Two Donkeys and a Million Bucks

[AWwrgwy]

What is confusing everyone is that they think their odds go up to 50/50 after the third choice is eliminated.

Think about it like this:  You randomly pick one of the 3 choices, so your odds of getting it right are 1 in 3.  If you correctly picked, (which should occur about 1/3rd of the time) and you switch (which you should) you lose.  However, the odds are that 2 out of 3 times you pick the wrong one so that switching should give you a winning percentage of 66%. (TWICE your original odds of 1 in 3)

Clear as mud..

Exactly!!


wrongway

[APDrone]

I figured out the whole misunderstanding yesterday.

It's all relative to what percentages you're describing.

I agree that the chance that your first choice is correct is 1 in 3 or 33.3333.. %

I also agree that by that principle, the odds would dictate that you should switch your selection, since you were most likely wrong on your first choice.

However, when you say 'what are your chances of being correct' after the first donkey is exposed, the result is 50/50.


It's really how you word it. 

Sorta like  2+2=5, for large values of 2.

90 is 10% less than 100...    but 100 is 11% more than 90.

Woohoo!! Happy Friday!!

[FireDrgn]

After the donkey is shown your chance is still  1out of 3  not 50/50


Your first choice locks you in at 1/3  just because you see a donkey does not change the choice you made... Its the same choice.. The same choice is the same odds of 1/3......

think of it this way if you were shown the money instead of a donkey..... you would only be right 1/3 of the time........ To get the money 50% of the time you would still have to switch doors.  If you stay with your first choice your only going to get the money 1/3 of the time...

<S>

[AWwrgwy]

My conundrum (still) is that the third door is irrelevant as is your first choice. 

2 doors.  1 donkey.  1 $1million.  Pick one door.

Are my odds still 1 in 3?

Say I picked door #1 with three doors.  66.6% donkey.  One donkey is gone now.  Door #1 = 50% donkey, just like the other door that is left.

If you have two doors to begin with and choose one, and were offered to switch, would you?

I get the "three doors, switch" thing but I, and I'm sure other naysayers, see the second choice as a choice of two doors starting from scratch.





wrongway