China pushing Japan again.

[Rich46yo]

"Martial"? Lol they have avoided every fight since 1945 and spend a lousy 1% of their GNP on defense, "we spend about 5%", so exactly how are they "martial"?

[Gman]

I said that specifically to compare their lack of military and spending on defense with their cultural interests.  Every hobby shop there is filled with military stuff, airsoft toy guys were huge there, their video and board games were predominantly about military and fighting.  In their culture having real firearms and committing violent acts is a major taboo still, yet they flock to toys and simulations of such things like geese.   It's a paradox.  My point was and is that because of this,  don't assume Japan is a nation of polite little people with no capability for violence and war based solely on their standing military.

[GScholz]

Why?  There are F-22's in Japan that are far better aircraft...

American F-22s yes.

[Karnak]

"Martial"? Lol they have avoided every fight since 1945 and spend a lousy 1% of their GNP on defense, "we spend about 5%", so exactly how are they "martial"?

We wrote that into their constitution.  We're hardly in a place to complain about it.

Japan has considered changing that, but there is a lot of opposition and concern about international perception because of WWII.

That said, if China starts pushing on Japan itself none of that will matter.  I can't say the Senkaku islands will do it, but if China pushes for Okinawa like they have hinted at I can't see Japan being passive about it.

[Nath[BDP]]

Bout time China steps up.  What are huge nations for, if not for international posturing.

[zack1234]

Who are the biggest investors in China?

Not one American will answer that question

[Tank-Ace]

We wrote that into their constitution.  We're hardly in a place to complain about it.

Japan has considered changing that, but there is a lot of opposition and concern about international perception because of WWII.

That said, if China starts pushing on Japan itself none of that will matter.  I can't say the Senkaku islands will do it, but if China pushes for Okinawa like they have hinted at I can't see Japan being passive about it.

The site of the last major battle of WWII, and IIRC, the first of their inhabited home islands to be captured by US forces? Not a chance in hell they'll take that lying down.


I will say that in a short-term conflict, I think the balance heavily favors Japan. While China may be getting there, Japan had already gotten there by 1904. And China quite obviously doesn't know just how strong it is (and unfortunately, neither does anyone else); shes flexing her muscles, trying to get a feel for her strength. But a side effect of that is that any military action will be slower, clumsier, because really it will be the first time for them as a modern military.

But if China decides she really wants that hunk of rock, she can just crush the Japanese with weight of numbers, overwhelm them strategically.

[Gman]

she can just crush the Japanese with weight of numbers, overwhelm them strategically.
   

Defend that statement.  You do realize that there is this large thing called the ocean separating the two nations, right?  While everyone knows the Chinese have a massive, massive advantage in the numbers of soldiers under arms, the fact is actually getting them to where they need to fight is the problem.  This is one of the primary reasons Taiwan is still Taiwan, that and the fact that the Chinese are moving slow on that front as well, but they've made no bones about stating that they consider it a "rogue" state that needs to be brought back into line.

The Chinese still lack a large amphibious capability, but they are working on that front as well.  That leaves only invasion of disputed territory by air, and right now the balance of power is on the side of Japan and Taiwan in terms of the distances and equipment, and even mission involved.  The only way China could hope to successfully put boots on the ground would be massive strikes versus Japanese air bases, air bases with a lot of Americans and American aircraft in addition to Japanese around.  China would have to defeat the air forces, or at least get and maintain some level of air superiority prior to chancing putting a bunch of fat targets like paratroop filled cargo planes in the area.  As I said, the naval operations would be even tougher for China, as they would have to get by the Japanese diesel/electric subs that would be sortied and put in place like little mobile mine fields right in the way of their troop ships, not to mention the air power and surface ships that would have to be contended with.

If there was a giant land bridge between China and the disputed islands, or even Taiwan or Japan itself, then yes, I would agree with Tank Ace that China could use its massive advantage in numbers, and growing parity in technology of its land forces in order to sweep anything aside that got in its way.  Thankfully geography didn't cooperate with their grand ambitions.  Honestly, if I was Russian I would be more concerned about the Chinese army than the Japanese need to be.  Sharing a large common border with huge, huge vast areas that are great for mechanized forces must keep the Russian military planners and defense staff up at nights worrying.  India is already saturated with people and eats through much of its own resources, while China sees Russia a large unexploited area ripe for the taking.  There's just that little matter of the 30,000 nuclear warheads the Russians still have stopping them right now.

The world is a strange place, and the Pacific theater is going to be a very interesting area in the next couple of decades.

[Tank-Ace]

China has more aircraft than Japan can effectively combat. Even the US would be hard pressed to stop a couple hundred fighters before they smashed up whatever they came to smash up.

Granted it would take a bit of work, logistically speaking, but they could get a fair sized horde airborne.





As to the rest, I'd bet on Russia in a scrap with China. Whatever else you say about them, the Russians have shown they're damn tough, and willing willing to adopt a scorched earth policy. Even if China were to invade, and say they had developed a fool proof missile shield, I'd bet that they end up bloodying their noses over what would become the most irradiated, inhospitable land on the face of the earth the instant the bulk of Russian forces can escape the blast radius of a bunch of hidden remote detonated nuclear warheads.

I wouldn't be overly surprised if the same thing were to happen should they somehow mound a land invasion of Japan.



But more than the Pacific Theater, I'm really looking for the second arms race between the US and China. I think the US has the advantage in that area, given that we're not actively trying to antagonize all of our neighbors/allies, and have a far more developed space program (space being the most logical place to put weapons).

[Scherf]

Hmm, if you think things can get childish on these boards, it's nothing compared to the nastiness in places like YouTube between all three of China, Korea and Japan. I mean, really, really petty, mean-spirited childishness.

The Japanese are supposed to be the grown-ups in all of this, but their current government is even more block-headed than is normally the case. I still don't see things kicking off in earnest though.

[Gman]

Tank Ace, numbers are pretty even fighter wise, and that's not including the US fighters in Japan.  Not to mention quality, 200 of Japan's fighters are very advanced versions of the F15, and nearly 100 of them the F2, similar to the F16 in capability.  Even the 80 or so F4 Phantoms still have an excellent modern radar and an even better A2A missile than the Aim120, with Mach 5 speed and its own mini AESA radar seeker, and 120+range.  That's nearly 400 very, very capable fighters supported by even better AWACS aircraft than what NATO typically uses.

Japan's AEW capability is excellent as well, and although they have a small tanker force, they are well practiced and trained in employing this asset.  Also, it isn't just simple numbers, China will have to be able to actually GET the fighters to where they are needed and keep them there.  Looking at the map, the Chinese will have to stage WAY out there if they wanted to actually come out and make trouble with their fighters.  They would be at the edge of their fuel envelope with most of their types, and not be able to maneuver about the battle space at will, that's for certain.   The J10 are pretty short range fighters, and without massive, massive tanker support, wouldn't be able to stage out that far, and even if they can, staying out there for long and doing anything is a big problem for them.  Again, that large ocean thing in the way,  This isn't Aces High where there are two enemy airfields within easy striking range, it's the real big world of the Pacific.  It's this reason that China is getting into the carrier business, and quickly, as the distances in the region are obviously vast, and the only other option for projecting air power than CVN's is to actually take new territory with existing runways, or build your own.  The world is out of free areas to build air bases that are up for the taking in the Pacific, which is really what this is all about in the first place, right.

[Butcher]

I have no idea on their tanking, radar support, and ESM support capabilities in practice, just that they have the aircraft to do it.  I'm sure they have been practicing this as well, again, a lot of good information in those US defense department computers that have been compromised by spies, at least according to the media.  I know Mace was eluding a while back that China had slipped guys into the US Navy as enlisted men in order to learn and observe everything about CVN operations, and that China had actual copies of all the MANOPS for various things about operating on carriers.  They seem to be learning very fast in that department with their first CVN, and are building more of these as well.  

It'll be interesting to see how the Chinese Navy plays into this new "area" they are claiming.   and deal with.  

Believe it or not China does field decent in the Tank and Radar support department. When the Gulf war happened the Chinese realized the Type 90 (which was mostly used by the Iraqi's) were blown to bacon bits, the Chinese really wanted to dig and upgrade its tanks. While its not going to stand up to an M1A1, I wouldn't consider it a knock out punch like the Iraqi tanks were in comparison. One thing China does have is mobility, recently due to the unrest over North Korea - my wife's family who visit china once told me how an entire armored division rolled past her enroute to the north korean border. It was only a drill, but fact they could pack up and move an armored division is far better then they were a few years ago.
Most of their Radar support comes from buying Russian crap and upgrading it, I know currently in service they have quite a few 3rd generation soviet anti aircraft missiles in its stock, very few are 4th generation that I know of (most are still prototypes).
Its really hard to say where china stands at this point - the battle harden iraqi veterans got smashed pretty hard by pure technology in the gulf war, Its tough to say how the chinese Armor/aircraft would play a role in an Asian conflict.
Against Japan? The Japanese have a better airforce - but would lack in every other department to the numbers china can put up, same with Taiwan and everyone else in the area.

I enjoy reading Defense weekly, one senior military analyst put the Chinese at a victory in nearly every scenario conflict in the entire asian theater. He felt if the Chinese push even after a few losses, they would win by arbitration, however if its a small tactical engagement - china would probably lose on an overall scale.
Given they are setting new boundaries, they probably feel confident they can expand and even if provoked are willing to defend themselves. This is bad news for the united states and Japan in my opinion, considering the new boundary - its almost easily identified as a "provoke" to the situation.

If anyone hasn't noticed, its only been in the past 20 years china has started getting aggressive in its foreign policy and expanding, considering how many new toys they have coming out of prototype stages, I would say its time to start worrying.

Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Taiwan need to get out of Nato and form its own "Screw china" group or they are going to end up being taken over because we all know NATO is simply going to send a strongly worded letter because nobody can afford a conflict right now especially nato.

 

[BoilerDown]

China has been stupid in sitting out recent UN chances to test their military strength... Afghanistan, Iraq, etc.  Every "western" power is quite tested, but China is untested because they keep sitting out.  All they have to do is go along with the USA the next time there's a "Coalition of the Willing", and they can get the experience they need.  Hopefully it will be a while before the next "event", but when the next event does occur, China would be well served to participate.

[MrRiplEy[H]]

China has been stupid in sitting out recent UN chances to test their military strength... Afghanistan, Iraq, etc.  Every "western" power is quite tested, but China is untested because they keep sitting out.  All they have to do is go along with the USA the next time there's a "Coalition of the Willing", and they can get the experience they need.  Hopefully it will be a while before the next "event", but when the next event does occur, China would be well served to participate.

Yes they've been stupid accumulating economic power and surpassing most rivals at it all the while the enemy is wasting mega loads of resources fighting battles overseas lol. They are very smart in staying out of wars so far, historically speaking the nations that have managed to do that have prospered economically. They can sell while war going countries blow their budget in spending.

Think about 60 dollar a piece Haliburton disposable dinner trays in Iraq. Even though Cheney and his buddies rip the most profit out of it (ripping off your nation in process), even those probably get shipped directly from China.

[zack1234]

Hmm, if you think things can get childish on these boards, it's nothing compared to the nastiness in places like YouTube between all three of China, Korea and Japan. I mean, really, really petty, mean-spirited childishness.

The Japanese are supposed to be the grown-ups in all of this, but their current government is even more block-headed than is normally the case. I still don't see things kicking off in earnest though.

They will at war in 2 years time

Ripley a US investment company owns the chinese factory that makes those dinner trays