Arado Blitz Frame 2 Results

[Nomde]

Good Morning Ladies and Gents ~S~
Here is the breakdown of scoring for the Arado Blitz Frame 2 FSO:

Axis Target - City of Met was 98% Destroyed
Allied Target - City of Freiburg was 88% Destroyed

Axis Planes Destroyed - 995 Points
Allied Planes Destroyed - 685 Points
 
Axis Total Points 1342.90
Allied Total Points 1789.00

Allies Wins by 446.1

The number of planes available in Frame 2 is as follows:
Ar234 - 03
Me262 - 00
P47-N - 09
Tempest - 09

Allied loose no Fields.
Axis Loose Me262 Field

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    It appears the activation of formations changed the outcome of the event significantly.
    It would be interesting to see what the results would have been if the Ar234 were allowed to use formations. This wasn't allowed for this frame as historically the Arado only flew in small groups (I.E. 10 to 20 planes).

[Drano]

Originally posted by Nomde


    It appears the activation of formations changed the outcome of the event significantly.
 

LOL Ya think?! I dunno bro but I thought your initial design was just fine and didn't need any "fine tuning" because of what some people thought. I think it should have been allowed to play out and see what might happen in the course of the entire event, THEN pick it apart. What happened last night was a direct result of the changes. No doubt about it. It's skewed the last frame completely.

Frame 1 was, on both sides, well fought, well planned and wasn't a ridiculously one-sided slaughter. And that was from beginning to end of frame. Pretty much an even number of pilots in the air the entire frame. The axis won the frame yes, but it wasn't a blowout by any stretch of the imagination. Could have gone either way really. All that because of the way YOU designed your event. Sure COs have a lot to do with it but if its close and its well fought that's attibuted to the design IMO. You did a great job of that and that's why that happened in the first frame.

Frame 2 adjustments are made that shifted the advantage clearly to the allied side and it wasn't just the addition of formations but I'll start there.

Formations are one thing but if you count the total number of bombs per plane and the ammount of damage each individual bomber could inflict you've not made a slight adjustment if you compare the bomb loads of, say, a B-24 and an Ar-234. No comparison. Given the choice I'll take the B-24's bomb load over the 234's every time and twice on Sunday if I have to anhilate a field or city sized target. So there's that. The 234s are fast but not only have no defensive guns they don't have an arsenal of defensive guns so I don't know if you could exactly call that a wash either.

In addition, you also changed the number of targets from 4 to 3 because of pressure from some groups here. If you read my post in response to that after last week's frame--where I was trying to reason with folks about why you designed it that way-- you'd see that I agreed with the higher number because if you lowered it what happened last night would be the outcome. If you were gonna lower it to 3 they should have all been fields. As it was in last night's frame there was no great mystery as to which fields needed to be hit as it was in your initial design. Consequently, the axis have next to no jet aircraft for the last frame which kinda takes away--to put it mildly--from an event called "Arado 234 Blitz". Just my opinion of course. Can't say I didn't tell ya so.

Another observation was of the 234s getting to their target just fine last night but they were savagedly hacked down by the field and town ack. Last week I sent 234s to attack two fields, they got in and out once just fine. Only thing that brought them down--after a second strike btw-- were the Tempests--that were for the most part not gonna be there this week because of the damage we had inflicted on their fields. Please tell me you didn't make an adjustment to the ack as well.

Last night I saw a fairly even number of pilots with a good turnout overall at the beginning of the frame quickly turn into a route. My group of D-9s was able to keep it together for most of the frame with some good comms and good winging but it was only a matter of time before we got caught. Numbers got skewed very, very quickly if you were watching. I dunno about you but the frames where I'm trying to desperately avoid or running for my life from a mob or looking for something to shoot at the last hour or so if I'm on the other side of the coin are not good frames. That was pretty much last night.

The short of it, IMO changing your design in mid-event was a bad idea. Shoulda let it play out and then tweak it for next time.

Drano

[daddog]

In my scramble to get the orders out Monday night I forgot that in the web page you mentioned about our losing aircraft if we lost certain fields, but nothing about that was in my detailed orders. For future orders I would humbly suggest you put in the specific consequences of certain fields being destroyed. Orders should contain everything the Frame C.O. has to concern themselves with. I probably would have added more to defense if the consequences had been outlined in the orders.

I am sure I still would have been spanked, but maybe we would have the Me-262’s for Frame 3.

[Drano]

Originally posted by daddog
In my scramble to get the orders out Monday night I forgot that in the web page you mentioned about our losing aircraft if we lost certain fields, but nothing about that was in my detailed orders. For future orders I would humbly suggest you put in the specific consequences of certain fields being destroyed. Orders should contain everything the Frame C.O. has to concern themselves with. I probably would have added more to defense if the consequences had been outlined in the orders.

I am sure I still would have been spanked, but maybe we would have the Me-262’s for Frame 3.

It was out there. I always print this out to have handy when making up the orders--just in case of some such wrinkle.

From the current FSO setup page on the events site:

►          The number of the Jets and higher end Allied planes available in later Frames will be dependant on the percentage of the associated Airfield and Town destroyed. They won’t be dependant on the number of Aircraft shot down.



As an example:

►          If the Field and Town the Me262 uses to fly from is destroyed by 80% during the first Frame, the German’s will only be able to fly two during the Second Frame.



►          The Field and Town will be different for Frame 2, this way the Allies will have to target different areas.



►          If the new Field and Town is destroyed during the Second Frame by 70%, the German’s will only be able to fly three Me262's during the Third Frame.



►          If the Fields and Towns remain untouched, the German’s will be able to fly ten Me262's during the following Frame.

[daddog]

Right.

Never said it was not out there. I just said I think it should be in the orders too, it was not.

[Dace]

Drano, I appreciate your position, but in my observation of the score, it looks like the allies got the big points advantage from air to air rather than targets destroyed. So, I'm wondering what makes u think enabling of bombers had any effect on the outcome of the score? I mean, did the formations of bombers shoot down THAT MANY axis planes to skew the A2A numbers that bad? Now, if the score was out of balnace due to the destruction of ground targets, I could better understand your position, I'm just failing to grasp how you think formations skewed the event that much in the A2A department.

[Stampf]

Doesn't the enabling of formations free up more pilots to fly fighters?

[forHIM]

Looks like 15 bomber sorties for the allied 2nd frame vs 24 in the first.  # objects destroyed first frame: 51, number second: 171.  Looks like the 9 less bomber pilots scored more than 3 times the number of points than the first frame.  While it may not be a points significant item, it may have led to the disablement of the me262 and/or ar234s.

re: # of kills by the bombers:  frame 1: 10, frame 2: 6 including 2 friendlies.

it looks like the allies used the bombers to take out the jet bases as the primary role.  In which case the additional ordinance with formations easily helped take those bases down.

[FiLtH]

Originally posted by Stampf
Doesn't the enabling of formations free up more pilots to fly fighters?

  I wouldnt think so. Whether a pilot has one plane or 3 doesnt make much of an effect on what people fly.

[Krusty]

Agreed. You still have N slots for bombers. You still need N pilots for them. You might just get N*3 planes, but you still need a pilot in each one, and each pilot is more effective.


ForHIM, perhaps, but a single bomber can kill a FH as easily as a formation can, and with a large group (like allies used) they would still have shut down the field.

Not to mention the p51s with ord also helped finish off hangars. Even with formations the bombers couldn't shut it down by themselves. Pilot error, getting bounced on drop, etc, all play a part.

[Softail]

Originally posted by Drano


Another observation was of the 234s getting to their target just fine last night but they were savagedly hacked down by the field and town ack. Last week I sent 234s to attack two fields, they got in and out once just fine. Only thing that brought them down--after a second strike btw-- were the Tempests--that were for the most part not gonna be there this week because of the damage we had inflicted on their fields. Please tell me you didn't make an adjustment to the ack as well.

Drano

Last frame I flew a Tempest and got an assist on a 234.    They came in NOE and they were at max speed.  

This frame I flew the Spit XIV and almost got within range of a 234.  Unfortunately....just as I was about to shoot at him over A75....he dropped his ord on the base...and blew HIMSELF out of the sky.  

Why do you consider it is getting "savagely hacked down by field ack" when you send in your 234s in at 200 feet WITHOUT cover?    They flew over both the towns and the bases with the ack just firing away.

The other question you need to find the answer to is  "How many of your 234 pilots killed themselves because they were bombing on the deck?"  I witnessed one....it was very disappointing....I didn't even get a chance to get a kill on it.

I just don't get why you would send in a high-speed bomber with no air cover, one fixed mount rear gun and tell them to go NOE!   But thats just me.   Our squadron of Spit XIVs killed 3 of your 234's add the one that blew himself up and that totals 4.    So those 4 were not lost to "savage ack".

Softail

[Drano]

Originally posted by Dace
Drano, I appreciate your position, but in my observation of the score, it looks like the allies got the big points advantage from air to air rather than targets destroyed. So, I'm wondering what makes u think enabling of bombers had any effect on the outcome of the score? I mean, did the formations of bombers shoot down THAT MANY axis planes to skew the A2A numbers that bad? Now, if the score was out of balnace due to the destruction of ground targets, I could better understand your position, I'm just failing to grasp how you think formations skewed the event that much in the A2A department.

Simple. Frame 1 without formations and 4 objectives, jet bases protected for the most part. Frame 2 with formations and only 3 objectives, jet bases all but completely anhilated. Quite a difference. A difference apparantly not along the lines of a small tweak. A2A points were one thing but the protection of the jet bases in this event is most important as their damage determines the number of jets the axis has to work with in following frames. So you see it isn't just the score. That is the big difference in this event that has not been a factor in other events at least that I can remember. Its a wrinkle that hasn't been used before I believe. Now the axis side is down almost all of the aircraft that I think were supposed to be an important part of the event design. Now the allies have what ammounts to 2 full squads of high performance planes to work with where we have a total of 3 planes--and they're bombers with a very light load. I know this outcome was possible the whole time but I don't believe this was what was intended in the original design.

Not taking anything away from the allied escorts this frame. They did a stellar job. Prolly  one of the best jobs I've ever seen. Hats off to you!  My guys (only 4 Doras by then) got near the B-24s on the way out from their first run to 13 but couldn't really attack because of the 'scorts. I got a burst in on the buffs causing minor paint damage but had to break off as did the rest of us. We just got driven off by large numbers of fighters. We fought well and were lucky to get away alive to fight again. On the second run, which we found way, way out along the 9/10 line and reported it but couldn't get down to the bombers, again due to huge numbers of escorts. This was of course another factor that was different between frame 1 and frame 2. Escorts weren't as tight first frame and the allied bombers paid. But had they been as well escorted in frame 1 as this one they possibly wouldn't have done near as much damage to the fields with only a third of the eggs to work with. I mean there's damage and then there's total destruction! Then there's the focus on the only two fields in frame 2  instead of three in frame 1 (with one being a "dummy"). That further concentrated the damage.

A couple of seemingly minor tweaks (formations and number of objectives) seems to have caused a major change in the outcome from what I can see. As it was in frame 1, prior to any changes, and was borne out by the final score, that either side could have won that frame. This is how I think a good design should work. It should come down to CO's plan of action, good comms and good piloting. Obviously the changes made before frame 2 put the axis at a disadvantage regardless and now that will carry over to even further restrict their side in frame 3. It would take installation of some major "wonder weapons" for the axis to make a run of it now.

Drano

[daddog]

That is the big difference in this event that has not been a factor in other events at least that I can remember. Its a wrinkle that hasn't been used before I believe.

It has Drano. I wrote some myself in the first few years of FSO, (back then Tour of Duty). And like you say it adds a nice twist or flavor to FSO. Others have done so also.

I know we went over this in our e-mails we have traded, but I will put down my two cents in here to.

A couple of seemingly minor tweaks (formations and number of objectives) seems to have caused a major change in the outcome from what I can see.

IMHO you can’t jump to the conclusion that the formations and one less objective totally skewed the outcome of this FSO. I also noticed that the most objects destroyed in Frame 2 were by the 56th fighter group in P-47’s. Not the bomber formations. I really don’t think the bomber formations were a big factor in this. 171 objects destroyed and the bombers destroyed 32 of that 171 if I counted right. The Allies only used 12 bomber pilots. There are so many factors involved in a Frame that is reasonably balanced no one can even begin to predict the outcome. As I said in our e-mail you could run this frame 10 more times and come out with 10 different endings. I certainly could have put more coverage on the two air bases which in all likelihood changed what jets we would have in the 3rd frame.

ForHIM, perhaps, but a single bomber can kill a FH as easily as a formation can, and with a large group (like allies used) they would still have shut down the field.

I think your right, but only in part Krusty. Having those two extra bombers might make the difference in shutting down the field if the bombers are intercepted prior to or during their drop. If you have 10 single bombers lined up for a drop with each targeting a different object on the field and they are attacked by an equal number Fw190A8’s (all things being equal) ½ those bombers are gone after the first pass by the enemy fighters. That means ½ the objects will survive on the field. But if the bombers had formations it would not matter nearly as much. Losing a drone or even two you could still make a successful drop on your designated target with the bomber you have left. Now I am all for the bomber formations. I wanted the formations. I am just pointing out that having the formations can make a big difference whether a drop is successful or not if you have enemy fighters about.

Ya softail I saw some of those low 234’s myself and was wondering why they did what they did, but I was not in their shoes. I have no idea why they dove down and dived bombed like that. I expected them to level bomb and stay high.

It would take installation of some major "wonder weapons" for the axis to make a run of it now.

I agree there. With this particular plane set the Axis really can’t do much on the offensive. I personally enjoyed putting the Allies on the offensive in past FSO’s, upping the value of the bombers so if they lost a significant number they could lose the frame even if they successfully took down their targets.

[WxMan]

Originally posted by Drano
LOL Ya think?! I dunno bro but I thought your initial design was just fine and didn't need any "fine tuning" because of what some people thought. I think it should have been allowed to play out and see what might happen in the course of the entire event, THEN pick it apart. What happened last night was a direct result of the changes. No doubt about it. It's skewed the last frame completely.

Frame 1 was, on both sides, well fought, well planned and wasn't a ridiculously one-sided slaughter. And that was from beginning to end of frame. Pretty much an even number of pilots in the air the entire frame. The axis won the frame yes, but it wasn't a blowout by any stretch of the imagination. Could have gone either way really. All that because of the way YOU designed your event. Sure COs have a lot to do with it but if its close and its well fought that's attibuted to the design IMO. You did a great job of that and that's why that happened in the first frame.


Drano

Having been the CiC for the first frame, I didn't want to get involved with the discussion then as it would have been the appearance of sour grapes.

Drano, our plans for the first frame were just about a mirror image. We both concentrated a large percentage of our fighters (roughly 40+) to protect the high value bases.  While the Allied bombers and relavtivley small escorts to the Axis bases were savaged before or at their targets, the 234's that struck the Allied bases were nearly unescorted and did considerable damage due to their speed and attack strategy. On the two strikes you made, you lost less than half even though there were 30 to 40 fighters nearby.   In the first frame the Axis had a 2 to 1 fighter advantage at the jet bases and once the Allied escort was gone, you easily dispatched the bombers.

Had bomber formations been enabled for the first frame, I would have reduced the number of bomber pilots and added them as escorts. I'm not saying the outcome would have been significantly different, but more than one bomber would have made it to target.

Originally posted by Drano


Frame 2 adjustments are made that shifted the advantage clearly to the allied side and it wasn't just the addition of formations but I'll start there.

Formations are one thing but if you count the total number of bombs per plane and the ammount of damage each individual bomber could inflict you've not made a slight adjustment if you compare the bomb loads of, say, a B-24 and an Ar-234. No comparison. Given the choice I'll take the B-24's bomb load over the 234's every time and twice on Sunday if I have to anhilate a field or city sized target. So there's that. The 234s are fast but not only have no defensive guns they don't have an arsenal of defensive guns so I don't know if you could exactly call that a wash either.

Drano

The defense and offense that the Aroda has is it speed. The squadron that you chose to fly them in the first frame proved that. Even though their bomb load is lighter than a B-24, their speed enabled them to get in, then out, and then strike a second time.  I believe had any of the B24's survived, the distance to the targets deep in Axis territory would have precluded a second strike.  I also believe that the ordnance allocated to drop on the Axis bases was nearly identical to the first frame, just the number of pilots allocated to that job was reduced.

Originally posted by Drano


In addition, you also changed the number of targets from 4 to 3 because of pressure from some groups here. If you read my post in response to that after last week's frame--where I was trying to reason with folks about why you designed it that way-- you'd see that I agreed with the higher number because if you lowered it what happened last night would be the outcome. If you were gonna lower it to 3 they should have all been fields. As it was in last night's frame there was no great mystery as to which fields needed to be hit as it was in your initial design.

Drano

This also surprised me a bit and I thought it was unesscary. As Drano noted it took the guess work out of which bases were high priority. However I thought it would work to the Axis advantage allowing them even more fighters to defend those bases.

What surprised me more, was that the distance to targets for both sides were much closer.  In the first frame, the distance to the Axis jet bases were much farther. The bombers that attacked were still climbing and were well below their target altitude and speed, making them even easier fodder for the Axis.  This frame gave the Allied bombers a chance to get to altitude to commence their attack before the T+60 deadline.  

Originally posted by Drano

The short of it, IMO changing your design in mid-event was a bad idea. Shoulda let it play out and then tweak it for next time.

Drano

I respectfully disagree. Two out of the three changes I mentioned were needed to give the Allied bombers a fair chance. As Daddog noted, the majority of damage done to the Axis bases and City was due to fighters and fighter bombers. He also admitted that due to an oversight on his part allowed the destruction of those two bases and I believe led to many of Drano's complaints.

[Nomde]

Gentlemen ~S~
    Thank you for the responses on the Arado FSO. I've been reading the posts with interest, and am looking at various setups to create an event everyone can enjoy.

    Please bear with me as I am new to creating these events, and there are alot of variables which can be adjusted. And as you can see, adjusting a minor setting can have dramatic effects