General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Eagler on April 06, 2025, 07:46:20 AM
Title: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: Eagler on April 06, 2025, 07:46:20 AM
Isn't the US tariffs going expedite this?
If we aren't the world's police, what's to keep the globe from switching its reserve currency from the dollar?
I think this can be discussed without breaking forum rules if we try..
Eagler
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: rabbidrabbit on April 06, 2025, 08:16:33 AM
It's a complicated conversation with lots of moving parts. A couple of big reasons why the dollar has no competition is liquidity and stability. To whatever degree transitions move away from the dollar it will be an incremental process based mostly on those two factors and confidence in credibility.
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: Busher on April 06, 2025, 11:45:50 AM
It's a complicated conversation with lots of moving parts. A couple of big reasons why the dollar has no competition is liquidity and stability. To whatever degree transitions move away from the dollar it will be an incremental process based mostly on those two factors and confidence in credibility.
Question is, what currancy could replace it ? Just reading the basic problem is lower interest benifits the consumer and interest short term loan on the national debit . High interestest rates bring in international investment. Low interest=weaker dollar. High interest=stronger dollar.
No expert here...but appears the heavy weights have a shell game in the market. Lots of money going to made when the market flips. Which it will..
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: Eagler on April 06, 2025, 05:59:13 PM
High interest favors savers, low interest favors spenders..
Flaky economy/market requires endless spending to sustain itself..screw the dollar
Eagler
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: rabbidrabbit on April 06, 2025, 06:39:33 PM
Question is, what currancy could replace it ? Just reading the basic problem is lower interest benifits the consumer and interest short term loan on the national debit . High interestest rates bring in international investment. Low interest=weaker dollar. High interest=stronger dollar.
No expert here...but appears the heavy weights have a shell game in the market. Lots of money going to made when the market flips. Which it will..
There is no currency that has anything near enough volume to be viable. If there is a move away from the dollar it would have to be gradual and there isn't anything even remotely viable as an option so far. BRICS is all trash and no one wants the renminbi either. Most of the narrative isn't driven by reality.
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: Animl-AW on April 06, 2025, 06:51:03 PM
I think one can discuss the affects of policy civilly without going off the deep end picking sides..
I guess some can't..
Eagler
If you're in the same tribe, sure. Today is not yesterday, when we cared less.
Since I've been back you've tried these no less then 30-40 times and even start a new one right after the last one was locked.
Ever see a policy/political thread end well? They always start decent, they never end the same way, ever. Policy itself sets sides. Cause and reactions of policy set sides, it all sets sides. You keep trying to normalize it in cloaking to slick wording. Cause and effect of a policy sets sides especially when erroneous information starts passing and the listener starts correcting them. Game over. Today both sides are NOT dealing with the same reality that can be discussed that way. Ya can't even agree on the reality. What worked 10 yrs ago can no longer work because of deep seated and hateful positions.
And no, 90% of the people cannot discuss these things and it not become political. This is why the old saying. Never discuss politics, income or sex in open circles, people walk away with changed opinions, not on the subject, on the speaker, ya lose friends. You're not going to beat human nature into your liking. <shrug> Civil went out the door when ya can't even agree on the same realities as a base point.
BTW, the dollar has lost value because of the current situation.
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: nopoop on April 06, 2025, 07:11:12 PM
"LOOK AT ME" has arrived not to discuss like everyone else, but to push for a lock.
Way to go "LOOK AT ME !!"
Golf clap...
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: Busher on April 06, 2025, 08:40:24 PM
"LOOK AT ME" has arrived not to discuss like everyone else, but to push for a lock.
Way to go "LOOK AT ME !!"
Golf clap...
Doesn’t take me to lock a thread. Obviously you’re referring to me. Watch and learn. Sooner ir later comments will come, a lock will follow. Not one has not been locked. Not one, looooong before my return. Burned out on the two face crap here
You do the work to bring more players. All yours BUDDY. Good luck
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: Eagler on April 07, 2025, 07:00:16 AM
BTW, the dollar has lost value because of the current situation.
Nothing like it will when they try to save the market and start slashing interest rates..
If we can't pay 5% on a 12 month cd we are toast..
Eagler
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: CptTrips on April 07, 2025, 05:49:51 PM
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: Eagler on April 07, 2025, 06:07:32 PM
2 years old...I listened to it then
Basically saying the dollar is king or else.. see Iraq and Libya for examples of what happens if you say no..
Guess that's one way to make friends and influence people to keep the dollar on top
I think one day the world will tire of financing our bloated credit card life style...especially if we can't keep value in the dollar but continue to devalue it instead
Eagler
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: CptTrips on April 07, 2025, 06:48:28 PM
The fundamental facts of global economics have not changed. The criteria for serving as a reserve currency has not changed. Why N. Vietnam was using US dollar during the height of the war with us. Using anything else, would lose them money or simply not have enough volume to make trade possible.
Countries don't use the US dollar because we force them. They use it for their own economic self-interest.
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: nopoop on April 07, 2025, 07:27:36 PM
Watch him daily. Sharp guy. Don't agree with "everything" he says but quite a bit.
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: CptTrips on April 07, 2025, 07:35:21 PM
Watch him daily. Sharp guy. Don't agree with "everything" he says but quite a bit.
I don't always agree with everything he says. But yes, he is a smart guy and I've learned a lot from him.
I had never given demographics their proper weight in understanding the historical\economic course of nations. Changed the way I think about a lot of things.
Europe, China, and Russia better hope he is full of it.
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: nopoop on April 07, 2025, 08:45:18 PM
If I remember correctly on that subject Japan has more people over 50 then under 50...
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: CptTrips on April 07, 2025, 09:08:02 PM
If I remember correctly on that subject Japan has more people over 50 then under 50...
The other big problem is their extreme toxic ethnocentricity.
That means they have no chance at pumping their demographics up by importing young workers from elsewhere. They mostly won't even allow other Asians to immigrate there. They have done a fantastic job holding back the tide with increasing technology, but that isn't a long term solution and has a diminishing return. Robots don't have babies. It's why they have never really recovered from the peak in the 1980s, and never will again. NO demographic growth, no economic growth.
Japan has chosen the long goodbye of demographic obsolescence.
And Russia and China are such shtholes countries, no one wants to immigrate there anyway.
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: Eagler on April 08, 2025, 07:05:33 AM
So the dollar is the best of the worst...backed up by a military we aren't afraid to impose to keep the status quo ..while we abuse it with low interest rates imposed to force most into the bloated market that cannot reset as everyone has their retirement in it..heard the market is predicting a 1.25 reduction in rates by years end..go dollar go!! lol
Got it!
Eagler
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: CptTrips on April 08, 2025, 08:43:20 AM
To say something is the best of the worst, implies there is something better.
"Worse" implies a comparison against a better choice.
Unless you can identify this "better" currency that exists today, your statement makes no logical sense.
What I assume you meant to say was, "despite it's imperfections, there simply is no existing, viable option that is better or else it would already be in use." Which is what Ziehan was trying to explain to your type.
Nothing ever created my men will be perfect. Our currency only has to be a little better than the next best choice for it to be the logical choice for rational actors to choose in their own economic self-interest. Unless you think North Vietnam was using the US dollar for trade during the height of the Vietnam War because they liked us.
Everything else you say is just anti-American fueled, Q-Anon fever-dream, internet conspiracy prattle.
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: CptTrips on April 08, 2025, 09:01:58 AM
Let us merely consult the Oracle:
Quote
Why can't we use the Euro as the world's reserve currency?
ChatGPT said: Great question — the idea of the euro replacing the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency sounds viable on paper, but there are several political, economic, and structural reasons why it hasn’t happened (and likely won’t anytime soon). Here’s a breakdown of why the euro isn’t taking that top spot:
🔹 1. Lack of Political Unity in the Eurozone The euro is shared by multiple countries, each with its own government, fiscal policy, and political priorities. Unlike the U.S., which has a single treasury, central bank, and political system, the EU is a patchwork. That lack of unified decision-making makes investors nervous — especially in a crisis.
Example: During the 2010–2012 Eurozone debt crisis (think Greece, Italy, Spain), the euro looked fragile. People wondered if the eurozone might fall apart. Not the kind of thing you want in a reserve currency.
🔹 2. Shallower Financial Markets Reserve currencies need very deep and liquid financial markets where investors can park trillions of dollars without causing volatility. The U.S. Treasury market is enormous and safe — by comparison, the eurozone bond markets are fragmented (each country issues its own bonds), and there's no true "eurobond" market.
🔹 3. The Euro Is Not Universally Trusted The euro is still relatively young (born in 1999) and has had a few credibility hiccups. A world reserve currency has to be seen as safe in any scenario. The EU’s challenges with cohesion and crisis response have made global investors a bit wary of relying on it as a primary store of value.
🔹 4. Inertia and Network Effects The dollar’s dominance is partly just momentum. Oil is priced in dollars, global trade is settled in dollars, and many international loans are issued in dollars. For the euro to overtake the dollar, it would require not just better features — but also convincing everyone else to switch. That’s a massive coordination problem.
🔹 5. Limited Global Adoption While the euro is used by many countries in Europe, it's not widely used outside of Europe for trade settlements or foreign reserves compared to the dollar. The U.S. has more global military, economic, and geopolitical influence, which reinforces dollar dominance.
🔹 TL;DR We can't (easily) use the euro as the world’s reserve currency because:
The eurozone lacks fiscal and political unity
Eurozone bond markets are fragmented
Trust in the euro isn’t absolute
The dollar has huge network effects
There's no real alternative — yet
And given demographic trends, that are already baked into the cake and can't be stopped at this point, the argument FOR the US Dollar as the Reserve Currency only get stronger for decades and decades to come. Frankly, into the foreseeable future.
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: AKIron on April 08, 2025, 10:33:26 AM
If you want to see a very long list google "european wars".
How about the best smelling turd in the toilet bowl?
That is all it takes.
So no, there is no identifiable, feasible alternative to replace the USD as the reserve currency. At least you'll certainly not live to see it. Maybe in 80-100 years from now.
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: Busher on April 08, 2025, 04:37:50 PM
So no, there is no identifiable, feasible alternative to replace the USD as the reserve currency. At least you'll certainly not live to see it. Maybe in 80-100 years from now.
You may be right but with the alienation of the free world by the imposition of broadly applied tariffs, there is no international motivation to continue with the US Dollar. It's worthy of note how rapidly internationally held US T-bills are being sold off.
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: CptTrips on April 08, 2025, 05:50:21 PM
You may be right but with the alienation of the free world by the imposition of broadly applied tariffs, there is no international motivation to continue with the US Dollar.
Well, I've been a Reaganite my whole adult life. So, I think you can guess where I fall on that issue.
However, I believe T-bills are being sold mostly to cover sudden unexpected margin calls by panicked investors blindsided by this nonsense.
I could be wrong.
I tell you what. When a replacement has been found and has begun to cover at least 30% of existing trade, I'll start taking those arguments more seriously. I am not impervious to real data.
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: Busher on April 08, 2025, 06:26:57 PM
I tell you what. When a replacement has been found and has begun to cover at least 30% of existing trade, I'll start taking those arguments more seriously. I am not impervious to real data.
Good point but "existing trade" will soon look radically different. Former trade allies are rapidly seeking new friends and markets.
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: CptTrips on April 08, 2025, 06:34:20 PM
Good point but "existing trade" will soon look radically different. Former trade allies are rapidly seeking new friends and markets.
Yet even N. Vietnam used the USD for trade during the height of the Vietnam war.
You can hate a country and still choose not to voluntarily lose money.
But if conditions change, my position will change. Like the Fed, I am data driven. ;)
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: fd ski on April 09, 2025, 12:27:58 AM
USD reserve currency status is also based on perceived USA government stability. It's T-Bills that are a "non-risk" benchmark. Day will come when Trump is some off hand remarks will float the idea of "we don't have to pay our debts". He cheated creditors in his personal dealings, he will consider it a "leverage" in his negotiations. That day will be beginning of the end of our currency as reserve currency of the world. Nothing will replace it in short term, but countries will have to diversify something that wasn't a risk up to this day. And it will cost us, a lot.
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: Eagler on April 09, 2025, 07:33:19 AM
You'd think if we don't play global cop anymore and make the EU spend money to defend itself their loyalty to us would weaken as their needs and expenses have changed..
On the other hand covid supply line interruptions show the need to manufacture in country..and pay higher prices for everything
After all it's all about greed and power..not so much loyalty..and keeping Joe six pack as confused and ignorant as possible
Eagler
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: DmonSlyr on April 09, 2025, 07:56:44 AM
You'd think if we don't play global cop anymore and make the EU spend money to defend itself their loyalty to us would weaken as their needs and expenses have changed..
On the other hand covid supply line interruptions show the need to manufacture in country..and pay higher prices for everything
After all it's all about greed and power..not so much loyalty..and keeping Joe six pack as confused and ignorant as possible
Eagler
Amazing how they'll support Chinese tariffs and Chinese expansionism over the country whose been supporting and helping them for them decades and this is what they do to us when we decide to true up trade for Americans? They'll regret that.
America is going to be stronger than ever. Our government will get more money than ever, and less spend on fraud too. And we are going to have investment flowing back into America. If Europe and Canada would rather benefit China's growth. Then they can go pound sand and find out how great communism is in a few years. Freaking prics
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: Busher on April 09, 2025, 09:38:58 AM
America is going to be stronger than ever. Our government will get more money than ever, and less spend on fraud too. And we are going to have investment flowing back into America. If Europe and Canada would rather benefit China's growth. Then they can go pound sand and find out how great communism is in a few years. Freaking prics
Can I quote you on this after the recession, job losses, and price increases are in full bloom?
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: CptTrips on April 09, 2025, 09:42:32 AM
Amazing how they'll support Chinese tariffs and Chinese expansionism over the country whose been supporting and helping them for them decades and this is what they do to us when we decide to true up trade for Americans? They'll regret that.
America is going to be stronger than ever. Our government will get more money than ever, and less spend on fraud too. And we are going to have investment flowing back into America. If Europe and Canada would rather benefit China's growth. Then they can go pound sand and find out how great communism is in a few years. Freaking prics
The trust in America us GONE. Without trust trade us very hard. It will be the opposite
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: DmonSlyr on April 09, 2025, 10:08:28 AM
America is going to be stronger than ever. Our government will get more money than ever, and less spend on fraud too. And we are going to have investment flowing back into America. If Europe and Canada would rather benefit China's growth. Then they can go pound sand and find out how great communism is in a few years. Freaking prics
Ayy there's the politics.
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: DmonSlyr on April 09, 2025, 10:16:14 AM
I merely here to keep the conversation away from false fear propaganda BS.
And BTW, I think its absolutely despicable the way our "allies" are handling this situation. They think they can bully Americans with our tax money while benefiting China and their trade and their tarifs. Completely irrational clowns defending the communist government's. How pathetic and sad.
Yall absolutely do NOT care about workers rights and regulations and fair working standards. I never want to hear that crap again from liberals.
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: CptTrips on April 09, 2025, 10:36:48 AM
They think they can bully Americans with our tax money while benefiting China and their trade and their tarifs.
Your allies are bullying you?
I guess I should have said former allies. The USA has spent generations developing friendships and allies around the globe. And while people of knowledge have attempted to reveal the error of recent actions, the policy of one man has broken that trust and faith in America. If that trust can ever be rebuilt...who knows.
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: AKIron on April 09, 2025, 10:46:37 AM
I don't get it. It's okay for one country to levy tariffs on another but not okay for that country to respond in kind? I just don't understand how some people think.
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: CptTrips on April 09, 2025, 10:59:41 AM
I don't get it. It's okay for one country to levy tariffs on another but not okay for that country to respond in kind? I just don't understand how some people think.
First of all, that sounds good, even feels good. But doesn't always make sense.
Do these uninhabited islands have tariffs on us? Commie penguins?
If you have a small impoverished country where people live in grass huts and subsidy grow bananas and sell them to the US, are they supposed to be buying 787 Dreamliners and f-35's?
Should these tariffs go through Congressional debate and vote?
Have all these trade disputes been properly worked through the WTO dispute process as we agreed to do by treaty?
Have all these tariffs been limited to exactly what they have against us? Honest answers only please.
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: nopoop on April 09, 2025, 11:04:31 AM
Interesting quote from Kevin o'leary this am. Thoughts ?
104% tariffs on China are not enough. I'm advocating 400%. I do business with China. They don't play by the rules. They've been in the WTO for decades. They have never abided by any of the rules they agreed to when they came in for decades. They cheat, they steal, they steal IP. I can't litigate in their courts. They take product, technology, they steal it, they manufacture it and sell it back here.
Nobody has taken on China yet, not the Europeans, no administration for decades. As someone who actually does business there, I've had enough. I speak for millions of Americans who have IP that have been stolen by the Chinese. 400% tariffs tomorrow morning!
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: CptTrips on April 09, 2025, 11:10:05 AM
Interesting quote from Kevin o'leary this am. Thoughts ?
104% tariffs on China are not enough. I'm advocating 400%. I do business with China. They don't play by the rules. They've been in the WTO for decades. They have never abided by any of the rules they agreed to when they came in for decades. They cheat, they steal, they steal IP. I can't litigate in their courts. They take product, technology, they steal it, they manufacture it and sell it back here.
Nobody has taken on China yet, not the Europeans, no administration for decades. As someone who actually does business there, I've had enough. I speak for millions of Americans who have IP that have been stolen by the Chinese. 400% tariffs tomorrow morning!
I have little argument on China. They are obvious bad actors.
I place Canada in a different category.
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: CptTrips on April 09, 2025, 11:31:45 AM
A grown man always weighs what his "rights" are vs what his interests are.
Quote
"One may serve their emotions, or serve their interests. Seldom can one serve both masters at one time." - Gaius Julius Caesar
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: AKIron on April 09, 2025, 11:33:12 AM
First of all, that sounds good, even feels good. But doesn't always make sense.
Do these uninhabited islands have tariffs on us? Commie penguins?
If you have a small impoverished country where people live in grass huts and subsidy grow bananas and sell them to the US, are they supposed to be buying 787 Dreamliners and f-35's?
Should these tariffs go through Congressional debate and vote?
Have all these trade disputes been properly worked through the WTO dispute process as we agreed to do by treaty?
Have all these tariffs been limited to exactly what they have against us? Honest answers only please.
You're talking about trade imbalance. I'm just talking tariffs. You don't want our products, fine. You put an import tax on our products turnabout is fair play.
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: CptTrips on April 09, 2025, 11:41:52 AM
You're talking about trade imbalance. I'm just talking tariffs. You don't want our products, fine. You put an import tax on our products turnabout is fair play.
Well, Trump isn't. He sees any trade imbalance regardless of reason as unfair. It is an 8th grader's understanding of economics. Maybe we should make you President instead. ;)
But let me amend for you:
Do these uninhabited islands have tariffs on us? Commie penguins?
Should these tariffs go through Congressional debate and vote?
Have all these trade disputes been properly worked through the WTO dispute process as we agreed to do by treaty?
Have all these tariffs been limited to exactly what they have against us? Honest answers only please.
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: AKIron on April 09, 2025, 11:45:07 AM
Of course every nation should have it's own best interest at heart. Anyone who tells you differently is trying to sell you something. I'm not saying we should play "fair". I'm simply saying that outrage over matching another's tariff is misguided, at best.
And oh yeah, since when have those in our government followed the "rules"?
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: CptTrips on April 09, 2025, 11:50:41 AM
Of course every nation should have it's own best interest at heart. Anyone who tells you differently is trying to sell you something. I'm not saying we should play "fair". I'm simply saying that outrage over matching another's tariff is misguided, at best.
And oh yeah, since when have those in our government followed the "rules"?
Are all these tariffs only limited to match those that were already on us?
(Retaliatory tariffs aside.)
If not, are we not now the tariff aggressors?
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: AKIron on April 09, 2025, 12:02:19 PM
My opinion is that we use tariffs to benefit us in both the short and long term. Whatever provides the most benefit in terms buying power and employment. My point made though is there should be no crying when we simply match what others are doing to us.
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: Busher on April 09, 2025, 12:05:28 PM
Are all these tariffs only limited to match those that were already on us?
(Retaliatory tariffs aside.)
If not, are we not now the tariff aggressors?
This is exactly the point. I have nothing negative to say about tariffs when used to induce productive negotiations on international trade. Using them as a club benefits no one including the aggressor.
One more point... a trade imbalance is in no way unfair. You have trade imbalance with your barber... you give him dollars for a product; what does he buy from you?
Title: Re: BRICS (economic not political)
Post by: CptTrips on April 09, 2025, 12:12:01 PM
My opinion is that we use tariffs to benefit us in both the short and long term. Whatever provides the most benefit in terms buying power and employment.
Do you think these Trump tariffs are going to bring us power and employment?