General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Scherf on January 25, 2015, 10:32:04 PM
Title: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Scherf on January 25, 2015, 10:32:04 PM
Now, it looks like I may be able to.
The Mighty Karnak (not *our* Karnak, the other one) sees Greece being booted out of the Euro, the drachma at levels not seen since the glory days of the Italian Lira, dark-haired, smokey-eyed beauties throwing themselves at foreign men (that's, ahem, me), and yours truly reclining in a brilliant white house overlooking the Aegean.
Ah yes, it will be mine.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Brooke on January 26, 2015, 03:27:11 AM
I heard that Larry Ellison is going to buy the whole country. Sorry. :(
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Scherf on January 26, 2015, 03:38:47 AM
d'oh!
The one flaw in an otherwise perfect plan...
:bhead
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: bozon on January 26, 2015, 09:19:45 AM
Greece is for sale? Yey! I broke my piggy bank, but the Drachma rolled into a crack in the woodwork. I hope I get it out in time!
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Curval on January 26, 2015, 09:29:20 AM
I wouldn't buy any property in Greece right now.
No flipping way.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: MrRiplEy[H] on January 27, 2015, 11:38:26 AM
Any seaside properties used to cost millions for obvious reasons. Huge potential for tourism or just recreation.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: caldera on January 27, 2015, 12:03:32 PM
The Mighty Karnak (not *our* Karnak, the other one) sees Greece being booted out of the Euro, the drachma at levels not seen since the glory days of the Italian Lira, dark-haired, smokey-eyed beauties throwing themselves at foreign men (that's, ahem, me), and yours truly reclining in a brilliant white house overlooking the Aegean.
Ah yes, it will be mine.
This thread is worthless without pics of those dark-haired, smoky-eyed beauties.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: MrRiplEy[H] on January 27, 2015, 12:10:07 PM
With the communists in power there now I wouldn't buy a beer there let alone property.
The EU is what put the communists in power. That does not mean it is a communist dictatorship however, it's quite common in europe to have large sections of the government on a leftist base. Probably beats having the nazis in power, too.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: PR3D4TOR on January 27, 2015, 12:30:33 PM
Nazis and communists are two sides of the same socialist coin. Greece can't blame the EU or anyone else for the economic mess they've gotten themselves into (but they will of course). The whole country is riddled with economic and political corruption. No amount of aid money from the EU or anyone else will fix it. It can only be left to burn itself down and hope something better rises out of the ashes.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: bozon on January 27, 2015, 01:19:28 PM
Maybe they'll have a skirmish with Turkey. Both countries need a reset.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: mbailey on January 27, 2015, 01:36:22 PM
Nazis and communists are two sides of the same socialist coin. Greece can't blame the EU or anyone else for the economic mess they've gotten themselves into (but they will of course). The whole country is riddled with economic and political corruption. No amount of aid money from the EU or anyone else will fix it. It can only be left to burn itself down and hope something better rises out of the ashes.
Wheres Sulla and Pompey the Great when you need them :D
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: MrRiplEy[H] on January 27, 2015, 02:31:38 PM
Nazis and communists are two sides of the same socialist coin. Greece can't blame the EU or anyone else for the economic mess they've gotten themselves into (but they will of course). The whole country is riddled with economic and political corruption. No amount of aid money from the EU or anyone else will fix it. It can only be left to burn itself down and hope something better rises out of the ashes.
Wrong wrong and wrong. You don't know anything about the recent history it seems.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: PR3D4TOR on January 27, 2015, 02:37:18 PM
Wrong wrong and wrong. You don't know anything about the recent history it seems.
What a great argument from you. Really convinced me.
When it is cheaper and commonplace to pay off the taxman instead of paying tax, and when the government is running a lot of social programs and wildly unrealistic retirement benefits, it is only a question of time before it all collapses. Has nothing to do with the EU or anyone else. Greece is rotting from the inside.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: MrRiplEy[H] on January 27, 2015, 03:05:52 PM
What a great argument from you. Really convinced me.
When it is cheaper and commonplace to pay off the taxman instead of paying tax, and when the government is running a lot of social programs and wildly unrealistic retirement benefits, it is only a question of time before it all collapses. Has nothing to do with the EU or anyone else. Greece is rotting from the inside.
You just don't have a clue, simple as that. The savings politics the EU central bank pushed caused severe loss of quality of life to large masses of people in Greece (up to the state of famine) and played directly into the pouches of extremists such as syriza and golden dawn. All the while nothing was actually resolved, the debt became larger and all this setting just bought enough time to transfer the responsibilities of the large German and French banks to the EU taxpayers.
You really have no clue of the big picture. The bad politics run by Greeks themselves pale with the schemes done on the EU level. Once again the familiar pattern emerges - banks take big risks. Banks profit from the big risks. Banks take big risks and lose money. Taxpayers pay out the banks.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: PR3D4TOR on January 27, 2015, 03:20:34 PM
Greece's problem is they didn't change their fiscal and monetary policies after joining the EU common currency. The Greek government kept its economic policy which consisted in spending more than it received from taxes and minor state entrepreneurial activities, and, in the past, printing drachmas to make up for its budget deficits. It amounts to a fiscal and monetary policy where tax revenues are produced with the printing press (producing bank notes or bonds). Some countries prefer this system to price stability, which has other advantages and drawbacks.
The Greek government began to borrow euros mostly from foreign investors. Big European lenders (Société Générale, Deutsche Bank, etc.) were happy to lend to Greece, because the interest rate was high, to take into account the risk, and at the same time they knew that Europe would refund them should Greece fail. These were euros flowing into the country and corresponding promises to pay back later including some interests (bonds) flowing out. Private Greek agents too borrowed within the country as well as abroad. In parallel to its budget deficits, Greece trade went into deep imbalance. The country indulged in a spending spree with its new money buying goods and services all over the world much more easily than with its previous drachma. Greece paid its imports in part with exports, in part with promises, and in part with euros, which left the country.
The eurozone, feeling concerned, hesitates on what to do. Meanwhile, the Greek government began to reduce the salaries of civil servants, pensions of retirees and public spending. A growing number of Greeks don't have enough money for their everyday expenditures, and therefore shops and local producers suffer as well. The whole country is simply running out of the official money and its GDP has been decreasing for the last three years.
Go ahead. Tell me I don't have a clue, but please offer up some more insight of your own.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Brooke on January 27, 2015, 04:36:36 PM
We are getting to live through the world's greatest Keynsian experiment. When it is such an unmitigated, horrific disaster that no one can miss it, will enough people learn from that event? Or will they look at the enormous conflagration and say, "It's horrible -- they didn't dump enough gasoline on the fire to put it out!"
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: mthrockmor on January 27, 2015, 09:01:38 PM
With the communists in power there now I wouldn't buy a beer there let alone property.
The only difference between communism and the socialist crazy party that one a near majority of seats then formed a coalition government with a fractional party is opposition. This new party is Karl Marx all the way. If they get their way your summer villa on the beach will be right up their with Cuba.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Swoop on January 27, 2015, 09:38:07 PM
Ya know, when I was in high school, a very long time ago, I studied economics.......and right now I can't remember any of it excect that, at the time, Keynesian policy seemed like a much more sensible choice than monetarist policy. But since I can't remember what either of them actually is......
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Scherf on January 28, 2015, 12:35:39 AM
The only difference between communism and the socialist crazy party that one a near majority of seats then formed a coalition government with a fractional party is opposition. This new party is Karl Marx all the way. If they get their way your summer villa on the beach will be right up their with Cuba.
Erm, no, I'm going to wait until they sell the crown jewels in desperation, silly, not before.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: MrRiplEy[H] on January 28, 2015, 02:49:55 AM
Greece's problem is they didn't change their fiscal and monetary policies after joining the EU common currency. The Greek government kept its economic policy which consisted in spending more than it received from taxes and minor state entrepreneurial activities, and, in the past, printing drachmas to make up for its budget deficits. It amounts to a fiscal and monetary policy where tax revenues are produced with the printing press (producing bank notes or bonds). Some countries prefer this system to price stability, which has other advantages and drawbacks.
The Greek government began to borrow euros mostly from foreign investors. Big European lenders (Société Générale, Deutsche Bank, etc.) were happy to lend to Greece, because the interest rate was high, to take into account the risk, and at the same time they knew that Europe would refund them should Greece fail. These were euros flowing into the country and corresponding promises to pay back later including some interests (bonds) flowing out. Private Greek agents too borrowed within the country as well as abroad. In parallel to its budget deficits, Greece trade went into deep imbalance. The country indulged in a spending spree with its new money buying goods and services all over the world much more easily than with its previous drachma. Greece paid its imports in part with exports, in part with promises, and in part with euros, which left the country.
The eurozone, feeling concerned, hesitates on what to do. Meanwhile, the Greek government began to reduce the salaries of civil servants, pensions of retirees and public spending. A growing number of Greeks don't have enough money for their everyday expenditures, and therefore shops and local producers suffer as well. The whole country is simply running out of the official money and its GDP has been decreasing for the last three years.
Go ahead. Tell me I don't have a clue, but please offer up some more insight of your own.
Your text is a direct quote from http://lapasserelle.com/billets/greek_crisis.html lol.
Are you possibly the author of said website? If not, please spare me of any future insights of yours :rofl
Ripsnorting isn't a sin you know. Why write a whole page when it has already been written. Do you have any insight to share or just more bull?
You should always post the source of your quote. Not doing so and posting them as your own words is even illegal in some countries due to copyright infraction.
Posting a story as proof of your own expertise and getting caught pants in the knees won't exactly help your credibility. Now, I have FIRST HAND knowledge about the situation in Greece. So far you've posted a quote from the first article Google puts up. I'm not exactly convinced yet about your knowledgeability on the subject.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: PR3D4TOR on January 28, 2015, 06:32:59 AM
I haven't posted anything as proof of anything. You're the one waving around words like "wrong wrong and wrong" and "you don't have a clue". You claim to know better, but evade every question. I haven't claimed any special knowledge. THAT's the situation in Greece as I understand it, and I don't see the logic in you thinking I do not understand the text I posted. You continue to evade the topic and continue with your infantile personal attack on me rather than staying on topic. I'm guessing it's because you haven't got the first clue about economics or what's causing Greece's problems.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Randy1 on January 28, 2015, 07:21:03 AM
Greece might look to Cuba for a cloudy vision of the future.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: MrRiplEy[H] on January 28, 2015, 07:49:44 AM
I haven't posted anything as proof of anything. You're the one waving around words like "wrong wrong and wrong" and "you don't have a clue". You claim to know better, but evade every question. I haven't claimed any special knowledge. THAT's the situation in Greece as I understand it, and I don't see the logic in you thinking I do not understand the text I posted. You continue to evade the topic and continue with your infantile personal attack on me rather than staying on topic. I'm guessing it's because you haven't got the first clue about economics or what's causing Greece's problems.
Uh, which questions exactly? And the motive for your post is clearly visible:
Quote
Go ahead. Tell me I don't have a clue, but please offer up some more insight of your own.
That quote can be capped off as: "See, I know all that stuff (that I copypasted from the first google search I could find as I have no personal knowledge of the subject that would enable me to write anything with my own words)"
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Shamus on January 28, 2015, 10:47:35 AM
Plagiarism does kind of ding one's credibility.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: PR3D4TOR on January 28, 2015, 06:14:38 PM
Had I made a proper quote it would have had more credibility, not less (as some people seem to think). An oversight on my part perhaps, but the essential truth remains: Greece's economical problems are entirely their own doing. The EU has tried to help, in their own fumbling bureaucratic way.
The question MrRiplEy[H] is the same as in that very post where I quoted André Cabannes, a PhD at Stanford University: Offer up some insight of your own.
Do you think Cabannes is wrong? If so, what is he wrong about?
On the other hand if you just want to continue romancing me I suggest we get a room.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Zoney on January 28, 2015, 06:22:48 PM
Don't fall off that high horse predator. You offered no opinion of your own but now you're demanding Ripley does. Let's hear what your insight is and this time maybe plagiarize from the 2nd or 3rd Google page so yo don't get caught.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: PR3D4TOR on January 28, 2015, 06:29:23 PM
So now it's a three way. Do you have anything to say on the actual topic, or are you just here for the # violations?
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Mar on January 28, 2015, 06:44:25 PM
Had I made a proper quote it would have had more credibility, not less (as some people seem to think). An oversight on my part perhaps, but the essential truth remains: Greece's economical problems are entirely their own doing. The EU has tried to help, in their own fumbling bureaucratic way.
The question MrRiplEy[H] is the same as in that very post where I quoted André Cabannes, a PhD at Stanford University: Offer up some insight of your own.
Do you think Cabannes is wrong? If so, what is he wrong about?
On the other hand if you just want to continue romancing me I suggest we get a room.
I posted several posts of my OWN dude. Or you do accept only copypaste?
You're continuing to miss the point. It's not the bad governing of the Greeks but the moneytary unions push for extreme savings that has collapsed the Greek economy. People are not having enough money to eat anymore and all the while none of the problems are solved, the debt is even deeper since collapsing economy doesn't produce any money to pay off the debt. People get desperate -> extremist parties get wide popularity. Just like 1930s Germany, people were starving enough to see the method in Hitlers madness.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Vulcan on January 29, 2015, 04:06:01 PM
It's not the bad governing of the Greeks but the moneytary unions push for extreme savings that has collapsed the Greek economy.
Really? I'd say any government that lived beyond its means for an extended period of time (ie significant deficits from tax revenue) is bad governing. Greece effectively lied their way into the EU to get lower interest loans, borrowed more money, blew it out on strippers and blow and are broke again. Can't blame the germans for that.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: caldera on January 29, 2015, 04:21:15 PM
Still no dark-haired, smoky-eyed beauties. :cry
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Scherf on January 30, 2015, 02:59:31 AM
Mate, there's one in your avatar! Look!
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: mthrockmor on January 30, 2015, 01:19:23 PM
The only difference between communism and the socialist crazy party that one a near majority of seats then formed a coalition government with a fractional party is opposition. This new party is Karl Marx all the way. If they get their way your summer villa on the beach will be right up their with Cuba.
I was tired. More than a couple errors though I stand behind the bad spelling. Cuba or bust!
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: MrRiplEy[H] on February 02, 2015, 12:30:47 AM
Really? I'd say any government that lived beyond its means for an extended period of time (ie significant deficits from tax revenue) is bad governing. Greece effectively lied their way into the EU to get lower interest loans, borrowed more money, blew it out on strippers and blow and are broke again. Can't blame the germans for that.
If you don't believe me, perhaps you believe your own president who just said in an interview to CNN that the central bank of EU should stop punishing the greeks with its savings demands that are collapsing the quality of life in the country. But you're probably going to call him stupid too, aren't you? LOL!
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Brooke on February 02, 2015, 01:13:50 AM
Yeah, because that guy sure knows a lot about economics and foreign policy.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Brooke on February 02, 2015, 03:28:53 AM
My feeling is that Greece had a couple of choices: it could take pain now and get it over with or it could kick the can down the road and take more pain later. It is in the process of choosing the 2nd option. My opinion is that the largest Keynsian experiment in the history of the world is going to end in a catastrophe for more than Greece. I feel that way based on reading:
This Time is Different, by Reinhart and Rogoff Basic Economics, by Sowell The Return of Depression Economics, by Krugman The Big Short, by Lewis Endgame, by Mauldin and Tepper Code Red, by Mauldin and Tepper The Death of Money, by Rickards
The world is going through an enormous experiment between (1) people who believe that a way out of debt includes creating more debt and diverting capital from private enterprise toward government projects and bureaucracy and (2) people who believe the exact opposite.
I'm in group 2.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: -ammo- on February 02, 2015, 04:09:13 AM
If you don't believe me, perhaps you believe your own president who just said in an interview to CNN that the central bank of EU should stop punishing the greeks with its savings demands that are collapsing the quality of life in the country. But you're probably going to call him stupid too, aren't you? LOL!
I wouldn't call him stupid - socialist, yes. I believe the current US pres will go down in history as the worst.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: MrRiplEy[H] on February 02, 2015, 05:33:06 AM
My feeling is that Greece had a couple of choices: it could take pain now and get it over with or it could kick the can down the road and take more pain later. It is in the process of choosing the 2nd option. My opinion is that the largest Keynsian experiment in the history of the world is going to end in a catastrophe for more than Greece. I feel that way based on reading:
This Time is Different, by Reinhart and Rogoff Basic Economics, by Sowell The Return of Depression Economics, by Krugman The Big Short, by Lewis Endgame, by Mauldin and Tepper Code Red, by Mauldin and Tepper The Death of Money, by Rickards
The world is going through an enormous experiment between (1) people who believe that a way out of debt includes creating more debt and diverting capital from private enterprise toward government projects and bureaucracy and (2) people who believe the exact opposite.
I'm in group 2.
Did your reading group mention anything about the central bank diverting the europeans banks debts to tax payers quietly while playing for time using the support packages? They've created a huge scam for the EU taxpayers basically. Banks took heavy risks and now that the risk capitalized, taxpayers pay out the risk. Banks can continue to make good profit and shell out money to the shareholders like nothing happened.
Their policy has never even aimed to save the greek economy, instead they've basically shut down the whole internal economy of greece. Almost all pensions and salaries got cut from 40 to 60%. Busineses went bankrupt in strides, people can't afford to pay their rent or heating anymore, some people can't afford to eat. Property values collapsed. It's a buyers market, the super rich have a field day buying out properties for a fraction of cost. They're going to profit immensely when the economy rises again.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: oldskool65 on February 02, 2015, 08:05:31 AM
Well its about time you heard the truth Guys I used to live in London (where most of the Greeks escaping poverty have gone) and from their own mouths the real reason for the poor situation in Greece is down to 1 . The refusal of the Greek people to pay tax (Greek tv source 90% of Greeks are guilty of tax evasion) 2 . The Greek government lacking the cahones to do something about point 1 3 . Corruption amongst the major finance leaders in Greece (lies told to E.U banks by Greek Gov) And finally what all of you fail to say is that the biggest debt owed by the Greeks is to the USA and also the highest rate of interest charged is by the US so roll your necks in because your sub prime banking crisis triggered the economic collapse in western economies !!!!!!
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: MrRiplEy[H] on February 02, 2015, 08:09:39 AM
Well its about time you heard the truth Guys I used to live in London (where most of the Greeks escaping poverty have gone) and from their own mouths the real reason for the poor situation in Greece is down to 1 . The refusal of the Greek people to pay tax (Greek tv source 90% of Greeks are guilty of tax evasion) 2 . The Greek government lacking the cahones to do something about point 1 3 . Corruption amongst the major finance leaders in Greece (lies told to E.U banks by Greek Gov) And finally what all of you fail to say is that the biggest debt owed by the Greeks is to the USA and also the highest rate of interest charged is by the US so roll your necks in because your sub prime banking crisis triggered the economic collapse in western economies !!!!!!
This is what lead to the situation, I've been talking all the time about the handling of the situation and it's major problems. The greek government wasn't the only one making mistakes, basically the cure offered by the central bank was worse than the disease.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: oldskool65 on February 02, 2015, 08:25:32 AM
Ok Ripley you are right about the current situation being made worse by the actions of the EU central banks policy of forced austerity but my annoyance is aimed at the Americans who have posted commenting on a situation they know very little about The Media in the US is insular and never tells the whole story and always forgets to mention that the US has the highest International interest rates on the planet so adds fuel to the ever growing pyre of Greek independence So Scherf if you want to help the Greeks try lobbying the US to stop bleeding Europe white to pay its own debts
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Randy1 on February 02, 2015, 10:10:10 AM
The biggest weakness of a democracy is the elected and candidates buying votes with tax dollars. Ask the ancient Romans about that.
All the big states, cities and the feds buy union votes here in the US. Who was it? Someone running for gov of california I think was caught on tape saying he would match and beat any other candidates offer to the police union or association.
Greece has no exclusive on this. They might just be better at it.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Scherf on February 02, 2015, 02:26:52 PM
So Scherf if you want to help the Greeks try lobbying the US to stop bleeding Europe white to pay its own debts
But, I don't want to help the Greeks, I want to help myself.
I wouldn't be the first, either. A parade of German bankers were oh so very happy to help themselves to fees and bonuses when the Greeks were still borrowing, now they're bleating that the town drunk didn't pay them back - someone has to make them good! Even the arch-wiseasses at Goldman Sachs helped the Greeks get around Eurozone regulators.
Now it's MY turn to help myself to some of the good Greek greekness!
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Brooke on February 02, 2015, 07:05:57 PM
Did your reading group mention anything about . . .
Yes. That's a part of the problem well-known to folks who don't like Keynsian policy.
Quote
Their policy has never even aimed to save the greek economy, instead they've basically shut down the whole internal economy of greece. Almost all pensions and salaries got cut from 40 to 60%. Busineses went bankrupt in strides, people can't afford to pay their rent or heating anymore, some people can't afford to eat. Property values collapsed. It's a buyers market, the super rich have a field day buying out properties for a fraction of cost. They're going to profit immensely when the economy rises again.
Yep, those above books (most of them) point out these consequences. However, I think that you are wrong about it being a buyer's market. I think that we are in store for a much greater catastrophe first. Then it will be a buyer's market.
Here's what I think will happen (and I could certainly be completely wrong). First, the stock market will collapse (sometime between soon and year into the Fed raising rates). That will cause a depression, a real one with every asset declining in value except bonds (which will go up). In reaction, central banks will probably start to print yet more money. But whether they do or don't, at some point after that, confidence in the whole over-leveraged debt framework of the world will finally crash (and bonds with it), purging the mountain of financial insanity that has built up. That is when things will be the cheapest for anyone with money left.
The problem we have is that people in general don't take 5-10 hours out of their entire lives to read "Basic Economics," by Sowell or even the shorter but still great "Economics in One Lesson," by Hazlitt. So, they vote in people who implement economically disastrous nonsense and fall for bald-faced lies about how those policies are great. They are patsies. The *merely* rich (those without $100 million or more) are usually against Keynsianism. The super rich ($100M+, billionaires, and multibillionaires) are usually highly in favor of it, as they are the crony beneficiaries of the policies.
If everyone but the super rich knew what was good for them, they'd be in favor of things as explained in Basic Economics and wouldn't fall for the lies, corruption, cronyism, etc.
However, since this has been the dynamic for at least as far back as the Roman Empire, I don't hold out great hope for normal citizens ever catching on. It seems to be programmed into human nature to fall for it repeatedly forever.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: oldskool65 on February 02, 2015, 08:43:48 PM
Also, if a lender did charge much higher interest rates on the debt, that is good, as if the rates had been lower, even more would have been borrowed, and the problem would be worse.
That is why, in my opinion, seven years and counting of near-zero interest rates are harmful, not helpful, to the world. They are helping to build up an even larger problem.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Brooke on February 03, 2015, 04:29:28 PM
Greece has a government debt to GDP ratio of 174%. That's very high.
But . . .
In the US it is 102%.
Japan is 227%.
By contrast, Switzerland is 35%.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: SysError on February 03, 2015, 06:09:32 PM
Well its about time you heard the truth Guys I used to live in London (where most of the Greeks escaping poverty have gone) and from their own mouths the real reason for the poor situation in Greece is down to 1 . The refusal of the Greek people to pay tax (Greek tv source 90% of Greeks are guilty of tax evasion) 2 . The Greek government lacking the cahones to do something about point 1 3 . Corruption amongst the major finance leaders in Greece (lies told to E.U banks by Greek Gov) And finally what all of you fail to say is that the biggest debt owed by the Greeks is to the USA and also the highest rate of interest charged is by the US so roll your necks in because your sub prime banking crisis triggered the economic collapse in western economies !!!!!!
Agree. Well stated. I read somewhere that if Greece walked away from the EU/debt it could very well end up on top while the rest of the west went down the tubes. I'll have to go find source and re-read it and think about it.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Meatwad on February 03, 2015, 08:10:57 PM
Agree. Well stated. I read somewhere that if Greece walked away from the EU/debt it could very well end up on top while the rest of the west went down the tubes. I'll have to go find source and re-read it and think about it.
An enormous debt burden is a huge problem, and greatly reducing it is (if there weren't large negative consequences) a large advantage.
However, a country running up too much debt has happened a multitude of times in history, and all of the ways of dealing with it (default, renegotiation, inflation, growing out of it) have all been done a multitude of times in history. So, we can see how each of those approaches to the problem works out. We just look at the last 10 examples and see what happened.
Getting the financial house in order and growing out of it is best, of course, but rare when a country gets itself in so far over its head. The US managed to grow out of enormous debt just after WWII, but I doubt that Greece can grow its way out of the current problem. Default, renegotiation, and inflation all result in the lender getting a hair cut. Renegotiation probably works the best, and that's probably what will happen in Greece, because default usually results in disaster for the lender and borrower both. Inflation isn't wholely available because Greece can't print Euros, but the EU itself can print Euros (which it is doing) which can help some but not solve the problem unless they manage to create significant inflation (which I doubt the EU would be able to do even if it wanted). If they are highly inept, they will default and experience things taught many times already in history.
What is the root cause of this mess? It's not a mystery. Case 1: You borrow so much money that you can't make the interest payments, and you blow that borrowed money on paying your cousin Vinny to lean on a shovel. When you run out of money, you can't pay the interest, you can't pay Vinny, Vinny can't get another job, and Vinny can't buy stuff or feed his family. Case 2: You borrow money (but not so much that you can't make the interest payments) and you invest it in your cousin Vinny's productive, growing business so that it can grow faster and hire more people. Not only can you make the interest payments, but your income is growing so that debt/GDP is shrinking. Greece didn't do Case 2.
Neither did the US, China, or Japan, though.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: oldskool65 on February 04, 2015, 10:06:40 AM
I got a great idea (Skuzzy THIS IS A JOKE DO NOT TAKE SERIOUSLY) why don't the Greeks start a war that's what the Germans did it worked look at Germany now
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: PR3D4TOR on February 04, 2015, 11:14:33 AM
With what?
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: SysError on February 04, 2015, 01:22:30 PM
... This Time is Different, by Reinhart and Rogoff Basic Economics, by Sowell The Return of Depression Economics, by Krugman The Big Short, by Lewis Endgame, by Mauldin and Tepper Code Red, by Mauldin and Tepper The Death of Money, by Rickards
I've been following this post. I've been thinking of contributing. But before I do, I have questions. I noticed that your list here had Sowell and Krugman. Well that is interesting I thought. Interesting mix.
... it's the economics of Hayek, von Mises, Bastiat, Sowell, Hazlitt, etc.
Von Mises and Sowell, but no Krugman here. I used google on the others, well one I knew of from many years ago and had forgotten about and, I got a very brief sense/perceptive on the others. I am fully wiling to admit that few moments on google is not going come anywhere close to understanding what I assume are the considered arguments and theories of these individuals. But if I was to assume that their intellectual home base was the Austrian school I do not think that I'd be far off the mark. I wonder if you would, in general, agree with my assumption?
My other question is what is that you found so interesting about Krugman to list him?
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Brooke on February 04, 2015, 05:53:02 PM
Von Mises and Sowell, but no Krugman here. . . . But if I was to assume that their intellectual home base was the Austrian school . . .
My other question is what is that you found so interesting about Krugman to list him?
Yes, I find the Austrian school more persuasive than the Keynsian school. Krugman is a Keynsian luminary. I like Krugman's "Return of Depression Economics" for three reasons.
First, it is interesting to me that Krugman and the Austrians agree on a large chunk of economics (market-determined wages vs. the idea of it being exploitation; how Singapore, South Korea, etc. worked their way up to 1st world status; the value of free markets; etc.). Where they have a major disagreement is on whether Keynsian policies *in time of trouble* are good or bad.
Second is that Krugman goes through a lot of economic history, especially of Latin America. Although it is filtered through a Keynsian lense, it is still very interesting to me.
Third is that I figured Krugman would have the strongest, most-persuasive arguments for Keynsianism, so if I were wrong in my assessment of it, I figured he'd be the best guy to show me that. What I saw, though, was a large number of cases that went as follows. A country did some foolish things economically or even got unlucky and then had a chance to smooth it over with appropriate Keynsian policy. Then either of two things happened: (1) the country tried Keynsian policy but did it incorrectly and had a disaster, or (2) they tried Keynsian policy, got it right for a while, but didn't stop the money fire hose once things had improved and had a disaster. I don't recall from the book's multitude of examples cases where a country did it right and then stopped printing money when it should and was thus fine thereafter.
That -- precisely -- is why I think Keynsianism is bad. It has to operate in the real world of humans, not in the realm of a person or group with unassailable authority and perfect (or even good-enough) judgement. The common imperfections include:
1. Wasting the money on things that actually subtract from benefit, like giving the stimulus to nonproductive uses that crowd out productive ones, using it to increase burdensome bureaucracy that harms growth thereafter, giving it to cronies and thus feeding corruption and cronyism, and spending it to make systems or things that are not useful but start soaking up lots of future money to be maintained; and
2. Doing a great job but then not being able to turn off the money fire hose for political and popular reasons (because, hey, if pressing the gas pedal to the floor in bad times made things better, keeping it pressed to floor always is the way to go). That's what politicians and the average public opinion often ends up being. There's too much resistance to taking one's foot off the gas, and so things stay floored too long, building up a bubble that has to be dangerously obvious before things chance, then it is too late, like in the lead up to 2000, to 2008, and to current times (after 7 years of zero interest rate).
What Krugman's book showed me is that Keynsianism doesn't work in practice because of the reality of human imperfection.
That's why free markets work. They don't require human perfection, or the correct pick of some special person or group with ultimate authority, or perfect judgement.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: SysError on February 04, 2015, 08:56:23 PM
thank you for the reply.
I think that I would like to go find an old reference, read, and refresh my memory. And perhaps think a little.
I'll try to post sooner rather than later.
:cool:
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Brooke on February 09, 2015, 04:54:33 PM
It looks like there will be major decisions this month with respect to Greek debt. We might find out soon whether debt is renegotiated or defaulted on.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Brooke on June 29, 2015, 03:15:36 AM
Looks like the day has come, with Greek banks shutting down on Monday and capital controls going up out of desperation.
I am sorry for the people and nation of Greece.
I also think, though, that Greece is a preview of what most nations (the rest of Europe and the US included) are going to get their own full taste of.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Perrine on June 29, 2015, 03:36:35 AM
Lehman Brothers shock 2-squared :uhoh (or even 3-cubed! :bhead) ... NOW UNDERWAY!
> 08:01:25 - SHARES IN BANCO COMERCIAL PORTUGUES DOWN 9.6 PERCENT
> 08:02:13 - SHARES IN BANCA POPOLARE DI SONDRIO DOWN 9.7 PERCENT
> 08:02:38 - FRANCE’S BNP PARIBAS SHARES DOWN 7 PCT, SOCGEN DOWN 5.8 PCT, AFTER GREECE SHUTS BANKS, IMPOSES CAPITAL CONTROLS
> 08:02:53 - SHARES IN BANK OF IRELAND DOWN 8 PERCENT
> 08:04:00 - UK HSBC SHARES DOWN 2.2 PCT, BARCLAYS DOWN 4 PCT, FRANCE’S CREDIT AGRICOLE DOWN 8 PCT, NATIXIS DOWN 9 PCT AFTER GREECE IMPOSES CAPITAL CONTROLS
> 08:04:08 - SHARES IN ERSTE GROUP BANK DOWN 6.1 PERCENT
> 08:04:47 - SHARES IN RAIFFEISEN DOWN 14.4 PERCENT
> 08:06:20 - SHARES IN COMMERZBANK DOWN 7.1 PERCENT
> 08:06:29 - SPAIN’S BBVA SHARES DOWN 8.4 PCT, DEUTSCHE BANK DOWN 6.3 PCT, ING GROUP DOWN 5 PCT AFTER GREECE SHUTS BANKS
> 08:07:17 - SHARES IN BANKIA DOWN 8.4 PERCENT
> 08:09:07 - SPAIN’S SANTANDER SHARES DOWN 8.5 PCT AFTER GREECE IMPOSES CAPITAL CONTROLS
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Perrine on June 29, 2015, 03:51:12 AM
Seems as though the Greeks want to go back to the good old days of good times and easy money, except that the easy money was always borrowed, from people who no longer want to throw good money after bad.
I rather think that, despite the exposure of the rest of the European banking system (which no doubt will turn out to be more extensive than initially, ah, reported, Minister...) Greece needs the lenders more than the lenders need Greece.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: DREDIOCK on June 29, 2015, 08:00:21 AM
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Lusche on June 29, 2015, 08:41:45 AM
:x
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: MrRiplEy[H] on June 29, 2015, 10:55:26 AM
If Greece will drop out of euro they will become very poor with the new currency. That's great news for a country that lives from tourism and has recently discovered oil and gas along with awesome agricultural products, wine etc. Tourists will flock in, money flows and greeks will prosper again.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Brooke on June 29, 2015, 04:39:13 PM
USA and Japan (with much more severe debt to GDP ratio) will be an exception.
Which of these things do you think will happen, then? 1. The US and Japan will grow out of their debt (i.e., grow GDP significantly faster than debt for the next several decades). 2. The US and Japan will run budget surpluses for the next several decades and pay off the debt. 3. The debt of US and Japan is irrelevant and can stay the same or keep growing with no economic consequence.
If you believe 1 will happen, will it be through inflation or real growth? If you believe that 2 will happen, will it be through large increases in tax revenue or large reductions in government spending? If you believe that 3 will happen, then at what level does debt matter?
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Zimme83 on June 29, 2015, 04:47:30 PM
As long as a country can borrow money to pay their debt nothing will happen, US can borrow money and pay the debts only because the rest of the world believe they can. It a gigantic pyramide game were countries boost economy by borrow money from each others.
What could be interesting from the US standpoint is that most of the money is coming from China, is it really that wise to be so deeply in debt with what can be an enemy in a future conflict? And what happen if China "close the taps"? (And can Chinas economy make it without the US export?.)
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Brooke on June 29, 2015, 05:05:55 PM
If Greece will drop out of euro they will become very poor with the new currency. That's great news for a country that lives from tourism and has recently discovered oil and gas along with awesome agricultural products, wine etc. Tourists will flock in, money flows and greeks will prosper again.
After defaults, things usually remain bad until the country correctly restructures its economy and policies. Some countries' citizens perpetually vote for the wrong policies, even though history gives numerous clear lessons on what to do and what not to do.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Bodhi on June 29, 2015, 05:08:55 PM
After defaults, things usually remain bad until the country correctly restructures its economy and policies. Some countries' citizens perpetually vote for the wrong policies, even though history gives numerous clear lessons on what to do and what not to do.
I am kind of seeing dejavu on that statement here.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Brooke on June 29, 2015, 05:10:58 PM
As long as a country can borrow money to pay their debt nothing will happen, US can borrow money and pay the debts only because the rest of the world believe they can. It a gigantic pyramide game were countries boost economy by borrow money from each others.
I feel that the pyramid is reaching it's critical size.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Brooke on June 29, 2015, 05:12:24 PM
I feel that the pyramid is reaching it's critical size.
Yes, our economies growing mostly because we create money out of nothing and as i said it works as long as everyone believes in it. But most of our wealth is just air. All bubbles work that way, we overpay property etc because we believe we can get even more money for it when we sell it. But when people stops believe in it the market will collaps.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: PR3D4TOR on June 29, 2015, 05:40:58 PM
The market may collapse, but the property is still there. Nothing is destroyed or ruined, except for people who are speculating, gambling, in the market and are stuck with property they don't need and loans they can't repay. I cannot muster up any sympathy for them. People who buy property because they need it still have the property they need. And if they need to buy new property the price level will be the same as for the property they sell regardless if the price is higher or lower than before. People who live above their means (like the Greeks) get no sympathy from me.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Zimme83 on June 29, 2015, 05:48:05 PM
Impact on national economy can still be significant and a lot of people "on the bottom" will suffer from a collapse even if they dont have any overpaid property or something like that.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: PR3D4TOR on June 29, 2015, 06:22:15 PM
How? If the property marked is at rock bottom that is the exact time that people who before the collapse couldn't afford to buy a house, now can. People who had to rent instead of own. It's when property prices are high that poor people suffer, not the other way around. Especially young people who are trying to establish a family.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Zimme83 on June 29, 2015, 06:25:28 PM
Unemployment rate goes up, consumption goes down and then factories etc has to send people home.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: PR3D4TOR on June 29, 2015, 06:44:41 PM
Exactly how does the property market affect consumption and unemployment?
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Zimme83 on June 29, 2015, 06:49:47 PM
Why do u get so fixated at property? I took it as an example of how we create a bubble... This is about a lot more than just property, its about the entire financial market.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: PR3D4TOR on June 29, 2015, 06:54:00 PM
It was your comment on the property marked I had an issue with.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Zimme83 on June 29, 2015, 06:56:35 PM
Only look at the US, it was not the rich that took the hardest blow...
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: PR3D4TOR on June 29, 2015, 07:18:32 PM
The hardest blow was taken by those living above their means. People who owned houses with mortgages they could not possibly manage.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: BaldEagl on June 30, 2015, 02:15:56 AM
I haven't read this whole thread so forgive me if I missed it but the thing you all seem to be forgetting is that the world population continues to grow, and economies, as a result, will have to continue to grow to keep pace. The real problem is the normalization of living standards across the planet which will lead to localized instability for the foreseeable future.
As to the property debate, they aren't making any more land, and as population growth places additional demands on available resources, land ownership will be a long term winning proposition, although that may be measured in generations in lower population areas.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: bozon on June 30, 2015, 02:41:19 AM
What could be interesting from the US standpoint is that most of the money is coming from China, is it really that wise to be so deeply in debt with what can be an enemy in a future conflict? And what happen if China "close the taps"? (And can Chinas economy make it without the US export?.)
Owing money to your potential enemy is much better than owing an Allie. When war finally breaks out your debts are erased. If you owe an Allie you either have to pay or lose the alliance.
The US can go into ridiculous debts that it will never repay because it is the world's superpower. Though it seems that it is also determined to remove itself from that position.
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: zack1234 on July 01, 2015, 07:56:47 AM
Nazis and communists are two sides of the same socialist coin. Greece can't blame the EU or anyone else for the economic mess they've gotten themselves into (but they will of course). The whole country is riddled with economic and political corruption. No amount of aid money from the EU or anyone else will fix it. It can only be left to burn itself down and hope something better rises out of the ashes.
Gibberish and you know it.
Your all stuck in your own little paradyms,.
Its all a big charade like the cuban missles crisis, its already been sorted out, the kak in the media is for you lot to think you know whats going on.
The EU is cheaper than another world war and is a creation of the Marshall plan.
Greece is bone idle and will be given handouts to keep it quiet.
I wonder why they want the Ukraine in the EU i wonder?and its nothing to do with the Russians
Come on MrRipley try and think out of the box and not in relation to Finland :)
What are they going to use the Ultra nationalist Ukrainians for? :rofl
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: Bear76 on July 01, 2015, 03:39:30 PM
The Mighty Karnak (not *our* Karnak, the other one) sees Greece being booted out of the Euro, the drachma at levels not seen since the glory days of the Italian Lira, dark-haired, smokey-eyed beauties throwing themselves at foreign men (that's, ahem, me), and yours truly reclining in a brilliant white house overlooking the Aegean.
Ah yes, it will be mine.
I prefer my women to have less body hair than I do :rolleyes:
Title: Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
Post by: SysError on July 01, 2015, 03:58:53 PM
An interesting opinion piece by Krugman on Greece in the NYTimes.