Author Topic: Interesting read on 38  (Read 7903 times)

Online Shuffler

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Re: Interesting read on 38
« Reply #30 on: August 19, 2019, 12:51:30 PM »
I threw some ideas out off the top of my head hoping that it would get others to think of their own ideas.

I believe that if we want to come up with a solution we throw out our ideas, which make other people think of other ideas which they throw out there which makes other people think of ideas etc.

I never said my ideas were going to be any good. My goal was to get others to think instead of complain.

I could care less if you say all my ideas suck, but, if you do, please sprinkle a little of your genius ideas in here instead of just beaching.

Wrong thread.
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Offline drgondog

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Re: Interesting read on 38
« Reply #31 on: August 20, 2019, 06:28:51 AM »
Why the P-38 Flunked in Europe (Robert F. Dorr)

Celebrated as one of the Pacific War’s best fighters, Lockheed’s Lightning earned a less-than enviable reputation in European air combat.
The American fighter pilot spotted two indistinct shapes cutting diagonally across a road just slightly above and in front of him. They were blemishes in motion. Twelve o’clock high, he thought. He rechecked his armament switches, rammed his throttles to full power and went down low, as low as he dared, hugging the treetops. The afternoon shadow of his P-38 Lightning raced across French hedgerows and fields as the pilot sought to identify the other two aircraft. He wanted them to be Focke-Wulf Fw-190s, falling nicely into the crosshairs of his nose-mounted 20mm cannon and four .50-caliber machine guns.

Captain Robin Olds kicked left rudder, slid his pipper across the nearest plane’s left wing and, in an instant of epiphany, saw the Iron Cross painted on the rear fuselage. Until that instant, he hadn’t been certain the planes were German. Olds shot down one of the Fw-190s moments later, then followed the second into a violent left break, fired and watched the pilot bail out. It was August 14, 1944, and Olds had just used his P-38 Lightning to rack up the first two of his eventual 13 World War II aerial victories.
 

https://www.historynet.com/p-38-flunked-europe.htm

Perhaps an interesting historical note. My father Bert Marshall, Jr was 354SF/355FG CO who witnessed Old's second victory and noted that he was alone.  He recognized the P-38 as 479th FG. When he landed He put in a call to the 479th to note what he had seen to Zemke - and that is how Robin was credited with both kills that day. For some reason Old's combat film didn't work or was inconclusive.
Nicholas Boileau "Honor is like an island, rugged and without shores; once we have left it, we can never return"

Offline drgondog

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Re: Interesting read on 38
« Reply #32 on: August 20, 2019, 07:34:45 AM »
Ah, the great debate P-38H/J vs P-51B in ETO.

Points: The P-38H and early J w/o LE wing tanks had about the same range as the P-51B w/o 85 gal fuse tanks so the range was about equal. The P-38H/J until post J-15 was plagued by turbo, overcooling radiator and operational procedures imposed by 8th AF against recommendations by both Lockheed and Allison related directly from entering combat at low(er) cruise speeds, and spooling up by ramming throttles rather than change RPM, then boost. The cockpit arrangements for fuel tank selection and overall twin engine controls complexity plus terrible heating in the cockpit rendered reaction times in a crisis to be a major issue. All major issues relating to mission aborts and losses. The P-38 effectiveness as a function of operational fighters at the IP was very low.  As an unintended consequence it had a unique and distinctive disadvantage as being immediately identifiable due to size and plan form by LW - leaving German pilots the option of fight or 'move along'. Last and mentioned before was the compressibility/pitch down issue resulting from dives at altitudes above 20K - rendering them helpless to chase or evade in the dive.

As  noted above the P-38 was useful primarily as a scarecrow in ETO operations for the 8th AF until the J-15 arrived - not as a major destroyer of LW s/e fighters and pilots. 

Comments have been made that the P-38 'broke the back of the LW'. Ditto the P-47.  The LW began significant force migrations of experienced squadrons and pilots from both Ost and Sud fronts in late summer 1943 - peaking May 1944.  The point is that the LW forces opposing the 8th AF were primarily  LuftFlotte 3 with JG 26 and JG 2 plus JG 11 in western GY. Between late August 1943 and early May the LW moved 30+ staffeln to the daylight defense of Germany.

Prior to the first combat sortie of the 354th FG P-51B on December 1, 1943 the 20th/55th scored 24, Mustangs 0; Thereafter Dec/Jan/Feb P-38s scored 69.5, Mustangs 141.5; Mar/Apr P-38s scored 49, Mustangs 590; May P-38s (including all 9th AF operational) 27.5, Mustangs 433.

Evaluate the 'effectiveness' with regards to destroying the LW prior to D-Day? Scarecrow - not Destroyer.

Big Week was mentioned above.  So, with 10 P-47D FGs flying escort, 2 P-38 FGs and 2 P-51 FGs the scores against the LW were 78, 10 and 65 respectively. The P-47D was flying Penetration and Withdrawal while the P-38 and P-51B were flying Target Escort.

Note: when LW attacked Mustang and Lightning escort near the target they had overwhelming (theoretically) numerical superiority over the escorts.

The fighters were turned loose in January so the ability to pursue and destroy did not alter the P-38 effectiveness vs the P-51, it continued to suck.

Victory Credits care of Frank Olynyk and will be published in my new book.

Regards,

Bill Marshall 
« Last Edit: August 20, 2019, 07:45:46 AM by drgondog »
Nicholas Boileau "Honor is like an island, rugged and without shores; once we have left it, we can never return"

Offline drgondog

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Re: Interesting read on 38
« Reply #33 on: August 20, 2019, 08:14:27 AM »
You have the right to be wrong. 

The P-38 was there when it counted.  Without it the strategic bomber offensive would have collapsed.  Your fixation on only the 8th reveals a massive blindspot worthy of note, but hey, don't let facts get in your way!

You may have missed the memo, 8th AF deep penetrations were stopped after October 14th disaster. Didn't return to middle Germany until two P-38 and one P-51B FG were operational for limited target escort. The 15th was just getting started but not significant on the LW ability to oppose the 8th.

The Germans didn't have pilots to throw away.  Every P-38 kill in 1942-43 was worth ten in late-1944.  Hell, the entire Western Front at one point was only defended by a couple hundred German pilots.    Just like the Japanese in the Solomons, the critical battles in 1943 killed Axis pilots that couldn't be replaced. 

Luftflotte 3 was the primary LW force on the Kanal Front and operating quite wll against the P-38 - which had far more losses than Victory credits November 1943 through December 31 1943. They weren't making a dent on the LW effectiveness save forcing the deployment of T/E Zerstroyers further east.  Although the Germans did not produce the necessary experience in new fighter pilots, they were far more successful than the Japanese.  

The Mustang gets too much credit.   The P-38 not enough.    The Jug?  Okay if you wanted to fight over the French coast, but by the time it could finally go anywhere the P-38 had already done the hard part (for a full year before the Jug even showed up, btw) all the while outnumbered, hampered by bad tactics, and forced by the very nature of the endeavor into a steep learning curve.

The P-47C/D was providing target escort into western Germany well before (July Blitz Week) the 55th arrived for operations in the ETO.  It wasn't until the P-38J-10 was being retrofitted with 55 gal LE Tanks (beginning in December 1943) that the 38 could

The Jug was a more dangerous opponent to the 109/190 at bomber altitudes for the reasons I posted above regarding high altitude issue for the P-38H/J. That said, the P-47D-16 w/internal plumbing for external tanks combined with factory external racks as well as the retrofit of same capability in the earlier P-47Ds Did enable escort past Brunswick which, in turn, enabled them to engage more often during the big March-May battles where the P-47D far outscored the P-38 - both in aggregate, in air to air ratios and in sortie ratios - but both were behind the P-51B. The combat radius of the P-47D-16 was 425mi with 2x150 gallon externals.

The conditions in the Pacific were fine for the P-38. Long missions over water at optimal (low) cruise speeds and higher temps at all altitudes enabled the P-38 pilots to set throttle and RPM in advance of target area and most potential combats - and they almost always had an altitude advantage immediately - unlike ETO. Until mid 1944 the P-38 had an immediate advantage of 100mph TAS - unlike the ETO. No real issues in dive/compressibilty - unlike the ETO.  Twin engine reliability over water, but in ETO flying on one engine over Germany was a near death sentence - and for strafing it was a Big target with TWO major vulnerabilities attached to it. The P-38 ratio of ground scores to losses was far below both the P-47 and the P-51.
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Offline hazmatt

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Re: Interesting read on 38
« Reply #34 on: August 20, 2019, 12:29:41 PM »
I think the interesting note to all this is that if our cartoon planes were modeled with the complexity of the real aircraft that there would be a few that suddenly became hanger queens.

Another example would be how difficult the 109 was to take off and land with it's narrow track landing gear.

Offline Vraciu

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Re: Interesting read on 38
« Reply #35 on: August 20, 2019, 07:19:47 PM »
I appreciate the effort put into the discussion by all involved.

Your victory totals lack context.  (“Ninety percent of shark attacks take place in less than three feet of water.”   Gee, no kidding.)   Raw numbers comparisons between three airplane types on a single mission don’t tell you why that happened. 

The P-38 is modestly, if not highly, underrated.   It was there when nobody else was at a time when the LW was ascendant.   It had a very low total loss rate and could range all over Europe when nothing else could come close, and it did so for about a year before the P-47’s disastrous ETO debut.

Deep penetrations or not, for many perilous months the Germans could out-persist the Jug until it had to RTB.   They could not do that to the 38.    It was a pioneering enterprise all around for which far too much blame is rained upon the airplane.   The 8th AF simply never figured out how to use it right while everyone else did—or at least the former took too long to do so.

Every fighter opposed by a P-38, kill or not, was one less going after a bomber.  Scarecrows work.  Escorts were effective, though admittedly improvement was needed.   What was learned by both the 38 and the 47 helped the Mustang groups later.  The P-38 was cutting into the Germans and applying pressure.   They simply could not replace their losses, especially with the Russians adding to the misery.  This alone, a war of attrition, would have seen us victorious without the P-51 or extended range P-47s.

Excepting a handful of Spitfires, for a protracted period of time the 38 was the only airplane in the USAAF that could take the fight to the enemy and be even remotely in the same league.   North Africa, the Med, Italy...Germany itself.   Even at a level slightly above parity, the Germans were losing. 

People who bash this airplane are simply driven by a biased agenda.  Saying the P-38 “suck[ed]” is borderline idiotic.    It’s also the easy way out because it is essentially non-controversial being the common misperception. 

As for considering being easily identified a liability, maybe *you* didn’t get the memo so ask George Preddy to send it over.

Beyond that I have a headache from this.

(I enjoyed reading Bud Fortier’s book.  Bert Marshall was mentioned quite positively as I recall, which I mentioned in another conversation long ago.   Good stuff.)

 

« Last Edit: August 20, 2019, 09:53:25 PM by Vraciu »
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Offline hazmatt

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Re: Interesting read on 38
« Reply #36 on: August 20, 2019, 07:59:27 PM »
Since everyone else has I think I should state my opinion on the 38.

Based on what I've read 1vs1 the Germans did not see to think it was a threat. Mostly from what I've read the overwhelming numbers is what they felt they could not compete against. I don't think it would have mattered if it was the 38, the 47, 51 any other aircraft that would have been the turning point unless the massive numbers where there.

Offline Vraciu

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Re: Interesting read on 38
« Reply #37 on: August 20, 2019, 08:12:29 PM »
And yet many 38 pilots felt it was superior to any German piston once the dive flap arrived. 

The 38's 8th AF kill ratio is also misleading.   The Spitfire, considered by many to be the best pure Allied dogfighter didn't do much beyond parity against the 109 during the Battle of Britain--and scored fewer victories than the Hurricane.   Context is everything.   
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Offline drgondog

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Re: Interesting read on 38
« Reply #38 on: August 21, 2019, 05:46:14 PM »
I appreciate the effort put into the discussion by all involved.

Vraciu - I appreciate your comments about my father.

Your victory totals lack context.  (“Ninety percent of shark attacks take place in less than three feet of water.”   Gee, no kidding.)   Raw numbers comparisons between three airplane types on a single mission don’t tell you why that happened.

The context perhaps could have been clearer. What I could have said is that the P-38 set records for single day losses in air to air combat against the LW from November through February, had the highest loss rates of 9th and 9th FC and had the lowest effective rates (i.e. a/c dispatched vs a/c that completed a mission) when compared against the P-47 and the P-51.  What is remarkable is the P-51B first entered combat operations in December 1943, 18 months after the P-38, had bugs that most new new fighter entries had due to terrible Material Command vetting processes, but Still out performed the two P-38 FGs in the ETO which had both a pilot and operational experience advantage.

So, The mission was "To Destroy the LW in the air and the ground" - which at least puts in context a definition of 'operational effectiveness as declared by the CO of the 8th AF. I didn't mention aircraft destroyed on the ground but for both important metrics, the ratio of destroyed to a/c lost to airfield strafing and the number destroyed,  the Mustang was Far superior - and statistically superior to the P-47D

So, what did you have in mind regarding context?


The P-38 is modestly, if not highly, underrated.   It was there when nobody else was at a time when the LW was ascendant.   It had a very low total loss rate and could range all over Europe when nothing else could come close, and it did so for about a year before the P-47’s disastrous ETO debut.

You may have missed the Mustang I/IA operations which began in operations in spring or 1942 and fighting the LW for months before the 1st and 14th even got to England? Further, their superior performance at low/middle altitude - better than the P-38E/F/G/J gave them even footing against the Fw 190. You may have missed that they were flying to Germany and Denmark when the early P-38 experience went no further than Paris at not very happy 'exchange rates' vs the LW

Deep penetrations or not, for many perilous months the Germans could out-persist the Jug until it had to RTB.   They could not do that to the 38.    It was a pioneering enterprise all around for which far too much blame is rained upon the airplane.   The 8th AF simply never figured out how to use it right while everyone else did—or at least the former took too long to do so.

Vraciu - the missions the 55th and 20th flew did reach Bremen versus P-47D w/108 gallon tanks turning back 75 mies earlier, but remember the P-38H didn't have LE fuel tanks and were too few and too easy to fight to be very effective at target support. That said, the P-38 in equal number to the P-47C/C WOULD have been more effective.

Every fighter opposed by a P-38, kill or not, was one less going after a bomber.  Scarecrows work.  Escorts were effective, though admittedly improvement was needed.   What was learned by both the 38 and the 47 helped the Mustang groups later.  The P-38 was cutting into the Germans and applying pressure.   They simply could not replace their losses, especially with the Russians adding to the misery.  This alone, a war of attrition, would have seen us victorious without the P-51 or extended range P-47s.

Good points - but the two best Mustang FGs (ALL in - every theatre) NEVER flew a combat mission in the P-38 or the P-47 (or the P-39s they trained in). The 354th, had they not been saddled with P-47s for a couple of high scoring ETO months Nov/Dec/Jan and Mid Fed would have been the top FG in AAF, topping 56th and 475th. The 357th was 3rd in A to A for all of ETO and MTO and specifically more than all the top P38 FG that started ops in 1942, two years earlier.

The statistics I presented to you were solely air to air VC extracted from my database and Frank Olynyk's which are the USAF official VC tallies.  They are extremely revealing to the relative performance of the P-38 and crews in the most demanding high threat environment for AAF during WWII.  I'm not picking on the P-38. In the vernacular - "it is what it is". The airplane was versatile, great 1938 design, very well improved, always limited by the wing and T/E complexity as well as the Allison/GE system combo. It was expensive to buy, 2x to operate, 2x to maintain. - But IT was Not a great ETO escort fighter. Period.


Excepting a handful of Spitfires, for a protracted period of time the 38 was the only airplane in the USAAF that could take the fight to the enemy and be even remotely in the same league.   North Africa, the Med, Italy...Germany itself.   Even at a level slightly above parity, the Germans were losing. 

See above for Army Co-Operation Command deployment for the Mustang in early 1942 through EOW - long before the P-38 was flying ops over Germany.

People who bash this airplane are simply driven by a biased agenda.  Saying the P-38 “suck[ed]” is borderline idiotic.    It’s also the easy way out because it is essentially non-controversial being the common misperception. 

Actually I apologize for saying it sucked - because clearly it 'didn't' - but the debate was ETO and for that argument, it was 'deficient' compared to the P-51B.

As for considering being easily identified a liability, maybe *you* didn’t get the memo so ask George Preddy to send it over.

Beyond that I have a headache from this.

(I enjoyed reading Bud Fortier’s book.  Bert Marshall was mentioned quite positively as I recall, which I mentioned in another conversation long ago.   Good stuff.)

Everybody that flew with dad went out of their way to tell me how much they though of him - both as a fighter pilot and as a leader of men.  He went from #4 in flight four to squadron ops officer in 10 days - scored on on a Ju 87 on day 1 and made ace faster than anybody in the 355th FG (59 days later), was a Major for a month and ran both the 354th FS and Dpty Gp CO responsibilities for six weeks and ended up commanding the 355th at the end of the war. I was the luckiest son to ever live.

Headache duly noted - I had the same experience during a long running debate with Bodie over the same topic, specifically the ETO. Whether you fit in the category, the legion of P-38 apologists always play 'what if' instead of 'stick with the facts, just the facts, ma'am".

It just wasn't a very good escort in the context of expectations in the ETO. Published fact from both command observations and historical perspectives.
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Offline Vraciu

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Re: Interesting read on 38
« Reply #39 on: August 21, 2019, 06:11:25 PM »
Headache duly noted - I had the same experience during a long running debate with Bodie over the same topic, specifically the ETO. Whether you fit in the category, the legion of P-38 apologists always play 'what if' instead of 'stick with the facts, just the facts, ma'am".

It just wasn't a very good escort in the context of expectations in the ETO. Published fact from both command observations and historical perspectives.

You’re making it hard to reply to your points because they’re in line with mine but I’ll try.   

Yes, based on what was expected it didn’t live up to its potential early on.  Some of this was doctrinal, some was driven by operational errors (like high RPM, low MP cruising which turned the oil into sludge due to low temps—the reasons for this are manifold, pun intended).

The context in regard to aerial victories depends on circumstances.   It doesn’t require a kill to be a success.  Based on dim memories I note the following points:

- P-38 employment and utility differed between the 8th and 9th AFs with the latter being much more successful.   This points to factors other than just the airplane itself.

- The P-51 with the 8th AF ranged ahead of the formations while the P-38s remained at altitude.  This will affect kill totals on a mission by mission comparison basis.   The Mustangs had a longer leash than the Lightning’s did.

- Before the Mustang arrived the P-38 had already stymied the LW.   Galland himself admitted as much.   The fact that the Me-110 was no longer viable was a massive win for the Americans.   Loss rates went from 20-percent to less than five BEFORE the Mustang arrived.   The P-38 had such an impact that German night fighters were being deployed to day operations which had the ancillary effect of helping the British loss rate. 

(Also 650 bombers escorted to Bremen ?? by P-38s without loss—or no more than about five—long before Mustangs arrived showed it could do the job.   This was not a fluke and was repeated more than once.)

- The MTO units involved in escort duties outperformed their 8th counterparts in the same role.   They also beat MTO-based Mustang and Jug units overall throughout.    One squadron that switched from then 38 to the 51 saw no increase in success. 

- The P-38 flew a fraction of the total ETO sorties compared to the P-47 and P-51 but did so at the peak of German opposition. 

At the end of the day, the P-38 was not fully-developed until 1944 by which time the P-51 and P-47 had come along with similar performance.   Someone stated it best on another site: An airplane that would have been a world-beater in 1942 and 1943 became an also-ran in 1944-45.   

I can’t help but think the crash of the prototype on a publicity stunt was the difference between these two outcomes, but that’s an emotional response. 

I had some other thoughts but they escape me.   I’ll throw them in later.   Not an apologist, just don’t like people ganging up unfairly on anyone or anything especially without the proper context.    The more people bash the P-38 the more I like it.   
« Last Edit: August 21, 2019, 08:09:07 PM by Vraciu »
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Offline Oldman731

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Re: Interesting read on 38
« Reply #40 on: August 21, 2019, 10:43:14 PM »
Before the Mustang arrived the P-38 had already stymied the LW.   Galland himself admitted as much.   


I expect we will not get a reference for this remarkable conclusion.

Drgondog, salute to you for your fine analysis of P-51 and its operational history.  Many of us have followed it for years.  And we all admire your father (although many of us will contest your statement that he was the best father anyone could have!).  But give it up here; you will not get the last word.

- oldman

Offline Devil 505

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Re: Interesting read on 38
« Reply #41 on: August 21, 2019, 11:06:48 PM »

- The MTO units involved in escort duties outperformed their 8th counterparts in the same role.   They also beat MTO-based Mustang and Jug units overall throughout.    One squadron that switched from then 38 to the 51 saw no increase in success. 


Which squadron, of which fighter group, of which air force? Also when did they convert to the P-51?

How did the other P-38 squads in their group fare after converting to the P-51? Likewise, the other P-38 squadrons in their air force.

Point being: you're drawing conclusions based on 1/3rd of the experience of a single fighter group and 1/6 or less of an entire air force. That's flimsy logic at best.

Furthermore, the time of transition and which air force this squadron belongs to matters because, for example, if it were in the 15th AF in spring 1944 then it's chances of encounter Luftwaffe fighters would decrease significantly based on the lack of fighters stationed in central Italy. May have been no more more than 6 total squads of German fighters of "on paper" strength at the time. Most German fighter units moved to northern Italy or out of Italy all together.

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Offline Vraciu

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Re: Interesting read on 38
« Reply #42 on: August 21, 2019, 11:11:22 PM »
Using the exact same logic as everyone here.   

You cannot make a blanket statement that the P-38 was inferior to the Mustang just because the 8th AF alone had trouble with it. 

Don’t lecture me about statistics.   I used to do that for a living.   Why do you think I am objecting to the knee jerk 38 bashing?   Because it’s based on broad strokes purely devoid of context to explain them—nevermind ignoring contradictory evidence. 

(Also, off the top of my head I think the 479th went from the P-38 to the P-51 with no change in their performance.   I will have to check on that though as it may have been someone else.)

MTO Lightning’s were in the fight from basically day one (North Africa) of the 38’s full scale entry into the fight against the Germans and they outperformed (and outscored) fellow 47 and 51 units (combined) throughout the war.   The top scoring P-38 outfit in the MTO would have ranked in the top five-ish in the ETO, AHEAD of just about every 47, 51, and Spitfire equipped group.    The same context you’ll use to negate this achievement is the same one I’ll use to defend the airplane in the 8th.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2019, 11:53:06 PM by Vraciu »
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Offline Vraciu

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Re: Interesting read on 38
« Reply #43 on: August 21, 2019, 11:13:02 PM »

I expect we will not get a reference for this remarkable conclusion.

Drgondog, salute to you for your fine analysis of P-51 and its operational history.  Many of us have followed it for years.  And we all admire your father (although many of us will contest your statement that he was the best father anyone could have!).  But give it up here; you will not get the last word.

- oldman

You ever read “The First and the Last”?   Start there.   I read it the first time in eighth grade some 35+ years ago.   Otherwise, the internet has this marvelous search engine feature.   Go get ‘em, Tiger.    :aok

As for his research, even D-dog is admitting I am making valid points (without getting butthurt smartass over it, to boot). But again, don’t let facts mess up your narrative or interfere with your ill-informed anti-Lightning bias! 
« Last Edit: August 21, 2019, 11:27:00 PM by Vraciu »
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Offline Vraciu

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Re: Interesting read on 38
« Reply #44 on: August 21, 2019, 11:31:04 PM »
“[Through the first 10 months of 1943] 8AF bomber losses averaged 9 percent a
month.  Once long-range escorts began acompanying the bombers in November, the
figured dropped to 3 percent.”

(Schweinfurt was 25% with short-legged Jug escorts.)

As the source notes, it wasn’t because the P-38 was an uberfighter, it was simply there, and that presence had an impact.

Even Hap Arnold praised the work of the P-38 and spoke with disdain regarding the performance of the P-47.

The LW was stymied in December of 1943 per Galland’s admission.  Their efforts to stop the bombers had failed.  Not even a Big Week could save them.   With an American airplane rolling off the assembly line every 18 seconds they were swamped. 
« Last Edit: August 21, 2019, 11:33:09 PM by Vraciu »
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