The remarkable airplane that failed.

[Rich46yo]

Seems to me you think Airbus should have sold thousands of A380s by now. Boeing have sold 1,503 B747's of all models including freighters during the last half century since it was introduced. An average of about 30 per year.

Nope. From the beginning I said the 380 wouldnt sell well. When I saw the profit margins of the 2 engined wide bodys, their range, their carrying capacity, and the incredible performance and specs of the GE90 family of turbo fans I thought years ago the age of the 4 engined Queens was over. Yesterday I toured a 787-8 that had every seat filled and was about to fly 1/2 across the world to Bejing, and do so very economically. Now if that same flight had a A380 assigned to it it would lose money. "Cost per seat" is the only thing that matters in civil aviation. Keep the airplanes in the air making money and keep the seats filled. This is much easier done with a 2 engined wide body, and done cheaper, then a Jumbo.

Remember back when the 747 was the Queen it was when 2 engined passenger planes didnt have the engine power or reliability to get ETOPS clearance on long hauls, most of all over water. If not for this the 3 engine TriStar and DC10s never would have been built. So for decades the 747 owned the long haul routes and made a ton of dough for the airlines. Now these wide body 2 engined aircraft easily get at least 3 hours ETOPS, which basically means they are allowed to fly 180 to 240 mins from the nearest airport cause their engines are so dependable and they can safely fly that far if only one of them works.

So why spend the money on four of them?

[PR3D4TOR]

You're forgetting the essential point about the A380: It's a hub-to-hub plane. The big hubs around the world have limited slots available. You're not going to get two or three 787's into London or Tokyo on one day. An airline is lucky to get one single slot. The only way to increase capacity on your single or very limited number of slots at big international hubs is to increase the number of PAX per plane. That's why Emirates have invested so heavily into the A380, because they primarily do hub-to-hub international flights. They've even gone so far as to say that if Airbus makes an A380 Evo they'll replace their whole fleet of older A380's.

[Rich46yo]

Yes that WAS the essential point of the A380. The entire idea behind the design. Heres the problem however.

The entire dilema the A380 was supposed to ease it ended up making worse because of its size. 1, the thing is so big it taxi's like a beached whale and slows down ALL of the airports operations due to its stumbling around while taxi'ing. 2, Its so big it creates a very large air vortex that needs many minutes for the air in the runway path to calm down before the next airplane in the slot can take its place and land and/or take off. Maybe you havnt seen exactly what it takes to get a 747 in the air, or down to the gate, but I have. The A380 multiplys that by a factor of "X". All of which costs both the air ports and the air lines money because the extra seats it actually is able to fill isnt much more then the standard wide bodys.

Ive sat there watching the busiest airport in the world amazed such a complex technological dance can be controlled safely with so many machines in play. The 380 slows that dance to the point of distraction, and even worse, financial loss. Even in the huge Hubs the congestion it was designed to ease it actually ends up increasing. Life is cruel and in civil aviation the $$ is kind no matter what you call it. The 380 is actually only making money in high traffic regional routes where they can pack em in like sardines. In the Hub to hub routes, the ones it was designed for, its a failure. Even tho it has met or exceeded everything the design could be asked for.

The Emirates invested heavily in it cause they Loved the bling. And the are the first, the only, and the last, investing heavily in it cause they can only make money in it flying 800 Pilgrims to the Haj. They just ordered another 150 777's http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/09/us-boeing-orders-idUSKBN0FE0QS20140709 The largest wide body order ever I believe. As for the 380 they are the only ones left on the ship, everyone is is canceling.

You're forgetting the essential point about the A380: It's a hub-to-hub plane. The big hubs around the world have limited slots available. You're not going to get two or three 787's into London or Tokyo on one day. An airline is lucky to get one single slot. The only way to increase capacity on your single or very limited number of slots at big international hubs is to increase the number of PAX per plane. That's why Emirates have invested so heavily into the A380, because they primarily do hub-to-hub international flights. They've even gone so far as to say that if Airbus makes an A380 Evo they'll replace their whole fleet of older A380's.

Heres a big Hub. Ive seen planes lined up like on a highway. Both on the ground and in the air coming in, every minute or two. Every runway either launching or receiving. And they dont like 4 engined gas hogs creating air vortex's that takes 10 mins to clear no matter what the bling and certainly not for 50 extra passengers.

[craz07]

no two ways around it, A380 = Fail

[Rich46yo]

no two ways around it, A380 = Fail

I dont like to call it a "fail". The design and designers, the factory, didnt "fail". AirBus exec's failed. Every new design is a roll of the dice but to make such a bad call on the industry's future is not only a "fail" but bad luck too. And to make it worse they are coming to the gate late with the 350 cause of this super Jumbo.

[Zimme83]

Some say that it was launched a decade to early. Some of the major hubs, especially in Asia will prob need a plane like the 380 in the future to maximize the capacity. I can understand that US hubs with the bulk of the traffic consisting of regional jets in the 100-200 pax class have  problem when a 380 shows up. But in Dubai for ex, with most traffic being wide bodies like the 777, a 380 is less of a problem.

[Zimme83]

On the economic side this give some perspective on the 380: http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/boeing-787-unit-loss-declines-but-deferred-costs-rise-411502/

[PR3D4TOR]

Yes both the 787 and A380 are expected to reach unit break-even this year. Neither are even close to breaking even on the whole program though.

[PR3D4TOR]

As for the 380 they are the only ones left on the ship, everyone is is canceling.

It's when you say blatantly false things like that I start thinking you're not entirely sincere. At least 17 airlines have ordered the A380.

[Rich46yo]

It's when you say blatantly false things like that I start thinking you're not entirely sincere. At least 17 airlines have ordered the A380.

(Image removed from quote.)

I get tired of doing research for others. http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/28/airbus-a380-future-in-doubt http://www.wsj.com/articles/skymark-in-talks-to-cancel-airbus-order-1406603497

Other airlines are deferring. Deferring orders means you dont take/pay for the finished air craft. Maybe they will take them at a big discount, maybe they wont even take them and let the courts fight it out. Either way 318 orders out of a needed 1,200 equals 882 orders short.

Airbus Group NV raised the prospect of discontinuing its A380 superjumbo as soon as 2018, the first admission that it may have misjudged the market for the double-decker after failing to find a single airline buyer this year.

While Airbus will break even on the plane in 2015, 2016 and 2017, that outlook doesn’t hold for 2018, forcing the company to either offer new engines to make the A380 more attractive or discontinue the program, Chief Financial Officer Harald Wilhelm told investors at a meeting in London today.

In its seventh year in operation, the aircraft that cost $25 billion to develop threatens to become a costly misstep. While popular with travelers, most carriers prefer smaller twin-jet models that are more fuel efficient and can access more airports. Emirates is the only stand-out sponsor, having ordered 140 units, while other airlines have either backed off or are struggling to fill the two decks of the jumbo.

Airbus Group NV raised the prospect of discontinuing its A380 superjumbo as soon as 2018, the first admission that it may have misjudged the market for the double-decker after failing to find a single airline buyer this year.

While Airbus will break even on the plane in 2015, 2016 and 2017, that outlook doesn’t hold for 2018, forcing the company to either offer new engines to make the A380 more attractive or discontinue the program, Chief Financial Officer Harald Wilhelm told investors at a meeting in London today.

In its seventh year in operation, the aircraft that cost $25 billion to develop threatens to become a costly misstep. While popular with travelers, most carriers prefer smaller twin-jet models that are more fuel efficient and can access more airports. Emirates is the only stand-out sponsor, having ordered 140 units, while other airlines have either backed off or are struggling to fill the two decks of the jumbo.[/quote] http://onemileatatime.boardingarea.com/2014/12/11/airbus-a380-production-end-emirates-pissed/

[PR3D4TOR]

Skymark is not even on the list I posted. And you keep posting suspect articles from last year that say nothing conclusive, only rumors and negative spin. I'm left wondering why you believe it and why you care enough to post about it.

[Karnak]

Well, some direct feedback. My wife is on Emirates flight 212 as I write this.  It took off from Houston at 21:09 on 4/27 and should be arriving in Dubai in the next couple of hours, whereupon she will take Emirates flight 500, also an A380, on a ~3 hour flight from Dubai to Mumbai.  I spoke with her after she boarded and she said that it was huge, had much more leg room and that it was almost empty.  She estimated 150 passengers on board.  I can't imagine that 150 passengers will be enough for a 15.5 hour A380 flight to break even.

That said, we don't know how many passengers were on board on its Dubai to Houston leg of the journey.  A full plane on that leg could have made it overall worth it with the passenger load on the return trip that has to be flown anyways just adding more on top of it.

[PR3D4TOR]

Emirates is the world's largest international airline. They didn't do that by losing money.

“The A380 is a passenger magnet. We operate five a day from Dubai to London’s Heathrow and they are 95 per cent full,”

http://australianaviation.com.au/2014/12/airlines-need-the-a380-says-emirates-boss/

[PR3D4TOR]

January 2015 Bloomberg interview with Tim Clark.

[Karnak]

My wife says that on Emirates flight 500 from Dubai to Mumbai today the A380 was nearly 100% full.