Author Topic: Dispersion Angle for rapid fire WW2 aircraft guns  (Read 7557 times)

Offline Crumpp

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Dispersion Angle for rapid fire WW2 aircraft guns
« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2005, 06:15:31 PM »
Quote
Therefore some amount of dispersion gives an advantage.


Not really.  Have you read any vunerability reports? Basically you need concentrated firepower and/or realtively large amounts of explosive force to ensure an immediate shoot down.

All the best,

Crumpp

Offline gripen

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Dispersion Angle for rapid fire WW2 aircraft guns
« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2005, 06:34:01 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Crumpp
Not really.  Have you read any vunerability reports? Basically you need concentrated firepower and/or realtively large amounts of explosive force to ensure an immediate shoot down.


Actually in the case of systematical error some amount of dispersion gives more concentrated firepower. And at long range the aiming error is probably systematic.

gripen

Offline Crumpp

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Dispersion Angle for rapid fire WW2 aircraft guns
« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2005, 06:41:14 PM »
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Actually in the case of systematical error some amount of dispersion gives more concentrated firepower


Greater dispersion does not give you greater concentration, Gripen.  That is an oxymoron.  Sort of like being an "accurate estimate".

All the best,

Crumpp

Offline gripen

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Dispersion Angle for rapid fire WW2 aircraft guns
« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2005, 06:52:12 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Crumpp
Greater dispersion does not give you greater concentration, Gripen.  That is an oxymoron.  Sort of like being an "accurate estimate".


Actually it gives if the aiming error is systematic as it probably is at long range. Just think dispersion patterns and systematical error.

gripen

Offline HoHun

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Re: Re: Dispersion Angle for rapid fire WW2 aircraft guns
« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2005, 07:17:32 PM »
Hi again,

>

The dispersion values I posted above are for 100% dispersion diameters. As a rule of thumb, wing mountings have about 1.5 times the dispersion indicated above.

After sorting it out, here my example:

With regard to long range fire, it's a combination of three factors:

- Trajectory
- Dispersion
- Divergence

(The latter simply describes what happens if you pass the convergence point - the lines of fire diverge.)

So let's have a look at three different batteries to estimate the long-range fire capabilities (against a fighter-sized target held perfectly stationary in the centre of the sight):

1.) 1 x MK108 engine cannon
2.) 8 x Browning M2, wing mounted
3.) 4 x Browning M2, nose mounted

The MK108 has low dispersion and no divergence problem. Out to 500 m, its fire will strike the target with hardly any misses (as long as the crosshairs are perfectly aligned with the target centre), but beyond that, the trajectory drops far below the sight line, so with our setup, the fire will miss completely.

The wing-mounted Brownings, set to 250 m convergence for our example, have a high dispersion, large convergence/divergence effects and a very flat trajectory. At 100 m, some of the fire will hit both wings of the target, at 200 to 300 m, most of the fire will strike the fuselage (with enough bullets missing to be helpful in a realistic situation where the aim is not perfect :-), and at 400 m, the tips of the horizontal stabilizer will be showered. At 500 m and beyond, the greatest share of the bullets will miss, but you will still get strikes on the wings out to 900 m. (Realistically, you could deliberately aim at one wing tip to hit the fuselage, accepting that 50% of the fire will miss. In simulators, I do occasionally use this technique :-)

The nose-mounted Brownings combine low dispersion, centreline fire and flat trajectory. Out to 300 m, the fire will hit virtually without a miss, then the hit ratio will begin to drop very gradually, but even at 700 m about 80% of the fire will be on target. At 800 m, trajectory drop will become apparent, reducing target coverage to maybe 40%, and even less at 900 m. (Realistically, this drop is so slight that the pilot could probably compensate for it.)

So our three example batteries, modelled roughly after those of the Me 109, P-47 and P-38 (leaving out the 20 mm cannon of the latter) show rather different problems with long range fire.

The Me 109 enjoys great accuracy out to 500 m, but trajectory drop beyond that is very sharp, and it probably would not be worth trying to hit something at beyond 600 m.

The P-47 is limited in its range primarily by the divergence of its fire, and secondarily by the dispersion which means that even when hits are scored, a kill will not be guaranteed. Realistically, we can expect the pilot to be able to compensate a bit for the divergence problem, and while the fire won't be instantly lethal the dispersion means that he's still likely to hit and damage his target. (Note that barrel overheating limits firing duration, so he can't expect to use more than a fraction of his total ammunition load this way. Realistically, this is not really a limitation as the attacked pilot probably would see the tracers after a very few seconds and begin to evade.) An longer convergence range would improve long range firing capabilities, but historic combat experience obviously favoured short range fire.

The P-38 features a very accurate battery, and should be able to consistently score hits (admittedly on "sitting ducks", but these are a must for successful long-range attacks anyway :-) at up to 800 m, and with a bit of luck to 1000 m or more. Beyond 500 m, its fire will also be more effective than that of the P-47 due to the much higher density of the pattern. Add the Hispano, and you have a real long-range killer here :-)

Of course, pilot capabilities and "aim point wander" - the impossibility of keeping the crosshairs centered on the target - means that even in a situation where I have listed "100% hits" will not result in 100% hits. However, a tracking accuracy of 1 mil has been demonstrated by a highly trained fighter pilot during deflection gunnery tests, so the "ideal" situation above is not very far from the optimum human capabilities. Of course, a hastily trained wartime pilot might be very far from the expert I have just described :-)

Regards,

Henning (HoHun)

Offline Bruno

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Dispersion Angle for rapid fire WW2 aircraft guns
« Reply #20 on: November 04, 2005, 09:11:21 PM »
Quote
Verlaß Dich also nicht auf die Waffenstreuung - sie hilft Dir nicht, wenn Du falsch gezielt hast!


Do not rely on weapon dispersion - it will not help you, if you aim badly!

Page 14 Die Schiessfibel

Was nutzen all die Kugelspritzen,
Wenn sie nur in die Gegend blitzen!



Dispersion does not increase hit probability. A sporadic hit or hits, especially by heavy machine gun rounds, will be far less likely to bring down an aircraft then a well aimed concentrated burst. If you want to increase hit probability, and lethality, get in close and aim well...

Offline Squire

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Dispersion Angle for rapid fire WW2 aircraft guns
« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2005, 09:25:29 PM »
"If you want to increase hit probability, and lethality, get in close and aim well..."

Sums up air combat from 1915-1953.
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Offline Bruno

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Dispersion Angle for rapid fire WW2 aircraft guns
« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2005, 09:34:26 PM »
Ah heck, I didn't read Hohun's first post, he posted the exact same I did...


Just ignore it...:furious

Offline Tony Williams

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Dispersion Angle for rapid fire WW2 aircraft guns
« Reply #23 on: November 05, 2005, 12:16:05 AM »
From Flying Guns – World War 2: Development of Aircraft Guns, Ammunition and Installations 1933-45:

When more powerful armament was installed, advantages were again seen in some dispersion of fire. The strongest argument in favour was that very flew pilots were able to judge correctly the amount of lead required for deflection shooting. In May 1942 the RAF would again opt for a greater dispersion of fire to generate more hits.

Tony Williams: Military gun and ammunition website and discussion forum

Offline gripen

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Re: Re: Re: Dispersion Angle for rapid fire WW2 aircraft guns
« Reply #24 on: November 05, 2005, 04:22:42 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by HoHun

So let's have a look at three different batteries to estimate the long-range fire capabilities (against a fighter-sized target held perfectly stationary in the centre of the sight):


If one wants to show that dispersion gives no advantage, he/she uses perfect aiming for the analysis. At long range shooting the exact range is not known, merely aproximated by the pilot even in the case of the early gyroscopic sights. And the target is keeped in the centre of the sight (or slightly below) only in the cases when the planes have exactly same flight path or exactly opposite (directly behind or head on). In the all other cases various amount of lead is needed in long range shooting (in addition to drop of bullets due to gravity)

Basicly the advantage of the dispersion is caused by aiming error which is completely ignored in the HoHun's analysis. Infact this has nothing to do with the original subject of this thread ie amount of purpose built dispersion to increase probabbility of the hit due to aiming errors.

Quote
Originally posted by HoHun

Of course, pilot capabilities and "aim point wander" - the impossibility of keeping the crosshairs centered on the target - means that even in a situation where I have listed "100% hits" will not result in 100% hits. However, a tracking accuracy of 1 mil has been demonstrated by a highly trained fighter pilot during deflection gunnery tests, so the "ideal" situation above is not very far from the optimum human capabilities. Of course, a hastily trained wartime pilot might be very far from the expert I have just described :-)


Here we go again; in the deflection shooting there is no crosshairs to center to the target. And even in the case of the early gyroscopic sight, the range measurement was quite unaccurate regardless how accurately the the target was keeped in the sight.

Basicly there is allways some error and there is no reason to believe that error is evenly distributed around correct aiming point ie the error is probably allways systematical.

Quote
Originally posted by Bruno

Do not rely on weapon dispersion - it will not help you, if you aim badly!


In other words: Dispersion will help you if you aim good enough.

Quote
Originally quoted by Tony Williams

When more powerful armament was installed, advantages were again seen in some dispersion of fire. The strongest argument in favour was that very flew pilots were able to judge correctly the amount of lead required for deflection shooting. In May 1942 the RAF would again opt for a greater dispersion of fire to generate more hits.


That's quite rational, at short ranges some amount of dispersion does not make difference but at longer range some amount of dispersion will increase probability of the hit as well percentage of the hits due to aiming errors.

gripen

Offline beet1e

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Re: Re: Re: Dispersion Angle for rapid fire WW2 aircraft guns
« Reply #25 on: November 05, 2005, 04:31:26 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by HoHun
but even at 700 m about 80% of the fire will be on target.
If a gun could be aimed that accurately, then to hit a target such as a wing from the dead 6 position would require that the aircraft be aimed extremely accurately, by which I mean to within 0.02°. Deviation beyond that limit would result in a miss.
Quote
Dispersion does not increase hit probability.
I'd say it does, but it may not increase the bring down the target aircraft probability.

Offline gripen

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Re: Re: Re: Re: Dispersion Angle for rapid fire WW2 aircraft guns
« Reply #26 on: November 05, 2005, 05:01:11 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by beet1e
I'd say it does, but it may not increase the bring down the target aircraft probability.


That depends on aiming error; if the error is systematic as it probably is in the case of the deflection shooting, the dispersion will increase probability of the hit as well as percentage of the hits.

gripen

Offline HoHun

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Re: Re: Re: Re: Dispersion Angle for rapid fire WW2 aircraft guns
« Reply #27 on: November 05, 2005, 06:48:22 AM »
Hi Beet1e,

>>but even at 700 m about 80% of the fire will be on target.

>If a gun could be aimed that accurately, then to hit a target such as a wing from the dead 6 position would require that the aircraft be aimed extremely accurately, by which I mean to within 0.02°. Deviation beyond that limit would result in a miss.

I didn't say it was all on the wing :-) Due to the centreline mounting, the 75% dispersion circle will cover the target's fuselage at 700 m, and the extra 5% hits are from the outer 25% hits hitting wing roots and stabilizer.

Tracking accuracy achieved by a highly trainge pilot under good conditions has been proven to be 1 mil (ca. 0.057 degree). For the example, which was meant to illustrate the technical properties of the guns, I used 0 mils :-)

Name any aiming (in-)accuracy you consider realistic, and I will re-evaluate the example to show pilot influence.

Note that the requirement is to put the crosshairs smack in the middle of the target. I don't think there would be noticable difficulties with this, so I'll take your inaccuracy figure as random error :-)

Regards,

Henning (HoHun)

Offline HoHun

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Dispersion Angle for rapid fire WW2 aircraft guns
« Reply #28 on: November 05, 2005, 07:23:02 AM »
Hi Tony,

>When more powerful armament was installed, advantages were again seen in some dispersion of fire. The strongest argument in favour was that very flew pilots were able to judge correctly the amount of lead required for deflection shooting. In May 1942 the RAF would again opt for a greater dispersion of fire to generate more hits.

The firing setup the RAF boffins had in mind was a stable tracking shot with the target stationary in the sights, but the wrong amount of lead selected. The pilot was to push the button while keeping the target stationary, and if he was pulling just the right amount of wrong lead, half of the fire would hit the target.

To get this kind of results, you actually don't need an artificially enlarged pattern size, which will dimnish your firepower in other situations.

The standard piloting technique in deflection shots is NOT to have the target stationary in the sights, but to begin firing with the crosshairs just short of the correct deflection while pulling them through the (not accurately known) correct deflection to a position of excessive deflection.

A bit difficult to describe, but it's just the same as the RAF boffins' technique except for pulling back the stick a little to make the target slide through your sight.

(Of course, it's also possible to start with excessive lead and drop back a bit in the turn to run your fire backwards over the target.)

Dispersion on demand ;-)

Regards,

Henning (HoHun)

Offline straffo

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Dispersion Angle for rapid fire WW2 aircraft guns
« Reply #29 on: November 05, 2005, 10:13:42 AM »
Don't get me started on Gaussian distribution or I'll crush this thread with statistics !

<= Le statistician