One Final Try

[whiteman]

I think the numbers speak for themselves, especially the number of players. Even the few of you still coughing up $150/year to fly in empty arenas can’t expect anyone else to buy into the delusion that this game has better features, graphics, gameplay, or community!

Is this the third or fourth shade, I’ve lost track.

[JimmyD3]

Is this the third or fourth shade, I’ve lost track.

I'm waiting for him to announce his new game.

[Joe Orton]

Is this the third or fourth shade, I’ve lost track.

Do you think you can sell your skins to the IL2 guys?

[CptTrips]

Steam 

There are two core requirements to making a sale. 

1.  You have to get your product in front of potential customers.

2.  You have to produce a product the potential customer is willing to pay the asking price for.


Releasing on Steam satisfied the first. 

[CptTrips]

I started this game getting pounced by Muppets, Rolling Thunder, Jokers Jokers, and several other notorious players that did not have squads.  This is nothing new and has little to do with player retention.  In fact when I was busy getting the stuffing beat out me in those early years, ACES High's numbers were growing towards the Titanic Tuesday heyday super player numbers.

I think you are both right.

IMHO, Newbies getting slapped around wasn't nearly as painful back in the day with numbers and fights everywhere that you could get back in  action quickly.

An entire match of Battlefield can be completed in the time it takes now to launch and fly on auto-pilot to where there is a great fight going.  If you can find one.

For those that remain, that is apparently tolerable if not desirable, or else they would have closed their accounts.  On the good side, I think AH has hit a firm bottom on the population.  I don't think many of the remaining dead-enders will quit out of frustration, or else they already would have.  I expect about 20-30 players a year to evaporate off due to illness or the Grim Reaper, not due to choice (tho some will like many of the Pigs).  When I had come back briefly in 2018, numbers were consistently ~180 a night in the Main.  Nowadays, it looks ~120.  That's a gradual glide slope at least, but relentless and will not magically reverse course on it's own.  I see no realistic possibility that the current game, in it's current design, will ever materially increase numbers again.  I can not imagine any scenario that the current game, in it's current design, will get back to say...a dependable 300 players a night.

At some point the surviving population with hit a demographic inflection point where that attrition rate hits a large percentage of the players all at once.  But that might take a couple of more years.
 
Though, if WB finally gives up the ghost, you might win over some of the 8 or 9 players that still fly that.   

[whiteman]

Do you think you can sell your skins to the IL2 guys?

Don't know and not the reason I would do them. I did them 100% for me first, anyone else that likes them or use them is a bonus.

[Monster0]

For those that remain, that is apparently tolerable if not desirable, or else they would have closed their accounts.  On the good side, I think AH has hit a firm bottom on the population.  I don't think many of the remaining dead-enders will quit out of frustration, or else they already would have.  I expect about 20-30 players a year to evaporate off due to illness or the Grim Reaper, not due to choice (tho some will like many of the Pigs).  When I had come back briefly in 2018, numbers were consistently ~180 a night in the Main.  Nowadays, it looks ~120.  That's a gradual glide slope at least, but relentless and will not magically reverse course on it's own.  I see no realistic possibility that the current game, in it's current design, will ever materially increase numbers again.  I can not imagine any scenario that the current game, in it's current design, will get back to say...a dependable 300 players a night.

At some point the surviving population with hit a demographic inflection point where that attrition rate hits a large percentage of the players all at once.  But that might take a couple of more years.
 
Though, if WB finally gives up the ghost, you might win over some of the 8 or 9 players that still fly that.   

Charge a one time fee for the game, get rid of the two week free trail and monthly subscription.

[Eagler]

What would that fee be?

Over the last 20 years I have invested over $3,600 into Aces High

That's quite a few single game purchases you suggest

Eagler

[DmonSlyr]

Charge a one time fee for the game, get rid of the two week free trail and monthly subscription.

Yup. I'm in agreement with this. But hitech is too scared. However we forget that what really matters is players in the game. More players brings more fights and thus more players playing. It's a chain reaction. That amount of money Hitech would make in 2 months off $50 to play forever while still having the 15$ a month free would allow him to buy a commercial and make the game even bigger. Risk reward?

Getting people to subscribe to this game after 2 weeks is very challenging, that's why there is such a big difference in the vets to new players ratio. It's very hard to get people to subscribe after 2 weeks without a quick play arena for them to get into action quickly. I probably wouldn't have stuck around if it wasn't for H2H to be honest because it took forever to find a find some action even back in 2005 with these far flights.

[CptTrips]

Yup. I'm in agreement with this. But hitech is too scared. However we forget that what really matters is players in the game. More players brings more fights and thus more players playing. It's a chain reaction. That amount of money Hitech would make in 2 months off $50 to play forever while still having the 15$ a month free would allow him to buy a commercial and make the game even bigger. Risk reward?

Getting people to subscribe to this game after 2 weeks is very challenging, that's why there is such a big difference in the vets to new players ratio. It's very hard to get people to subscribe after 2 weeks without a quick play arena for them to get into action quickly. I probably wouldn't have stuck around if it wasn't for H2H to be honest because it took forever to find a find some action even back in 2005 with these far flights.

Games like Battlefield and IL2 that sell fixed cost products and then allow permanent online play for free are able to make that successful for two main reasons:

1.  They produce a product of sufficient quality and appealing to a broad enough audience that they can make profit based on volume.  AHIII might have less that 1000 durable users at this pount.  IL2 sells hundreds of thousands (millions?) of copies each release.  Software is a unique profit in that there is very little Cost of Goods Sold.  You just keep copying and reselling it. 

2.  They have a continuous product release cycle.  Each new version gets sold again.  Constant new content, new versions.  You can still play the old game all you want, but there is a trend to always be buying the new version so there is a constant revenue stream to justify and fund new development.

3   Original IL-2 Sturmovik series
3.1   IL-2 Sturmovik
3.2   IL-2 Sturmovik: Forgotten Battles
3.2.1   IL-2 Sturmovik: Forgotten Battles - Ace Expansion Pack
3.2.2   IL-2 Sturmovik: Forgotten Battles - Gold Pack
3.3   Pacific Fighters
3.4   Pe-2 Peshka
3.5   Sturmoviks over Manchuria
3.6   IL-2 Sturmovik: 1946
3.7   IL-2 Sturmovik: Birds of Prey
4   IL-2 Sturmovik: Cliffs of Dover
5   IL-2 Sturmovik: Great Battles
5.1   IL-2 Sturmovik: Battle of Stalingrad
5.2   IL-2 Sturmovik: Battle of Moscow
5.3   IL-2 Sturmovik: Battle of Kuban
5.4   IL-2 Sturmovik: Battle of Bodenplatte
5.5   IL-2 Sturmovik: Battle of Normandy
5.6   IL-2 Sturmovik: Flying Circus
5.7   IL-2 Sturmovik: Tank Crew

Frankly, I don't think HTC can compete with that output cadence. 



Allowing a one time buy of AHIII would certainly cannibalize his already dwindling user base.
I don't think releasing a AH4, AH5, AH6 is possible at a rate to make up the difference by upselling.

What I think would work is to use the previous version as a onramp with a one time purchase  that might generate so development funds and maybe bring in traffic that might could be upsold to AHIII for subscription.  I doubt that would cannibalize AHIII.  If your current game can't compete against one released5-6 years ago, then you should ask what you've been doing for 6 years.  I suggested this a while back:  https://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/index.php/topic,400743.msg5311240.html#msg5311240

You might could lure back some old times to play AHII for old times sake without subscription entanglements.  You could release it on Steam getting another bite at the exposure apple.    You could generate some income to get more work done on AHIII.

Assuming that the source code hasn't been just lost.

[CptTrips]

.

Crap.  Trying to fix a typo.

[CAV]

I think the biggest thing that keeps players away is lack of development by Hitec. Aces High has been stagnant for years, it has been my opinion for some time that HiTec is just trying to suck as much money from us before the game crashes and becomes unrepairable forever.

it's been so long I'd forgotten, how many years ago was it since the last time we got a new tank or plane????


CAV

[Lusche]

it's been so long I'd forgotten, how many years ago was it since the last time we got a new tank or plane????

92 months ago, Tour 168, Tu-2.

[CptTrips]

92 months ago, Tour 168, Tu-2.

Does anyone happen to remember the final date at which HTC admitted that Tour of Duty had been placed on indefinite hold?

Thanks

[Lusche]

Does anyone happen to remember the final date at which HTC admitted that Tour of Duty had been placed on indefinite hold?

Thanks

October 28th, 2008