Her name's irene and she means business

[Killer91]

I give them much more credit than that.  Like when they say it's 80% change of rain.  Is that a "guess" since there is a chance it will not rain?

The amount of differential math and the number of weather related parameters in these weather models is mind boggling.  Predictions are based upon data and "most likely scenarios".  That is not even in the same ballpark as a "guess".  Of course, when the hurricane is many days out, minor differences in reality and the models will change its target hit spot more drastically, but they still always have a good model as to how the system is going to behave and where it will want to move towards, and as it gets close, really zero in its exact path.

Quoted for truth. Models have advanced greatly in accuracy over the years. While they still can't pinpoint a storms exact path they can give us a pretty dam good idea where its head. Keep in mind that there are several different computer models each with a little bit different information with 100's if not 1000's of conditions in and around the storm and each model processes this information a little differently. So you will get some variation in the forecasted track but overall the models are pretty accurate. Now i'm not saying they are perfect but always getting better with advances in technology. Someday i would like to think we could pinpoint a storm 10-15 days in advance but I doubt I will see that in my lifetime.

[Bodhi]

I give them much more credit than that.  Like when they say it's 80% change of rain.  Is that a "guess" since there is a chance it will not rain?

The amount of differential math and the number of weather related parameters in these weather models is mind boggling.  Predictions are based upon data and "most likely scenarios".  That is not even in the same ballpark as a "guess".  Of course, when the hurricane is many days out, minor differences in reality and the models will change its target hit spot more drastically, but they still always have a good model as to how the system is going to behave and where it will want to move towards, and as it gets close, really zero in its exact path.

Grizz, There is no shame in calling it educated guessing.  It is what it is when you do not know 100% what the outcome will be, but you have educated yourself to the best you can or through what is available and then you make your best estimate, which is an educated guess.  Lastly, a good friend of mine is a scientist with NOAA.  He very willingly calls what they do (with forecasting) nothing more than educated guessing.

[icepac]

It seems they are better at predicting where it ends up doing the most damage than getting the path correct.

I think hurricane irene is taking a similar track as hurricane Gloria did.......watch out jersey.

[eagl]

lol going home on R&R too? im about 5 days behind u

I'm redeploying, 6 month tour complete.  Hopefully my last deployment.

[grizz441]

Grizz, There is no shame in calling it educated guessing.  It is what it is when you do not know 100% what the outcome will be, but you have educated yourself to the best you can or through what is available and then you make your best estimate, which is an educated guess.  Lastly, a good friend of mine is a scientist with NOAA.  He very willingly calls what they do (with forecasting) nothing more than educated guessing.

Sorry for being pedantic, but I would call it educated estimating.  The word "guessing" just infers that there is very little actual science and data to base your reasoning on.

[Rich52]

I got caught outrunning a huge Hurricane, I forget the name of that one, that ran up the east coast where I was driving OTW to Newfoundland to shoot moose, caribou, and bear. I couldnt stop at a motel cause they were all full up and had no choice but to drive thru the driving rain and wind and pray. They are no joke. Even on the fringes of one.

[VonMessa]

I have the latest in weather prediction and detection installed...

It is 100% accurate, 100% of the time...

Accept no substitute 

[kilo2]

I have the latest in weather prediction and detection installed...

It is 100% accurate, 100% of the time...

Accept no substitute 

(Image removed from quote.)

Yeah me too except its in my knee works about a day or 2 out comes in handy.

[crazyivan]

Tweet: New Yorkers  overload the system with tweets two days before storm arrives. end Tweet


Tweet: Surfs up in Cape Hatteras,NC . end Tweet

[Barrett]

This is beginning to look serious for New England.  I live on Martha's Vineyard and the last significant one we had was Hurricane Bob - had two boats in the water, both of which survived unscathed - 90 or so others did not. I was very lucky that time. We were without power at the house for 7 days - not a pleasant experience. This year, my son has two boats in the water - mine is in the yard.

Best wishes to all in the path of this storm - take precautions and be safe..

[VonMessa]

This is beginning to look serious for New England.  I live on Martha's Vineyard and the last significant one we had was Hurricane Bob - had two boats in the water, both of which survived unscathed - 90 or so others did not. I was very lucky that time. We were without power at the house for 7 days - not a pleasant experience. This year, my son has two boats in the water - mine is in the yard.

Best wishes to all in the path of this storm - take precautions and be safe..

Better put the one in the yard on the water lest it becomes part of your living room.   

[Barrett]

If it blows hard enough to put that boat in my living room - I'll move onto the boat - might be on it anyway, if the power goes out - there is good power on the boat.

[VonMessa]

If it blows hard enough to put that boat in my living room - I'll move onto the boat - might be on it anyway, if the power goes out - there is good power on the boat.

 

[FiLtH]

  I live in north eastern New Hampshire and if it runs thru us with any power, the white pines will be down everywhere. Im a little uneasy about my house since there are about 6 tall pines around it within striking distance. I had 3 close ones taken down last fall, but there is one tall one about 28 inches at the base 15 ft from the corner of my house I was waiting till this fall to do. Hopefully Irene doesnt do it for me.

 

[jollyFE]

I live in Southern Maryland (NAS Pax River area), looks like we are gonna get some wind and a little rain.  If Irene wants to drift to the east, thats fine with me.