Stock markets doom !

[Brooke]

On page 11and again on page 13 the cost of the bridge is put at $22.5M (1963 $).  And as you can see, it does not include “bridge plus other stuff”.  It is just the bridge.   Page 14: The total construction price (which includes the construction costs of the “other stuff”) was $63.7M.  When you add in the right of way the cost is $89.5M.

The old 520 project including building a large amount of freeway system that is not being rebuilt for the new 520.  The equivalent of what is being rebuilt today in the old project, as far as I could tell, was the $21M part. 

you might say that it is 10 times as expensive.

I would also say that 10 times more expensive is still egregious.

[Brooke]

BTW: I do not know what your thoughts are, but do you think these columns are going to stand much of a chance in an earthquake or bad storm?  (I know that this is the current West Approach, but it illustrates the point)

(Image removed from quote.)

I think that picture was after a barge collided with the bridge in 2006, but who knows?  The WSDOT site doesn't elaborate other than to say it was "damaged".

My argument isn't need for repair or replacement.  It is this:  it cost $x in today's dollars originally, now it costs $25x (or in your calculation $10x) in today's dollars.  I am astonished that voters are so clueless as to fall for that, but they do.

[Rolex]

Because it an iBridge. An iBridge 2.0 with version 8.21 OS and duel flim flam underbelly fans.

[Ripsnort]

I think that picture was after a barge collided with the bridge in 2006, but who knows?  The WSDOT site doesn't elaborate other than to say it was "damaged".

My argument isn't need for repair or replacement.  It is this:  it cost $x in today's dollars originally, now it costs $25x (or in your calculation $10x) in today's dollars.  I am astonished that voters are so clueless as to fall for that, but they do.

1/2 the voters since 1980 are transplanted Californians. I'm not surprised.

[Meatwad]

Because it an iBridge. An iBridge 2.0 with version 8.21 OS and duel flim flam underbelly fans.

Some people would actually believe that too

[Brooke]

Is it time to party like it's 1999?



This is a graph of a predictor of stock market performance over the next 10 years (in blue) and the actual stock market performance over the next 10 years (in red).  It is sort of like the Shiller PE ratio, but a metric that works better in the view of Hussman.  From the graph, it looks like it does a pretty good job.

Our current level is about what it was in 1999, with 1 year to go before the dot-com crash.

One thing, though:  today's financial environment is (in my view) way outside the bounds of anything in history (with monetary base, excess reserves at the Fed, Fed balance sheet, and interest rates waaaaaaaaay outside the bounds of anything in history).  So, who knows if any previously excellent financial predictors are still applicable.

[NatCigg]

1/2 the voters since 1980 are transplanted Californians. I'm not surprised.

  remember when the west was tough and resource utilization benefited the working man.  now the sky is falling the woods are rotting and a standard home cost 400,000 lol Californians . PS don't forget the new yorker 

[Brooke]

For those who have interest in highly contrarian bets.

If things that have been completely crushed pique your interest as possible contrarian buys, here are a couple.  Keep in mind that it's not always the case that it's darkest before the dawn, as sometimes things are dark but then proceed to be completely black.

^HUI is an index of stocks of gold miners.  It is at levels that were seen in 1998 when gold was at $300/oz.  There is an ETF that tracks it -- GDX.  It is at 20% of its 2011 peak.  Gold and silver might go lower, of course, but it won't go to zero.

Coal companies BTU and ACI are at, respectively, 1.6% and 0.5% of their peaks.  Among just problems in general for coal, ACI has debt problems, and BTU might have union/pension problems.  These stocks could go to zero.  There are other coal companies, too, all having been crushed.

[Brooke]

remember when the west was tough and resource utilization benefited the working man.  now the sky is falling the woods are rotting and a standard home cost 400,000 lol Californians . PS don't forget the new yorker 

Or, if you want to go more upscale, this one in Palo Alto is only $3.4 million:

[Brooke]

By the way, with respect to coal, that play seems very risky to me.  I'm not sure it's even yet a good time to gamble on them.  If the economy keeps declining, so will they.

I just keep an eye on them in case sometime in the future feels right to try a little.

GDX, though, I have bought some of.  I'm not confident that now is a bottom -- I think just that there is a larger potential to upside than what I think might be the drawdown from here.

[CptTrips]

By the way, with respect to coal, that play seems very risky to me.  I'm not sure it's even yet a good time to gamble on them.  If the economy keeps declining, so will they.

I just keep an eye on them in case sometime in the future feels right to try a little.

GDX, though, I have bought some of.  I'm not confident that now is a bottom -- I think just that there is a larger potential to upside than what I think might be the drawdown from here.

I'm skeptical on coal.  We have too much natural gas.  Long term pressure is going to be against coal.
I'm skeptical on gold.  I think we are heading to another deflationary collapse.  Gold is a much better investment in an inflationary spiral.

Markets are very volatile right now.  It kinda reminds me of how airflow over a wing becomes turbulent after it exceeds its critical angle of attack.  The airflow becomes "nonlinear" and stops producing lift.  Then gravity  takes over.

Nothing but bad stuff ahead too.  Markets are going to get a lot of triggers.  Maybe one will trip off the big one.

Government shut down in Oct.
4th quarter fund tax sell-off (window-dressing)
Rate hike possible in Dec.
 
A big one nobody is talking about, in July all those Chinese major stockholders (>5% shares) were locked in and not allowed to sell.  They unlock in Dec.  What they do could end up being the Black Swan.

And then in 2016 we have the election.  I'm sure a President Sanders or Trump would sooth the markets.    That was an economic comment, not political.

I think if DJIA falls below 16000, that is the trip wire.  The trend will then become clear to all and begin a feedback loop.

Wab

[Brooke]

I'm skeptical on coal.  We have too much natural gas.  Long term pressure is going to be against coal.

I'm interested only because it is down so very far, but it can still continue down a lot.  I'm just watching it.

I'm skeptical on gold.  I think we are heading to another deflationary collapse.  Gold is a much better investment in an inflationary spiral.

I agree, but currently I think there's a risk of stocks crashing, then bonds crashing (bonds being the biggest bubble of all time), then currencies having problems.  Gold and silver will perhaps go down in the first of those three events, then up in the 2nd, and up a lot in the 3rd.  But I'm not confident on the timing of these events, and so gold/silver is in there a bit as diversification vs. cash and as insurance.  Of course, I could also be completely wrong on these events happening, too.

Markets are very volatile right now.  It kinda reminds me of how airflow over a wing becomes turbulent after it exceeds its critical angle of attack.  The airflow becomes "nonlinear" and stops producing lift.  Then gravity  takes over.

I feel the same way.  The Fed has maneuvered the plane into extreme slow flight conditions and is now at full throttle with the stick all the way back.  The stall horn is blaring, strong buffetting is starting, and Keynsian school of flying says, in conditions like this, push harder on the throttle and pull harder on the stick.

[CptTrips]

Whomp!  There it is!

We just broke djia 16000. 

If we can hold that this week, we're in a whole new territory.  Major psychological threshold.

-Wab

[DmonSlyr]

Whomp!  There it is!

We just broke djia 16000. 

If we can hold that this week, we're in a whole new territory.  Major psychological threshold.

-Wab

I'm down 36%

Poop!

Great learning experience I guess.

[Brooke]

We just broke djia 16000. 

But, it closed at 16001.89.  So . . . time to BTFD? 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0akBdQa55b4