Aces High Bulletin Board

General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: PR3D4TOR on January 15, 2012, 02:18:38 PM

Title: Puzzle time!
Post by: PR3D4TOR on January 15, 2012, 02:18:38 PM
(http://gregpike.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/if-you-choose-an-answer-to-this-question-at-random-what-is-the-chance-you-will-be-correct.jpg)

 :huh :D
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: Flipperk on January 15, 2012, 02:22:44 PM
(http://gregpike.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/if-you-choose-an-answer-to-this-question-at-random-what-is-the-chance-you-will-be-correct.jpg)

 :huh :D


 :noid
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: titanic3 on January 15, 2012, 02:26:55 PM
The answer isn't there.  :aok (It's 33.3%) 
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: PR3D4TOR on January 15, 2012, 02:46:46 PM
The answer isn't there.  :aok (It's 33.3%) 

But then the answer is 0%  :huh
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: Flipperk on January 15, 2012, 03:15:20 PM
(http://gregpike.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/if-you-choose-an-answer-to-this-question-at-random-what-is-the-chance-you-will-be-correct.jpg)

 :huh :D


50%???

2 right and 2 wrong?
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: BowHTR on January 15, 2012, 03:27:44 PM

50%???

2 right and 2 wrong?

im with you....50%
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: Mar on January 15, 2012, 03:31:32 PM
titanic is right. There are only three choices. :banana:
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: PR3D4TOR on January 15, 2012, 03:34:05 PM
If you answer is 50% there is only one correct alternative, and that's only 25%.
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: clerick on January 15, 2012, 03:37:08 PM
none of them are correct. If you choose A/D and B are mutually exclusive, they both can't be right. 33 1/3 isn't right because it isn't a "correct" answer. Therefore it is 0%.
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: BowHTR on January 15, 2012, 03:39:09 PM
none of them are correct. If you choose A/D and B are mutually exclusive, they both can't be right. 33 1/3 isn't right because it isn't a "correct" answer. Therefore it is 0%.

But it doesnt say to choose the correct answer, it just says if you choose an answer at random
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: Mar on January 15, 2012, 03:40:13 PM
0% isn't a "correct" answer either.

The only explanation is there are more choices on the board the picture isn't showing... :noid
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: clerick on January 15, 2012, 03:41:27 PM
But it doesnt say to choose the correct answer, it just says if you choose an answer at random

Read it again.
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: BowHTR on January 15, 2012, 03:45:50 PM
Read it again.
I stand corrected :cheers: , still confused..... :headscratch:
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: clerick on January 15, 2012, 03:47:51 PM
0% isn't a "correct" answer either.

The only explanation is there are more choices on the board the picture isn't showing... :noid

it says "what is the chance you will be correct?" It must be 0% since there are no correct answers.
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: Flipperk on January 15, 2012, 03:52:25 PM
it says "what is the chance you will be correct?" It must be 0% since there are no correct answers.


To choose a random answer out of 4, you have a 25% chance to get a correct answer.


25% is the answer, but since there are two 25% choices...both of them are correct...

so you have 2 correct answers to 2 wrong answers... you have 50% chance of getting correct...


...right?
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: BowHTR on January 15, 2012, 03:55:12 PM

To choose a random answer out of 4, you have a 25% chance to get a correct answer.


25% is the answer, but since there are two 25% choices...both of them are correct...

so you have 2 correct answers to 2 wrong answers... you have 50% chance of getting correct...


...right?

That's what I was thinking at first until clerick started confusing me
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: clerick on January 15, 2012, 03:58:24 PM

To choose a random answer out of 4, you have a 25% chance to get a correct answer.


25% is the answer, but since there are two 25% choices...both of them are correct...

so you have 2 correct answers to 2 wrong answers... you have 50% chance of getting correct...


...right?

you have a 50% of guessing "25%" so A and D cannot be right.

you have a 25% of guessing "50%" and "60%" so they cannot be right.

Since there are no correct answers, you have 0% chance.
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: Flipperk on January 15, 2012, 04:00:41 PM
you have a 50% of guessing "25%" so A and D cannot be right.

you have a 25% of guessing "50%" and "60%" so they cannot be right.

Since there are no correct answers, you have 0% chance.



It doesn't say which answer is correct, it just asks what are chances that you choose a correct answer... again 25% is the correct number...there are two choices for this answer and 2 wrong ones.... 50%
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: clerick on January 15, 2012, 04:05:33 PM


It doesn't say which answer is correct, it just asks what are chances that you choose a correct answer... again 25% is the correct number...there are two choices for this answer and 2 wrong ones.... 50%

lol you cannot have 2 correct yet distinclty different answers. If 25% is correct then 50% cannot be the answer and vise-versa.
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: Flipperk on January 15, 2012, 04:08:39 PM
lol you cannot have 2 correct yet distinclty different answers. If 25% is correct then 50% cannot be the answer and vise-versa.


Why not? Nothing in the rule book says that two answers cannot be the same and correct...
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: titanic3 on January 15, 2012, 04:11:47 PM
There are 4 choices. Since two of those choices (25%) are the same, you remove one of them. So now, the choices look like this.

A) 25%
B) 50%
C) 60%

Now there are only three possible answers, and out of three, one of them is right, hence, 33.3% chance of getting a right answer. The problem is. The answer is not there So this question cannot be answered given the choices.

Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: B-17 on January 15, 2012, 04:13:24 PM
WTF MY FRIEND POSTED THIS ON HIS PHONE!!!!

His teacher put it on the board... but they look the exact same...

:noid :noid :noid
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: clerick on January 15, 2012, 04:27:15 PM

Why not? Nothing in the rule book says that two answers cannot be the same and correct...
:bhead

 ok, I have a ski race to get to so I'll be brief. READ WHAT I SAID again!!!

if this hasn't been resolved by the time I'm done racing, I'll bring class back into sesion because you are all various types of wrong.
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: Tank-Ace on January 15, 2012, 04:33:38 PM
The answer changes depending on how far you take it. It will always be either 25% or 50% depending on on which step of the overthinking process you're on.

At first glance, its 25% since theres 4 possible answers.

But two of them give the same correct answer, which changes the answer to 50%

Upon a third look, you see that since the answer is 50%, that the two 25% answers are no longer correct, which drops the odds back down to 25%.

Then you're back at the first step, because 25% is once again the correct answer. But there are two 25% options, which raises the odds back up to 50%.

Congratulations, you've created a paradox  :aok.



So really, there is no answer. 25% is wrong, 50% is wrong, 66% is wrong, and so is 0%, as well as 33.3(1/3)%. This is an example of something that is mathematicaly impossible, but that should have an answer if only you can work your way through it. Mathematicians will probably create another imaginary number, similar to i because they can't accept that some things just don't have an answer.

You've just screwed over the future school children by creating something new, irrelevent, and completly useless in all real world applications for them to learn.
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: Karnak on January 15, 2012, 04:43:09 PM
The answer changes depending on how far you take it. It will always be either 25% or 50% depending on on which step of the overthinking process you're on.

At first glance, its 25% since theres 4 possible answers.

But two of them give the same correct answer, which changes the answer to 50%

Upon a third look, you see that since the answer is 50%, that the two 25% answers are no longer correct, which drops the odds back down to 25%.

Then you're back at the first step, because 25% is once again the correct answer. But there are two 25% options, which raises the odds back up to 50%.
This is the correct description of the problem.
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: PR3D4TOR on January 15, 2012, 05:28:07 PM
 :aok
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: Penguin on January 15, 2012, 08:37:22 PM
The answer changes depending on how far you take it. It will always be either 25% or 50% depending on on which step of the overthinking process you're on.

At first glance, its 25% since theres 4 possible answers.

But two of them give the same correct answer, which changes the answer to 50%

Upon a third look, you see that since the answer is 50%, that the two 25% answers are no longer correct, which drops the odds back down to 25%.

Then you're back at the first step, because 25% is once again the correct answer. But there are two 25% options, which raises the odds back up to 50%.

Congratulations, you've created a paradox  :aok.



So really, there is no answer. 25% is wrong, 50% is wrong, 66% is wrong, and so is 0%, as well as 33.3(1/3)%. This is an example of something that is mathematicaly impossible, but that should have an answer if only you can work your way through it. Mathematicians will probably create another imaginary number, similar to i because they can't accept that some things just don't have an answer.

You've just screwed over the future school children by creating something new, irrelevent, and completly useless in all real world applications for them to learn.

Mathematics isn't there just to solve problems, some parts of it are pure.  Problems can be solved for their own sake, similarly to climbing a mountain.

-Penguin
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: EskimoJoe on January 15, 2012, 08:46:04 PM
What are the chances of randomly choosing a correct answer out of four options.
25%
What if two of those four options where the correct answer?
50%
You would have a 50% chance of answering correctly, therefore the answer is 50%.

You have a 1 in 4 chance of being correct, which is raised to 2 in 4 after the answer appears twice.

It's probability, not equation solving.
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: Penguin on January 15, 2012, 09:06:11 PM
However, by answering 50% one invalidates 25% as a correct answer, thus bringing the probability down to 25%.  This cycle creates a paradox.

-Penguin
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: Flipperk on January 15, 2012, 10:16:39 PM
However, by answering 50% one invalidates 25% as a correct answer, thus bringing the probability down to 25%.  This cycle creates a paradox.

-Penguin


What everyone is forgetting is the question asks to make a probability of selecting a correct answer, IT DOES NOT ASK TO SELECT A,B,C, or D, all it asks is what is the chances of choosing 25%...


.... 50%
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: Tank-Ace on January 15, 2012, 10:43:05 PM
Its implyed that you are to pick an answer out of the 4 listed options. Theres a saying, the clever answers are often the simplest..... they're also usually wrong. Point is that if you try to read into things too much, and find some clever, trickety trick to solve the problem, its usually going to blow up in your face, becuase the problem is strait forward.



Like I said, there is no answer to that question. And by no answer, I don't mean theres 0% probability that you will pick the right answer, I mean that you can't answer the question because the data you are given is constantly changing.
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: clerick on January 16, 2012, 06:03:09 AM
Ok, so here's the deal with this question. It states "If you choose an answer to this question at random..." It must be stated that there really is no question to answer so, we are forced to make some assumptions and, depending on what you assume, your answers will be different.

If you assume that the answers given are irrelevant, a red herring as it were, then you cannot answer the question since we do not know what the correct answer is and the odds of getting the correct answer are different depending on which you choose.
For Example, replace the percentages with some other thing:
    A) Cat
    B) Dog
    C) Bird
    D) Cat
Obviously your chance of guessing cat is double the chance of guessing the others, but since we don't know, from the question, what the correct answer is, we cannot calculate the odds.

If you assume that the choices given are meant to be your options then you have a 0% chance of getting the correct answer since none exists. You have a 50% chance of guessing "25%" which automatically makes it an invalid answer and, of course, the other answers are wrong because 50% and 60% do not equal the odds either. I would argue that this is the approach that requires the least assuming and/or reading into the problem.

If you assume that the question is asking something like "Given a set of four solutions, only one being correct. What are the odds you will guess the correct solution at random? Select from the options below." In this case the correct answer is 25% and you have A or D to choose from. This is what many here are doing. They are answering the question independent of the answers provided, then applying the answers after the fact.
     "Oh! one out of four is 25%! But I have two 25% answers, therefore the answer is 50%!" (Most first graders will tell you that 25% does not equal 50%.)

You could get all philosophical and assume that since there really is no definite question, as if the question were as vague as "what am I thinking of?" Your odds here would be one in infinity of guessing the answer correctly or 1/infinity. **WARNING MATH** The limit of x (your possible solutions) approaches infinity your odds become zero. In other words, one divided by a REALLY big number become, the same as makes no difference, zero.

I'm going to guess that the purpose of this question is to start all kids of discussions like this. It really is a good critical thinking exercise. I agree with Tank-Ace, there really is not enough information to definitely prove one way or the other what the answer is, we need more. BUT, the path with the fewest assumptions will give us an answer of 0%.
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: clerick on January 16, 2012, 06:07:32 AM


It doesn't say which answer is correct, it just asks what are chances that you choose a correct answer... again 25% is the correct number...there are two choices for this answer and 2 wrong ones.... 50%

Think about this for a moment. Since, as you admit, the correct answer is not given, how do you come to the conclusion that 25% is the correct answer?

If "25%" happens to be the correct answer, then you have a 50% chance of getting it right.

However, you only have a 25% chance of getting "50%" or "60%." So the odds of guessing the correct answer change depending on which answer is actually correct.
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: clerick on January 16, 2012, 06:10:12 AM
There are 4 choices. Since two of those choices (25%) are the same, you remove one of them. So now, the choices look like this.

A) 25%
B) 50%
C) 60%

Now there are only three possible answers, and out of three, one of them is right, hence, 33.3% chance of getting a right answer. The problem is. The answer is not there So this question cannot be answered given the choices.



This isn't how probability works. If you have four items you you don't get to throw one item out of the calculations just because it is the same as another.
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: clerick on January 16, 2012, 06:12:21 AM
...all it asks is what is the chances of choosing 25%...


.... 50%

Read it again, it says no such thing.
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: helbent on January 16, 2012, 08:56:12 AM
The organ behind my eyeballs and in front of my bald spot is starting to hurt.
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: FLOTSOM on January 16, 2012, 10:31:07 AM
(http://gregpike.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/if-you-choose-an-answer-to-this-question-at-random-what-is-the-chance-you-will-be-correct.jpg)

 :huh :D


wow for being so smart some of you guys are really silly!!!!!!

read the actual question being asked.......it doesnt ask you anything but to take a guess....at nothing.....so realistically you cant possibly be wrong with any of the potential answers. no question means no correct answer maens no wrong answers, so any answer is correct so your chances of guessing correctly is 100%
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: FireDrgn on January 16, 2012, 01:36:19 PM
However, by answering 50% one invalidates 25% as a correct answer, thus bringing the probability down to 25%.  This cycle creates a paradox.

-Penguin

Its not a paradox . Its is known to be false,.   Its called a complex question, using ambiguity to do its work.     You can not do false things  you can only represent them with launguage  and math. So the answer is 0%

Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: Mar on January 16, 2012, 01:44:32 PM
Just erase 60% from the board and put 33.333-% in its place, there's your answer.
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: FireDrgn on January 16, 2012, 02:00:20 PM
Read it again, it says no such thing.

Its ambiguous.   Its asking it in a false way.       These type of questions almost always use a logical fallacy . This one certianly does.
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: Dragon on January 16, 2012, 02:12:46 PM
 :headscratch:


If you chose not to reply, have you still made a choice?
Title: Re: Puzzle time!
Post by: Tank-Ace on January 16, 2012, 02:34:05 PM
A paradox is a logical statment or group of statments that leads to a contradiction or a situation which, if true, defies logic or reason.

The question itself isn't a paradox, but any attempt to follow the question through to its end will result in a paradox. Arguably it is also a circular reference.


But the point is that the question doesn't have any answer, because depending on how you look at it, your data is either incomplete or constantly changing. Because we don't have any hard, unchanging data, we can't answer the question.

X = Yx when Y= .4 Z.
4Z = X+Y, find X and Y

This roughly illustrates what dealing with, even if the situation and numbers aren't the same. We're looking for X and Y, whos value canges based on variable Z. Since Z is unknown (we could say that its constantly changing value) we can't find an answer for X and Y because the value of X and Y is dependent on the value of Z. We need Z to solve for X and Y, but we need X and Y to solve for Z.