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General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: MiloMorai on September 28, 2022, 08:21:24 AM

Title: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: MiloMorai on September 28, 2022, 08:21:24 AM
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season#:~:text=For%20the%202022%20hurricane%20season%2C%20NOAA%20is%20forecasting,NOAA%20provides%20these%20ranges%20with%20a%2070%25%20confidence.

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, are predicting above-average hurricane activity this year — which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: RotBaron on September 28, 2022, 09:50:05 AM
interview with CNN’s Don Lemon, National Hurricane Center acting director Jamie Rohme

Partial transcript as follows:

LEMON: Yes, that’s a big area. So, meteorologists, Jamie, have said that this storm could be entering another period of rapid intensification. Can you tell us what this is and what effect the climate change has on this phenomenon?

ROHME: Well, we can come back and talk about climate change at a later time. I want to focus on the here and now. We think the rapid intensification is probably almost done. There could be a little bit more intensification as it’s still over the warm waters of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, but I don’t think we’re going to get any more rapid intensification.

If you look here, you can actually see pretty interesting for your viewers. You can actually see a second eye wall forming around the inner eye wall, and that’s basically the second eye wall has overtaken the original eye wall, and that should arrest development.

LEMON: So, listen, I just — I’m just trying to get that you said you want to talk about climate change, but what — what effect does climate change have on this phenomenon that — that is happening now. Because it seems these storms are intensifying. That’s the question here.

ROHME: I don’t think you can link climate change to any one event —

LEMON: OK.

ROHME: — on the whole, on the cumulative, a climate change may be making storms worse. But to link it to any one event, I would caution against them.

LEMON: OK. Well, they — listen, I grew up there and these storms are intensifying something is causing them to intensify.


I know you want so badly for experts to say see this is caused by climate change (or global warming or global KOOLingAIDE), however when a career meteorologist and the US Hurricane Center Director will only grant you the possibility - “may be making storms worse”, you may want to question your convictions.

Additionally what satisfaction would you derive if you could prove you’re right?

Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: icepac on September 28, 2022, 10:03:25 AM
Not even close to 2004.
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: guncrasher on September 28, 2022, 10:03:45 AM
RotBaron have you checked what is happening in the Florida keys.


semp
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: MiloMorai on September 28, 2022, 10:18:20 AM
Not even close to 2004.

'04 had 15

'05 had 28

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/DataByYearandStorm.html
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Chris79 on September 28, 2022, 10:20:34 AM
The season as of now has been normal in terms of the “ACE” index. In my opinion 80% of climate change hype is the result of self aggrandizement of certain political figures and academicians.
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: MiloMorai on September 28, 2022, 10:24:52 AM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclones_by_year
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Chris79 on September 28, 2022, 10:26:50 AM
'04 had 15

'05 had 28

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/DataByYearandStorm.html

One thing to take note of is the criteria used to name and classify a cyclone as “tropical” has been relaxed. An interesting note, tornado activity has been on a decline. That’s especially telling because of the advancement of radar spotting technology would enable for a tornado to be documented  without being confirmed by a trained spotter. This in theory ought to cause tornadic incidents to increase especially in rural areas of the high plains but they have not.
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: MiloMorai on September 28, 2022, 10:35:30 AM
One thing to take note of is the criteria used to name and classify a cyclone as “tropical” has been relaxed. An interesting note, tornado activity has been on a decline. That’s especially telling because of the advancement of radar spotting technology would enable for a tornado to be documented  without being confirmed by a trained spotter. This in theory ought to cause tornadic incidents to increase especially in rural areas of the high plains but they have not.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_American_tornadoes_and_tornado_outbreaks#2020s
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: icepac on September 28, 2022, 10:41:58 AM
The fact that Katrina hit a city completely unprepared greatly skewed the damage total of the entire season…….and Katrina wasn’t that powerful.   
The majority of it’s damage toll was from flooding which occurred after the storm passed. 

(https://www.snopes.com/tachyon/images/katrina/graphics/heineken.jpg?resize=450%2C720&crop_strategy=smart)

The storms making landfall were stronger in 2004.

Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: MiloMorai on September 28, 2022, 11:00:11 AM

The majority of it’s damage toll was from flooding which occurred after the storm passed. 


Where did the water come from?
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: icepac on September 28, 2022, 11:32:13 AM
Water came from the storm hit an area with a history of flooding in which the city totally dropped the ball.   

I went through 2004 season in Florida and moved in 2005 to another part of Florida which guaranteed I experienced multiple hurricane eyes both years.   
My experience was that 2004 was far worse……and the record 2020 season ended up being pretty weak despite the “numbers”. 

Hurricane Katrina isn’t even in the top 10 rain bringers in that city’s history yet it’s known to be damaging.     
Imagine if 2004’s hurricane Jeanne had dropped what it did on Florida north of an unprepared New Orleans.   
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: RotBaron on September 28, 2022, 10:16:10 PM
RotBaron have you checked what is happening in the Florida keys.


semp

No, what is?
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: RUSH1 on September 28, 2022, 11:09:37 PM
Additionally what satisfaction would you derive if you could prove you’re right?[/color]

And that sir is the billion, I mean trillion dollar question.   
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: RUSH1 on September 28, 2022, 11:21:15 PM
The fact that Katrina hit a city completely unprepared greatly skewed the damage total of the entire season…….and Katrina wasn’t that powerful.   
The majority of it’s damage toll was from flooding which occurred after the storm passed. 

(https://www.snopes.com/tachyon/images/katrina/graphics/heineken.jpg?resize=450%2C720&crop_strategy=smart)

The storms making landfall were stronger in 2004.

Whatever happened to that corrupt bunch of losers who were running N.O. at the time?  You know, the same group who "redirected" federal funds earmarked for levy improvements just a few years prior.  Bush was such a p#$&/ as he sat back and basically took the blame for what that democrat run city caused.  Meanwhile in Gulfport and Biloxi ...
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Eagler on September 29, 2022, 06:11:06 AM
Whatever happened to that corrupt bunch of losers who were running N.O. at the time?  You know, the same group who "redirected" federal funds earmarked for levy improvements just a few years prior.  Bush was such a p#$&/ as he sat back and basically took the blame for what that democrat run city caused.  Meanwhile in Gulfport and Biloxi ...

This...it was more media corrupt manipulation

We had no idea it was just the beginning...

Eagler
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: guncrasher on September 29, 2022, 12:09:59 PM
Whatever happened to that corrupt bunch of losers who were running N.O. at the time?  You know, the same group who "redirected" federal funds earmarked for levy improvements just a few years prior.  Bush was such a p#$&/ as he sat back and basically took the blame for what that democrat run city caused.  Meanwhile in Gulfport and Biloxi ...

before you go and get upset.  6 investigations revealed that the primary cause was poor design and construction by the Corp of engineers.

semp
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: icepac on September 30, 2022, 06:17:56 AM

I hope New Orleans officials learns from Florida’s response and preparation to a hurricane much more damaging than Katrina.
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: bj229r on September 30, 2022, 04:44:21 PM
They had one of these reports after Katrina, and then we didn't have much of anything for a decade
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: -gg- on October 01, 2022, 10:37:16 PM
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season#:~:text=For%20the%202022%20hurricane%20season%2C%20NOAA%20is%20forecasting,NOAA%20provides%20these%20ranges%20with%20a%2070%25%20confidence.

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, are predicting above-average hurricane activity this year — which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.

And that prediction turned out to be wrong. Way wrong.
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: -gg- on October 01, 2022, 10:39:54 PM
The average number of Hurricanes is 14. So far we have had 9. We need 5 more this season (Ends Nov 30th) just to get to an average season.

More doom and gloom not happening.

Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: RUSH1 on October 01, 2022, 10:49:44 PM
before you go and get upset.  6 investigations revealed that the primary cause was poor design and construction by the Corp of engineers.

semp

Before you try to spin the facts, what happened to the federal money that was to go into the improvements of the levies?   
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: RUSH1 on October 01, 2022, 10:56:01 PM
I hope New Orleans officials learns from Florida’s response and preparation to a hurricane much more damaging than Katrina.

N.O. could have learned from gulf coast Mississippi, too.    Interesting how much better the surrounding areas faired absent all of the corruption.
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: RUSH1 on October 01, 2022, 10:58:18 PM
We need 5 more this season (Ends Nov 30th) just to get to an average season.

And you better believe that "they" are rooting for this to happen.   
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: oboe on October 01, 2022, 11:00:58 PM
And that prediction turned out to be wrong. Way wrong.

From your quote, NOAA predicted 6-10 hurricanes in 2022, and you say there have been 9 so far.  I don't understand why you think their prediction was wrong?   The way I read it, the actual results have been within their predicted range.

Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: guncrasher on October 02, 2022, 12:00:02 AM
Before you try to spin the facts, what happened to the federal money that was to go into the improvements of the levies?

you mean this money?

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2005-sep-04-na-levee4-story.html


semp
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: -gg- on October 02, 2022, 12:07:52 AM
From your quote, NOAA predicted 6-10 hurricanes in 2022, and you say there have been 9 so far.  I don't understand why you think their prediction was wrong?   The way I read it, the actual results have been within their predicted range.

Because the OP posted that they were predicting and above average hurricane season, and an average hurricane season is 14.

Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: -gg- on October 02, 2022, 12:12:26 AM
Correction - there have been 9 named storms. 4 have become hurricanes.

Average season is 14 named storms and 6-10 hurricanes.

The OP article has them predicting 14-21 named storms and 6-10 hurricanes.


I guess climate change relaxed a little this year. No doom and gloom and nothing out of the ordinary is happening. Period.

Quote
An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/noaa-adjusts-hurricane-season-forecast#:~:text=An%20average%20hurricane%20season%20produces,is%20not%20a%20landfall%20forecast.
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: MiloMorai on October 02, 2022, 01:01:22 AM
You still haven't clued in, have you. It is suble changes over time.
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: -gg- on October 02, 2022, 02:48:25 AM
You still haven't clued in, have you. It is suble changes over time.

You mean kind of like the subtle changes over time that have been happening since the beginning of time? The changes that have always happened?

The good news is that the climate has gotten warmer over time and allowed life on earth to flourish. I'm sure glad most of the glaciers melted away and made it possible for us to be alive right now.

Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Eagler on October 02, 2022, 07:36:15 AM
You still haven't clued in, have you. It is suble changes over time.

Sure it is or is it just the greatest boogeyman yet?

An undefined ever changing target with ever changing rules and regs to fight it with no real score card to see if you are winning or losing...and more power for those who make the rules...while they break the rules themselves that they enforce on their subjects..

Ain't buying it..

Eagler
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: bj229r on October 02, 2022, 08:18:16 AM
Isn't it about time for the annual global-warming-science-study-vessel to get stuck in the unexpected heavy ice near the South Pole?
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: -gg- on October 02, 2022, 09:29:34 AM
Back to the OP.

They predicted an above average hurricane season and it's well below average.

No doom and gloom. There never is.

Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: oboe on October 02, 2022, 09:38:24 AM
Correction - there have been 9 named storms. 4 have become hurricanes.

Average season is 14 named storms and 6-10 hurricanes.

The OP article has them predicting 14-21 named storms and 6-10 hurricanes.


I guess climate change relaxed a little this year. No doom and gloom and nothing out of the ordinary is happening. Period.

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/noaa-adjusts-hurricane-season-forecast#:~:text=An%20average%20hurricane%20season%20produces,is%20not%20a%20landfall%20forecast.

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season#:~:text=For%20the%202022%20hurricane%20season%2C%20NOAA%20is%20forecasting,NOAA%20provides%20these%20ranges%20with%20a%2070%25%20confidence.

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, are predicting above-average hurricane activity this year — which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.


Your criticism may be premature. 

NOAA predicted with 70% confidence that there was a 65% chance of an above normal season and a 25% chance of a near-normal season.   The season runs from June 1st to November 30th, so its only 2/3rds completed.  They predicted 3-6 category 3 or higher hurricanes; there have been 2 (Fiona and Ian), with 1/3 of the season remaining.   One more and they land within their predicted range of 3 to 6 category 3+ hurricanes.   And if they are correct on the number of severe hurricanes while the total number of named storms is lower than they expected, what does that say about the trend toward more severe storms?   (It reinforces the idea that storms are becoming more severe).

I'm not rooting for more storms so they are proved right; in fact I think with their stated confidence interval of only 70% and then allowing a 25% chance for a near normal and 10% for below normal, their prediction seems to have all the bases covered no matter what happens.   Which means it's not very useful prediction in the first place.   But I do appreciate NOAA's storm tracking and warning abilities.   I'm glad we have them.

<S>




     
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: -gg- on October 02, 2022, 09:52:02 AM
More to the point is that the OP likes to post things like that and point to climate change as the cause. Everything's going to hell because climate change!

I know they're not going to be 100% accurate or even close in their predictions. But the OP posted what they said because he thinks it will show how bad the climate is getting because of man-made global warming.
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Arlo on October 02, 2022, 10:08:23 AM
At this point I'm not sure if you're posting about your opinion on climate or your opinion of the op.  :headscratch:
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: bj229r on October 02, 2022, 10:15:45 AM
How much warming has there been since the 1880's (when we first started measuring  global temps) and now? Must have been a lot
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: -gg- on October 02, 2022, 10:28:22 AM
And there's the busybody. Doing what he does best.

Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Arlo on October 02, 2022, 10:37:09 AM
And there's the busybody. Doing when he does best.

What, noticing that you're more into making attacks on Milo than addressing his post? If you think he's wrong then stick to the subject matter.
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: RotBaron on October 02, 2022, 10:46:44 AM
How much warming has there been since the 1880's (when we first started measuring  global temps) and now? Must have been a lot

Oh no! Try not to upset them with critical thinking and logic, it interferes with their ability to completely angle from the emotional side. E.g. Polar bears on a tiny ice sheet seemingly in the middle of the ocean…
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Arlo on October 02, 2022, 10:48:05 AM
Oh no! Try not to upset them with critical thinking and logic, it interferes with their ability to completely angle from the emotional side. E.g. Polar bears on a tiny ice sheet seemingly in the middle of the ocean…

'Them' ... 'their' ... ?
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: -gg- on October 02, 2022, 10:53:17 AM
The easiest thing to do is just to look at history. Has global warming been bad or good? I mean, there's not even a question that warming has been a good thing. There are far more good things that came from warming than bad. Far more. Yet they spin everything to try to tell us we're "past the tipping point" and that everything is getting bad and we're all gonna die unless we start paying up.

It's all nonsense.

There's not one thing happening that's been anything but normal. Normal climate and weather changes. And the simple facts will show that every time the planet cooled, things died off. When the climate warmed -even to the point that there was much more Co2 and  most of the world's climate was a tropical furnace - life was more abundant on land and in the seas.
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Chris79 on October 02, 2022, 11:13:52 AM
(https://i.ibb.co/VgVcThH/2-F7-B1069-3626-4609-8-A66-B946-C7-D04276.jpg) (https://imgbb.com/)
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Rich46yo on October 02, 2022, 11:32:37 AM
Don Lemon is an imbecile. There is absolutely no supporting data that there are more hurricanes now then in the past. No worse ones.

Carbon emissions probably have something to do with global warming but if there even is global warming the connection is unproven. The earth has always gone thru cycles of heating up and cooling down. Certain large glaciers in the polar region have been increasing in size in recent years, animal populations are stable or increasing, the Polar bear population is very healthy.

This entire climate change thing has become not a science but a Political tool the leftwit media and very rich environmental mob have linked their careers to. Guys like John Kerry, the Climate Czar, given the title because his wife, the Ketchup Queen, donates major $$ to the Democrat party and all those Liberal causes. She bought him the title cause he needs to get out of the house and she provides him with the carbon spewing private jets he zooms around the world in to tell us serf's what terd's we are for using carbon spewing vehicles.

This movement has taken on a life of its own with very little actual science to back it up, and all the while the rich are getting richer because they are the ones in place to cash in on the Policy's they are spouting.
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Arlo on October 02, 2022, 12:39:55 PM
... with very little actual science to back it up ...

Really? No, seriously?  :O
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: nopoop on October 02, 2022, 01:58:44 PM
Seriously.
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Arlo on October 02, 2022, 02:11:16 PM
https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-change-evidence-causes/basics-of-climate-change/

https://www.epa.gov/climatechange-science/basics-climate-change

https://aps.org/policy/reports/popa-reports/energy/climate.cfm

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/03/causes-of-global-warming/

There's lots more but I guess climate change denial and science denial is one and the same. Then there's those that go 'warming up from the ice age was good so keep it up'.  :)
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: bj229r on October 02, 2022, 02:35:07 PM
Does any of those tell us how MUCH it has warmed?
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: -gg- on October 02, 2022, 02:42:41 PM
Does any of those tell us how MUCH it has warmed?

Or that warming is actually a bad thing?

The climate alarmists love telling us how bad things and that  it's the number one issue facing us all, but not one bad thing is happening .
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Arlo on October 02, 2022, 02:42:55 PM
Does any of those tell us how MUCH it has warmed?

Yes. But you have to read the articles to find the info.

(https://i.imgur.com/mwnSPem.png)
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Arlo on October 02, 2022, 02:45:25 PM
Or that warming is actually a bad thing?

It's easier to drink thawed ice (water) than ice but you'd be hard pressed to find someone who enjoys drinking steam. An exercise in what you're practicing.
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: -gg- on October 02, 2022, 03:03:36 PM
in fact, the worst things that are happening are a result of these climate alarmists limiting people's options for energy and even food as a result of their insane actions.
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Chris79 on October 02, 2022, 03:43:12 PM
From 7.5 years ago

First of all, I will not deny that the Earth could possibly be warming, nor will I deny that the Earth could possibly be cooling. In my experience some proponents of ACW approach it with religious fanaticism yet have little or no understanding of chemistry or physics relating to such ideals. Furthermore in my opinion Climatology is a borderline bogus science. I posted a condensed opinion a few days briefly explaneing the complexities of quantitatively proving the ACW theory, and yes it is just a theory. With this being said I will attempt to explain certain actual scientific aspects to ACW without delving into the political or financial intricacies pertaining to ACW.

Atmospheric Content.
1. N2, ~78% molar mass of ~28
2. O2, ~20.94% molar mass of ~32
3. Ar, ~.93% molar mass of ~36
4. H20 vapor, ~.4% molar mass of 18 "varies upon geographic location and altitude"
5. C02, .04, molar mass of 42. (Note that the molar mass of CO2 is significantly higher then that of other gasses excluding Argon. Furthermore, the atmosphere is not a solution, it is more of a colloid then anything.)
6. CH4, .00018% molar mass of 16.4

Now, N2, O2, and Ar are not green house gasses, where as H20, CO2 and CH4 are. Atmospheric green house gasses are an aggregate of roughly .44% of atmospheric content but they vary greatly in insulation properties and man is only responsible for variations of CO2 and CH4. There is however some correlation between an increase of C02 and a corresponding increase of atmospheric H20, but it really is like the chicken or the egg deal.
CP levels of Atmospheric Greenhouse gasses
1. H2O, 1.850
2. CO2, .709
3. CH4, 2.01

The higher the CP, the greater the insulator.

Now, if one took an example of the atmosphere at roughly 1000 feet, extracted the greenhouse gasses, and then compared the content both by percentage and its total effect on aggregate CP of the respective greenhouse gasses it would be as follows.
(Note, I fudged the percentage of H20 slightly downward in order to do a base 10 calculation)
1. H2O, 90.87%
2. CO2, 9.087%
3. CH4, .04089%
A quick glance shows that water vapor is by far the most prevalent atmospheric greenhouse gas. Now we will look at percent of CP.

1. H20, 96.265%
2. CO2, 3.831%
3. CH4, .0470%
Again, Water vapor.
Per the IPCC, humans have contributed roughly 18.18% of total carbon emissions. Although I find this organization to be dubious due to past scandals, I will use their information anyways.  By taking in account that humans contributed 18.18% of global CO2 emissions, and then recalculating the CP for that respective CO2 I conclude that human caused CO2 emissions are roughly .69% of total greenhouse gas CP. The only reason I even listed Methane CH4 is because someone earlier mentioned it. As you see it is insignificant.

As for climatology, as stated earlier, quantitative data pertaining to climate and weather in terms of temperatures have only existed for the past 110 or so years. Our current climate epoch is roughly 11700 years old which is directly related to the retreat of the glaciers following the Younger Dryas. Following the Younger Dryas the Earth has entered a period of fairly chaotic climatological patterns. Although there is no empirical evidence to support this,for the last 1500  years observation made mainly though clergy who for the most part were the only literate people for a long period of time supports this. For about the last 1500 years, there has been maximums and minimums, for instance there was a minimum that coincided with the fall of Rome. Afterwards there was a maximum around the time of the Viking expansion up toward the renaissance, then a long minimum ranging from 1550 to 1815 called the little ice age. Finally we are currently in the modern maximum. In between these long patterns there is some speculation that there are shorter 40 periods, one 20 year cooling trend and one 20 year warming trend. As for the cause of these climate patterns I have yet to be convinced on any one cause, although I am pretty certain its not HARP or Chemtrails. One thing I am certain of, is that there has been significant climate swings both on the cold and warm end of the spectrum long before the industrial age and the subsequent human population explosion.

My skepticism.
Certain organizations and scientists, have taken data collected pertaining to climate for only .94% of the current climate epoch, then conclude that human CO2 emissions will cause the Earth to warm to near catastrophic proportions, in which the man made portion of said emissions accounts for .69% of the insulating properties of .4418% percent of the atmosphere. It goes on, they will detract, degrade, slander, silence and in some cases threaten arrest for those whom disagree. If ACW theory is so absolutely sound and its proponents so ideological pure then it ought to stand well enough on its own. I have not even touched on the poor methodology in which they conduct their climate models, or the amount of wealth and power certain people and organizations have procured over this fiasco. Now I consider myself an educated man, other then threatening my standard of living and those of my fellow citizens I have no dog in the hunt. History have proven many things, humans fare better when its warmer, worse when its colder, and maybe in 5, 500, or 5000 years the ice will again relentlessly march south.
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: bj229r on October 02, 2022, 04:29:45 PM
Soooo...can ANYone tell me how much it's warmed since the 1880's? That would seem to be the most critical item
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Eagler on October 02, 2022, 04:32:04 PM
Me thinks regardless of the war on oil, each time you clear a field of grass and trees to pour a new road or build another strip mall you aren't helping the planet...

We are slowly consuming the works and putting everything on batteries isn't going to change that but it will make a new group of stooges much more powerful and richer

Eagler
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: -gg- on October 02, 2022, 06:21:59 PM
Nobody denies that the climate has warmed. What intelligent and thinking people understand is that there's not anything bad happening as a result AND that there's not anything anyone can do to control the climate.

I guess the goal for the climate alarmists  is to have the climate stay the same for the first time in the history of everything.  :rolleyes:

So we are supposed to try to stop the warming? Maybe have the UN vote on what to set the thermostat  at?   :rolleyes:

It's so amazing how ignorant most people are.
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: RUSH1 on October 02, 2022, 08:09:05 PM
Sure it is or is it just the greatest boogeyman yet?

An undefined ever changing target with ever changing rules and regs to fight it with no real score card to see if you are winning or losing...and more power for those who make the rules...while they break the rules themselves that they enforce on their subjects..

Ain't buying it..

Eagler

Pure poetry.
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Chalenge on October 02, 2022, 09:34:05 PM
It's all myth (lies):  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8iEEO2UIbA&ab_channel=JohnLockeFoundation

Still 130,000 glaciers. Gore was wrong. They haven't disappeared. Not one in his entire life.
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: bj229r on October 02, 2022, 10:52:27 PM
SSssoooo....HOW much has it warmed? Anyone?  Anyone?  Anyone?
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: -gg- on October 02, 2022, 11:02:19 PM
During the ice ages the ice came and went many times. It warmed and cooled. The last ice age only ended 10,000 years ago.

If you care to use your brain, you can look up the theories on what caused the ice ages and the interglacial periods (warming) during the ice ages. There was no manmade influences at all and that ice came and went - and even disappeared entirely. No polar caps.

Guess what they think caused it all? The earths orbit and rotation cycles and the sun. Go figure. That big ball of fire that gives us everything. Hard to believe that the tiny little sun might cause warming and cooling.

Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: MiloMorai on October 03, 2022, 01:52:15 AM
Five Ice Ages

Huronian
Researchers have identified five separate ice ages. The oldest of these is the Huronian glaciation which occurred 2.4 to 2.1 billion years ago! During this time, the only living organisms on earth were unicellular. Temperatures were so low that the entire globe was covered in ice and snow. Theories suggest that this was caused by a 250 million year period of volcanic dormancy. This lack of volcanic activity reduced the levels of carbon dioxide gasses which meant the earth didn’t experience the greenhouse effect. No greenhouse effect means lowered temperatures.

Cryogenian
The next glaciation period the earth confronted was the Cryogenian period which lasted for 200 million years. This event occurred approximately 850 to 635 million years ago during the Neoproterozoic era. Earth now had more complex life forms like multicellular organisms. Theories about this period claim that the existence of these creatures caused the ice age. The idea is that when these organisms died, they fell to the bottom of the seafloor, taking away the carbon dioxide. Again, the lack of carbon dioxide reduced the greenhouse effect.

Andean-Saharan
After the Cryogenian period, earth experienced the Andean-Saharan glaciation. This happened about 450 to 420 million years ago and brought with it the first major extinction. Glaciers first formed in what is now Africa and eastern Brazil and slowly covered present-day South America. During this period, trilobites, brachiopods, and cephalopods made up animal life. They were all lost to this ice age.

Karoo
The 4th major glaciation to occur was the Karoo period. This event happened 360 to 260 million years ago and saw the next mass extinction of flora and fauna. The Karoo period was brought on by an extreme increase in plant life. The Earth was covered in plants that consumed all of the carbon-dioxide in the atmosphere and emitted high levels of oxygen. The oxygen was so high that the greenhouse effect did not happen, leading to yet another ice age.

Quarternary
Surprisingly, the earth is currently experiencing a glacial period. This one started about 2.58 million years ago and is still going on, this time with significantly milder temperatures. Antarctica first froze over about 14 million years ago due to the creation of the Himalayan mountains. The higher they grew, the more weathering they were exposed to which decreased carbon dioxide levels. This time, the glacial and interglacial periods were controlled by the orbiting of the earth and the levels of sun that reached the surface. The periods alternated every 41,000 years until 1 million years ago when the glacial periods changed to a cycle of 100,000 years. These cooled down temperatures possibly resulted in the evolution of homo-sapiens. Human brains became larger and when the ice caps moved closer to the poles, humans began to cultivate agriculture which led to today’s modern civilization.

What The Future Holds
Nobody has the exact idea of what the future holds for temperatures and glacial activity on Earth. Scientists agree that the Earth's temperature has certainly been getting warmer, with record-breaking warm annual temperatures. The melting of glaciers expands ocean water, which makes many areas of the world vulnerable to flooding. Among the effects of melting glaciers are shoreline erosion and salt water intrusion.
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: bj229r on October 03, 2022, 06:58:22 AM
CLEARLY, the Earth must be getting a lot warmer, what with melting glaciers and all, I wonder how much?
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Eagler on October 03, 2022, 07:00:32 AM
Didn't this crowd have to change their dire warning from global warming to climate change as it wasn't getting hot enough consistently enough for global warming to stick...

Climate change is much better as they can use their spooky voices with every wild fire to hurricane to flood news reports

Gotta laugh at their egos to think they think can change it

Me don't think its about the weather or climate as nothing is as it seems anymore imo

Gore was full of it then as they are with it now..just another do as I say not as I do power play by those that can force it to happen

Eagler
Title: Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: MiloMorai on October 03, 2022, 08:23:23 AM
"global warming to climate change"

One and the same.