Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Chris79 on September 29, 2015, 03:49:16 PM
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http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2015092912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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Nah.......were keeping an eye on it at work.....heavy rains at worst
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gfs model would paint 8+ inches if rain over pennsylvania. The euro has more rain around the chesapeake bay. the forcast confidence is very low right now, some of the lowest all year.
http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/746010265001/flooding-rains-east-this-week?autoStart=true&utm_source=accuweather&utm_medium=accuweather&utm_campaign=awx_videowal_lin
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"Joaquin Expected to Become a Hurricane Later Tonight or Wednesday"
http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane-central/AL112015
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
crazy how many weather forecast models they have; according with some of this could affect NY/Boston area, Sunday oct 4th;;
https://twitter.com/albo1912/status/648326287799398400
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQHACjoWIAA-r4c.jpg:large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQG-bBFUkAAum6g.png:large)
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Saw that GHI They're saying poss cat 2 by tonight/tommorow but should be a cat 1 / TS by the time it makes landfall. I'm guessing between DelMarVa and Ny. Thank goodness nothing like Sandy.....fall 2012/2013 is a blur....never been so busy in my life.
I live in SE PA (near Allentown) and we could use the rain....now 8" not so much lol. Although it will put me at ease worrying about my well.
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Saw that GHI They're saying poss cat 2 by tonight/tommorow but should be a cat 1 / TS by the time it makes landfall. I'm guessing between DelMarVa and Ny. Thank goodness nothing like Sandy.....fall 2012/2013 is a blur....never been so busy in my life.
I live in SE PA (near Allentown) and we could use the rain....now 8" not so much lol. Although it will put me at ease worrying about my well.
I'm not from around there but 8 inches in the mountains, after a dry year, eek. Sounds life threatening and a little like sandy.
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http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/channels/pastep
Virgina and Delmarva, heads up.
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I'm not from around there but 8 inches in the mountains, after a dry year, eek. Sounds life threatening and a little like sandy.
Nah.....Sandy was a certified monster storm. They were actually rain bands affecting Chicago when he came ashore in Jersey/New York. The scary part of the rain with this storm is the fact that between yesterday, today and for for tommorow,we've already got/predicted to get about 4 inches so the ground is saturated add another 8 inches on top of that and it's going to be a bit messy. Time will tell should know a bit more by Friday Saturday. I do know that my work is already looking for volunteers to go to storm hit areas. But in all honesty I would take this storm over Sandy every day of the week.
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My company is already putting together travel teams for this storm. So far we've been told to pack for seven days........
Pole dancing gets interesting some times......
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In terms of shear intensity, this storm will be stronger then Sandy. What made Sandy such a "monster" was that she transitioned from a tropical cyclone into a mid latitude cyclone. During that transition even though Sandy's pressure increased and wind speed decreased, the overall size of the storm expanded. It seems as though the forecast models will keep Joaquin a strictly tropical entity at landfall and possibly a Cat 3.
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Wait for Ghi "Worlds coming to an end except where I live" to show up. He'll tell you.
Edit: LOL, he already has. ;)
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In terms of shear intensity, this storm will be stronger then Sandy. What made Sandy such a "monster" was that she transitioned from a tropical cyclone into a mid latitude cyclone. During that transition even though Sandy's pressure increased and wind speed decreased, the overall size of the storm expanded. It seems as though the forecast models will keep Joaquin a strictly tropical entity at landfall and possibly a Cat 3.
The models show nicking NC as a cat 1 and heading N up the DelMarVa as a TS. That swipe of NC would kill it fairly quickly, bring it to a (intensity/ damage forcast) similar to Hurr Irene 2011 or TS Lee in the same year. Sandy was much worse than this one (at the moment that is....that could all go to hash real quick tho. Wait and see I suppose. (Don't get me wrong, both of those storms sucked and I'm sure this one won't be a picnic...but nothing like Sandy)
Good news is it looks like she may track west ....fingers crossed. Then again she may track directly at the bridge of my nose.....I hate this time in tracking these storms it's either Armageddon or nothing to worry about...I'm thinking 8pm tommorow we will have a better handle on it. Personally I'd rather she hit inland than skirt the coast....we would be on the NW side of the storm....
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12z gfs has staying off shore. This similar to what the euro said all along. :rolleyes:
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Yep fingers crossed.... Cat4 now tho, bit breezy :D
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Yep fingers crossed.... Cat4 now tho, bit breezy :D
Yeah cat 3 east of Georgia was not forecast yesterday. Tho they say the costal front will shear the storm. Hope it does not get sucked up the soon to be inverted trough. That would be similar sandy.
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As of 5 pm EST today, the path moved possibly further east (a good sign for us in VA). Still, in Virginia, and Carolinas we are heavily drenched from a stationary front dumping 4 inches of rain on us right now, and this is a separate event ahead of the effects of Joaquin. Storm surge will be the danger in coastal communities, due to its size and the amount of moisture it is bringing.
Sadly, this describes a familiar circumstance for those seaside communities from NC to Manhattan. Pray she goes WAY east or fizzles somehow. (neither appear too likely but could definitely happen)
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Can we re direct it and send it to central Texas please?
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Yea great, moving eastwards....I am betting it will whack us.
We had two last year, Fay first and then Gonzalo.
Here's a video of my son and I looking for gas after Gonzalo (and after the roads were cleared up):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-oeH6gCXdI
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Moved my Michigan game to noon for nothing...I've got a wedding to go to darn it.
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Moved my Michigan game to noon for nothing...I've got a wedding to go to darn it.
yeah but now I get to watch it!! Im sure you can find the highlights at MgoBlog. Its where I go if I need find something
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How warm is the chesapeake bay this time of year?
That's a large and warm body of water.
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And a consensus of scientists think they can forecast global weather 50 years from now. While all of your current models for this storm have to actually roll the dice, wait and see which is right.