Author Topic: Make Iran Make the 1st Move  (Read 4146 times)

Offline GRUNHERZ

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« Reply #105 on: January 28, 2005, 08:32:13 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by SaburoS
I never did rule out the military, never have. What I disagree with is how it's used.


CC.

Even following your scenario it would become a geberal war very quickly and probably a much messier one since the Taliban would have more time to prepare, mobilize and fight harder during thse precise strikes you mention.

Offline Holden McGroin

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« Reply #106 on: January 28, 2005, 09:09:04 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by GScholz
Yes! ... AND the US response. I'm sorry if that wasn't clear to you. I'm not used to having to explain simple connections like "the US response to a nuclear blast on US soil" to people of limited cognitive abilities.


[head scratch]
So... you prefer the distruction of a US city and the retaliation that would follow that may kill tens of millions from Qom to Tehran... to... a conventional conflict in Iran ala' the removal of Saddam and Baathists from Iraq.  

You prefer 10+ million deaths to a conventional alternative that may be on the scale of 10k to 100k deaths.
[/head scratch]

You must really hate Iranians.
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Offline SaburoS

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« Reply #107 on: January 29, 2005, 02:19:34 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
CC.

Even following your scenario it would become a geberal war very quickly and probably a much messier one since the Taliban would have more time to prepare, mobilize and fight harder during thse precise strikes you mention.


Naw, they were too busy in their own civil war against the Northern Alliance forces.
Big difference would be that we wouldn't be an occupation force but a quick strike surgical one.
Once a suspect was positively identified, we'd bring our forces to the ready for quick snatch.
Wipe out any active resistance and get out.
Much less casualties all around especially innocent civillians.
We'd be fighting the "good" fight imho. We have a choice in how we want to prosecute this war, we're choosing a more costly and deadly way.
Men fear thought as they fear nothing else on earth -- more than ruin -- more even than death.... Thought is subversive and revolutionary, destructive and terrible, thought is merciless to privilege, established institutions, and comfortable habit. ... Bertrand Russell

Offline GRUNHERZ

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« Reply #108 on: January 29, 2005, 02:58:53 AM »
You oversimplify.  What you suggest would quickly turn into the vietnam war era search and destroy missions where our army units took a VC base one day, then left. Some intel report would come in citing enemy activity there and they would retake it then leave etc. I hear those were a great strategy.

As for the civil war, well the northern alliance controlled maye 10% of afghanistan and their leader ahmed Shah Massoud was assasinated by foreign Al Qaeda men posing as journaliosts a few days before 911. They were poised to fall and your plan would have pretty much assured that.

And you cannot just go hopping about an active war zone doing special precision ground actions to capture al qaeda men in their Afghan camps for any long period of time without it turning into a full scale and much bigger war, and in this case a much nastier war you are less well prepared for since I'm sure yopur stategy of limtied presvion command raids does not include degrading the Talibans national  military infrastructure beforehand.

Also what is this "once our suspect is clearly identified" stuff?  Do you expect that we would know exactly where he was down to the meter?  How much time do you want to seach for him to "clearly ID the guy? Thats not how things work, they would have to secure and search pretty large areas and those searches take time since the al qaeda and taliban were experts in hiding drugs, guns, people etc.  They wouldnt just walk up to a house and pull the guy from his bed in Afhghan training camps.

Finally you mentioned waiting until our inbtelligence services were reformed and made better before responding and starting to arrest the AQ people. Well how long do you think that would take?  These are huge agencies, with huge bureocracies and extablished practices. On top of that, they are regulated by congress.  It would take months and months and months to design and arrange all these ghanges let alone begin to implement them. Yet you seem to think it's just a matter of saying that it should be done...

 
Saburo I'm sensitive to your need not be called names, but I have to express my view that your ideas in this topic strike me as naive and not all that well thought out.

Offline Elfie

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« Reply #109 on: January 29, 2005, 03:04:49 AM »
http://www.iraqwatch.org/profiles/chemical.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2590265.stm

http://traprockpeace.org/iraqweaponsc.html

Scroll down till you see this: (first part is a link to a pdf file, I didnt take the time to read it yet) The UN found (prior to the US invasion of Iraq) that Iraq hadn't accounted for all of its VX gas production. Iirc the UN is *most of the world*.

State Department, 27 February 2003: "The UN concluded that Iraq had not accounted for 1.5 tons of the VX agent. Just one drop is enough to kill a person."

This is what the US gov't knew, or thought it knew prior to invading Iraq. This CIA report talks about the discrepancies in Iraq's reporting as well. Again, I didnt read all of this one, just most of the front page.

http://www.cia.gov/cia/reports/iraq_wmd/Iraq_Oct_2002.htm

These are just the first 4 results from my Google attempt. Serious questions still remain on the where abouts of filled artillery shells, bombs, chemical agents, chemical precursors, biological agents etc.

So what if the US gov't admits to not finding any WMD? The possibility of chemical weapons etc in hidden caches *somewhere* is very real. The scary part is, absolutely NO ONE knows for sure.


Some people seem to assume that President Bush declared war on Al-Qaeada after 9-11......he didnt. I clearly recall him declaring war on terrorism, not Al-qaeada.
Corkyjr on country jumping:
In the end you should be thankful for those players like us who switch to try and help keep things even because our willingness to do so, helps a more selfish, I want it my way player, get to fly his latewar uber ride.

Offline Elfie

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« Reply #110 on: January 29, 2005, 03:10:22 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by SaburoS
Naw, they were too busy in their own civil war against the Northern Alliance forces.
Big difference would be that we wouldn't be an occupation force but a quick strike surgical one.
Once a suspect was positively identified, we'd bring our forces to the ready for quick snatch.
Wipe out any active resistance and get out.
Much less casualties all around especially innocent civillians.
We'd be fighting the "good" fight imho. We have a choice in how we want to prosecute this war, we're choosing a more costly and deadly way.


In some cases this approach should be used. I believe the Taliban would have just supported someone else if we had managed to bag bin-Laden in this manner. Also, just nabbing bin-Laden wouldnt stop Al-Qaeada, someone else would step up into the top job.
Corkyjr on country jumping:
In the end you should be thankful for those players like us who switch to try and help keep things even because our willingness to do so, helps a more selfish, I want it my way player, get to fly his latewar uber ride.

Offline SaburoS

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« Reply #111 on: January 29, 2005, 02:25:43 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
Saburo I'm sensitive to your need not be called names, but I have to express my view that your ideas in this topic strike me as naive and not all that well thought out.


You miss the point entirely. Why do you have this constant apparant need to throw labels at people that happen to disagree with you?
You also have this bad habit of framing your opponent's argument to something that suits your argument.

The first part will only lead to closed threads, warnings (and possibly bannings) from Skuzzy. I feel Skuzzy has more important things to do with his time. If you can't articulate your argument clear enough without resorting to insults and name calling, perhaps you should look in the mirror and look hard.

Second part, we'll leave to continued discussions.
End of the reasons for childish namecalling. I hope you finally get it. Let your argument speak for itself.

********
You still keep doging the cost and casualty questions that I've asked twice already. Care to finally answer them or do you just want to keep dodging?
Do you really think that the Al Quaeda camps (as well as other terrorist camps are located only in Afghanistan??
What do these camps look like?
Any videos of their getting shot/blown up?
How many have we found?

You think these Al Quaeda are actually stupid enough to stay in any organized place long enough to be found after an official announcement and invasion of a major military force?
The ones in Afghanistan scattered. That's what small groups have is mobility and why our present military ops are not going to win this war against terrorists. It will bankrupt us.
Are we going to invade and go to war with every nation that could house terrorists?
How about Pakistan? Saudi Arabia? Libya? Egypt? Yemen? Syria? (This is just the Middle East area)
How about in the Americas?
The 9/11 terrorists got some of their training here in the US and possibly Canada. They definitely were staying in our two countries for a while before the attacks.
How about in Asia?
Europe?

You keep aluding to Vietnam, but our present ops are closer to Vietnam than what I was aluding to.

We've entered a new era of warfare, one against very small groups that are essentially countryless. Their allegience is to themselves as a cause, not a country. They've got small pockets in most continents. They are usually independent of each other and fighting for their own causes.

What we need to do is deploy more satelites to keep a stationary position over suspected sites. Upon suspected activity, we increase recon overflights and we start deploying our nearest Navy Carrier group. After closer scrutiny, we deploy Special Ops troops (Force Recon, Seals, Sniper/Observation Teams, etc) for a confirmation. If confirmed as a threat to the US (or our allies) we take out hostile "military" personnel that happen to take an active defense. Primary goal is to snatch alive our targets for interrogation.
In short, we're in, we're out. Minimal cost in casualties and comparitive dollars (compared to present day ops in Afghanistan).
You catch the enemy when he is least expecting it, not when he's in hiding. We just need to catch a few members to get the info of where most of the rest of their group is.

What we're not doing is our present Vietnam style search and destroy ops which are costing waay to much in our own soldiers getting killed, innocent civillian casualties, and dollars.

We also need to be paying much more attention to what's going on at our own borders. I'm more concerned with terrorists coming into my country than some dessert in the Middle East/Asia/Africa.

So give us the figures here and show us how successful our Afghanistan campaign is. BTW, another reason to minimize civillian casualties is not help the enemy your seeking. Friends and family of those that die can not care less that it was as accident or misjudgement. Quickest way of making your enemy stronger. Don't discount that.
Men fear thought as they fear nothing else on earth -- more than ruin -- more even than death.... Thought is subversive and revolutionary, destructive and terrible, thought is merciless to privilege, established institutions, and comfortable habit. ... Bertrand Russell

Offline NUKE

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« Reply #112 on: January 29, 2005, 02:42:23 PM »
Afghanistan had a government that supported and aided in the attacks on 911 and provided a whole country for OBL to operate in freely.

1. Iraq was not attacked because of terrorism
2. If we attack Iran, it will be to eliminate a nuclear capability and a threat. Its not because we are going after terrorists.

The war on terror groups is ongoing and a lot of the things you said we need to be doing to fight them are already being done, plus alot more that we will probably never hear about.

Offline SaburoS

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« Reply #113 on: January 29, 2005, 02:43:26 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Elfie
In some cases this approach should be used. I believe the Taliban would have just supported someone else if we had managed to bag bin-Laden in this manner. Also, just nabbing bin-Laden wouldnt stop Al-Qaeada, someone else would step up into the top job.


If we hadn't invaded Afghanistan, the Taliban have more pressing issues at hand. They still had their hands full with both the Northern Alliance forces and rebuilding their country.

I want all members of the group that are responsible for 9/11. Bin Laden heads that list. With him in custody, we're able to determine his chain of command which will lead to the capture/interrogation/capture/interrogation until that group ceases to be a threat.

We can't afford the cost in poeple and dollars in invading/occupying every nation that could be hiding our terrorists. The terrorists will keep moving.
Men fear thought as they fear nothing else on earth -- more than ruin -- more even than death.... Thought is subversive and revolutionary, destructive and terrible, thought is merciless to privilege, established institutions, and comfortable habit. ... Bertrand Russell

Offline GRUNHERZ

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« Reply #114 on: January 29, 2005, 02:49:19 PM »
The cost question is a pointless red herring for you. You present a hypothetical scenario which yoiu imagine to be a some great thing and you want me to compare it to a real life scenario.  As for name calling I'm gonna go right now and say that you are smart enough guy to know thats a pretty convenenit bbs gimmick for you; real costs of real things vs cosys of undefined hypotheticals.  So you cut it out.

And where is this idea that your plan would be cheap? You talk of reorganizing the whole intelligence operation, that cost billions. You talk about putting stationary statelites over many single sites to watch them, do yoiu know how much that costs? How many satelites. As for lives lost, well in afghanistan we have lost very few soldiers for all taht we have done maybe 100 to 200.  Do you think that your special raids would be causalty free to the USA? Or the Afghans? They would turn out like a whole bunch of little mogadishusus, where we would have to eastabilish control over each city block and have a real close fight. There we lost 19 guys and we killed 2,000 Somalis. With your plan there would be nothing to stop the Taliban and AQ from simply hiding in the crowded narrow street cities of Afghanistan. And since your plan calls for arrests and trials we would have to pull mogadishus there to get them. In fact it woyuld be worse than Mogadishu since we could only insert/extract from helicopters since your plan calls for no ground bases or occupying territory in afghanistan. At least in Moigadishu we had a grouynd base at the locakl airporort and the Pakistani UN IN THE CTY to lend us APCs which saved lives of prolly more US soldiers when they got trapped.

Honestly Saburo I have every right to tell yoiu that I think yiur ideas are not well thoiught out and that they wouldnt work in real life. Yiu may now attcak me for being mean to you or whatever, I dont care beyond trying not to ibnsult you. But if you are as mature as you say you should not be insulted because we dosagree or because I dont accept your pov and tnink you are wrong. OK? We agree on that, right?

Offline NUKE

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« Reply #115 on: January 29, 2005, 02:52:45 PM »
The fact is that we are fighting terrorists in many, many ways that we will probably never hear about.

To imply that because we attacked Afghanistan and Iraq, we are fighting the war on terror only by invading countries is completely incorrect.

It's nothing like Vietnam.

Offline Thrawn

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« Reply #116 on: January 29, 2005, 02:56:50 PM »
"The fact is that we are fighting terrorists in many, many ways that we will probably never hear about. "


LOL!  How the hell is that a "fact" when you can't prove it because we will never hear about it.



This has become the most retarded thread in the history of the internet.

Offline NUKE

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« Reply #117 on: January 29, 2005, 02:58:47 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Thrawn
"The fact is that we are fighting terrorists in many, many ways that we will probably never hear about. "


LOL!  How the hell is that a "fact" when you can't prove it because we will never hear about it.



This has become the most retarded thread in the history of the internet.


The fact is that we are fighting the war on terror and going after groups in many ways, many that we will probably never hear about.

Better?

Offline SaburoS

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« Reply #118 on: January 29, 2005, 03:13:17 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
The cost question is a pointless red herring for you. You present a hypothetical scenario which yoiu imagine to be a some great thing and you want me to compare it to a real life scenario.  As for name calling I'm gonna go right now and say that you are smart enough guy to know thats a pretty convenenit bbs gimmick for you; real costs of real things vs cosys of undefined hypotheticals.  So you cut it out.


No Grun,
We're talking about real costs for a real operation. One that you believe is the right way.

Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
And where is this idea that your plan would be cheap? You talk of reorganizing the whole intelligence operation, that cost billions. You talk about putting stationary statelites over many single sites to watch them, do yoiu know how much that costs? How many satelites. As for lives lost, well in afghanistan we have lost very few soldiers for all taht we have done maybe 100 to 200.  Do you think that your special raids would be causalty free to the USA? Or the Afghans? They would turn out like a whole bunch of little mogadishusus, where we would have to eastabilish control over each city block and have a real close fight. There we lost 19 guys and we killed 2,000 Somalis. With your plan there would be nothing to stop the Taliban and AQ from simply hiding in the crowded narrow street cities of Afghanistan. And since your plan calls for arrests and trials we would have to pull mogadishus there to get them. In fact it woyuld be worse than Mogadishu since we could only insert/extract from helicopters since your plan calls for no ground bases or occupying territory in afghanistan. At least in Moigadishu we had a grouynd base at the locakl airporort and the Pakistani UN IN THE CTY to lend us APCs which saved lives of prolly more US soldiers when they got trapped.


My ops would be far cheaper and more effective than our present ops. You think our ops in Afghanistan are the end of it?
That somehow all of our enemies have just moved into Afghanistan so they could be captured and/or killed?
Afghanistan is just the tip of the iceberg. After we withdraw, we invade what country next? Pakistan? Pick your country. The terrorists will just move back to Afghanistan and anywhere we don't have an active presence.
We're talking terror camps. Remember that's the reason we went into Afghanistan. Mogudishu is your red herring. Not enough support, not covert, didn't wait until the timing was right.

Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
Honestly Saburo I have every right to tell yoiu that I think yiur ideas are not well thoiught out and that they wouldnt work in real life. Yiu may now attcak me for being mean to you or whatever, I dont care beyond trying not to ibnsult you. But if you are as mature as you say you should not be insulted because we dosagree or because I dont accept your pov and tnink you are wrong. OK? We agree on that, right?


LOL, you crack me up. You think my motive for the no-namecalling discussions is because I'm too sensitive to it? You want to carry on an insult laden discussion then email me big boy.

Don't mistake my restraint on a public BBS (where it has been specifically requested of its membership to refrain from insults) as somehow that I can't take it.
I've clearly defined why I don't resort to such insults.
**DO YOU FINALLY GRASP THIS CONCEPT?**
If not, email me. My email addy is in my profile. Carry on as you wish, I'll respond in kind. Insult me in private and I'll return the favor.
Carry on a meaningful discussion here on this BBS and I'll respond in kind.
Of course we disagree! That's what these discussions are about. I don't disrespect you less as an individual because you happen to have an outlook different than mine.
My question to you is, why are you seemingly chomping at the bit to throw out labels here?
Let your argument speak for itself. If you can't grasp this concept, contact Skuzzy. Maybe he can articulate it better for you.
Men fear thought as they fear nothing else on earth -- more than ruin -- more even than death.... Thought is subversive and revolutionary, destructive and terrible, thought is merciless to privilege, established institutions, and comfortable habit. ... Bertrand Russell

Offline GRUNHERZ

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« Reply #119 on: January 29, 2005, 03:19:54 PM »
Me telling you that I disagree with your pov and that I think you are wrong insults you?

No need to continue the discussion if thats how you are going to take it.