Tricky

[AKIron]

True.  The odds are against you, but there is still a chance.  Sure probably not going to happen...  Or is it?

Coogan

The odds of winning the lottery are infinitesimal but still far far greater if you buy a ticket than if you don't. I buy one every now and then when they grow into the hundreds of millions. Wife says it would ruin me if I won. No doubt she's right but I wouldn't mind a little ruining.

[100Coogn]

I know I was buying those lottery tickets here in Michigan last year, when the jackpot was $1.9 Billion. 
Never won diddly...

Coogan

[Elfie]

The odds of winning the lottery are infinitesimal but still far far greater if you buy a ticket than if you don't. I buy one every now and then when they grow into the hundreds of millions. Wife says it would ruin me if I won. No doubt she's right but I wouldn't mind a little ruining.

People say money can't buy you happiness and they are probably right but I'll bet money can buy your way out of a whole lot of misery. 

[DmonSlyr]

I'm gonna go with 50% chance model. I think the third model is over complicating it. The person, no matter the day, always has a 50-50 chance of choosing heads or tails. Seeing that they are always unaware of the day, or how many times they have awoken before. They have no basis or enference on how to choose. Therefore they will always have a 50/50 chance. So, even if tails was selected every time and woke up Monday and Tuesday everytime, the person would never know that, therefore they still have only 2 options heads or tails. 50/50.

[-gg-]

I'm gonna go with 50% chance model. I think the third model is over complicating it. The person, no matter the day, always has a 50-50 chance of choosing heads or tails. Seeing that they are always unaware of the day, or how many times they have awoken before. They have no basis or enference on how to choose. Therefore they will always have a 50/50 chance. So, even if tails was selected every time and woke up Monday and Tuesday everytime, the person would never know that, therefore they still have only 2 options heads or tails. 50/50.

and that would be correct.

the fact that she's sleeping, awakened, what day it is, or if she knows anything or not have absolutely no bearing on the outcome or the odds. I don't even understand why people think of it as some kind of conundrum.

It's simple. They toss a coin only one time. 50/50 chance it's heads. If it's tails, they wake her up two days in a row - and those are  the only outcomes.

Same thing if I said: flip a coin. If it's heads you get an apple on Monday. If it's tails you get an apple on Monday and an apple on Tuesday.

[guncrasher]

I'm gonna go with 50% chance model. I think the third model is over complicating it. The person, no matter the day, always has a 50-50 chance of choosing heads or tails. Seeing that they are always unaware of the day, or how many times they have awoken before. They have no basis or enference on how to choose. Therefore they will always have a 50/50 chance. So, even if tails was selected every time and woke up Monday and Tuesday everytime, the person would never know that, therefore they still have only 2 options heads or tails. 50/50.

3rd option pee.


semp

[AKIron]

The process was explained to her. She knows the odds. Heads, she will be awakened once. Tails twice. 

[DmonSlyr]

The process was explained to her. She knows the odds. Heads, she will be awakened once. Tails twice.

But she won't know that she's already been awakened.

[AKIron]

She knows the odds. That 2 out of 3 times she is awakened the coin will have been tails.

[-gg-]

She knows the odds. That 2 out of 3 times she is awakened the coin will have been tails.

Every time she wakes up, she knows that the coin was tossed. That's all she knows. It doesn't even matter what she knows. The only question she has to answer is "What is the probability that the coin came up heads"


The odds of her waking up are 100 percent.

The odds that's she wakes up twice in a week are 50%
The odds that she wakes up once is 50%

There is no mystery and there is no controversy of math or philosophy.

Each time she wakes up, the probability that the coin came up heads is 50%

[AKIron]

It's interesting that the likes and dislikes are almost 3 to 1 for likes. I figured it'd be more half and half. I think it's because he explains it well.

[-gg-]

I don't get what people are thinking, or even why he thinks it's a riddle.

[-gg-]

Just to recap.

Heads = she wakes up Monday
Tails = she wakes up Monday and Tuesday.

No riddle at all.


There is no "one in three" probability for the coin toss. It's 50/50

There's "no one in three" probability that it's a Tuesday when she's awake either. It's 50/50