Pop goes the market

[CptTrips]

When you're in your 60's and you lose that much of your nest egg there's more than a little to be anxious about

Indeed.  Those that say stuff like that are either young with decades more work time to make up the loses, or they don't have much money in the market to worry about.

Those that are in or on the edge of retirement depending on their investments best pay attention.

Then they'll say, the market always comes back.  That's true. it will.  I guarantee you that 100 years from now the market will be higher than it is today.

Can a guaranteed that a year from now?  5 years from now?  10 years from now?  Maybe, maybe not.  The NASDAQ took ~14 YEARS to claw back to pre-Tech Crash.  14 years just to get back to even.  All during that time you money is locked up unless you are willing to lock in a loss.  So even after you get back to even, you lost 14 years of opportunity cost where you earned nothing.   If you were young and DCA in during that time with more income, then it wasn't so bad.  If you were retired at the time, you just have to stare at that hole in your retirement for a loooooong time.


IMHO, there is a non-zero chance that the broad market will not get back to it's high last Nov for maybe 8-10 years.
 

[Eagler]

Yes it's timing ..

My 36 yo son doesn't have the concern his 63 yo father does...

The fed will reverse course before they shake out the bloated fraud called  the market today

Once they stop raising be ready for the rate reduction and next round of QE..then hopefully we can get some of this back...

Watch England for how it might go here...they already had to start printing again to save pensions over there...

Same thing will happen here

Eagler

[Shuffler]

Guess some folks just always need a reason to be fearful. If it isn't this, it's that.

You don't need to worry if you are living off our money.

[guncrasher]

You don't need to worry if you are living off our money.

you giving money away? I could use some


semp

[Elfie]

you giving money away? I could use some


semp

I already took it all, sorry, not sorry.

[guncrasher]

                   IlI


semp

[waystin2]

I am buying all the way through this and will continue to do so.  A drop just means better buys!  The long term is all that matters.  Next week, next month and even next year are not really relevant to me right now.

[bj229r]

Well, I'm gonna with my buy high, sell low plan

[Eagler]

I am buying all the way through this and will continue to do so.  A drop just means better buys!  The long term is all that matters.  Next week, next month and even next year are not really relevant to me right now.

I would only suggest buying now if you don't need it for at least 5 if not 10 years or if you plan on selling it once the fed reverses course and lowers rates and prints trillions to pull us out of the nose dive we are in..

Then there should be a small window of crazy gains as everyone jumps back in as the new market bubble rapidly expands..

That bubble burst might be it for the good ole US of A as the reserve currency...all bets are off if/ when that happens

Eagler

[DmonSlyr]

Fed is holding the country hostage. Simple as that. Like how you gonna spook the market when job #s are up? It's so pathetic right now what they are doing. It's like they want the economy to stagnate while many smaller businesses are finally starting to get ahead after covid. Totally manipulated downfall because businesses aren't struggling at all besides big tech.

With tech stocks crashing its also brining the rest of the market down as so much money was invested in those companies, the volatility has crushed many portfolios and dragging the market with it on top of the Fed.

I've been buying as much as I can. When the market pops again I'm hoping to make some good bank. Some companies are so far sold off its ridiculous. It's like fundamentals don't even matter anymore. Every stock just doing the same exact thing almost. Really shows how manipulated the markets are.

[Eagler]

Nothing is oversold imo as they were bloated for years with basically interest free money...that is the crime here, they didn't raise rates during the last 6 years...instead they cut further to keep the bloated market going up..

Criminal as the brains behind this had to see where it was taking us but didn't care as they were blinded by $$$$$$!

Eagler

[bj229r]

You can't make $4 trillion a year and spend $6 trillion a year forever

[DmonSlyr]

AMD 91B market cap. PE ratio 24. 2.36 EPS. Rev 20B Loss 60% YTD

MU 58B market cap. PE ratio 6.9. 7.75 EPS. Rev 30B, Loss 42% YTD

So how is it that an amazing fundamental company like MU has lost 42% with a 7.75 EPS and 6 PE just getting rekt almost the same way as AMD which was overbought and overpriced. So why has MU been so volatile in decline? Doesn't it make you wonder? Like shouldn't MU only have lost 15% or so? The valuations are just so lopsided which is why so many people have lost big during this decline.

[CptTrips]

AMD 91B market cap. PE ratio 24. 2.36 EPS. Rev 20B Loss 60% YTD

MU 58B market cap. PE ratio 6.9. 7.75 EPS. Rev 30B, Loss 42% YTD

So how is it that an amazing fundamental company like MU has lost 42% with a 7.75 EPS and 6 PE just getting rekt almost the same way as AMD which was overbought and overpriced. So why has MU been so volatile in decline? Doesn't it make you wonder? Like shouldn't MU only have lost 15% or so? The valuations are just so lopsided which is why so many people have lost big during this decline.

Again (as explained in a previous thread), it doesn't matter what MU has done in the past.  The market doesn't care.  What matters now is future guidance.  Demand is dropping and Micron is going to have an over-supply sitting on their shelves.  That is value locked up in inventory and not returned to investors.  Likely significant price drops will be need to clear that excess stock.  That's less profits.  We are in a risk-off era now  Any company showing likely challenges in the next year are risk-off.  If there are better investments available, money will move out of MU and into something else.  The market doesn't owe MU any loyalty.  It's business.

Just because you lose money on a stock pick, doesn't mean there is some dark international conspiracy.  You just made a bad stock pick (for the near term).  So hold onto it.  It will eventually come back, but maybe not for a year or two.

However, Microns management produced weak guidance moving forward. According to the CEO Sanjay Mehrotra, Recently, the industry demand environment has weakened, and we are taking action to moderate our supply growth in fiscal 2023.

The Non-GAAP earnings are forecasted to be between $1.43 and $1.83 per share in the fiscal fourth quarter, which is lower than the conesus analyst estimate of $2.62 per share.

The company annouced that they will take "immediate action" to reduce supply growth trajectory. Micron has plans to use excess inventory this year to supply "part of the market demand next year." While the company stressed this is just expected to be a short-term downturn, investors are still upset.

https://www.yahoo.com/now/why-micron-stock-down-181858030.html#:~:text=of%20last%20year.-,Why%20Is%20Micron%20Stock%20Down%3F,supply%20growth%20in%20fiscal%202023

[Eagler]

You can't make $4 trillion a year and spend $6 trillion a year forever

It's worked for the most wealthy so far

Eagler