
at a bit of a risk here......i friggin LOVE christie. he tells it like it is, or like he sees it. he doesn't pull any punches. i thought i heard him calling people not willing to leave idiots. :rofl
anyway.......as of 8pm tonight, here's the predicted path.......
(http://i200.photobucket.com/albums/aa135/1LTCAP/210734W_sm.gif)
i truly hope we're all doing all of this prep for naught. but i think we're gonna get hammered at least lightly this time.
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Here's a funny Hurricane Bob story for you guys.
Back then I was a 7 year old kid. I would get up at 6 in the morning to play with Legos in the family room. My dad would leave for work a couple of hours before that time.
About 8am the day of the hurricane, my mom comes to me and says, "Watch your sister. I need to go the store for a few things."
"Okay," I said. I grabbed a VHS tape for my sister to watch, some crap like Rainbow Briite or My Little Pony. Then I continued to play Legos.
An hour later she returns with some supplies and groceries. Canned food, bottled water, crackers, duct tape, band-aids, and a flashlight.
"Whats all that for?" I asked.
"Oh, there's a hurricane comming today. We might lose power for a while."
I had no idea what a hurricane was, but there seemed to be a bigger issue at hand.
"So where are the batteries for the flashlight?"
"It doesn't have batteries, it's rechargable." she replied.
She then has me read her the directions on the package.
"Must be charged 24 hours before use." I read.
I look outside for the first time that day and see it's pretty nasty out there.
I asked her, "When is it supposed to get bad?"
"This afternoon."
"Hrmm."
I pulggged that flashlight into the wall, then left to play Nintendo before the power goes out.
An epic session of Mario 3 is cut short about 2pm, along with everything else that plugs into the wall.
Mom calls out to me, "Chris, get the candles."
"What candles?"
"They're in the closet, in the basement."
"What?!"
"It's no big deal," she says, "Just take the flashlight."
I take it out of the socket, and make my way to the basement steps. I open the door and hit the switch on the flashlight.
Well piece of crap lived up to its name, because that exactly what it did. It flashed....ONCE!
I stared into the downstairs abyss. Remember that scene in Jurassic Park when the blonde chick went down into that utility shed to restart the park? It was just like that. But what if there arent just Raptors down there? There could be a T Rex, or a Terminator, or a shark, maybe even Darth Vader!
I put on a brave face, and descended into the dark unknown. I made it to the basement closet without encountering those things that go bump in the mind of a 7 year old with an overactive imagination. But if I did, this damn flashlight would make one hell of a club.
I fealt my way from shelf to shelf, searching for anything that fealt like it might contain a candle. Paper towels, toilet paper, barbicue sause, hammer, nails, sewing maching, a bag of large bottle caps.
"Ma! There's no candles down here!"
"There should be a bag of them in there."
"A bag of candles?"
"Yeah. They're tiny candles."
The bag of bottlecaps! I grabbed it and turned for the stairs. What dangers await me on my return to the world of light? Ninjas? Aliens? Chucky?
Oh, the stairs are just 5 feet away and well lit. I was safe.
I make it back to my mom with the bag of candles, and hand it to her.
"Ma, next time just buy a regular flashlight. Oh, I'm going to make sure you never forget this."
I talked to my mom today about the comming hurricane.
"Are you all set for the hurricane this weekend, Mom?"
"Yes."
"Did you plug in the flashlight?"
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on your flashlight note...........go with LED's. you simply can't beat em for reliability, and brightness. i've got mine all charged up, and ready to go, just in case. got 3 cases of water, some basic food, some milk, some gas for my generator..........and i pray to whatever being made us that it misses us all together.
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on your flashlight note...........go with LED's. you simply can't beat em for reliability, and brightness. i've got mine all charged up, and ready to go, just in case. got 3 cases of water, some basic food, some milk, some gas for my generator..........and i pray to whatever being made us that it misses us all together.
Don't forget some oars and life jackets in the jeep :)
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on your flashlight note...........go with LED's. you simply can't beat em for reliability, and brightness. i've got mine all charged up, and ready to go, just in case. got 3 cases of water, some basic food, some milk, some gas for my generator..........and i pray to whatever being made us that it misses us all together.
I spent about $20 and got one of those little Eton weather radios. AM/FM/Weather bands, plus an LED flashlight
built into the end of a very small package. It even has a USB socket to recharge your cell phone. Best $$$ I've
spent in quite a while. Oh yeah, it comes with a handcrank and a photoelectric cell to charge it up...so as long
as you can spin the handle, you are good to go :aok
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If you're a racing fan and use a radio scanner at the track, it probably has a preset channel for weather emergencies. Mine does. It's a RCA scantrack.
Just helpful tip if youn dont have a radio that runs on batteries.
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Can we get that Jersey Gov. to dress up like Tony Soprano and say " you want to go to the beach? Forget about it!" :devil
almost forgot <fist pump>
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one of the better tracking maps that I've found
http://www.nytimes.com/projects/hurricanes/?ref=us#
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Can we get that Jersey Gov. to dress up like Tony Soprano and say " you want to go to the beach? Forget about it!" :devil
almost forgot <fist pump>
funny you say that....i'm on the phone with my mother right now........she said she doesn't like him, 'cause he looks like a gangster. :rofl
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Well the good news is if the power goes off. I won't have to hear about how New York is preparing for the big epic ,100 year, this is like 9/11 storm. :rolleyes:
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Well the good news is if the power goes off. I won't have to hear about how New York is preparing for the big epic ,100 year, this is like 9/11 storm. :rolleyes:
or you could change the channel? :devil
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or you could change the channel? :devil
I needz my storm updates it's like crack.