Lesson learned: Keep practicing and expect the unexpected, also.
Actually, I was going to say that you might have expected this.
Always expect an opponent to try to pull his nose onto you at every merge, if he can. Had you come into that first merge
expecting the HO, you could have prepared for that with a little vertical or horizontal separation. Had you expected and avoided the HO, you would have owned the fight from there.
By the way, I am not pointing this out as criticism, as it was hard to tell when exactly he was pointing at you. However, I wanted to make a point about SA. That
with a little Situational Awareness thinking, you can "anticipate an expected move" based on what the enemy has just done previously.In the case of your film, let's look at what you know coming into the fight and how to employ that information:
1) He just dove from a few thousand feet, shot the radar and extended low out of the ack.
2) Given that he just dove from several thousand feet and is in a Spit XVI, he is fast.
3) Fast means he has some energy, and energy means some maneuvering options.
4) He is on the deck (low), so only some maneuvers are available. (He can't split-S!)
5) You are 1v1 and near your own base, so additional immediate or unseen threats are unlikely (you should know how many cons are in the area, as the dar just went down)
6) He was porking the base and seemed to ignore the threat of your presence, so he may not be the "dogfighting type" (the last part of this is an assumption, or possibility, but I think a reasonable one).
You know all these things coming into the fight, without really having to think about them. Most importantly, they tell you a lot about what can and should happen next. Yes, he could go into a zoom climb, but why would he do that? You were higher, so you'll easily catch him and kill him. Assuming he knows you're there, he's far more likely to try to turn into you and put his nose on you (again, a reasonable assumption to anticipate this for a "non-dogfighting type" opponent at a disadvantage).
So, the next thought process in the SA analysis is: "Do I need to HO him? Do I have other options? Do I have time to kill him in a couple passes, rather than joust him on the first pass?" Given that you are next to your own base and don't have any other nearby threats, you have time to maneuver with him. No need to go for the first pass kill. So, set up for HO-avoidance, be ready for him to turn, and know you can easily kill him after his first turn.
This brings me to my overall point.
I think many players fall victim to trying to kill everything in one pass. There are times when that is necessary, but there are many more times when it is not (as is the case in your film). When I was taught virtual dogfighting, I was taught to approach an offensive fight (with advantage) in 3 steps:
1) Assess their Energy and Awareness. How the con reacts to you on the first merge will usually tell you these two things. Think of the first merge as "feeling the con out" and seeing how he reacts. If he doesn't react at all? Great, you're shooting him and he's dead (he failed his awareness test!) If he does he react, his first maneuver can then tell you a lot. He pulled hard for the HO? Great, he bled E and is probably going to be an easy kill. He did a hard, flat break turn away? Great, he bled E, but now I have to make a vertical turn and get back inside his turn circle. He used a Barrel Roll Defense or S-break and tried to reverse me? Great, I can spiral up and set up my next move... and I may be in for a good fight!
2) Maintain an Energy Advantage then convert to an Angles advantage (or shot). In your film, if you force the opponent to miss their opening HO attempt, you hold all the cards. He sold out a lot of energy for that first shot, so now his options decrease and yours increase. Now use your Energy advantage to set up shots (lead angles) and if they are not there (the enemy can avoid), then continue to maintain E or gain position until you have the shot. This is the art of ACM and the most fun aspect of virtual flying in my opinion.
3) Take the Kill Shot when it's there. This means you have positioned for a shot that he can't avoid. (He also can't shoot back at you!). This could be on the second merge with a deflection shot or after several merges wearing him down and possibly saddling up for the shot. They key is you are shooting when you expect to hit him, he can't avoid and he can't shoot back. Patience will usually improve your gunnery.
It is my belief that the "shoot on the first pass" mindset is what often leads to the things players complain about most, such as HOs, collisions, long extensions ("running away") due to lost E advantage, etc. Coming into a fight expecting to NOT shoot on the first merge (especially when it is not necessary under the circumstances) can lead to much more interesting fights, fewer HO's and greater survivability.
<S>
KP
p.s. I don't think lag played a factor in the outcome of the fight, just the fact that the hit registered a few second later (which is normal). It was just a tough situation to read visually, which is where the anticipation factor and thinking about your options (part of SA) can help.