General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Eagler on October 13, 2022, 08:39:01 AM
Title: Pop goes the market
Post by: Eagler on October 13, 2022, 08:39:01 AM
Who would have thunk that printing trillions of dollars since 2009 artificially pumping up value of everything and then shutting down the world would cause such bloated values on everything that just about everything is at record prices while the world implodes as true value reset is attempted...
2023 should be good and depressing
How are your 401k looking this morning?
They will look much worse soon
And the sick part is all of this should have been expected and was preventable
Hoping we don't kill the petrol dollar too with SA or we will see a USA that no one wants to see nor live in..
Eagler
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: Arlo on October 13, 2022, 08:50:58 AM
And a fine morning to you, too.
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: CptTrips on October 13, 2022, 09:29:47 AM
(https://i.redd.it/nosdpopzi9o61.jpg)
IMHO, we just finished with the "Return to Normal" Bull trap with this last rally.
IMHO, the real fear, capitulation and despair phase is about to begin. BTW, we just broke below the 200 week moving average. If it can't claw back above that in a couple of days, watch out for trap doors.
"Winter is coming..." (https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/gameofthrones14_a_p.jpg?w=1024)
(P.S. Not to say there won't be future Bear rallies along the way. There always are in order to keep pumping the dumb money on the way down. Crashes don't occur in straight lines.)
(P.P.S. IMHO, fair value at the "Return to Mean" phase might very well be around SP @ ~2000. )
(P.P.P.S The buy-the-dip Bro's on Youtube drive me crazy. They always quote Buffett about fear and greed. They fail to quote his other statement. Rule of investing #1: don't lose money. Rule #2: see rule #1. If you lose money, you have less to take advantage of the subsequent turn upward. If you lose 50%, you then have to earn 100% on what's left just to break even. It's hard to earn 100% profit. Really hard. A lot harder than it is to lose 50%.)
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: Eagler on October 13, 2022, 09:34:18 AM
I think in about a month ..around the 2nd week in November the bottom will truly drop out as some of the reasons to keep it propped up will be past..
The next rate hike should be interesting too
Eagler
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: Eviscerate on October 13, 2022, 09:37:36 AM
Just pointing out the facts while avoiding calling out the obvious
Keep it up and you can get this thread locked or please contribute something useful to it
Eagler
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: Eagler on October 13, 2022, 09:48:39 AM
Thanks CptTrips
Yes not sure why anyone is buying into this bloated market as it has a way to fall in order to provide real value imo
No one has patience these days, they expect everything to happen in a 30 minute sitcom and don't realize it will take a while to get us somewhat out of this mess as it took years to get here..
Not buying anything until it implodes and the fed starts the next bubble with lower rates and the next round of QE funny money..
Rinse and repeat
Eagler
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: RotBaron on October 13, 2022, 09:57:44 AM
But I do have some investments, my FA moved our holdings at the start of the lock down to B and B’s,that banks and bonds. Sure the returns dropped like a stone but we only lost a little and the returns are small so I’m liking the interest rate hikes.
The banks have dropped some but we got in at lower prices than the drop so we’re still treading water,besides it’s all just paper until you start taking money out which I don’t plan to do for a few more years anyways.
We don’t carry any debt,everything is paid for so interest rate hikes don’t bother me,I’d like to see then go much higher,then my returns will go up. If things go really bad I can always sell my wife…. :devil
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: CptTrips on October 13, 2022, 01:38:29 PM
When you're in your 60's and you lose that much of your nest egg there's more than a little to be anxious about
Indeed. Those that say stuff like that are either young with decades more work time to make up the loses, or they don't have much money in the market to worry about.
Those that are in or on the edge of retirement depending on their investments best pay attention.
Then they'll say, the market always comes back. That's true. it will. I guarantee you that 100 years from now the market will be higher than it is today.
Can a guaranteed that a year from now? 5 years from now? 10 years from now? Maybe, maybe not. The NASDAQ took ~14 YEARS to claw back to pre-Tech Crash. 14 years just to get back to even. All during that time you money is locked up unless you are willing to lock in a loss. So even after you get back to even, you lost 14 years of opportunity cost where you earned nothing. If you were young and DCA in during that time with more income, then it wasn't so bad. If you were retired at the time, you just have to stare at that hole in your retirement for a loooooong time.
IMHO, there is a non-zero chance that the broad market will not get back to it's high last Nov for maybe 8-10 years.
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: Eagler on October 13, 2022, 01:53:51 PM
Yes it's timing ..
My 36 yo son doesn't have the concern his 63 yo father does...
The fed will reverse course before they shake out the bloated fraud called the market today
Once they stop raising be ready for the rate reduction and next round of QE..then hopefully we can get some of this back...
Watch England for how it might go here...they already had to start printing again to save pensions over there...
Same thing will happen here
Eagler
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: Shuffler on October 13, 2022, 04:02:49 PM
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: guncrasher on October 13, 2022, 10:48:32 PM
IlI
semp
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: waystin2 on October 14, 2022, 06:38:44 AM
I am buying all the way through this and will continue to do so. A drop just means better buys! The long term is all that matters. Next week, next month and even next year are not really relevant to me right now. :aok
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: bj229r on October 14, 2022, 06:58:15 AM
Well, I'm gonna with my buy high, sell low plan
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: Eagler on October 14, 2022, 07:05:00 AM
I am buying all the way through this and will continue to do so. A drop just means better buys! The long term is all that matters. Next week, next month and even next year are not really relevant to me right now. :aok
I would only suggest buying now if you don't need it for at least 5 if not 10 years or if you plan on selling it once the fed reverses course and lowers rates and prints trillions to pull us out of the nose dive we are in..
Then there should be a small window of crazy gains as everyone jumps back in as the new market bubble rapidly expands..
That bubble burst might be it for the good ole US of A as the reserve currency...all bets are off if/ when that happens
Eagler
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: DmonSlyr on October 14, 2022, 07:45:02 AM
Fed is holding the country hostage. Simple as that. Like how you gonna spook the market when job #s are up? It's so pathetic right now what they are doing. It's like they want the economy to stagnate while many smaller businesses are finally starting to get ahead after covid. Totally manipulated downfall because businesses aren't struggling at all besides big tech.
With tech stocks crashing its also brining the rest of the market down as so much money was invested in those companies, the volatility has crushed many portfolios and dragging the market with it on top of the Fed.
I've been buying as much as I can. When the market pops again I'm hoping to make some good bank. Some companies are so far sold off its ridiculous. It's like fundamentals don't even matter anymore. Every stock just doing the same exact thing almost. Really shows how manipulated the markets are.
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: Eagler on October 14, 2022, 08:21:59 AM
Nothing is oversold imo as they were bloated for years with basically interest free money...that is the crime here, they didn't raise rates during the last 6 years...instead they cut further to keep the bloated market going up..
Criminal as the brains behind this had to see where it was taking us but didn't care as they were blinded by $$$$$$!
Eagler
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: bj229r on October 14, 2022, 08:49:52 AM
You can't make $4 trillion a year and spend $6 trillion a year forever
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: DmonSlyr on October 14, 2022, 01:00:31 PM
AMD 91B market cap. PE ratio 24. 2.36 EPS. Rev 20B Loss 60% YTD
MU 58B market cap. PE ratio 6.9. 7.75 EPS. Rev 30B, Loss 42% YTD
So how is it that an amazing fundamental company like MU has lost 42% with a 7.75 EPS and 6 PE just getting rekt almost the same way as AMD which was overbought and overpriced. So why has MU been so volatile in decline? Doesn't it make you wonder? Like shouldn't MU only have lost 15% or so? The valuations are just so lopsided which is why so many people have lost big during this decline.
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: CptTrips on October 14, 2022, 01:35:01 PM
AMD 91B market cap. PE ratio 24. 2.36 EPS. Rev 20B Loss 60% YTD
MU 58B market cap. PE ratio 6.9. 7.75 EPS. Rev 30B, Loss 42% YTD
So how is it that an amazing fundamental company like MU has lost 42% with a 7.75 EPS and 6 PE just getting rekt almost the same way as AMD which was overbought and overpriced. So why has MU been so volatile in decline? Doesn't it make you wonder? Like shouldn't MU only have lost 15% or so? The valuations are just so lopsided which is why so many people have lost big during this decline.
Again (as explained in a previous thread), it doesn't matter what MU has done in the past. The market doesn't care. What matters now is future guidance. Demand is dropping and Micron is going to have an over-supply sitting on their shelves. That is value locked up in inventory and not returned to investors. Likely significant price drops will be need to clear that excess stock. That's less profits. We are in a risk-off era now Any company showing likely challenges in the next year are risk-off. If there are better investments available, money will move out of MU and into something else. The market doesn't owe MU any loyalty. It's business.
Just because you lose money on a stock pick, doesn't mean there is some dark international conspiracy. You just made a bad stock pick (for the near term). So hold onto it. It will eventually come back, but maybe not for a year or two.
Quote
However, Microns management produced weak guidance moving forward. According to the CEO Sanjay Mehrotra, Recently, the industry demand environment has weakened, and we are taking action to moderate our supply growth in fiscal 2023.
The Non-GAAP earnings are forecasted to be between $1.43 and $1.83 per share in the fiscal fourth quarter, which is lower than the conesus analyst estimate of $2.62 per share.
The company annouced that they will take "immediate action" to reduce supply growth trajectory. Micron has plans to use excess inventory this year to supply "part of the market demand next year." While the company stressed this is just expected to be a short-term downturn, investors are still upset.
Again (as explained in a previous thread), it doesn't matter what MU has done in the past. The market doesn't care. What matters now is future guidance. Demand is dropping and Micron is going to have an over-supply sitting on their shelves. That is value locked up in inventory and not returned to investors. Likely significant price drops will be need to clear that excess stock. That's less profits. We are in a risk-off era now Any company showing likely challenges in the next year are risk-off. If there are better investments available, money will move out of MU and into something else. The market doesn't owe MU any loyalty. It's business.
Just because you lose money on a stock pick, doesn't mean there is some dark international conspiracy. You just made a bad stock pick (for the near term). So hold onto it. It will eventually come back, but maybe not for a year or two.
Yes, that is for the entire tech industry really along with uncertainty in China markets. That being said, doesn't explain why MU should have a 6 PE while AMD has a 24 PE when MU has a far better net profit and profit margin and will still have a better EPS than AMD by almost double.
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: CptTrips on October 14, 2022, 02:25:34 PM
Yes, that is for the entire tech industry really along with uncertainty in China markets. That being said, doesn't explain why MU should have a 6 PE while AMD has a 24 PE when MU has a far better net profit and profit margin and will still have a better EPS than AMD by almost double.
I don't understand what you are getting at.
MU had better numbers than AMD and didn't go down as much as AMD. They all go down because of the difficult guidance they are all projecting forward. Maybe investors think AMD has better forward prospects than MU (regardless of their past performance). Sorry if the market didn't behave exactly as you think it should. You better get used to that if you are going to continue investing.
Exactly who do you think is manipulating MU down unfairly, how are they doing it, and why? The Illuminati? Reptilians?
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: DmonSlyr on October 14, 2022, 02:39:00 PM
MU had better numbers than AMD and didn't go down as much as AMD. They all go down because of the difficult guidance they are all projecting forward. Maybe investors think AMD has better forward prospects than MU (regardless of their past performance). Sorry if the market didn't behave exactly as you think it should. You better get used to that if you are going to continue investing.
Exactly who do you think is manipulating MU down unfairly, how are they doing it, and why? The Illuminati? Reptilians?
I certainly think there are bigger forces at play running the market. Hell I saw 30M volume on a stock with a 3M float avg 200k 90 day volume only go up .85 cents after it has sold off 70% on the year. I don't think anything makes since in this market. All I am pointing out is that valuations aren't being considered in this current market sell-off.
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: Eagler on October 14, 2022, 03:19:16 PM
As just about everything else today is corrupt and manipulated why would one think the market wasn't also?
It's always been big money taking the pocket change of the little money ppl imo
Eagler
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: CptTrips on October 14, 2022, 04:31:29 PM
As just about everything else today is corrupt and manipulated why would one think the market wasn't also?
It's always been big money taking the pocket change of the little money ppl imo
Eagler
The Fed manipulates markets in the aggregate. They manipulate whole asset classes at a gross resolution. They did not decide to manipulate MU specifically because they found out DmnSlayer had bought shares.
So you tell me: Who manipulated MU? How? and why?
If you can say it is manipulated because it goes down, can I say it is being manipulated if it goes up?
The street had estimated their forward EPS at $2.42. Now MU is admitting that it might be as low as $1.43. And that is non-GAAP. "Real" numbers (GAAP) are probably going to be even worse. Non-GAAP is basically "how far can I lie without actually going to prison" numbers. -42% doesn't seem out of line given what MU is likely to be facing over the next year and the current risk-off sentiment. I don't give a fig what their historical numbers were. The only thing that matters is how much money will they make me going forward.
If you think the street is so wrong on MU, fine. Buy more. Go all in. Sell the house. Buy on margin.
Assuming that every time you lose money on a stock pick that there must be dark, mysterious conspiracies that caused it, is like accusing anyone who shoots you down in the arena of being a hack.
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: CptTrips on October 14, 2022, 05:00:58 PM
BTW...
The street estimated EPS at $2.42. MU is now admitting it might be as low as $1.43 (probably even lower). That's around 41% drop in EPS from the consensus.
MU share price is down 42% YTD.
Yeah. Definitely Reptilian Illuminati.
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: Eagler on October 14, 2022, 05:21:43 PM
I am not talking specific companies I am speaking of the entire market
Eagler
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: CptTrips on October 14, 2022, 05:38:11 PM
I am not talking specific companies I am speaking of the entire market
Eagler
Then on that we can agree. Overall asset class valuations are manipulated by the Fed easy money.
DmonSlayer was insinuating that for some reason MU was being manipulated unfairly relative to AMD. There is nothing I see that would support that claim.
MU's 41% projected drop in EPS (probably going to be even worse) seems to reasonably support a 42% drop in their current share price.
If you tell me you are going to make me 40% less money than you thought at the beginning of the year, then I am going to view your shares as 40% less valuable to me than I thought at the beginning of the year.
Seems pretty reasonable given the current and projected circumstances. No need to look for dark sinister forces out to get MU specifically.
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: guncrasher on October 14, 2022, 06:06:39 PM
remind me of gamestop, now that was being manipulated like hell and a couple of others.
semp
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: CptTrips on October 14, 2022, 06:51:08 PM
remind me of gamestop, now that was being manipulated like hell and a couple of others.
semp
By manipulated you mean a bunch of people on Reddit decided to go buy the stock at pretty much the same period time.
I don't call that manipulation. I call that poor investing.
Is it manipulation when a bunch of people go buy Tesla all at the same time when some new model announcement comes out? If an investing club discuss a stock at their meeting and all the members decide to go home and buy some on pretty much the same day, is that manipulation?
Just buying and selling stock in whatever quantities or timespan (assuming no insider information) doesn't seem like manipulation to me. How would I ever prove I'm buying a lot of a stock because I just like it vs trying to manipulate the price? Buying and selling alone can't be the definition of manipulation.
To me, manipulation is blatant insider trading, significant misrepresentation of the financials or an attempt to hide materially adverse information concerning the company's viability. Shorting a stock and then publicly spreading false rumors to drive the price down.
Gamestop was just stupid Reddit Apes being stupid Reddit Apes. Apes are gonna ape. Most lost their butts on that.
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: CptTrips on October 14, 2022, 09:44:47 PM
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: Peanut1 on October 15, 2022, 12:17:27 AM
I am so thrilled to see people loosing their rear ends. I have never once nor will I ever be negatively affected by bs stock market chit. In fact, my work provides necessary goods and services that have actual value unlike 92% of the American workforce. Live like a piss on and you'll be pissed on.
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: CptTrips on October 15, 2022, 12:36:54 AM
I am so thrilled to see people loosing their rear ends. I have never once nor will I ever be negatively affected by bs stock market chit. In fact, my work provides necessary goods and services that have actual value unlike 92% of the American workforce. Live like a piss on and you'll be pissed on.
You must be a blast at parties. :rolleyes: :rofl
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: Eagler on October 15, 2022, 08:02:09 AM
I am so thrilled to see people loosing their rear ends. I have never once nor will I ever be negatively affected by bs stock market chit. In fact, my work provides necessary goods and services that have actual value unlike 92% of the American workforce. Live like a piss on and you'll be pissed on.
Where do you think pensions and 401ks are?
It's more than just the richest getting richer with their spare change...it's the retirement $$$$ for the majority of us
Eagler
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: CptTrips on October 15, 2022, 11:23:09 AM
Not sure what the market will do in the short term. In the medium term, IMHO, we'll see SP 3000 before we see 4000 again.
I think forward guidance in the coming earning season is going to be more meaningful than the earnings themselves.
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: Eagler on October 15, 2022, 01:26:40 PM
I hope it goes down..quickly so the recovery can begin
The longer they drag this out the deeper and longer the pain will be felt imo
I see nothing getting better in 2023 if they are serious about reining in this record inflation...some might finally admit we are in a recession as we truly balance on falling into depression by then..
Best make sure the ink cartridges stay fresh in those free money printers as you never know when you will have to fire them up again in super print speed mode...
Eagler
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: bj229r on October 15, 2022, 07:25:29 PM
The longer the interest rates stay high, businesses will start failing, housing construction will ebb, and unemployment will rise. Not gonna be a quick one this time
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: CptTrips on October 15, 2022, 09:12:51 PM
The longer the interest rates stay high, businesses will start failing, housing construction will ebb, and unemployment will rise. Not gonna be a quick one this time
And if they don't raise rates you'll be taking a wheel barrel of cash to go get a loaf of bread. It's a conundrum.
The problem is, pain is already baked into the cake. The system has been too far deviated from equilibrium to snap back without breaking something. There is no graceful way to revert back to the Mean at this point.
You can choose to get kicked in the stones or a broken nose. Either way, it's gonna hurt.
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: Citabria on October 16, 2022, 03:31:45 AM
What is the estimated value of the stock market? $49 trillion.
How much US currency in all forms existed in 2020? $4 trillion.
How much US currency in all forms exists in 2022? $20 trillion.
The market has never made a profit but we are meant to think it did. The Monopoly money we are forced to use has been counterfeited since 1913 in quantities beyond imagination by the Federal reserve itself.
The Creature from Jekyll Island is worth a read or listen if you are interested in why all of this is happening and has been happening for ages.
Taxes pay for only a small percentage of US government expenditures.
As for market BS… If you haven’t already moved your 401k into an uninvested PCRA or at least to the money market like you should have in 2021 expect more losses on a grand scale on top of the devaluation losses caused by multiplying 4 x 5 = 20 out of nothing.
The money left is worth 1/5 what it was two years ago but only an estimated $8 trillion of the now $20 trillion has made it into the hands of the peasants, serfs and middle class hence why most prices have doubled in commerce.
$12 trillion of the $20 trillion in existence more or less remains to flood the system and it will in time and that is just what has been created so far.
“They” have unlimited money created out of nothing and intentionally devalue what you have to monopolize everything.
The market never went up. The value of your shekels went down and the only option “they” allow the masses to partially counter this devaluation is a corrupt stock market casino that is overvalued at $49 trillion and dropping when all US currency in existence today is $20 trillion.
This is the largest Ponzi scheme of all time.
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: Eagler on October 16, 2022, 07:57:24 AM
The Creature from Jekyll Island....this!
Fester hit all the nails on the head imo and is why we are not anywhere near a real bottom
I don't believe they have the stones to break it as badly as needed to restore true value..instead they will drag this out to get interest rates up just bit more and QT vacuum some of the chump change out of it but imploding pensions among many other ramifications caused by this fraud correction attempt will force the "pivot" back to full blown QE and lower rates again doing nothing but making the rich richer while spinning up the next bubble
We implode then as the globe is over our greed and foolishness and select a new reserve currency back by something other than debt and a military ...which might be the only action left in an attempt to pull the country out of a nose dive
And all of this would have been avoided if greed wasn't the main motivation these days..
Fasten your seat belts as way too many regular folks will see much turbulence ahead imo
I pray I am incorrect on this for sure...
Eagler
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: CptTrips on October 16, 2022, 08:52:02 AM
You can squeak and whine about the Fed all you want (you're not completely wrong), but unless you get elected king, it is what it is. I'm old enough to have given up worrying about saving the world. I assume I'm not personally going to be given authority to reorganize the world's economic system at this point. Pffft. Their loss.
I reserve my energy for trying to understand the nature of the current state and how to profit off it instead of being crushed by it.
I closed out all my long positions last Dec. My only investment now is in a fund using options to short the market, so I can profit as it's going down. Does that make my views about an impending crash self serving? Yes. But I bought that fund because I already believed the crash was coming, not the other way around.
History doesn't repeat, but damn, some times it rhymes. This is pretty freaky...
(https://i.redd.it/cg4ezg0ps2g91.jpg)
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: CptTrips on October 16, 2022, 09:10:31 AM
What is interesting about that chart at the moment is what does it portend for the rest of the year. The curves don't correlate 100% so it's hard to discern whether we are in for a final bit of Bear rally before the final roll-over.
We usually have a Santa rally. That wouldn't surprise me. Fund managers who have a requirement to hold a certain percentage of assets in equities and have been in cash these last months have to buy up some stock to satisfy their year end statements.
On the other hand, a lot of people are looking at losses for the year so there could be a lot of tax loss selling to balance out a Santa rally.
In either case, I don't see this current business cycle as having hit bottom. Not sure what the rest of this year holds, but I believe a large chuck of next year is going to be that long slay ride to Hell. I think it will be worse than 2008 and 2001, but not as bad as 1929.
Title: Re: Pop goes the market
Post by: CptTrips on October 16, 2022, 09:36:22 AM
On a happier note, I think inflation will moderate significantly by next spring. 2%? No, I don't think so. But 4% would be a huge help for a lot of people. Right now wage workers and retirees are getting crushed at 8%+.