Bush’s lead in poll has evaporated.

[rpm]

source

By Brian Braiker
Newsweek
Updated: 6:04 p.m. ET Oct. 2, 2004

Oct. 2 - With a solid majority of voters concluding that John Kerry outperformed George W. Bush in the first presidential debate on Thursday, the president’s lead in the race for the White House has vanished, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. In the first national telephone poll using a fresh sample, NEWSWEEK found the race now statistically tied among all registered voters, 47 percent of whom say they would vote for Kerry and 45 percent for George W. Bush in a three-way race.

Removing Independent candidate Ralph Nader, who draws 2 percent of the vote, widens the Kerry-Edwards lead to three points with 49 percent of the vote versus the incumbent’s 46 percent. Four weeks ago the Republican ticket, coming out of a successful convention in New York, enjoyed an 11-point lead over Kerry-Edwards with Bush pulling 52 percent of the vote and the challenger just 41 percent.

In fact, Kerry’s numbers have improved across the board, while Bush’s vulnerabilities have become more pronounced. The senator is seen as more intelligent and well-informed (80 percent, up six points over last month, compared to Bush’s steady 59 percent); as having strong leadership skills (56 percent, also up 6 points, but still less than Bush’s 62 percent) and as someone who can be trusted to make the right calls in an international crisis (51 percent, up five points and tied with Bush).

For the NEWSWEEK poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,013 registered voters aged 18 and older between Sept. 30 and Oct. 2 by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

[Ripsnort]

Newsweek.


Try this  Check it in 10 days.

(Look back to August with those historic dates down below on that webpage...WOW!:eek:  )

[Nash]

Originally posted by Ripsnort
Try this  Check it in 10 days.

NONE of which were taken after the debate.

Which kinda brings nothing to the table here Rip does it?

Rpm is talking about the effect of the debate... and you post old numbers and tell us to check back in 10 days.

Geez.... thanks.

[rpm]

I just see it as history repeating it's self. Bush,Sr.'s campaign fell apart in the last 30 days, too.

[Ripsnort]

What I'm saying is one liberal rags poll, would almost certainly be favoring Kerry.

Lets get a Fox poll next! Wanna bet Bush leads that one 49-43?

[Nash]

Then I agree... One poll isn't enough...

There's quite a few out there that I consider quite sketchy, and wouldn't trust even if I liked what it showed.

Newsweek isn't even on my radar.

[DREDIOCK]

From the same article

interesting to note

   
Although the subject of the draft was only briefly addressed during the debate, four in ten voters (38 percent) believe that because of the war in Iraq—which 50 percent of all voters now view as unnecessary—a second Bush administration would reinstate the draft. Just 18 percent feel the same would happen if Kerry were elected. Nearly two thirds (62 percent) feel a draft should not be considered at this time and 28 percent said a draft should at least be considered.

I find this interesting because while there is a bill currently being proposed to re-instate the draft. And it has been touted at an effort by the current administration to sneak it in while everyone is focused on the election
It has been put forth not by the Bush administration or republican party but by 2 Democrats.

[Lizking]

Polls at a national level are worth just a little more than the polls on BBS's, that is to say, they are worth 2 dog turds in a ripped plastic sack.

There is a poll taken on 11/2/04 that counts.  Until then, you should use Vegas odds, not "random polls".

[Nash]

I completely agree Liz... to a point.

National polls are meaningless except in the case of general impressions. "Leadership abilities". Or "Team building abilities", for example.

[1K3]

I can't wait next week. Kerry will give the FINAL BLOW!

And yes, its gonna be about domestic issues

[Lizking]

Nash, I do not argue that the statisical anaylsis is wrong, just that the answers given are not truthful.  That is the problem with any poll or questionaire; people will answer as they wish they were, or they think you want, instead of the truth.

[Nash]

I dunno about that Liz...

I guess it's like you said, we'll know on the 2nd.

[DREDIOCK]

Originally posted by 1K3
I can't wait next week. Kerry will give the FINAL BLOW!

And yes, its gonna be about domestic issues

Final blow to what?
Just saw a recent report that in electoral votes Bush still very much has a commanding lead and just picked up another state.


I may be wrong but I have this Gut feeling that Kerry isnt going to do as well in the next debate as his supporters think he will.

Either way this election goes its turning into a hell of a good game.

[B17Skull12]

the subject of statistics can only be right so many times.

[Gixer]

Originally posted by DREDIOCK
Final blow to what?
I may be wrong but I have this Gut feeling that Kerry isnt going to do as well in the next debate as his supporters think he will.

He will if Bush still waffles statements like this during a debate.

"In Iraq, no doubt about it, it's tough. It's hard work. It's incredibly hard. It's - and it's hard work. I understand how hard it is. I get the casualty reports every day. I see on the TV screens how hard it is. But it's necessary work. We're making progress. It is hard work."

Very reasuring.



...-Gixer