General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: CptTrips on April 01, 2020, 07:09:19 PM
Title: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: CptTrips on April 01, 2020, 07:09:19 PM
In reference: https://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/index.php/topic,399049.0.html (https://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/index.php/topic,399049.0.html)
Let's try again. Too much important information being share to let the political BS silence the conversation.
We broke 1000 deaths in a single day.
And we are not even anywhere close to the peak.
The next battle front is going to be the community production of expedient PPE.
I purchase materials and am having shipped to my Mom who is going to teach my niece how to sew and they are going to make masks for our family members. After we are covered, if they still are interested, I told them I would buy them more and they can make masks for donation to the local hospital down the road.
A cottage industry of homemade masks are going to be the Victory Gardens of this war.
Even Homemade mask help a lot more than nothing. https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/diy-homemade-mask-protect-virus-coronavirus/ (https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/diy-homemade-mask-protect-virus-coronavirus/)
Even common material like cleaned t-shirts are surprisingly effective: https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/best-materials-make-diy-face-mask-virus/ (https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/best-materials-make-diy-face-mask-virus/)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: bustr on April 01, 2020, 08:50:59 PM
Interesting thing about statistics.
USA and Japan.
USA Pop: 303million Cases: 229,873 Deaths: 5,824 Largest City, New York, Pop: 8.5million. Deaths: 2,219
Japan Pop: 126,476,461 Cases: 2,590 Deaths: 57 Largest City, Tokyo, Pop: 13.9million. Deaths: 56. One death on Hokkaido island.
Japan is doing pretty much what the USA is doing by asking their people to comply and Japan is a culture of compliance to get along. But, they are doing one thing we mostly don't here in the USA. They wear masks when they go into public at all times during this event.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: FLS on April 01, 2020, 09:12:59 PM
All the countries that wear masks did better than average. If we had masks they'd tell us to wear them instead of saying they only help medical staff. I agree they get priority but we should never have been short.
Something like 40% of infected have no symptoms and wearing masks reduce spreading the virus that they don't know they have.
Wearing masks also reduces your chance of catching the virus even if you don't wear it properly.
We had a national strategic stockpile of masks that was depleted in 2009 and never restocked. I look forward to the CDC getting a thorough house cleaning when this is over.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: Busher on April 01, 2020, 09:29:55 PM
Japan is doing pretty much what the USA is doing by asking their people to comply and Japan is a culture of compliance to get along. But, they are doing one thing we mostly don't here in the USA. They wear masks when they go into public at all times during this event.
Considering the similarity in population density between New York and Tokyo, it would seem that when authorities tell people to practice social distancing, the Japanese listen slightly better. And as to masks, we don't seem to want to even fashion a rudimentary mask from home items.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: FLS on April 01, 2020, 09:59:56 PM
Busher people have been making masks since the shortage was announced.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: CptTrips on April 01, 2020, 10:44:44 PM
Using vacuum bag HEPA filter:
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: DmonSlyr on April 02, 2020, 08:18:57 AM
Well, yaknow, he corrects he who must not be corrected.
People don't like hearing bad news and the news is going to get a lot worse for a while. Attacking the messenger gives them some sense of control, and a distraction from having to face what they don't want to face.
And the pain hasn't even really started yet.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: DmonSlyr on April 02, 2020, 11:03:26 AM
I'm tired of hearing it will get worse when Hydroxyclorquine is proven over and over again to be effective. This doctor was very serious that these drugs are working. We will have documented evidence by next week. This will save thousands and prevent 100K deaths. DR. Steven Smith made a bold statement on live TV. I don't think he'd do that if he wasnt sure.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: guncrasher on April 02, 2020, 11:18:51 AM
I'm tired of hearing it will get worse when Hydroxyclorquine is proven over and over again to be effective. This doctor was very serious that these drugs are working. We will have documented evidence by next week. This will save thousands and prevent 100K deaths. DR. Steven Smith made a bold statement on live TV. I don't think he'd do that if he wasnt sure.
it hasn't been proven, don't you think if it was doctors would pass pills around as if it was candy?
semp
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: Arlo on April 02, 2020, 11:19:57 AM
Should we put that up there with your prediction that there would be less than 100 deaths total from CoVid19, and the whole thing would be over by the end of March?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: DmonSlyr on April 02, 2020, 11:45:12 AM
Should we put that up there with your prediction that there would be less than 100 deaths total from CoVid19, and the whole thing would be over by the end of March?
Funny how you trust scientist and doctors until they go against your dreadful model narratives.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: CptTrips on April 02, 2020, 11:48:49 AM
My prediction is still closer than your models. :rofl
So, you are admitting you made the prediction that there would be less than 100 deaths total from CoVid19, and the whole thing would be over by the end of March?
You are admitting that, right?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: DmonSlyr on April 02, 2020, 11:59:50 AM
So, you are admitting you made the prediction that there would be less than 100 deaths total from CoVid19, and the whole thing would be over by the end of March?
You are admitting that, right?
Yeah I made the prediction when the cases were still in China. Then all of the sudden cases popped up in a nursing home. Then all of the sudden cases popped up in New York. Sure does make me wonder...
Someone is lying about how this spread thru the US.
Someone is lying about why California doesnt have as many cases as New York. Given China and Californias connections.
I dont trust that all of these deaths are directly due to Corona.
We dont know how many died solely jusy from Corona without any preexisting conditions. My guess is that is maybe closer to 100. The majority of deaths are people who are already in the hospital who were being treated for other cases. Thousands die in the US every day, it's a slippery slope. I know the MSM is doing this to push a narrative to destroy the American economy. It's that simple.
Like I said, funny how the party of science doesnt even trust their own scientist to be able to defeat the virus before it kills 100ks. Sure does make you wonder. Thought you guys would have more faith in your scientist.
And it sure is funny how the bus and public transit is still in motion in Oregon...
First they say 3.3 million files for unemployment. Now its 6.6 a week later. LoL. How can I even take it seriously with Masonic #s being used in every freaking report.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: CptTrips on April 02, 2020, 12:09:34 PM
Someone is lying about how this spread thru the US.
You know DmonSlyr, if you would have just freely admitted you were wrong without feeling the need to cover your tracks with wild, irrational conspiracy theories, then no one would have mentioned it a second time.
Being wrong about something isn't the problem. You man-up, grow a pair, admit it and move on. I was wrong to underestimate the utility of even simple cotton face masks. A man just admits it once it becomes obvious that he has been wrong. A boy twists and deflects and blames vast unseen conspiracies for his error. Grow up. Stop acting like a boy.
Because in the end, you don't fool anyone with your deflection and attempts at misdirection. They're just laughing at you. More than usual.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: guncrasher on April 02, 2020, 12:10:49 PM
violator, so you say your prediction is right at 100. but then you say the virus will kill 100k.
semp
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: Arlo on April 02, 2020, 12:20:00 PM
Funny how you trust scientist and doctors until they go against your dreadful model narratives.
"Projection is the process of displacing one’s feelings onto a different person, animal, or object. The term is most commonly used to describe defensive projection—attributing one’s own unacceptable urges to another."
You know DmonSlyr, if you would have just freely admitted you were wrong without feeling the need to cover your tracks with wild, irrational conspiracy theories, then no one would have mentioned it a second time.
Being wrong about something isn't the problem. You man-up, grow a pair, admit it and move on. I was wrong to underestimate the utility of even simple cotton face masks. A man just admits it once it becomes obvious that he has been wrong. A boy, twists and deflects and blames vast unseen conspiracies for his error. Grow up. Stop acting like a boy.
Because in the end, you don't fool anyone with your deflection and attempts at misdirection. They're just laughing at you. More than usual.
You are the conspiracy theorist with your conspiracy models.
"Projection is the process of displacing one’s feelings onto a different person, animal, or object. The term is most commonly used to describe defensive projection—attributing one’s own unacceptable urges to another."
You are the conspiracy theorist with your conspiracy models.
Some weak, damaged little boys will never grow up.
But now that March is over, and I got to see in writing a confession beaten out of him, DmonSlyr serves no other purpose and can be put back on ignore where he belongs. I'm finished with him now.
Buh bye. Enjoy your 4Chan Peter Pan eternal childhood.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: DmonSlyr on April 02, 2020, 12:51:44 PM
Some weak, damaged little boys will never grow up.
But now that March is over, and I got to see in writing a confession beaten out of him, DmonSlyr serves no other purpose and can be put back on ignore where he belongs. I'm finished with him now.
Buh bye. Enjoy your 4Chan Peter Pan eternal childhood.
Wtf is wrong with you people...
I wont allow you and the trolls to continue to spread fear without rebuttal from actual scientist and doctors.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: Arlo on April 02, 2020, 01:03:28 PM
I wont allow you and the trolls to continue to spread fear without rebuttal from actual scientist and doctors.
You don't have actual respect for scientists or doctors, in general. You parse and pick and look for specific examples to support your extreme views (even to the point of misunderstanding what the claim may be). What's 'wrong' with 'us people' is that we're not your wacko support group and won't buy into your delusions.
Testing for the virus does not save lives (excepting that isolating care workers can confirm if they actually have it or not...…..and if not return to work)
Testing for antibodies only shows those that are "cured".......these folk can return to normal lives. A country that establishes its "cured" population quickly minimises the financial effects of lockdowned isolation. Financially it is in a better place to recover.
The idea that vaccines are close or around the corner such that they can be applied to immunise a population during this infection "wave"is considered a fallacy by any form of expert here.
So the assumption is that those that will die pre vaccine will die. However if the peak of the wave is greater than the capacity of the medical systems ability to administer the best health care then there will be other deaths....ie those that might not have died. Italy was an an example of this (it seems to have now peaked) . Spain is considered to be an example of this. Paris has now more intensive cases than it has ICU beds ( intensive cases are now being shipped out of Paris to Brittany and elsewhere).
In the UK we do not yet know. Our level of testing is woeful..but our provision of special care beds and the combined effects of isolating lock down seem to hold out hope.
For sure the lack of testing should mean we are in lock down longer...…. or we risk another wave due to our ignorance.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: DmonSlyr on April 02, 2020, 01:31:51 PM
You don't have actual respect for scientists or doctors, in general. You parse and pick and look for specific examples to support your extreme views (even to the point of misunderstanding what the claim may be). What's 'wrong' with 'us people' is that we're not your wacko support group and won't buy into your delusions.
I'm tired of the socialist communist propaganda take over of america. I'm tired of watching 70,000k people die a year from Over Doses. I'm tired of endless wars in the middle east.
Good thing trump is about to use the full force of the military to take down the Cartel all over the Caribbean and remove their drug routes. Good thing he is saving American woman and children "stuck" in Peru and Hondurous. Remember that girl Trump talked about at the beginning of cornona virus press conference last week, who our military generals saved...
George Washington called and said he wasnt gonna have it anymore.
Your clowns and their destruction of America will be exposed. Mark my words.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: asterix on April 02, 2020, 01:34:25 PM
:rofl Well that did not take long, enter the politics and conspiracy.
In
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: DmonSlyr on April 02, 2020, 01:36:41 PM
:rofl Well that did not take long, enter the politics and conspiracy.
In
Blame the clown trolls in here. I tried to post accurate information by doctors about hydroxyclorquine and they have to counter me and call me names. Its pathetic. But this is what happens when you challenge "the narrative". It pisses me off that it has to come to this.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: perdue3 on April 02, 2020, 01:48:31 PM
USA Pop: 303million Cases: 229,873 Deaths: 5,824 Largest City, New York, Pop: 8.5million. Deaths: 2,219
Japan Pop: 126,476,461 Cases: 2,590 Deaths: 57 Largest City, Tokyo, Pop: 13.9million. Deaths: 56. One death on Hokkaido island.
Japan is doing pretty much what the USA is doing by asking their people to comply and Japan is a culture of compliance to get along. But, they are doing one thing we mostly don't here in the USA. They wear masks when they go into public at all times during this event.
I have a friend in Tokyo who has given me a first-person perspective of the situation. Basically, once the word was out, they shut everything down and quarantined right then and there. Now, everything is fine and people are visiting parks, etc. Here, this did not happen. We heard about it and thought, "Oh, well it is so far away we are fine." "We have it under control" was spewing out of you know where and it hadn't reached us yet. Had we done what Japan did, maybe it would not be as bad. When my friend, who is on these boards, asked what we were doing about it in February, he laughed when I said "nothing." "Wow." That was his expression.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: CptTrips on April 02, 2020, 02:05:14 PM
Testing is vital to lower the R0. R0 is not an intrinsic number, it is a result of cultural practices and mitigation strategies. It can be altered. The less people who get the disease (or even just delaying it as long as possible) will save lives. Especially since we know there are asymptomatic super-spreaders who do not even know they are infectious. Testing allows you to identify spreaders and get them isolated to reduce the R0.
As you mentioned, reducing the R0, even temporarily prevents the medical system from becoming saturated. So that help reduce the CFR, because we have seen that a 1% CFR can climb to 5-10% once the medical system is overloaded.
Widespread, aggressive testing/contract tracing/isolating the infectious, is one of the best ways to get control of the situation as exemplified by S. Korea. It starts with testing.
I've been having a long email argument with a friend over this, who was of the opinion that no effort matters because a vaccine is 18 months away so we are all going to get it anyway so lets just go about our normal business and roll the dice.
My argument back is:
1. Not everyone is going to get it. As more get it and most hopefully recover, we will approach herd immunity. As we approach herd immunity, your odds of getting it, if you haven't already, decrease. Every day you postpone getting sick increases your odds. 30% of the population may never get it at all due to herd immunity. You strategy should be to do everything possible to keep yourself, and those you care about, in that magic 30%.
2. You certainly want to put it off until we have absorbed and processed the massive wave of seriously ill that are all ready on their way due to our delays in taking this seriously. That is already baked-in. There is no avoiding it at this point. Your odds of surviving a serious illness will probably be greater six months from now after that initial wave has been cremated, and additional overflow facilities are fully operational in Hotels and Convention Centers.
3. The longer you can delay getting infected, the greater the chance that a cocktail of pharma will be isolated that can help treat and mitigate the worst of the outcomes. None of them is likely to a magic silver bullet, but even if they can push the odds another 10% into the survival column, then you want those additional odds.
4. Maybe you are lucky enough and delay it long enough and wake up to an announcement that a vaccine has been approved.
:salute
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: DmonSlyr on April 02, 2020, 02:17:01 PM
I have a friend in Tokyo who has given me a first-person perspective of the situation. Basically, once the word was out, they shut everything down and quarantined right then and there. Now, everything is fine and people are visiting parks, etc. Here, this did not happen. We heard about it and thought, "Oh, well it is so far away we are fine." "We have it under control" was spewing out of you know where and it hadn't reached us yet. Had we done what Japan did, maybe it would not be as bad. When my friend, who is on these boards, asked what we were doing about it in February, he laughed when I said "nothing." "Wow." That was his expression.
Unfortunately, if Trump had called to close the entire country on day 1 when the first nursing home patients got it, they would have called him a dictator making irrational decisions to destroy the economy. And both sides would have been against him. Japan has a much smaller population and doesnt have state government bureaucrats to deal with. Just the way it is. Somehow its Trumps fault that Seattle couldn't contain a Virus from a nursing home, but I digress.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: Arlo on April 02, 2020, 02:20:35 PM
I'm tired of the socialist communist propaganda take over of america. I'm tired of watching 70,000k people die a year from Over Doses. I'm tired of endless wars in the middle east.
Good thing trump is about to use the full force of the military to take down the Cartel all over the Caribbean and remove their drug routes. Good thing he is saving American woman and children "stuck" in Peru and Hondurous. Remember that girl Trump talked about at the beginning of cornona virus press conference last week, who our military generals saved...
George Washington called and said he wasnt gonna have it anymore.
Your clowns and their destruction of America will be exposed. Mark my words.
Delusional....just plain delusional. Man, you need to get away from the right wing conspiracy nuts. Hannity is a fool. Limberger is a drug addled fool, and you just have no damned excuse.....
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: Busher on April 02, 2020, 02:51:35 PM
Delusional....just plain delusional. Man, you need to get away from the right wing conspiracy nuts. Hannity is a fool. Limberger is a drug addled fool, and you just have no damned excuse.....
Please drop the politics. Otherwise you allow him to have control over every topic. He can get them all closed just by setting up camp and spewing his nutter political garbage until Hitech locks it. Don't give him that power.
The best way to scrape him off the bottom of your shoe is to just put him on your ignore list.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: TheBug on April 02, 2020, 03:04:03 PM
...and continue to engage people like DmonSlyr and get their threads locked. Instead of ignoring them.
You're right. He is now on ignore where he belongs.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: Eagler on April 02, 2020, 03:14:07 PM
Limitations on these threads will not change the fact that this virus in the end will be all about politics and the economy ... not the lives that are going to be saved through these global economic killing measures.
History will show this out IMO
What does it feel like to be on the doorstep of the greatest depression of all times?
I hoping some jackwad does not try to pull us out of it the same way we recovered from the first one..with a world wide war.
I don't think the next one would end the same way..
But when we are desperate enough...
<S>
Eagler
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: FLS on April 02, 2020, 03:29:06 PM
Keep digging guys and remember the next step in the forum virus containment procedure.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: Ramesis on April 02, 2020, 03:36:21 PM
You don't have actual respect for scientists or doctors, in general. You parse and pick and look for specific examples to support your extreme views (even to the point of misunderstanding what the claim may be). What's 'wrong' with 'us people' is that we're not your wacko support group and won't buy into your delusions.
As if there is not enough to distrust... recall, some scientists claim people cause climate change and others say it does not... some claim nuclear power plants will destroy the earth while others say they won't, Timothy Leary said Acid was good for you and others said it was, etc.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: Arlo on April 02, 2020, 03:50:12 PM
As if there is not enough to distrust... recall, some scientists claim people cause climate change and others say it does not... some claim nuclear power plants will destroy the earth while others say they won't, Timothy Leary said Acid was good for you and others said it was, etc.
Science .... true science .... is self-correcting. Not trusting science because it reflects something you don't prefer to believe is always an option, I suppose, for some. But you might ought to consider believing what a majority of scientists consider actual threats (yes, to you) and not just let that inspire you to seek out the much smaller portion of 'scientists' that are obviously in someone's pocket (said someone having their profits threatened by change).
Politics done yet? :D
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: DmonSlyr on April 02, 2020, 03:59:47 PM
I will continue to post facts from doctors regardless of what the intelligentsia on this forum say about me.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: FLS on April 02, 2020, 04:12:54 PM
Stick to news, skip the editorial comments, and ignore the idiots. :aok
Some good news.
Re HCQ/AZ:
The French doctor has continued to update his results, and they are now based on a thousand patients. Other studies are also underway, and scientists including Fauci have cautioned that the Raoult study is not being done according to the most rigorous standards. But if you want hope along with your clickbait stories of people dying from fish tank cleaner, you could report it: as of Sunday March 29, the French study reported that of 1,003 patients treated with HCQ/AZ, only one had died.
Also this: UPMC unveils potential COVID-19 vaccine. “Scientists say they’ve tested the vaccine in mice, and it produced antibodies specific to SARS-CoV-2 at quantities they believe could be enough to neutralize the coronavirus.”
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: Busher on April 02, 2020, 04:42:09 PM
Stick to news, skip the editorial comments, and ignore the idiots. :aok
Some good news.
Re HCQ/AZ:
The French doctor has continued to update his results, and they are now based on a thousand patients. Other studies are also underway, and scientists including Fauci have cautioned that the Raoult study is not being done according to the most rigorous standards. But if you want hope along with your clickbait stories of people dying from fish tank cleaner, you could report it: as of Sunday March 29, the French study reported that of 1,003 patients treated with HCQ/AZ, only one had died.
Also this: UPMC unveils potential COVID-19 vaccine. “Scientists say they’ve tested the vaccine in mice, and it produced antibodies specific to SARS-CoV-2 at quantities they believe could be enough to neutralize the coronavirus.”
I agree completely. Watching the bad news which is endless, gets tiresome. It's far better for me at least, to get as much information as possible about the research to find a vaccine. We all know that it typically takes at least a year to find these but I tend to believe considering the deadly nature of this bug, that the time frame might be somewhat less.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: bustr on April 02, 2020, 05:03:50 PM
I watched DmonSlyr's linked video to Laura Ingram interviewing Dr. Smith. The FDA gave an approval the day before the interview to use chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine as appropriate for teens and adults to treat COVID-19. Dr. Smith, being an expert in the field of Infectious Disease, recognized around the world, and treating patients with preexisting conditions in real time at his facility during this epidemic. 72 patients, pre-diabetic, diabetic and obese. None died, and none of the 72 had to be intubated during their 4-5 days of hydroxychloroquine-azithro regiment.
It's not an anitvirus but, not all die from getting COVID-19, they get the equivalent of a cold or up to a bad flu. The really bad ones are very obvious to all around them and the 72 Dr. Smith treated all survived. Similar results to the French test. It means there is something in place for the worst to save lives since at some point we have to go back to work. Or all those none retirees who still have to pay the mortgage and build their nest egg to retire on. There are several potential antivirals already in the works around the world. Until then, the worst have a chance to survive under a Doctors care with the hydroxychloroquine-azithro regiment.
I'm going to bet a lot of people here in CA have already had COVID-19 and thought it was a cold or the seasonal flu. I just went through the seasonal flu and I'm alive. There were time's it had a curious similarity to reported symptoms by those who have been interviewed about their COVID-19 experience. And most of the time it just sucked exactly like the seasonal flu. But, we are all on lock down until Pelosi's nephew Gavin decides he looks good enough in the news for saving the USA from COVID-19 and Trump. I seem to remember our CA fearless leaders encouraging everyone to go to San Francisco and take part in the chinese new years festival because everything would be safe. If we were all dieing from it, don't you think with the homeless numbers in LA and SF there would be dead bodies scattered all over the homeless camps? Those homeless have far worse general health then the average citizen. It's really hard in the USA to hide a sharp uptick in mortality even in CA, even with a willing media to cover up for the state government. It's possible in NY City unfortunately because the underground is used by the homeless.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: CptTrips on April 02, 2020, 05:08:25 PM
I agree completely. Watching the bad news which is endless, gets tiresome. It's far better for me at least, to get as much information as possible about the research to find a vaccine. We all know that it typically takes at least a year to find these but I tend to believe considering the deadly nature of this bug, that the time frame might be somewhat less.
I agree, it can be depressing to take in the whole scale of it all.
I don't see how we can get a safe vaccine in less than a year, but I'm happy to be proven wrong. The problem is, as Michael Osterholm said in an interview, he can "invent" a vaccine in an afternoon. But it has to be proven safe/effective in animal models, then it has to be proven safe and effective in limited human trials, it has to be manufacturerable on a large scale...more will fail somewhere along that line for one reason or another. All will take time. Hopefully the process can be streamline as efficiently as safety will allow.
However, remember the test kit debacle. You wouldn't want to rush something out shoddily and inject the whole country with it that turns out to cause leukemia in 2 years. That would be a big oops.
I suspect way before that we will at least get drugs that can help reduce the CFR and control the damage. Hydroxychloroquine might be one of those. Probably not a miracle cure, but one of many that might have some benefit.
In my opinion though, a lot of those "Miracle Malaria Drug!", "Vaccine Found!" articles are some of the most cynical click-bait there is.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: CptTrips on April 02, 2020, 05:48:35 PM
This guy convinced me I was wrong on the masks:
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: bustr on April 02, 2020, 06:12:09 PM
On masks, the government is probably going with everyone using one due to a study on how long the virus can hang in the air of a room with no ventilation.
Here is the reason the antimalarial drugs are so important. The virus is not going to kill as many Americans as another Great Depression.
The unemployment rate could spike to as high as 15% this month, above the previous record of 10.8% set during a deep recession in 1982.
The antimalarial drugs will make it possible to get the American economy back to work and avoid the larger destructive force of a world wide new Great Depression. Remember so far the USA flu season is up to about 16,000 deaths and working on more. None of you are talking end of the world over a piddling 16,000 dead US citizens so far.............
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: Eagler on April 02, 2020, 06:12:57 PM
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: guncrasher on April 02, 2020, 06:13:01 PM
i would use a mask if i could find one. bandanas or anything similar is useless.
I started to have food delivered. no fresh fruit or vegetables. it's more expensive but with my wife at risk, going to stores increases the odds.
what i find out is a lot more places are accepting payments over the phone. i just paid off my car loan, before i would have to bring a check now it's over the phone.
but we'll get thru this. now it's not the time to place blame. it's time for action. blame can be done when this is over.
semp
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: CptTrips on April 02, 2020, 06:18:38 PM
The antimalarial drugs will make it possible to get the American economy back to work
If they work.
But I agree that readily available protective gear for the general population and some progress on at least treating the disease and reducing likelihood of death, would make it a lot easier to relax quarantine.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: guncrasher on April 02, 2020, 06:24:09 PM
Someone, I think Icepac? had posted some data that the virus coating the esophagus could, instead of getting washed into the stomach and destroyed, get aspirated into the lungs from snoring. That makes sense. I had seen some comments from Italy that obesity was emerging as a high risk comorbidity factor.
I've been on the Carnivore diet since Jan 1 and lost about 25lbs. I've noticed my waking myself up snoring has stopped.
Maybe that helps explains why Korea and Japan are fairing so much better than Italy. I suspect they have a lower obesity percentage.
:aok
Good thing we don't have an obesity problem in this country. :noid
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: CptTrips on April 02, 2020, 06:32:54 PM
my wife doesn't even cook or clean but she's great at everything else.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: bustr on April 02, 2020, 08:03:07 PM
It will be hard to find many articles where front line Doctors are interviewed about the results on the ground of using the antimalarial drugs. So read this one first, then attack it's source. The Jewish New York Doctors interviewed were doing what they could to save their patients lives just like if we were at war. The MSM is doing what it can to terrify you about a well known drug used to treat malaria and a number of other illnesses that effect people world wide. I can only imagine why they want to sow such discord about something that so far has saved lives.
One point that the Doctors seem in agreement with, treating sooner during your case of COVID-19 works better than later. But, they are finding it works for their patients and saving their lives is paramount.
I'm only speculating but, back in October until Trump locked us down for travel between China. CA had chinese passing through here and points elsewhere in the USA. And now today with a much larger population than NY. We have only had 212 die of COVID-19 while O'l Gavin only locked the state down about two weeks ago. We have had a FLU season since about Oct\Nov with people getting sick all over with some saying it was a weird flu. No hoards of dead homeless in the camps in LA and around the Bay Area. Gotta wonder if CA got it's herd immunity earlier than the rest of the country. My flu, the last almost seven days has had elements described by the COVID-19 effected right down to what my loogies look like I'm hocking up. In my case, I take cumadin and have to look at every single loogie for blood. All of you have had a flu so bad you hocked up a bit of blood I'm sure and it's normal. In my case, that can lead to other problems due to the cumadin. Makes me not as interested in the sky is falling prognostication everyone is addicted to.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: guncrasher on April 02, 2020, 08:14:18 PM
food for thought bustr 2 years ago everybody at the legion had the flu, we joked that it was the flu legion.
x mas a year ago, nothing, 99 nothing. not one case that i know about. what happened last 2 years? who knows
btw, I'm just talking about 1 specific post. and we have been closed for 3 1/2 weeks, not 2 weeks.
semp
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: CptTrips on April 02, 2020, 09:28:43 PM
I can only imagine why they want to sow such discord about something that so far has saved lives.
There are a variety of anti-viral drugs being tried. I have see no conclusive evidence that any one of them is a magic bullet. An isolated claim unverified by independent researchers is not conclusive evidence. It's just an isolated claim. Be careful you are not too eager to grasp at any straw because you want to believe.
I assure you, if a drug or protocol of drugs proves to be effective and safe you will see it spread in use quickly. They've been trying all kinds of different drugs in the more dire cases. Doctors all over the country are working desperately to save lives. When they find something that really helps, it will not be difficult to replicate the results elsewhere and prove it independently. There is no conspiracy, just insufficient evidence yet.
They will find something sooner or later, or a cocktail of things like for AIDS. Maybe this malaria drug is part of that solution. It's being looked at.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: Shuffler on April 02, 2020, 11:36:26 PM
In the mean time... of the one million cases, how many still have it and how many are cured? No one ever actually has anything accurate, not even close.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: MiloMorai on April 03, 2020, 04:11:17 AM
Just remember that every year you get the common flu.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: ACE on April 03, 2020, 07:04:06 AM
The good ole election year virus. Happens every time.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: Zimme83 on April 03, 2020, 08:19:33 AM
The evidence for using various anti viral drugs against COVID-19 is very weak atm. A bunch of studies are underway but its not going to change the game anytime soon. So im with CptTrips on this one. Vaccine is not coming soon either, while its possible to fast track it a bit you cannot cut the testing, if you are going to give it to more or less the entire human population you must know the side effects of it. You cannot chance. And on top of that you need to produce the vaccine in a few billion doses. So a year would be an amazing achievement.
And no - this is not like the flu, mild in this case means more or less "you dont end up in the ventilator". A lot of "mild" cases are like a severe pneumonia and its not very pleasant at all. If you are 70+ and/or have a heart condition, diabetes etc you should really take this serious. Both because it can kill you and because there might not be anyone that can help you. There is no reason to panic but it must be taken seriously.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: LNG15 on April 03, 2020, 08:45:18 AM
I am not taking any chances with the stuff going on. I did get tested and came up negative just today which I am happy but I will not take any chances at all and I also got a mask on its way to me so I can play safe.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: Eagler on April 03, 2020, 09:13:28 AM
I am not taking any chances with the stuff going on. I did get tested and came up negative just today which I am happy but I will not take any chances at all and I also got a mask on its way to me so I can play safe.
How did you get tested?
I've been sick since 3/16 with everything from upper respiratory/ sinus infection to bronchitis
And i don't get sick
I am 61 in 2 weeks and cannot get tested as I have not had a high fever... yet
<S>
Eagler
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: hitech on April 03, 2020, 09:28:46 AM
Testing is vital to lower the R0. R0 is not an intrinsic number, it is a result of cultural practices and mitigation strategies. It can be altered. The less people who get the disease (or even just delaying it as long as possible) will save lives. Especially since we know there are asymptomatic super-spreaders who do not even know they are infectious. Testing allows you to identify spreaders and get them isolated to reduce the R0.
Simple nomenclature correction. R is the reproduction rate. R0 is a viruses reproduction rate with no intervention. R0 never changes unless a virus changes. Isolation lowers R not R0.
Also I am always wondering why people don't take the other side of the equation. I.E. 2 balancing issues economy vs virus.
But given that you have the ability to support X number people needing medical care. And if your current bed usage is only predicted to be 50 % of beds. Should you wish to increase the infection rate to minimize economic damage?
It apoears to me that if your only goal is to slow the virus as much as possible, you are over looking that increasing in over all damage. VS only wishing to slow the virus enough to not over whelm the system.
HiTech
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: LNG15 on April 03, 2020, 09:31:26 AM
I've been sick since 3/16 with everything from upper respiratory/ sinus infection to bronchitis
And i don't get sick
I am 61 in 2 weeks and cannot get tested as I have not had a high fever... yet
<S>
Eagler
I went to my family doctor and she was given tests by the state which are the ones where they put it through your nose. A drive thru test as you might say and it was confirmed I am negative.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: Shuffler on April 03, 2020, 09:40:42 AM
I am 61. I keep going to the shop. We have our meetings... in the shop spread out, and we wash our hands like always. The only additional practice is distance.
You can't ignore it or ignore others around you. Of course you should never ignore those around you at any time for safety reasons.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: FLS on April 03, 2020, 10:08:49 AM
The evidence for using various anti viral drugs against COVID-19 is very weak atm...
In the news:
The malaria drug hydroxychloroquine is the best coronavirus drug currently available, according to an international poll of thousands of doctors.
Of 6,200 physicians surveyed from 30 countries, the majority (37 per cent) said it was the 'most effective therapy' for the virus.
And this again.
Re HCQ/AZ:
The French doctor has continued to update his results, and they are now based on a thousand patients. Other studies are also underway, and scientists including Fauci have cautioned that the Raoult study is not being done according to the most rigorous standards. But if you want hope along with your clickbait stories of people dying from fish tank cleaner, you could report it: as of Sunday March 29, the French study reported that of 1,003 patients treated with HCQ/AZ, only one had died.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: asterix on April 03, 2020, 10:44:58 AM
Simple nomenclature correction. R is the reproduction rate. R0 is a viruses reproduction rate with no intervention. R0 never changes unless a virus changes. Isolation lowers R not R0.
If you google for "Complexity of the Basic Reproduction Number (R ) - CDC" then there is a link to pdf document where it is said that:
Any factor having the potential to influence the contact rate, including population density (e.g., rural vs. urban), social organization (e.g., in-tegrated vs. segregated), and seasonality (e.g., wet vs. rainy season for vectorborne infections), will ultimately affect R0. Because R0 is a function of the effective contact rate, the value of R0 is a function of human social behavior and organization, as well as the innate biological characteristics of particular pathogens. More than 20 different R0 values (range 5.4–18) were reported for measles in a variety of study areas and periods (22), and a review in 2017 iden-tified feasible measles R0 values of 3.7–203.3 (23)
So isolation and any other measure not creating immunity does seem to change R0.
Also:
When examining the effect of vaccination, the more appropriate metric to use is the effective reproduction number (R), which is similar to R0 but does not assume complete susceptibility of the pop-ulation and, therefore, can be estimated with populations having immune members (16,20,27).
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: asterix on April 03, 2020, 10:49:05 AM
The malaria drug hydroxychloroquine is the best coronavirus drug currently available, according to an international poll of thousands of doctors.
I assume soon not to be available anywhere as anyone with access to it will buy all of it so nobody else could use it.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: FLS on April 03, 2020, 10:52:47 AM
Asterix I think that's just showing the definition of intervention as used by the CDC is not the same as general usage. Those factors make a difference but they aren't medical interventions.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: noman on April 03, 2020, 11:07:19 AM
Asterix I think that's just showing the definition of intervention as used by the CDC is not the same as general usage. Those factors make a difference but they aren't medical interventions.
From https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number#calculation (https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number#calculation):
The following factors are taken into account to calculate the R0 of a disease: Infectious period Contact rate Mode of transmission
Contact rate
If a person who’s infected with a contagious disease comes into contact with many people who aren’t infected or vaccinated, the disease will spread more quickly. If that person remains at home, in a hospital, or otherwise quarantined while they’re contagious, the disease will spread more slowly. A high contact rate will contribute to a higher R0 value.
General usage is usage by who? Hospital staff? Virologists?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: Eagler on April 03, 2020, 11:15:04 AM
I went to my family doctor and she was given tests by the state which are the ones where they put it through your nose. A drive thru test as you might say and it was confirmed I am negative.
So you had a temperature of over 100 for longer than 24 hrs?
Glad you say you dont have it but you are the first regular joe i have heard that got tested
Also remember you can still get it in a ny minute if you are careless
<S>
Eagler
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: Shuffler on April 03, 2020, 11:33:43 AM
This goes back to my earlier post.... over one million cases, but not one million have it. Many are over it. We have no idea as numbers are all askew.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: LNG15 on April 03, 2020, 11:43:48 AM
So you had a temperature of over 100 for longer than 24 hrs?
Glad you say you dont have it but you are the first regular joe i have heard that got tested
Also remember you can still get it in a ny minute if you are careless
<S>
Eagler
No I never had it in the first place.
My uncle went to the hospital and we were worried that he may of had it but it turned it to not be the case. He has sepsis due to a UTI getting into his blood stream and he was dehydrated due to not drinking enough water. He is on Antibiotics to help with the sepsis and he is on fluids to help hydrate him. He is negative as well. My mom wanted to get the test done to make sure we didnt have it. And so she my brother got our tests done on the 1st and got our results back today confirmed that we are negative. And I am careful as well. I wash my hands regularly at work and at home. I have been playing it safe.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)
Post by: hitech on April 03, 2020, 12:04:33 PM
Some people including the OP cant seem to refrain from name calling so once again closed. And I really have no desire to have to delete large number of posts in this topic.