I'd say the Axis won.
One thing I notice about these fast action set ups. It gives a distinct advantage to the defenders, especially if it pits heavily fuel loaded American iron against light weight Japanese planes in combat between bases in relatively close proximity,and also having a specific and known target. You'll almost invariably find Japanese fighters at 27K and up diving on the American planes as they cruise and climb slowly. Last night was no exception. As part of the lead group of P-38's, we circled back several times to stay close in front of the strung out bombers. When we were bounced, we were at 20-21K, with tanks on, at 180-200MPH. We were bounced by a string of Japanese fighters shallow diving from 25K to 27K. Not making excuses, just saying that when that happens, the escorts start out just trying to stay alive, and have no chance of really protecting anything but themselves, at least for a while. By that time, the defenders have time to get to the bombers.
That is just part of life when you have a fast action short time event, and there is little that can be done about it. Anything you might do will either prevent the action, or make the time frame considerably longer.