Dark Man Cometh???

[Brooke]

I hope you also have glasses with good eye protection.

I think that it is highly less likely to get infected via ocular routes compared to inhalation unless someone sneezes or coughs into your face.  The virus seems to need ACE2 receptors to infect.  I don't think that the sclera has those.  The membranes in the eyelid or corners of the eye might.  Also, with a big enough dose of virus to the eye, you could possibly ingest it via the tear duct.  But the lungs have vastly more cells, surface area, and ACE2 receptors; and the operation of the lungs passes vastly larger volumes of air past those cells than pass over the eyes and its membranes.

Some viruses can infect via ocular routes (Ebola, for example), but some can't or are very inefficient infecting through that route.

[DREDIOCK]

Why this Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery: 'We're going to be fine'
Michael Levitt, a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist, began analyzing the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide in January and correctly calculated that China would get through the worst of its coronavirus outbreak long before many health experts had predicted.

Now he foresees a similar outcome in the United States and the rest of the world.

While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply don't support such a dire scenario — especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place.

"What we need is to control the panic," he said. In the grand scheme, "we're going to be fine."

Full article here

https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-nobel-laureate-predicts-quicker-210318391.html

[Brooke]

Personally I think that for average ventures into the out doors i think you are going a bit overboard.

I would agree with you if I were advocating those steps for average ventures outdoors.

But I'm not.

Those are the steps for going into a doctor's office or medical center that has sick people going through it.

For outdoors or a walk around the neighborhood, we go out as normal, kick the ball around with my girls or ride bikes, and come back inside.

[Brooke]

I, too, think that the human race will be fine.

But I think that there is now and is going to continue to be a lot of economic disruption.

I don't think all of it is due to SARS-2.  In my opinion, the world financial systems transitioned into bizarro world after 2008.  I feel that a big correction would happen at some point with or without SARS-2.  Sort of like how snow builds up to the point of an avalanche, which can be triggered by an explosion, or at some point even without that, by a single skier gliding past.

But who knows.  If I were 100% sure, I'd have put all my money into levered shorts or vix calls.

I've felt for years that there would be big deflationary crash, followed by previously unfathomable government printing of money, followed by . . . inflation?  continued deflation?  Depends how much governments print.

For years, I've obviously been wrong.  And even if I am eventually right, am I just the broken clock that is right twice a day?

[DREDIOCK]

I would agree with you if I were advocating those steps for average ventures outdoors.

But I'm not.

Those are the steps for going into a doctor's office or medical center that has sick people going through it.

For outdoors or a walk around the neighborhood, we go out as normal, kick the ball around with my girls or ride bikes, and come back inside.

Ok. Makes sense. I misinterpreted what you were saying

[DREDIOCK]

I, too, think that the human race will be fine.

But I think that there is now and is going to continue to be a lot of economic disruption.

I don't think all of it is due to SARS-2.  In my opinion, the world financial systems transitioned into bizarro world after 2008.  I feel that a big correction would happen at some point with or without SARS-2.  Sort of like how snow builds up to the point of an avalanche, which can be triggered by an explosion, or at some point even without that, by a single skier gliding past.

But who knows.  If I were 100% sure, I'd have put all my money into levered shorts or vix calls.

I've felt for years that there would be big deflationary crash, followed by previously unfathomable government printing of money, followed by . . . inflation?  continued deflation?  Depends how much governments print.

For years, I've obviously been wrong.  And even if I am eventually right, am I just the broken clock that is right twice a day?

I've been waiting for this correction to take place for 2 1/2 years now to take advantage of it.
Using the Buffet rule of Sell on greed Buy on panic. I see crashes as things going on sale
Its just the stocks that declined weren't the ones I thought would but did in light of the current situation.
However I do see  long term opportunity here on stocks you just know are going to recover long term.
Carnival Cruise lines ( CCL) is understandably down to around $12 a share from $51 a share in Jan. And is well well WELL below its historical average.  It seems to have found its bottom. It also has a nice little dividend. So I am going to give it another week or so then if it remains relatively stable I'm going to throw a little money at it.
The Cruise line industry will recover.
Disney (Dis) at about $86 a share is another that is down by about 40% since January and is well below its average.
The entertainment industry no way is going out of business
I've taken some minor losses on paper over this but nothing that wont rebound but  a few I am still ahead of the game such as AMD which I picked up at $11.94 and Bank Of America that I got when it was $12. though I should have at least sold my initial investment when it dropped to $25. I Still may and use that money for CCL. Or I can just sit on it. that bank isn't going anywhere long term
the way I see it. is if this bug is going to inconvenience me. I want to see if I can take advantage of it.

[CptTrips]

I, too, think that the human race will be fine.

Yeah.  Humans are like cockroaches.  It's hard to wipe them out completely and for good.

But I think that there is now and is going to continue to be a lot of economic disruption.

Oh. Yeah.  Like I mentioned before, I knew something was going to happen at some point and started converting to cash since 2015.  I've been all cash since late 2017.  I never conceived it would be a mega pandemic, but it doesn't matter.  It was always going to be something. Regional Mid-East war.  Bernie Sanders getting elected. Collapse of a over-leveraged large financial corporation.   The whole thing was one of those Jenga towers, tilting, trembling, just dying to collapse and Wallstreet and the Fed like drunks around the table laughing and stacking on more blocks because it's magical and will go on forever.

I don't think all of it is due to SARS-2.  In my opinion, the world financial systems transitioned into bizarro world after 2008. 

The best analogy I read was the market was a troupe of drunken jugglers performing with flaming torches surrounded by open barrels filled with dynamite.  There was no need to predict exactly which juggler would drop exactly which flaming torch, into exactly which barrel of explosives to know that the entire situation was destined for disaster.

So the CoronaVirus torch gets dropped into a barrel of explosives in a Chinese Wet Market.  Boom.  And they'll all moan "this isn't our fault.  No one could ever have foreseen this chain of events."

I've felt for years that there would be big deflationary crash, followed by previously unfathomable government printing of money, followed by . . . inflation?  continued deflation?  Depends how much governments print.

Well, you know there is another way to get inflation other than printing more money.  Inflation is the effect when you have too much money in circulation relative to the available goods and services.  Money loses value because there is more of it than stuff to spend it on so you have to use more of it to buy the same stuff. 

You can reach that state from over printing.  You can also reach that state by losing goods and services.  Like when a pandemic forces you to shut down business for a year.  Even if you don't print another  dollar, you could end up with too much money already in circulation chasing a now much smaller pool of goods and services.

Give you the creeps?  OK, traditionally the Fed fights runaway inflation by raising the rates to put the brakes on.  (Brutally if necessary like Paul Volcker did.)  But now they can't because it would explode the national debt interest and bankrupt the country.

But if the business system is shattered and we are in a depression, how can we also have runaway inflation you ask?  Happen to remember Stagflation?  Think early 1970's Stagflation and multiply it by...hmmmm. 100x. Or post WWI Germany.

Fudge....I should have bought more ammo.

 
Oh, and QAnon predicted all this. 

 

[guncrasher]

nostradamus predicted that qanon would predict this.

heck about 10 years ago there was a thread here that people were stocking up on supplies just in case of this happening.


semp

[Brooke]

heck about 10 years ago there was a thread here that people were stocking up on supplies just in case of this happening.

Semp, you are so reactionary!  It was only 5 years ago!   

I vaguely remember, because I was posting the laziest man's way of having emergency food.  (Sealed mylar bags of beans and rice, with an oxygen absorber pack put in before sealing the mylar.  Will last for more than 30 years.  Rice and beans together make a complete protein, so you can live off of it.  5 gal bucket worth is a man-month of calories.  And for water, a Sawyer Products filter for $20.)

For me, it wasn't an epidemic that caused me to look into it.  It was in case of EMP or Carrington Event.  Both extremely low odds, in my view, but with extremely dire consequences if they happened.  I figured that, if I could do some preparation for a minor amount of work and cost, then I'd go for it.

[Brooke]

However I do see  long term opportunity here on stocks you just know are going to recover long term.
Carnival Cruise lines ( CCL) is understandably down to around $12 a share from $51 a share in Jan. And is well well WELL below its historical average.

I totally hear you.

However, it is possible for some companies to go to zero before the bottom is hit.

One example.  Peabody Energy, founded in 1883, was the largest coal company in the US and one of the largest in the world.  In 2011, it hit a high of $73/share, a market cap of $20 billion, with revenues of $8 billion/year and EBITDA of $2 billion/year.  Then it got annihilated during the previous administration's anti-coal crusade.  In 2015, it was down to 3 cents/share.  The whole company was worth about $10 million, and doing $billions/year in coal revenue.  I knew that use of coal would not be going to zero any time soon in the world, and I took a shot at buying a little bit as a high-risk play. After less than a year, it went bankrupt and thus a stock price of zero.  It subsequently restructured and relaunched.

[Brooke]

Happen to remember Stagflation?

That is my largest fear:  that the government will land on the one perfect spot where there is not even one asset left that isn't going down.

The government cronies who are being given stupefying mountains of free cash will do great, though.

Unfortunately, I can't buy a shares in Crony Enterprises or in an ETF that tracks the GRAFT Index.

It's the best scam around:  give me lots of free money or I will collapse, and the average Joe will get ruined.  You can use that as the reason to give me lots of cash.  But a better reason is, if you give me lots of free money, you can get a piece of it:  large contributions to your campaign, or a packed schedule of 6-figure speaking fees once you are out of office, or huge money for a book deal, or huge consulting money, or mountains of cash into your "nonprofit", or a board seat for your kid, or a lucrative deal for your relative's business, or the launching of government housing or transportation project on the land that you or your pal happened to buy up for nothing, or a sweetheart sports deal, or a sweetheart energy deal, or a sweetheart real estate deal.

[guncrasher]

Semp, you are so reactionary!  It was only 5 years ago!   

I vaguely remember, because I was posting the laziest man's way of having emergency food.  (Sealed mylar bags of beans and rice, with an oxygen absorber pack put in before sealing the mylar.  Will last for more than 30 years.  Rice and beans together make a complete protein, so you can live off of it.  5 gal bucket worth is a man-month of calories.  And for water, a Sawyer Products filter for $20.)

For me, it wasn't an epidemic that caused me to look into it.  It was in case of EMP or Carrington Event.  Both extremely low odds, in my view, but with extremely dire consequences if they happened.  I figured that, if I could do some preparation for a minor amount of work and cost, then I'd go for it.

that was probably the last, but there's been several. anyway, we and i mean me and my wife have changed the way we shop and cook.

a couple of weeks ago, i bought prepackaged 40 lbs of beef and chicken,  wife was not happy.  but it was 5 bucks a lb. next day on impulse i bought 10 lbs of rice and beans. got a bunch of sopas. and canned vegetables.  wife was surprised, i prefer fresh vegetables and fruit.  not joking next day people made a run for the stores. now me i buy food for 1 week. but 300 bucks and i have enough food for over a month.

today i won't buy fresh fruit or vegetables.  except tomatoes and onions.  people touch them and I'm not taking a risk.  wifey s lungs aren't that good, so she's a high risk.  so all the food i make is fried, boiled or baked. have a few apples and oranges. they also get either blanched or cooked in a little olive oil then mixed with either jellow or whatever I'm cooking.

things are calming down a bit. went to buy beer around 6 and few people at store and shelves are getting fuller.  once people realize stores aren't accepting returns they're getting a bit more careful.


semp

[1stpar3]

Still with us Dutch?
SitRep?

 

Dutchy is my Brother/Squad Mate...as of last communication he is doing OK! As of latest updated...NOT tested, because symptoms were Mild and not Critical enough to induce testing? BETTER BE THE SAME or better as he hasnt told me otherwise  

[icepac]

After my getting the H1N1 a 6 weeks ago of which I had no immunity, my immune system is like.........



I noticed that "The Andromeda Strain" went from free to "buy" in the last few weeks.

If you've seen the movie, you will recognize the sound in this video when new numbers are posted.

[SysError]

After my getting the H1N1 a 6 weeks ago of which I had no immunity, my immune system is like.........

I did not know.  How are you holding up?

Are you extreme isolating?