Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Busher on May 13, 2020, 06:11:37 PM
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Apparently I am not allowed to post the daily numbers of Covid fatalities.
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It was where your audience took your post I suspect got you shut down.
Two days ago I could find rate of new cases, rate of infection and rate of death charts everywhere. Everywhere based per 100,000 or 1m is almost down to a 1.0 rate as predicted by Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel of Tel Aviv University for a 8 week life cycle of the SARS-CoV2 virus. This thing is almost over.
The next day Dr. Fauci was interviewed by the Senate and I was trying to reference those same sources and the rate of new cases, infection and deaths were no longer easy to find or in an easy format to contrast them to each other. Same for today when I took another look. You find almost all sources showing real numbers over time in huge graphs which scares the heck out of people while what they need to see are rates per day of hospitalizations, virus growth and deaths. Those as predicted are on a decline.
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Covid v.2 will be in theaters this September, so you'll get your chance.
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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
We have been through this several times in my life. Never have we closed the country. Really strange indeed................
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The only site (worldometers) I know to publish forecasting. They forecast for today and then below "Recovered" is the "Projections" link through July. I'm inclined to think the high of 2,300 to 2,400 will turn out to be closer through the period ending 8 June.
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We have been through this several times in my life. Never have we closed the country. Really strange indeed................
I continue to wonder why this panicdemic hasn’t occurred every year during the common flu season.
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I continue to wonder why this panicdemic hasn’t occurred every year during the common flu season.
Maybe they could not think of a way to strike fear into anyone over those deaths......
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I continue to wonder why this panicdemic hasn’t occurred every year during the common flu season.
We have seen instances in past years when a deadlier-than-normal flu virus was going around to make sure you got your shots, etc. Its just that there's a large amount of herd immunity to the flu... they aren't "novel" viruses. So they don't spread so easily, a large portion of the population can already resist them. Otoh, no one has immunity to covid-19 already. Everyone's going to catch it, its just a matter of when. If everyone catches it too quickly, then the hospitals get overwhelmed and people that could have survived given a non-overwhelmed hospital system will die.
The latter outcome is still on the table given that we're re-opening too soon (virus referenced).
P.s. I'm well aware that what's too soon for the virus is too late for businesses. These two things are in conflict. What's too soon for defeating the virus is too late for the economy. That's just two facts the politicians are going to reconcile in all different ways. The correct question is: How many people do you want to die for the economy? Its really that simple. If you say, "none", then you're just as unrealistic as the people who think we should never have shut them down in the first place.
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I still think I had it back in mid march. I cant tell though because nobody wants to do an antibody test to see. They just say "we have no way to test for antibodies" or "there is no means to do one"
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I continue to wonder why this panicdemic hasn’t occurred every year during the common flu season.
Because as my wife the surgeon tells me, this is not common flu. It's far more deadly. And its terribly contagious before the carrier is symptomatic.
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Because as my wife the surgeon tells me, this is not common flu. It's far more deadly.
dbl post - sorry
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Because as my wife the surgeon tells me, this is not common flu. It's far more deadly. And its terribly contagious before the carrier is symptomatic.
Exactly and it's not even a flu virus!
Busher,does she practice at Vic or the Uni hospital?....hmmm bet you didnt know we both live in the same little town Eh!
:salute
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I continue to wonder why this panicdemic hasn’t occurred every year during the common flu season.
thats funny there. reminds of the ER Doctor that said, 'In 20 years ive never seen anyone die of the flu.'
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Exactly and it's not even a flu virus!
Busher,does she practice at Vic or the Uni hospital?....hmmm bet you didnt know we both live in the same little town Eh!
:salute
LOL. I did not know. <S> Sir and stay safe.
She is retired like me - retired before we moved to this area.
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We have seen instances in past years when a deadlier-than-normal flu virus was going around to make sure you got your shots, etc. Its just that there's a large amount of herd immunity to the flu... they aren't "novel" viruses. So they don't spread so easily, a large portion of the population can already resist them. Otoh, no one has immunity to covid-19 already. Everyone's going to catch it, its just a matter of when. If everyone catches it too quickly, then the hospitals get overwhelmed and people that could have survived given a non-overwhelmed hospital system will die.
The latter outcome is still on the table given that we're re-opening too soon (virus referenced).
P.s. I'm well aware that what's too soon for the virus is too late for businesses. These two things are in conflict. What's too soon for defeating the virus is too late for the economy. That's just two facts the politicians are going to reconcile in all different ways. The correct question is: How many people do you want to die for the economy? Its really that simple. If you say, "none", then you're just as unrealistic as the people who think we should never have shut them down in the first place.
to soon? whats the end? waiting for a vaccine? Our hospital system just laid off 200 nurses! So much for over crowded hospitals! Leadership seems to be in a race to have the most appeasing story. politics!
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LOL. I did not know. <S> Sir and stay safe.
She is retired like me - retired before we moved to this area.
Thx and I am! We started social distancing in early Dec. as we both had some strange flu/cold.I missed s bunch of my Grandson's hockey games as a result but we didnt want to share the fun with others.
So you're both living the good life,enjoy it! Getting old isnt for the faint at heart! :devil
BTW I knew for a long time you lived here,we have a mutual acquaintance from the game.
:salute
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If incubation is 2 to 3 weeks shouldn't each expansion of the reopening of things have that time frame between each of them?
Why are states progressing faster reopening than testing would show if what they have reopened actually changed anything or not?
As hospitals are not overwhelmed I think they are trying to save their ecomonies.
Our maybe they realize they might have overstepped with the universal lockdowns in the first place?
The fear has been planted - the damage has been done.
Eagler
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Obviously covid19 has been fairly docile with so many having it and needing no hospitalization. Many barely have a cold.
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Obviously covid19 has been fairly docile with so many having it and needing no hospitalization. Many barely have a cold.
Yup, only 88,031 deaths in 5 months; 1,858 today. Yup docile. :rolleyes:
The Vietnam War caused 58,209 deaths and that took 8 years; and $168 billion (almost $1 trillion in 2020 dollars).
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Yup, only 88,031 deaths in 5 months; 1,858 today. Yup docile. :rolleyes:
The Vietnam War caused 58,209 deaths and that took 8 years; and $168 billion (almost $1 trillion in 2020 dollars).
Covid may have taken a lot less money wise. The money blown was mostly wasted elsewhere and on deadbeats.
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Yup, only 88,031 deaths in 5 months; 1,858 today. Yup docile. :rolleyes:
The Vietnam War caused 58,209 deaths and that took 8 years; and $168 billion (almost $1 trillion in 2020 dollars).
Again... how many deaths did we have as of the end of April 2018 compared to the end of April 2020?
If the # is relatively the same. Than we can conclude that they are just counting daily deaths for optics to scare people and keep the economy closed.
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Again... how many deaths did we have as of the end of April 2018 compared to the end of April 2020?
If the # is relatively the same. Than we can conclude that they are just counting daily deaths for optics to scare people and keep the economy closed.
From Health.com concerning the flu virus:
“This year's flu season is shaping up to be possibly less severe than the 2017-2018 season, when 61,000 deaths were linked to the virus. However, it could equal or surpass the 2018-2019 season's 34,200 flu-related deaths.
Overall, the CDC estimates that 12,000 and 61,000 deaths annually since 2010 can be blamed on the flu. Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year. “
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If you're implying a contrast to Covid to make it seem not so bad, its not working.
A large proportion of the population is exposed to the flu to reach those numbers. Covid has only reached a few percent of the population to exceed a bad flu year in only 2 months. We're on pace for 500,000 deaths this year, assuming the death rate doesn't increase when we open up for business, but of course, the death rate will increase.
Edit to add: Social distancing probably did wonders to knock down many viruses, not just covid. Even in the short time we did it, its possible some rarer viruses were driven to extinction.
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Not implying anything. Just presenting some numbers.
If you’re implying deaths from “common flu” seem not so bad, that isn’t working either.
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Again... how many deaths did we have as of the end of April 2018 compared to the end of April 2020?
If the # is relatively the same. Than we can conclude that they are just counting daily deaths for optics to scare people and keep the economy closed.
Deaths are 2x higher than year over year. scaring people is just as real as the virus.
watch out for building on assumptions. Its a complete waste of time if you are wrong. :old:
in other news. adding zinc to hcq has shown to reduce severe outcomes 50% vs. no zinc. makes logical sense too. hcq has been shown to be a zinc ionophore. The doctors are getting better information every day!
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Social distancing is killing your immune system. Admittedly it is at a slower rate than Covid would, but just think of how many newborns will pay the price for this policy.
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chalange, you should not talk of these things until after the election. :old:
The leaders have been telling such a good story! Dont muddle it with truth!
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chalange, you should not talk of these things until after the election. :old:
The leaders have been telling such a good story! Dont muddle it with truth!
Aw C'mon. Ya gotta admit Bill Pullman said it better.
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If you're implying a contrast to Covid to make it seem not so bad, its not working.
A large proportion of the population is exposed to the flu to reach those numbers. Covid has only reached a few percent of the population to exceed a bad flu year in only 2 months. We're on pace for 500,000 deaths this year, assuming the death rate doesn't increase when we open up for business, but of course, the death rate will increase.
Edit to add: Social distancing probably did wonders to knock down many viruses, not just covid. Even in the short time we did it, its possible some rarer viruses were driven to extinction.
No one knows how many have had covid19. They do know that many more than what have been tested have had it and are over it already.
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It was where your audience took your post I suspect got you shut down.
Two days ago I could find rate of new cases, rate of infection and rate of death charts everywhere. Everywhere based per 100,000 or 1m is almost down to a 1.0 rate as predicted by Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel of Tel Aviv University for a 8 week life cycle of the SARS-CoV2 virus. This thing is almost over.
The next day Dr. Fauci was interviewed by the Senate and I was trying to reference those same sources and the rate of new cases, infection and deaths were no longer easy to find or in an easy format to contrast them to each other.
Try this:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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In the UK many were "outing" the yearly death figures for A & B Flu to show that these things occur from time to time and that world leaders were on some sort of trip induced by mass panic and electoral concerns.........… Some of my friends among them...…………. they have all gone quiet now...…..
Indeed if we look at the UK we have now some 33k+ registered COVID deaths.. This where a doctor has put COVID 19 as a contributory factor to cause of death.
But if we go to the UK ONS web site we see something else.... our total deaths per week (above the five year rolling average for the same period) adds up to a lot more than the 33k+ reported. Even given normal yearly variations... more like 45k.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending1may2020 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending1may2020)
Look at the areas under those two curves....... clearly the overall additional "death rate" is 1 third higher than is being reported for COVID 19. Our health service is not overloaded...we have a surfeit of ICU beds (now only 40% of our ICU capacity is being used) yet apparently we also have a massive increase in death rate not reported as linked to COVID 19 as well as that linked to the same.
This surfeit was being out down to COVID linked care home deaths for the elderly....but those figures have since been corrected and added to the COVID data ( a hike of some 8k in total)………. some of the surfeit is still down to mis reporting in care homes in the early months...….also the death rate in care homes has increased for non COVID reasons...…….. or at least for non directly related COVID reasons...……. The consensus is that the pandemic is having secondary death rate implications in the UK.