Seems as good of time as any for China to make a move..
Demographically and financially, like Russian's grab for the old Soviet defensive perimeter; it's now or never.
Sometime between now and 2027, But if we are in the middle of a war defending NATO against Russia, and fighting a complete financial collapse at the same time, I'd think that only can accelerate the time table.
Are we betting? I'd say in the midst of the coming mid-terms.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: RUSH1 on May 31, 2025, 06:34:47 PM
I don't think American lives will be in question. American/global will is what I worry about.
China has at least a 70% dependence on the U.S. and its allies for more than 400 items, ranging from luxury goods to raw materials needed for Chinese industries, a new analysis of trade data has found.
WSJ
I believe I read that America, alone, accounts for 25% of China's economy. Never mind China's reliance on slave labor, their human rights record, or the fact that they are a communist adversary ... see why distancing ourselves from them economically, no matter how hard it is short term, makes sense?
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: Eagler on May 31, 2025, 06:37:21 PM
I expect we will move to defend Taiwan if China invades. I think the shooting will be limited to there.
I think that is wishful thinking..
I'd think they have a covid up their sleeve that'll make 2020 look like a mild cold to start..
Would not surprise me if it isn't released 1st just to stir us up internally - as if we need help with that..
Eagler
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: Brooke on May 31, 2025, 06:42:57 PM
Without Taiwan, say goodbye to many US products with semiconductors in them (like cars, electronic equipment, airplanes, missiles). I'd factor that into what would happen.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: RUSH1 on May 31, 2025, 06:54:08 PM
Without Taiwan, say goodbye to many US products with semiconductors in them (like cars, electronic equipment, airplanes, missiles). I'd factor that into what would happen.
Good point. Never should have gotten to this point and we're all to blame.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: CptTrips on May 31, 2025, 06:58:38 PM
Without Taiwan, say goodbye to many US products with semiconductors in them (like cars, electronic equipment, airplanes, missiles). I'd factor that into what would happen.
The super super high end stuff is still made here.
China current can make the low end stuff like for smart toasters and refrigerators. But only with the equipment they purchase from the West.
All the high and mid range stuff can only be fabricated in Taiwan I believe (not my area of expertise).
They don't even have to invade. I wouldn't. Not worth the investment. Instead you show you are wiling to simple reach and destroy that capacity if you don't get your way. OR if you want to invade, any interference will result it that capability destroyed.
Quote
"He who can destroy a thing, has the real control of it." - Muad-Dib
That is not something the West can replace immediately. Not just the equipment but the highly trained and skilled workforce. Taiwan has spent decades cultivating that capability and up-training it's workforce exactly for that industry. It would take up 5-10 years to friend-shore that now if they toast Taiwan.
My guess is we would be very angry, and fall back the the Philippines defensive line.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: AKIron on May 31, 2025, 10:43:57 PM
We have powerful forces in quick striking distance of Taiwan. Taiwan may be rendered useless to us and China but I don't believe China wants to face our full wrath.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: RUSH1 on May 31, 2025, 10:56:04 PM
We have powerful forces in quick striking distance of Taiwan. Taiwan may be rendered useless to us and China but I don't believe China wants to face our full wrath.
Our full wrath should/is being carried out economically.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: Busher on May 31, 2025, 10:58:17 PM
very confused...
“I had a very strong relationship with him. He was actually a really good, I don’t want to say friend - I don’t want to act foolish, ‘he was my friend’ - but I got along with him great.”
Not my words but certainly doesn't like a prequel to conflict.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: CptTrips on May 31, 2025, 11:00:11 PM
We have powerful forces in quick striking distance of Taiwan. Taiwan may be rendered useless to us and China but I don't believe China wants to face our full wrath.
Unless we are so deep in other fires that the public won't tolerate more.
There is only so much drama and complexity simultaneously they will tolerate.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: RUSH1 on May 31, 2025, 11:52:49 PM
“I had a very strong relationship with him. He was actually a really good, I don’t want to say friend - I don’t want to act foolish, ‘he was my friend’ - but I got along with him great.”
Not my words but certainly doesn't like a prequel to conflict.
Weak.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: icepac on June 01, 2025, 05:35:38 AM
If china sends a few of the thousands of military age men who entered our country illegally to shoot up a bunch of power sub-stations at the same moment, the US will be busy taking care of themselves.
A big hurricane event like last year would be when to cause the blackout.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: AKIron on June 01, 2025, 08:34:49 AM
We have a large military presence about 400 miles away on Okinawa. Other forces not a lot farther. And of course mobile fleets. If China attacks Taiwan and limits their offensive to that we'll still respond but likely only to the forces there. If China attacks Okinawa all bets are off.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: AKIron on June 01, 2025, 08:52:14 AM
AI Overview
"There are approximately 25,000 U.S. family members residing in Okinawa, along with 1,400 Department of Defense civilians and 700 DoD Dependents Schools teachers and staff. Additionally, nearly 30,000 active-duty military personnel from all four branches of the armed forces are stationed on the island."
Killing US civilians would almost certainly incite a demand for severe retaliation. China has to know this. They don't want a full scale war.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: Eviscerate on June 01, 2025, 08:58:25 AM
Nobody mentioned anything about Okinawa besides you. Why are you trying to create a story lol
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: AKIron on June 01, 2025, 09:04:09 AM
Nobody mentioned anything about Okinawa besides you. Why are you trying to create a story lol
You think an attack on Taiwan won't affect our nearest military presence? Really?
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: AKIron on June 01, 2025, 09:16:50 AM
China knows we have forces nearby capable of defeating their invasion of Taiwan. They don't know if we will act to defend Taiwan. If they risk it and we do act they will either have to back down or attack our nearby staging point. If they attack Okinawa the gloves come off.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: AKIron on June 01, 2025, 09:29:59 AM
We are ramping up our semiconductor plants which will eventually make Taiwan less relevant to us. If China is smart they'll wait until we no longer need Taiwan before invading.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: CptTrips on June 01, 2025, 10:05:48 AM
We are ramping up our semiconductor plants which will eventually make Taiwan less relevant to us. If China is smart they'll wait until we no longer need Taiwan before invading.
Demographically and financially they can't wait the 5-10 years it would take up to get ramped up enough to not care about Taiwan.
I think if they attack in the midst of the coming mid-term when we are maximally distracted and divided, at which time we will also be crotch deep in a economic malaise, facing hard decision on an increasingly hot war in Europe that threatens NATO. I think they could pull it off.
We won't go all in for Taiwan. They won't be dumb enough to hit Japan-Korea defensive line in the north or the Philippines defensive line in the south and force our hand.
We will protest loudly, make some token show of force and then fall back to our Japan-Korea-Philippine-Australia defensive perimeter.
We will impose sanctions they will cut off chip availability and we won't be ready to replace it yet. Checkmate.
Negotiations will then be had, and the name Taiwan will fade from History.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: Eviscerate on June 01, 2025, 10:15:43 AM
You think an attack on Taiwan won't affect our nearest military presence? Really?
Where did I say that? Don't believe I did. Nobody in this thread mentioned Okinawa until you did. Just wondering why you're trying to create something from nothing, is all.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: AKIron on June 01, 2025, 10:29:56 AM
Where did I say that? Don't believe I did. Nobody in this thread mentioned Okinawa until you did. Just wondering why you're trying to create something from nothing, is all.
I explained how I think an invasion of Taiwan will likely go down. What was your input?
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: AKIron on June 01, 2025, 10:32:53 AM
Demographically and financially they can't wait the 5-10 years it would take up to get ramped up enough to not care about Taiwan.
I think if they attack in the midst of the coming mid-term when we are maximally distracted and divided, at which time we will also be crotch deep in a economic malaise, facing hard decision on an increasingly hot war in Europe that threatens NATO. I think they could pull it off.
We won't go all in for Taiwan. They won't be dumb enough to hit Japan-Korea defensive line in the north or the Philippines defensive line in the south and force our hand.
We will protest loudly, make some token show of force and then fall back to our Japan-Korea-Philippine-Australia defensive perimeter.
We will impose sanctions they will cut off chip availability and we won't be ready to replace it yet. Checkmate.
Negotiations will then be had, and the name Taiwan will fade from History.
I think China will be counting on this scenario. If we do rise to Taiwan's defense I think it likely China will back down for the reasons I stated. They will lose an escalation. Of course we know they know we know.....
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: CptTrips on June 01, 2025, 10:35:25 AM
I think China will be counting on this scenario. If we do rise to Taiwan's defense I think it likely China will back down for the reasons I stated. They will lose an escalation. Of course we know they know we know.....
I agree if they see us committing all in, they will back down.
I do not believe we will.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: Eagler on June 01, 2025, 12:13:47 PM
I don't think China has to invade Taiwan to bring it under its control...see Ukraine as an example of how war - an invasion - goes these days..endless civilian destruction with the occasional military target thrown in for effect..
I see 10's of 1000's of Chinese AI drones doing the heavy lifting...
Depending on our economic shape, war might be exactly what our fearless leaders believe should/has to happen..throw in a crazy ego or 3 and everything is possible..
Interesting times..
Eagler
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: hazmatt on June 01, 2025, 01:15:41 PM
I don't think China has to invade Taiwan to bring it under its control...see Ukraine as an example of how war - an invasion - goes these days..endless civilian destruction with the occasional military target thrown in for effect..
I see 10's of 1000's of Chinese AI drones doing the heavy lifting...
Depending on our economic shape, war might be exactly what our fearless leaders believe should/has to happen..throw in a crazy ego or 3 and everything is possible..
Interesting times..
Eagler
If they just enforced a good old fashion blockade, I'm pretty sure Taiwan wouldn't last long.
A blockade enforced by drones would be a first.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: AKIron on June 01, 2025, 01:24:31 PM
Speaking of drones, Ukraine pulled a Hezbollah pager move.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: Eagler on June 01, 2025, 06:35:47 PM
Just wondering if such an attack on Dulles or LaGuardia Airport during holiday season wouldn't have better results than a few dozen military aircraft...
Eagler
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: AKIron on June 01, 2025, 06:43:00 PM
Attacking a bunch of civilian airliners at the gates filled with people is a good way to get yourself nuked.
No more of this 20 years trying to clear out the extremists bs. We learned our lesson. I hope.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: hazmatt on June 01, 2025, 06:54:12 PM
Just wondering if such an attack on Dulles or LaGuardia Airport during holiday season wouldn't have better results than a few dozen military aircraft...
Eagler
They assured us that all those military age men coming across the boarder were nothing to worry about. :)
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: Eagler on June 01, 2025, 07:03:30 PM
Good point. Never should have gotten to this point and we're all to blame.
We are all to blame? How is it my fault? Genuinely intrigued how you can trace it to me. Because I am an American consumer that is forced to buy stuff that is made in Taiwan because there is no other option within a reasonable price range for people in my social class?
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: Eagler on June 02, 2025, 06:45:40 AM
Drone attack if you really want to piss someone off. Missiles with EMP warheads launched from freighters off our coasts to really make it hurt.
Any reason to think China's buddy wouldn't pitch in a couple dozen of these to keep things interesting?
They only have to ignite the internal discontent and we will do the rest..
Eagler
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: AKIron on June 02, 2025, 09:20:39 AM
Conflict spurs technology advancement like nothing else. Must be that drive to survive.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: Brooke on June 02, 2025, 12:41:23 PM
2 nm and upcoming 1.6 nm are Taiwan only. 3 and 4 nm are mostly made in Taiwan. US production of 4 nm won't be up and running until 2030 assuming no schedule overruns.
TSMC makes 60% of world's semiconductors and 90% of the high-end semiconductors (3 nm and lower).
-- GM, Ford, Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Toyota, Tesla, BMW, Mercedes, Audi, etc. use TSCM chips for sensors, cpus, control systems, env. control). -- Boeing, Airbus, Embraer, Bombardier, etc. use lots of TSMC semiconductors. -- US military radar, missile guidance, ecm, tanks, ships, drones, satellites, control systems, comms systems, etc. use lots of TSMC chips. -- Apple, nVidia, AMD, Qualcomm, Android phones, toasters, microwaves, thermostats, medical equipment, etc. use TSMC chips.
If TSMC became unavailable, those products would become mostly unavailable for years.
If Taiwan were attacked by China, I think it likely all of TSMC's semiconductor processing would be destroyed -- by China if it failed taking the island, and by the US if China was taking the island.
This is one reason (among others) why the current administration is using techniques to push TSMC to manufacture in the US and why it was so gigantically stupid to not do this previously.
It is also gigantically stupid for the US not to use a few $billion to solve the EMP-vulnerability problem (which right now is such that we are 100% vulnerable to anyone with a couple nukes launched from container ships to destroy everything electrical in the US -- pumps, cars, trains, airplanes, tractors, motorcycles, electric motors, gasoline motors, diesel motors, water systems, waste systems, transport systems, and thus kill 90+% of US citizens as they run out of water and food starting in about 3 days of the event). But that's another discussion of the incompetence and idiocy of our government.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: Shuffler on June 02, 2025, 12:50:16 PM
Will all Chinese back attacking Taiwan?
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: AKIron on June 02, 2025, 12:55:21 PM
Like the US whenever it is doing something, some large % would and some large % wouldn't. Is it 50/50? 60/40? 70/30? Don't know, but I'd guess the large majority of Chinese people do think Taiwan is rightfully part of China.
Also, in China, the government does what it wants, unless there is a substantial fear of large-scale revolt. China government seemed to fear large-scale revolt if it didn't lighten up on its socialism knob, allowing people to own some businesses and keep some profit. But they don't seem to fear annihilating whole towns, forcibly relocating population, putting people into camps, stealing people's money, taking way rights to transportation, enforcing "social credit", killing this or that businessman or politician for transgressing some narrative, using secret police to put pressure on citizens, etc.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: DmonSlyr on June 02, 2025, 02:39:23 PM
If China invades or 'occupies' Taiwan, they would be incredibly stupid to do so under the current administration. If it were me, if they even touched Taiwan, there would be a suprised dam failure collapse and GG to what ever they think they'd gain in Taiwan. Further, all their American owned land would be seized the next day and Id encourage every other country to do so. They will not be able to take over NVDA and TSM so it would be pointless IMO.
China is a house of cards. Remember, they are compromised by economic monetary manipulation. They cannot afford to cut margins anymore considering they are already walking a tight rope.
The UN either needs to grow some balls, or they will inherently feel the wrath. The sell out Olympic committee already bowed down by having it called "Chinese Taipai". That should be all they get. You notice Russia is essentially acting the same way towards Ukraine, and the UN is already dealing with that wrath. I hope for the same amount of outrage from the left if China makes a move. I doubt you will see it though since the UN,WHO, and WEF, is already compromised by China already anyway using their manipulation. The "world" would be very wise to bulk up against that power.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: RUSH1 on June 02, 2025, 04:35:08 PM
If China invades or 'occupies' Taiwan, they would be incredibly stupid to do so under the current administration. If it were me, if they even touched Taiwan, there would be a suprised dam failure collapse and GG to what ever they think they'd gain in Taiwan. Further, all their American owned land would be seized the next day and Id encourage every other country to do so. They will not be able to take over NVDA and TSM so it would be pointless IMO.
China is a house of cards. Remember, they are compromised by economic monetary manipulation. They cannot afford to cut margins anymore considering they are already walking a tight rope.
The UN either needs to grow some balls, or they will inherently feel the wrath. The sell out Olympic committee already bowed down by having it called "Chinese Taipai". That should be all they get. You notice Russia is essentially acting the same way towards Ukraine, and the UN is already dealing with that wrath. I hope for the same amount of outrage from the left if China makes a move. I doubt you will see it though since the UN,WHO, and WEF, is already compromised by China already anyway using their manipulation. The "world" would be very wise to bulk up against that power.
I agree, but a most of the west including a lot of Americans love them some China.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: Busher on June 02, 2025, 04:41:36 PM
Most of these posts assume that the leader's of China and Russia care about the ongoing health of their population or about their economy.
The losses Russia suffered in WW2 and are suffering now in Ukraine are examples of their military position.
The 1976 RCA Project, one of the first significant policy shifts, facilitated critical technology transfer from the U.S., which led to Taiwan's first IC plant and laid the groundwork for technological advancement. In other words the technology left the USA with full endorcement but now the discussion is about spending lives to cover this mistake?
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: CptTrips on June 02, 2025, 05:29:20 PM
Most of these posts assume that the leader's of China and Russia care about the ongoing health of their population or about their economy.
The losses Russia suffered in WW2 and are suffering now in Ukraine are examples of their military position.
The 1976 RCA Project, one of the first significant policy shifts, facilitated critical technology transfer from the U.S., which led to Taiwan's first IC plant and laid the groundwork for technological advancement. In other words the technology left the USA with full endorcement but now the discussion is about spending lives to cover this mistake?
I agree, but unless you have a time machine, that is no longer the question. That is all shoulda, woulda, coulda at this point.
At this point: What would you sacrifice to keep from living in a world where the Chinese are sole arbiters of who gets to have a chip for the next 5-10 years?
It would be like having the boot of a silicone OPEC on our throat. Is that acceptable? For most American's probably yes. That is why I don't think we will go all in to defend them.
I don't know the answer, but I don't like that idea either.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: Busher on June 02, 2025, 07:43:46 PM
I agree, but unless you have a time machine, that is no longer the question. That is all shoulda, woulda, coulda at this point.
At this point: What would you sacrifice to keep from living in a world where the Chinese are sole arbiters of who gets to have a chip for the next 5-10 years?
It would be like having the boot of a silicone OPEC on our throat. Is that acceptable? For most American's probably yes. That is why I don't think we will go all in to defend them.
I don't know the answer, but I don't like that idea either.
I know - but God knows how tired one gets of watching the so-called PTB's (powers that be) compounding one mistake with another.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: CptTrips on June 02, 2025, 08:15:16 PM
I know - but God knows how tired one gets of watching the so-called PTB's (powers that be) compounding one mistake with another.
I'm a big fan of not doing dumb stuff.
This one is going to be a real sticky booger and I don't care who is in power.
Want to know my vision of the future?
We won't go all in for Taiwan. They know that. Public won't go for it. Americans dying for Asians? You think that will fly right now? That's just a bad position to try and defend. Too close to their shores. Too easy to bring the entire power of the landmass up to the coast to project across the water. Sadly Taiwan will have to face occupation.
Still we can't just shrug it off without burning our alliance reputation on the spot for generations. That is a cost that sadly I don't think most of the public will appreciate.
My guess is we'd feel compelled to put up at least half a fight to save face. That's the worst of all. After a brief and pointless sacrifice of life, we'd fall back to our defensive perimeter (Japan, Korea, Philippines , Australia). Then the reckoning. A complete and total blockage of the Chinese landmass. Nothing goes in or comes out. Not goods. Not food. Not medicine, not fuel, not fertilizers, not farm equipment, nor any petroleum or raw materials. Any Chinese vessel approaching the blockade line is sunk by stand off missiles without further warnings.
China has no blue-water navy and all those allies have missiles that can complete bottle up those sea lanes they dominate. Within a year the Chinese will be in the stone age.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: AKIron on June 02, 2025, 09:35:57 PM
You know why Japan attacked Pearl Harbor right? Force China into a corner and....
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: CptTrips on June 02, 2025, 09:40:53 PM
You know why Japan attacked Pearl Harbor right? Force China into a corner and....
Shrug, it's better than trying to fight them on the beaches on Taiwan.
It's already war at that point. They've already invaded. It's already hot in this scenario.
This would be like the sub blockade of England, or our annihilation of the Japanese merchant fleet to starve them.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: AKIron on June 03, 2025, 10:10:46 AM
What would China do if we had them in a strangle hold intending to destroy them? I think they'd do anything in their power to stop that, including nukes. I think they already conducted a biological attack against us.
Title: Re: Taiwan
Post by: CptTrips on June 03, 2025, 10:24:21 AM
What would China do if we had them in a strangle hold intending to destroy them? I think they'd do anything in their power to stop that, including nukes. I think they already conducted a biological attack against us.
The intent would be to get them to negotiate a withdrawal of their invasion force. That's all it would take to go back to business as usual.
They can choose business or nuclear annihilation.
I mean what is the alternative? To allow China, Russia, and Iran to to invade neighbors and allies, and grab global resources across the oceans and if any one tries to stop them they threaten to rattle their nukes and we just give up and say OK you win?
At what point does that stop giving them a blank check. Remind them we have nukes too and our are better.